SMM August 11 news: The ADP and non-farm payrolls data in the US fell significantly short of expectations, and the US labour market weakened, causing the market to lower its expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. After an earlier deep correction in the precious metals market, a certain amount of short positions had accumulated; when the market turned a corner, this triggered concentrated short covering. Meanwhile, gold ETFs saw fund inflows, and investment buying was active on China’s futures market. This round of gains was driven more by financial attributes and derivatives-related funds, while the physical side failed to provide a simultaneous boost. In addition, central banks around the world continued to allocate to gold assets, and the PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 21st consecutive month, building medium and long-term bottom support for gold prices. A confluence of factors pushed precious metals futures prices higher. As of around 13:27 on August 11, COMEX gold extended gains into a third straight session, up 0.89% at $4,459/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold futures extended gains for another session, up 1.887% to 961.86 yuan/g; COMEX silver extended gains into a third straight session, up 0.39% at $65.525/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver futures extended gains for the sixth straight session, up 3.08% to 16,069 yuan/kg; silver T+D extended gains for the sixth straight session, up 1.98% to 15,860 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum futures extended gains for a second session, up 0.59% to 437 yuan/g, and the most-traded palladium futures extended gains for the fifth straight session, up 1.92% to 331.05 yuan/g. Currently, the market is focused on US July CPI data, and uncertainties remain for precious metals. With futures prices continuing to rise, what are institutions’ views on the outlook for precious metals? Spot Market Silver On August 11, the SMM #1 silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 16,123.5 yuan/kg, up 4.63% from the previous trading day. The continuous rise in silver prices continued to suppress downstream industrial demand, with buyers mostly adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The price spread narrowed today, traders lowered their offer prices, and some suppliers chose to sell at discounts to move inventory. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly concentrated between TD-5 and +5 yuan/kg. Reduced purchases by banking institutions weakened the floor support, and only some acceptance demand led to necessary deals, with the overall market leaning toward parity or a slight discount. In Shenzhen, some nationally standardized supplies were concentrated around slight discounts, with both buyers and sellers remaining cautious. Today, market premiums for the most-traded SHFE 2610 contract were quoted at a discount of 65 to 55 yuan/kg. Overall, precious metals drifted higher today, driven by bullish factors and buying. Spot market, after silver prices rose, selling pressure mounted, and transactions gradually shifted to discounts. Platinum On August 11, the average spot price of platinum was 432 yuan/g, up 0.23% from the previous trading day. Mainstream platinum quotations were at discounts of 3.5 yuan/g to 2.5 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, with a wide disparity in quotations. Downstream consumption remained relatively weak, dominated by just-in-time procurement. The discount on mainstream quotations was basically flat with yesterday. Due to consecutive futures gains, some unhedged goods were offered at lower prices in the market. Today, overall consumption in the platinum spot market remained sluggish. Voices Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions are more optimistic, while others are more cautious. The views of several institutions are as follows: Chaos Tiancheng Futures believes: Precious metals moved in tandem with US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and oil prices on Monday, reflecting their gradual pricing in of long-term drivers such as debt credit risk, while the increasing possibility of "stagflation" further supported the market. The long-term driver, US Treasury credit, showed some intensification, as the US debt scale further exceeded $40 trillion last week and the US July deficit rate deteriorated, with the twin worries over debt and deficit driving precious metals higher. This week, accompanied by the re-emergence of the "commodity currency logic," precious metals again showed relative strength, while US Treasuries saw some "selling" – the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 4.7%, and precious metals also moved higher in tandem with Treasury yields. From the perspective of capital and fundamental resonance, market positioning sentiment and central bank gold purchases provided bottom support. The underlying logic of global central banks' continuous normalization of gold purchases remained unchanged. The PBOC increased gold holdings for 21 consecutive months, with monthly purchases of about 20 mt, creating sentiment resonance in the market. "Stagflation logic" rose further, boosting precious metals. Last week, US non-farm payrolls data showed negative growth, and the AI narrative still faced negative impacts. Monday's news showed Nvidia collaborating with Wall Street giants to advance an AI infrastructure plan worth $500 billion. This further triggered market interpretation of the AI logic and concerns over debt risks, causing US stocks to decline, and economic expectations decreased compared with earlier periods. The geopolitical situation remained volatile. Iran published a "preliminary plan for the management of the Strait of Hormuz" with very strict conditions, restricting US and Israeli vessels, imposing transport limits on some countries, and possible penalties for rule violations. The rebound in oil prices drove inflation expectations higher, US Treasury yields rebounded, and inflation risks increased. Last week, precious metals saw a sharp rebound in sentiment following a period of significant suppression, with the long-term logic of drifting higher continuing on Monday. Going forward, attention should be paid to USD/JPY exchange rate fluctuations; geopolitical developments and whether this week's US CPI data show breakout momentum to the upside. Relatively speaking, gold’s support is more stable than silver’s, while silver exhibits greater elasticity. Scott