Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices trended downward under the influence of capital flows and macro sentiment. Supply side, mainstream smelters kept ex-factory prices stable; after spot prices fell, traders' sentiment to hold prices firm strengthened, and spot-futures price spread quotations were raised to above parity. Demand side, lower spot prices improved downstream purchasing sentiment and slightly lifted transactions, but affected by fluctuations in related metals, downstream buyers remained cautious and mainly made just-in-time procurement. This week, the DRC announced an extension of cobalt intermediate product export quotas for Q4 2025, increasing export uncertainty; the structurally tight raw material situation in China remained unresolved, providing bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices edged up. The DRC announced its quota extension policy, under which Q4 2025 quotas can be extended by up to one month, and Q1 2026 quotas can be extended to the end of June; it is understood that the core reason for the current slow approval process for intermediate products is the lack of local detection personnel. Supply side, some miners sold small volumes of futures cobalt intermediate products this week, with quotations above $25.9/lb. Demand side, most smelters remained on the sidelines as cobalt salt prices struggled to catch up and available-for-sale intermediate products were scarce, and actual transactions were sluggish. Overall, based on the current pace of shipments, large-volume arrivals of cobalt intermediate products at port may be delayed to June-July. After downstream orders become clear and procurement demand is released, intermediate product prices will still have upside room. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to export progress in the DRC and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, the spot market for cobalt sulphate operated steadily, with no significant price fluctuations, and overall continued to move sideways within a narrow range. Supply side, the continued tightness in raw materials supported smelter quotations, with the mainstream quotation range stable at 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the week, a small number of enterprises made low-priced shipments at 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt due to financial reporting and funding pressure, but these enterprises have now basically completed cash realization. Demand remained mediocre, as downstream enterprises were still cautious about expectations for subsequent orders, and their own raw material inventory remained ample, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm. They only purchased small volumes of low-priced cargoes as needed, and overall market trading activity was weak. In the short term, the market remained in an inventory digestion cycle, with buyers and sellers in a stalemate, making large price swings unlikely. In the long term, uncertainty over raw material supply from the DRC will still support the cost side. As downstream inventories are effectively depleted, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to gradually rebound and recover.

[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Hold Up Well, and Market Inquiry Activity Increases] The Pr-Nd oxide market as a whole continued to hold up well. Under the impact of expectations of tighter supply and pronounced fluctuations in futures prices, upstream suppliers kept raising their offers, while low-priced cargoes tightened rapidly, pushing Pr-Nd oxide prices up to 722,000-728,000 yuan/mt.

Precious metal prices were in the doldrums today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract had not narrowed significantly for the time being, while relatively large differences in spot market quotations still existed. In the Shanghai market, during the morning session, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots were at premiums of 80-100 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2606 contract. However, due to weak downstream purchase interest, some suppliers lowered premiums and concluded a small number of deals. It was understood that, as the situation surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict remained unclear, investment demand for precious metals fell sharply, and downstream buyers generally stayed on the sidelines and purchased cautiously. Some smelters sold cargoes self-picked up from production site at reduced premiums of 50 yuan/kg against TD, and with relatively ample spot cargoes circulating in the market, overall spot transactions were sluggish.

Precious metal prices held up well today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract changed relatively little from yesterday, while relatively large differences in spot market quotations still persisted. In the Shanghai market, during the morning session, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots were at premiums of 80-100 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 30 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Some suppliers held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, quoting premiums of 100-120 yuan/kg against TD, or a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. It was understood that quotation differences among circulating cargoes of different brands remained relatively large. Downstream buyers generally made substantial counteroffers for purchases, and the actual transaction price in the delivery brand silver ingot market was lowered to premiums of 70-90 yuan/kg against TD. Circulating cargoes in the market were relatively ample, and spot transactions remained sluggish.

Global scrap metal prices experienced a predominantly upward trend in mid-March 2026, with the most significant increases recorded in Turkey and the United States. In Turkey, HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap prices rose by 3.9