Rubner, strategist at Citadel Securities, recommended for the first time in 2026 that investors allocate to structural gold positions, and said the precious metals market is forming “one of the most attractive rally opportunities in months.” Rubner believes that gold and silver are seeing multiple tailwinds at the same time, including a shift in Fed policy expectations, continued central bank gold purchases, quantitative funds remaining in a net short position, bullish signals from the options market, and a possible return of retail funds previously drawn to the AI trading frenzy. In his view, a rare confluence of multiple factors is taking shape, and the precious metals market may enter a new phase of upside. UBS: expects gold prices to rise to $5,000/oz in H1 2027. Gold prices may remain relatively volatile in the near term. Matt Simpson, senior analyst at StoneX, said that improving prospects for peace in the Middle East lowered market inflation expectations, driving gold prices further higher from the weeks-long consolidation range above $4,000. The US Labor Department will release the non-farm payrolls report tonight. Simpson added: “Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level—I suspect the bulls are waiting for a pullback to seize the opportunity and push gold back to $4,600. The non-farm payrolls data may bring some short-term fluctuations, but the price action has already signaled the direction, and gold appears to want to move higher.” World Gold Council: In July, positive momentum factors offset negative risk factors, leaving gold prices flat for the month. Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to the late 1970s cannot be ruled out. However, this does not by itself mean gold will rally significantly; it depends on real interest rates, the US dollar, growth expectations, Asian investor demand, and how central banks respond. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “The link between gold and oil prices remains, because oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation in the (Middle East) situation, gold prices could continue to rise.” (Jinshi Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said that since the beginning of this year, gold prices shot up and then quickly fell, but the bank believes gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical rifts under deglobalization that are hard to heal, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we believe that the current gold price decline is only a temporary correction within a bull market. The current pullback magnitude has approached historical extremes, and the area around $4,000/oz is likely the bottom of this cycle. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from suppressing to boosting, the US Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and combined with the surge in US military spending pushing up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an upward channel within the year. Everbright Futures' outlook for August: Gold's short-term trend depends on the evolution of the US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or spills over and expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform; however, if there is a substantive breakthrough in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and stage a rebound-repair trend, at which point if both domestic and external financial markets show a synchronous recovery, this can be further confirmed. However, it can be expected that, supported by central banks' rigid buying and allocation demand, even if there is another pullback, the room for decline will be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline the medium-term policy framework, and before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key validation indicator. Overall, gold may present a bottom-solidifying and sentiment-repair phase, and we are cautiously optimistic. The core risk lies in the US-Iran conflict again causing oil prices to climb above $90/oz, US inflation data rebounding significantly beyond expectations, and the rising probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of financial markets outside China and oil prices, neither supports a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict. A Reuters survey shows that after gold prices pulled back sharply from the record high in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, but most still expect central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability to provide support. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 is $4,509 per ounce. This figure is lower than $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast price for 2027 is $4,610, compared with $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but in the second quarter, as the Iran war intensified energy inflation and pushed up rate hike expectations, prices suffered a sharp pullback, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jin10 Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and Treasury yields. Oil prices slumped sharply on Monday, easing inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came on the heels of a pause in US-Iran hostilities. The decline in oil also weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and upcoming US inflation data for further cues on the rate outlook. If yields remain suppressed, gold should continue to find support near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could cap further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank cut its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce. It now sees platinum at $2,000 per troy ounce at the end of the year, down from an earlier forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case shows India’s gold imports will stay sluggish in the third quarter, even though the third quarter is historically a seasonal stockpiling peak. The reasons are ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts that are curbing fresh import demand. Nonetheless, Citi kept its 0–3 month short-term gold target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a shift to a less hawkish Fed; numerous short-term risks could still cause gold to test lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a note that physical gold demand and central bank purchases are underpinning the gold market. They added that while prices face short-term headwinds from Fed tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, gold investment positioning looks thin after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, suggesting further downside could be limited. High interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhith Finance) Goldman Sachs said that despite pressure from tighter Fed expectations, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong; the bank estimates central banks bought 81 mt in May, with a three-month average of 67 mt per month, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. “We believe the trend of central banks adding to gold holdings will persist for years as they diversify reserves to hedge against geopolitical and financial risks,” Goldman analysts said. The bank forecasts monthly central bank purchases will average 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jinshi Data APP) Kim Soojin, an analyst at MUFG, said: “Recent price action suggests markets are placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer than on gold’s traditional safe-haven demand.”"This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jin10 Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild the gold positions it reduced earlier this year at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold's long-term drivers remain robust. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, recently said, “We plan to rebuild our gold position; the question is only about timing.” He said that from January to February this year he reduced his gold allocation to neutral, at a time when gold's multi-year bull market suddenly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. Only if “governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks truly commit to pushing inflation back down” would the case for returning to a bull market be undermined, “but I don’t think we are in that world right now.” Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases — a key driver of the previous bull market — will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows: After a deep pullback in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of a bottom, awaiting only event catalysts to drive a rally. It suggests building positions in tranches on dips near $4,000 and avoiding chasing highs. Core allocation logic: First, valuations are at historical lows, offering a notable margin of safety. After the deep pullback in H1, valuations of gold mining companies have dropped significantly from the start of the year to low levels, providing high odds. Going forward, apart from a valuation repair rally, there is potential to also capture the price elasticity from rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity is a significant advantage. Gold stocks act as an amplifier of gold prices — mining costs are rigid, so higher gold prices translate directly into profit growth, and earnings elasticity far exceeds the gold price increase itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: Over the medium term, the market's core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of “inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → prolonged period of high Fed rates → repeated flare-ups of rate hike expectations within the year.” Gold’s pricing anchor remains dominated by real US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and the overall market is likely to continue consolidating on a subdued note. Currently, Middle East ceasefire negotiations are mired in repeated wrangling, with the two sides holding significant differences on core demands such as withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility verification mechanisms, and control over the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane as well as transit fee rules. The recurrent nature of geopolitical conflicts continues to unsettle global crude oil supply expectations, and upside risks to energy prices could further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the Fed’s tightening stance. Meanwhile, the concurrent rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields is creating a double drag, and with gold’s safe-haven attribute temporarily giving way to interest-rate pricing logic, upside room for gold prices is likely to remain constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the Fed's interest rate decision to be released on July 30; 3) the US PCE for June to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold's bullish logic has not weakened but rather strengthened amid shifts in global macro and geopolitical landscapes. 1) Constraints from US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-power rivalry are undermining the stability of the dollar's credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into a key asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks from the restructuring of the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks are still providing solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC's sustained purchases further validate the official sector's long-term allocation demand. 3) The late stage of the US economic cycle faces multiple constraints from high interest rates, credit contraction, and slowing growth. Looking ahead, whether the Fed cuts interest rates due to economic slowdown or is forced to maintain high rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold holds strong long-term allocation value: the former supports a decline in real interest rates, while the latter reinforces demand for safe-haven and credit-risk hedging. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window over the medium and long term, with its price center expected to continue moving higher amid the reshaping of global macro and geopolitical landscapes. Recommended reading:

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,122.5/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $14,069/mt, then the price center gradually moved up to test $14,177/mt, and subsequently drifted lower again to close at $14,120/mt, up 0.7%, with trading volume of 15,000 lots and open interest of 259,000 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots from the previous session, represented by bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,850 yuan/mt, drifted lower in early trading to test 107,450 yuan/mt, then the price center moved up sharply to touch 108,060 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 107,790 yuan/mt, up 0.16%, with trading volume of 27,400 lots and open interest of 212,000 lots, a decrease of 2,287 lots from the previous session, represented by bears reducing positions.

SMM, Aug 11 – Overnight, LME copper opened at $14,122.5/mt, drifted lower in early trading to touch a low of $14,069/mt, then the copper price center gradually moved up to hit $14,177/mt, subsequently drifted lower again to finally settle at $14,120/mt, up 0.7%. Trading volume reached 15,000 lots, and open interest stood at 259,000 lots, up 1,164 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long accumulation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 107,850 yuan/mt, drifted lower in early trading to dip to 107,450 yuan/mt, then the copper price center moved up sharply to touch a high of 108,060 yuan/mt, eventually closing at 107,790 yuan/mt, up 0.16%. Trading volume reached 27,400 lots, and open interest stood at 212,000 lots, down 2,287 lots from the prior trading day, reflecting short covering. On the macro front, US Fed official Hammack said multiple rate hikes may be needed to bring down inflation, and Trump denied frequent calls with Warsh. In the Middle East, Iran discussed establishing safe shipping routes with Oman, with no transit fees involved; as Iran raised the issue of war compensation, Trump also said he would claim compensation and incorporate it into negotiations; Iran’s supreme leader made new personnel appointments, and Trump claimed the US military actually controls the Strait of Hormuz and has cleared mines. Overall, while the Middle East conflict has been recurring, expectations for rate hikes have diminished somewhat, providing some bullish support for copper prices. On the fundamental side, the supply end was affected by a typhoon, which reduced cargo flow efficiency, with high-quality copper being scarce while non-registered copper was relatively ample, leaving overall supply tight but with clear structural divergence among brands; the demand side was subdued by high copper prices, depressing downstream purchases, and overall performance remained weak. The supply-demand weakness persisted. On the inventory side, as of Monday, August 10, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China declined by 900 mt WoW to 118,000 mt, with total inventories down 13,600 mt from 131,600 mt a year earlier. In summary, copper prices are expected to drift higher today.

Valterra Platinum’s first half of 2026 was shaped more by market prices than by production growth. Earnings increased fourfold to R33.4 billion, while metal production from its mines rose only modestly. The difference was driven by stronger PGM prices and the release of previously processed metal from the company’s pipeline. Amandelbult’s recovery was a major contributor to the improvement, while China became a significantly larger market.

SMM, August 5: Expectations for Middle East geopolitics are shifting toward easing, oil prices have pulled back sharply for two consecutive trading days, and market concerns about inflation have cooled. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September have pulled back, with multiple positive factors resonating to drive precious metals futures and stocks to strengthen together. In the futures market: As of around 17:12 on August 5, COMEX gold was up 1.7% at $4,223.1/oz; SHFE gold main contract was up 3.1% at 910.4 yuan/g; COMEX silver was up 2.53% at $61.77/oz; SHFE silver main contract was up 7.08% at 15,105 yuan/kg; silver T+D was up 5.8% at 14,988 yuan/kg. Platinum main contract futures were up 9.18% at 441.15 yuan/g; palladium main contract futures were up 8.51% at 329.65 yuan/g. In the stock market: As of market close on August 5, the precious metals sector was up 7.87%. In individual stocks: Sengda Resources and Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit up, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shanjin International were among the top gainers. News [South Korea's Central Bank Plans to Purchase Domestically Refined Gold Bars for the First Time in 13 Years] According to South Korean media reports, the Bank of Korea said on Monday that it will cooperate with LS MnM, the Korea Exchange (KRX), and the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years through over-the-counter transactions, as heightened geopolitical risks have increased the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves. LS MnM and Korea Zinc produce about 40 to 45 mt of gold annually as a by-product of smelting, of which about 10% is exported. The central bank stated that if relevant enterprises apply, it will consider using the trading and settlement system of the KRX and the storage facilities being prepared by the KSD to purchase some of the gold intended for export. The central bank said it will arrange bulk transactions after prior consultations on price and quantity to limit the impact on domestic gold prices, and that the new channel should reduce foreign exchange risks, since previous overseas purchases were all paid in US dollars. Additionally, the central bank also stated that it purchased a small amount of gold ETFs in Q2. Separately, it was reported that as of July, its gold holdings remained unchanged at 104.4 mt, while South Korea's foreign exchange reserves at the end of June stood at $427.36 billion, including gold reserves worth $4.79 billion. [World Gold Council: Gold Investment Demand Expected to Remain Positive] The World Gold Council report noted that in the remainder of 2026, investment demand is expected to be the main driver of gold demand growth, and will be increasingly supported by over-the-counter trading activities and Asian investment demand. Central banks will remain key gold buyers. High gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand, but the response of gold ore production and recycled gold supply is expected to be relatively mild. Gold investment demand is expected to remain positive for the rest of 2026. OTC activity and Asian investment demand are expected to play a larger role, while Western gold ETF flows may continue to be sensitive to US Treasury real yields, Fed monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar. Although consumer spending has remained relatively resilient, high gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand; technology-related gold demand is expected to further benefit from AI investment, but downside risks are accumulating. (Jinshi Data) [Zijin Mining: Terminates Acquisition of United Gold, Plans to Subscribe for 9.2% Equity] Zijin Mining announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on January 26, 2026, its controlled subsidiary Zijin Gold International signed an Arrangement Agreement with United Gold, under which Zijin Gold International would acquire all outstanding common shares of United Gold for a cash price of C$44 per share, with a total consideration of approximately C$5.5 billion (approximately $4 billion). However, after comprehensive evaluation, both parties believed that certain closing conditions precedent could not be fully satisfied or waived by the deadline stipulated in the acquisition agreement (which had been extended to July 29, 2026) or within a reasonable period thereafter. The parties agreed to terminate the acquisition, and neither party is required to pay a termination fee or any other fees to the other. Meanwhile, the parties separately entered into a Share Subscription Agreement, under which Zijin Gold International intends to subscribe for 12.8 million common shares (representing approximately 9.2% of the enlarged share capital post-issuance) placed by United Gold at a cash price of C$32.55 per share, with a total subscription amount of C$416.6 million, equivalent to approximately $295 million. [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1.7 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, up 54%-61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 200 million yuan to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 80 million yuan to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 570 million yuan to 700 million yuan, up 81.06%-122.36% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 272 million yuan to 402 million yuan, down 2.03%-33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected to Rise 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 500 million to 570 million yuan, up 280.16%-333.39% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 490 million to 580 million yuan, up 172.96%-223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected at 4.1-4.6 Billion Yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On August 5, the morning ex-factory reference average price of SMM #1 silver was 14,556 yuan/kg, up 2.38% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, downstream demand remained sluggish this month, with limited new orders overall. The strengthening silver price further weakened downstream purchase willingness; market transactions mainly relied on support from banking institutions, with deals concentrated around parity, and traders were reluctant to quote. Morning quotations in Shanghai were mostly at parity to a premium of up to 10 yuan/kg against TD; in Shenzhen, some national standard goods were quoted around parity. Although low-priced goods existed, they did not significantly disturb spot trade. Today, the market quoted a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610. Overall, expectations for a Strait of Hormuz agreement heated up, inflation concerns eased briefly, and precious metals recovered slightly. In the spot market, the rise in silver prices further suppressed demand, with orders remaining sluggish and trading staying thin. Voices Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: CITIC Securities research report stated that this year gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, irreconcilable geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we think this round of decline in gold prices is merely a temporary correction within the bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is highly likely to be the bottom zone for this round. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from a drag to a boost, the Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and coupled with surging US military spending driving up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an uptrend within the year. Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Hsueh Michael stated that the "explosive rally phase" for gold prices that began in August 2024 is not yet over, and maintains the forecast of gold at $4,600/oz in Q4 2026. This assessment rests on a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand data, discounting the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios. (Zhitong Finance) A research report from CICC Wealth Futures shows: oil prices pulled back, gold rebounded, and currently, the yen's disruption causing moves in the US dollar index is a new disturbance factor, which is expected to have a relatively limited impact on gold price trends. The biggest pressure on gold currently still comes from oil prices. CICC Wealth Futures believes that if oil prices are not excessively strong, the probability of gold maintaining a fluctuating trend or drifting higher is relatively high. Everbright Futures' outlook for August suggests that the short-term gold price trend depends on the evolving US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or its spillover expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform. However, if a substantive breakthrough in negotiations occurs, gold prices could stabilize in the short term and undergo a recovery and rebound. At that point, if domestic and overseas financial markets show a synchronized recovery, it can be further confirmed. Nevertheless, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank purchases and allocation demand, even if a pullback occurs again, the downside should be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline a medium-term policy framework. Before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key verification indicator. Overall, gold is likely in a stage of bottom consolidation and sentiment repair, and we hold a cautiously optimistic view. The core risk is that the US-Iran conflict once again pushes oil prices above $90/oz, a significant rebound in US inflation data far exceeding expectations, and the evolving probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of overseas financial markets and oil prices, a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict is largely unsupported. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back significantly from their record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, though most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 was $4,509/oz. That figure is down from $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610, compared to a forecast of $5,100 in the previous poll. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and boosted rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey from ING noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and US bond yields. The large drop in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came after a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and bond yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold prices should continue to be supported near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce, and now expects platinum to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by year-end, down from a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in the third quarter, despite historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling. The reasons include ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and local price discounts curbing demand for fresh imports. However, Citi maintains its short-term gold price target of $4,500 for 0–3 months. This target, the bank said, assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed; in the short term there remain many risks that could push gold prices lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance by the Fed. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on the medium to long-term outlook for gold. She noted in her comments that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with gold stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong surging around 20% over three days – a positive signal. “We believe confidence in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect that prices will rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. UBS’s global team remains upbeat on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. She indicated that the key events to watch going forward are the Fed’s policy tone at the FOMC meeting at the end of July and further developments in the Middle East. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical demand for the metal and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold prices face short-term headwinds from the US Fed's tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, gold investment positions look thin, suggesting limited room for further declines. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from the US Fed's tightening expectations, central bank purchases are expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with the bank estimating that central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May and the three-month average of monthly purchases at 67 mt, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman Sachs analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will continue for many years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases will be 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jin10 Data) Kim Soojin, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price action suggests that the market is placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer rather than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to add to its gold positions again at an appropriate time after reducing them earlier this year, believing gold's long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, "We plan to add to our gold positions again; the question is just the timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level from January to February this year, when gold's multi-year bull market abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to bringing inflation back down," "but I don't think we're in that world right now." Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases, a key driver of the previous bull market, will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep correction in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of bottoming out, with further upside only awaiting event catalysts. It recommends building positions in batches near $4,000 on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. Key allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, providing a notable margin of safety. After a deep pullback in H1, current valuations of gold mining companies have retreated sharply from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, aside from a valuation repair rally, they are expected to further benefit from the price elasticity driven by rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an "amplifier" for gold prices—the cost of gold mining is rigid, so rising gold prices directly translate into profit growth, making earnings elasticity far exceed the gold price increase itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: from a medium-term perspective, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of "inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → extended period of high rates by the US Fed → repeated intensification of rate hike expectations within the year," and gold's price center remains dominated by US real bond yields and the US dollar index, with the overall market likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Ceasefire consultations in the Middle East are currently mired in back-and-forth maneuvering, with the two sides significantly diverging on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and toll rules for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The recurring geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed's tightening policy stance. Meanwhile, the simultaneous rise in the US dollar index and US bond yields is creating a dual suppression effect; coupled with gold's safe-haven attributes temporarily yielding to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s bullish logic has not weakened but has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-country competition are weakening the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further confirms the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) The late-cycle US economy faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a growth slowdown. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to an economic slowdown or is forced to maintain higher rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold possesses strong long-term allocation value: the former is favorable for declining real interest rates, while the latter strengthens demand for safe-haven and credit-risk protection. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and its price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

Outokumpu reported Q2 stainless steel deliveries of 488,000 tonnes, up 4% QoQ and 13% YoY. European market demand remained largely flat, supported by the CBAM adjustment mechanism and steel safeguard measures, while underlying US demand proved stronger, particularly in industrial end-applications such as data centers and energy, with Mexico also showing signs of improvement. Intensifying Middle East conflict has heightened uncertainty and driven up energy and freight costs, though the direct impact on Q2 results was limited. For Q3, stainless steel deliveries are expected to decrease by approximately 0–10% QoQ due to seasonal factors in the European business area.

SMM 7.31 News： According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production in July 2026 fell approximately 1.0% year-on-year but rose 25.0% month-on-month. Overseas alumina supply showed significant recovery in July, as capacity previously constrained by Middle East tensions, hurricanes, and unplanned outages improved to varying degrees. Middle Eastern producers gradually resumed operations, Atlantic-region capacity affected by disruptions also recovered, and an Indian producer continued its slow ramp-up. By company and region: Jamaica is emerging from its 2025 trough. The government expects bauxite and alumina export revenues to rise 24% year-on-year to $760 million in 2026, driven by post-hurricane Melissa reconstruction efforts, though still below the $803.4 million recorded in 2024. In Q1 2026, Jamaica's alumina production fell 30.3% year-on-year to 267,060 mt, with bauxite output down 26.4% to 415,143 mt, while exports also contracted. The low-base rebound in July provided some modest support to overseas supply. In Southeast Asia, the Indonesian President's Office recently called for enhanced regulatory oversight, as exports of certain alumina products containing rare earth elements have faced obstacles. Indonesia has yet to issue regulations specifying permissible rare earth content in export products, and this policy uncertainty could pose disruptions to subsequent outbound shipments. In the Middle East, Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) restarted its Al Taweelah alumina refinery on July 10, with production expected to reach 50% of capacity within days, and the company aims to achieve full technical capability by year-end. The refinery produced 2.4 million mt of alumina in 2025. However, the restart timeline for Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) remains unclear, while Qatalum continues to operate at only 60% of capacity. Geopolitical risks in the region persist. Additionally, South32's FY2026 production report showed Brazilian alumina output rose 5.3% year-on-year to 1.4 million mt. The company reiterated its binding agreement to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa for approximately $5.6 billion, with the transaction expected to close in the second half of 2027. Looking ahead to August, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to continue its recovery, with overall availability trending looser. The Middle East restart, improved Indonesian raw material access, and capacity restoration in India and the Atlantic region will contribute incremental supply. However, the Middle East conflict remains unresolved, while Indonesia's rare earth regulatory policies and quota issues, along with European sanctions uncertainty, could still disrupt the supply recovery. Supply-side uncertainties persist.

SMM, July 31: According to SMM statistics, total overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China fell approximately 1.0% YoY in July 2026, while rising about 25.0% MoM. July saw a notable recovery-driven increase in alumina supply outside China, as capacity previously constrained by the Middle East situation, hurricanes, and unplanned production cuts was restored to varying degrees. Enterprises in the Middle East gradually resumed production, disrupted capacity in the Atlantic region also recovered step by step, and an Indian enterprise slowly ramped up production. By enterprise and region: Jamaica is emerging from its 2025 trough. The government expects that as post-Hurricane Melissa reconstruction advances, bauxite and alumina export revenue will grow 24% YoY to $760 million in 2026, though this remains below the $803.4 million recorded in 2024. In Q1 2026, Jamaica’s alumina production fell 30.3% YoY to 267,060 mt, bauxite production dropped 26.4% YoY to 415,143 mt, and exports contracted in tandem; against a low base, the recovery in July provided a certain supplement to supply outside China. In Southeast Asia, the Indonesian presidential office recently called for stronger oversight. Exports have been hindered because some alumina contains rare earth elements, yet Indonesia has not introduced regulations on rare earth content. This policy uncertainty could cause disruptions to subsequent exports. In the Middle East, EGA restarted the alumina refinery at its Al Taweelah site on July 10 and expects to restore 50% capacity within a few days, aiming for full technical capability by year-end. The refinery produced 2.4 million mt of alumina in 2025. However, the production resumption at the Bahrain aluminum smelter remains unclear and the Qatar aluminum smelter is still running at 60% capacity, with geopolitical risks yet to recede. Elsewhere, South32’s FY2026 report showed that its Brazilian alumina production grew 5.3% YoY to 1.4 million mt, and the company reaffirmed its plan to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa for about $5.6 billion, with the transaction expected to close in H2 2027. Looking ahead to August, the supply of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China is expected to continue recovering, trending broadly looser. Production resumptions in the Middle East, improving raw material conditions in Indonesia, and capacity restoration in India and the Atlantic region will contribute growth. However, the Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and uncertainties linked to Indonesia’s rare earth regulatory policy and quota issues, along with European sanctions, could still cause disruptions, leaving some supply-side uncertainty in place. (The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided herein is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not rely on this article as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decision made by a client shall have no connection to Shanghai Metals Market.) Data source: SMM

SMM News, July 31: According to SMM statistics, total outside-China aluminum production in July 2026 fell 6.7% YoY, mainly due to a YoY decline in operating rates at Middle East aluminum smelters. Outside-China daily average production rebounded 1.6% MoM, mainly driven by ongoing production resumptions at smelters in the Middle East and Iceland, as well as output increases brought by project ramp-ups and power-on commissioning in Indonesia, Vietnam, and other locations. In July, there were many updates on operating aluminum capacity outside China. The details are as follows: On July 1, an announcement on Hydro’s official website showed that the Slovalco aluminum smelter had reached an agreement with the Slovak government, allowing it to resume production of 75,000 mt of aluminum capacity, with production expected to start in 2026 Q4. On July 2, according to overseas media reports, Magnitude 7 Metals will restart the No. 1 potline at its aluminum smelter in Marston, Missouri, adding 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity by the end of 2026. On July 2, EGA announced that its plant in Al Taweelah had made progress in restoring production: anode removal for all pots had been fully completed; pot cleaning was about 90% complete; and solidified aluminum blocks in over 20% of pots had been cleared. On May 26, the first repaired pot was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 pots were in operation (1,262 pots in total). On July 3, Vedanta Aluminium released a production report showing that in FY27 (2026 Q2), aluminum production at the Balco smelter reached 168,000 mt, up 10% QoQ and up 17% YoY, mainly benefiting from trial production output from expanded capacity. On July 15, Rio Tinto released its Q2 results report, noting continued capacity increases at Kitimat, NZAS, and AP60. The last two potlines at the Arvida aluminum smelter were closed as planned in June, and Arvida AP60 is expected to reach full production by year-end. On July 16, Alcoa released its Q2 results report. Its production reached 636,000 mt, up 5% QoQ, mainly benefiting from the completion of production resumptions at the San Ciprián smelter in Spain, ongoing production resumptions at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, and the completion of production resumptions at the Lista smelter in Norway and the Portland smelter in Australia. Looking ahead to August 2026, production resumptions in the Middle East are expected to continue; new projects previously commissioned in Indonesia and Vietnam are expected to continue ramping up production; and Balco’s expanded capacity in India is expected to continue ramping up. Although the Middle East conflict has flared up again, market feedback indicates it has not affected smelter production again. Overall, outside-China aluminum production is expected to maintain the MoM growth trend in the short term. However, recent market rumors suggest that construction progress for some aluminum projects in the Middle East and Indonesia has fallen short of expectations, and continued attention should be paid to subsequent announcements from relevant smelters in the Middle East, Indonesia, and India. [Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database models, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM (Guo Mingxin 021-20707919)

[Bearish for Precious Metals] The US Fed held rates but internal divisions intensified, and the hawkish stance remains firm. On July 30, the Fed announced it kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes. However, the vote was 9:3, with three regional Fed presidents voting for a rate hike—the first time since 2016 that three dissenting votes were cast in unison, highlighting growing hawkish strength within. Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the press conference the unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target and emphasized that if inflation worsens, decisive action will be taken. Market expectations for a September rate hike heated up, extending the duration of high interest rates and continuing to weigh on precious metal valuations. US Treasury yields hit multi-year highs, and elevated real interest rates raised holding costs. Driven by the Fed's hawkish stance and fiscal supply pressures, the 10-year Treasury yield stayed high above 4.6%, while the 30-year yield briefly breached 5.2%, a new high since 2007. The opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals remains elevated, suppressing their appeal for capital. The US dollar index continued to consolidate at highs, while the oil price rebound reinforced the inflation-rate hike linkage. The dollar index consolidated at highs this week in the 101-101.5 range. Although it pulled back slightly after the Fed decision, the overall strength remains intact, directly pressuring precious metals priced in dollars. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East conflicts drove a sharp rebound in international oil prices, with Brent crude returning above $90/barrel. Rising energy prices exacerbated the risk of secondary inflation, in turn reinforcing the logic for the Fed to keep rates high and potentially hike further. Labour market resilience exceeded expectations, supporting prolonged high interest rates. US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell to 187,000, the lowest since 1969, nearly a 50-year low, showing that the labour market remains quite resilient. Strong employment data reduced the likelihood of Fed rate cuts while providing fundamental support for further rate hikes. The period of real rates staying high was further extended, continuing to suppress the valuation of non-yielding precious metals. [Bullish for Precious Metals] With the US Fed's decision settled, negative factors were fully priced in, driving a sentiment recovery. The outcome of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged was already fully priced in by the market. Although hawkish signals were sent, no rate hike occurred, leading to a phased release of suppressed bullish sentiment, which drove a slight rebound in precious metals futures. Equity market volatility intensified, with hedging demand rising marginally. This week, US stocks came under increased pullback pressure, with the Nasdaq-100 Index entering a technical correction zone, as tech stocks' earnings expectations and high valuations were under pressure in a high interest rate environment. The rise in equity market volatility drove some funds to increase gold allocations as a risk hedge, providing supplementary support for short-term buying. Global trade frictions fully escalated, with policy uncertainty boosting hedging demand. On July 24, the US officially imposed an additional 10%-12.5% tariff on 60 global trading partners, covering over 99% of total US trade, using Section 301 to replace previous emergency tariffs ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, significantly enhancing legal compliance. Of these, 14 economies were subject to a 10% rate and 46 to a 12.5% rate, with only a few categories such as energy and natural gas exempt. Trade barriers elevated the risk of a global recession, and policy uncertainty drove funds to seek hedging in non-sovereign credit assets like gold, aligning with geopolitical hedging. China's gold ETFs continued to see net inflows, with physical demand forming floor support. China's gold ETFs recorded net inflows for consecutive days, attracting over 300 million yuan in nearly 8 days, reflecting domestic investors' growing demand for gold allocation. Combined with the long-term trend of global central bank gold purchases, physical demand imposed a substantial constraint on the downside room for precious metals. [Macro Summary] This week, the precious metals market saw intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, overall moving sideways in a narrow range. On one hand, repeated Middle East geopolitical conflicts and escalating global trade frictions provided temporary safe-haven buying support; on the other hand, the strengthened hawkish stance of the US Fed, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index staying high, and oil price rebound pushing up rate hike expectations together exerted sustained pressure. The trending market has not yet clearly emerged, and focus should be on the marginal impacts of changes in September rate hike expectations, the evolution of the Middle East situation, and further escalation of trade frictions.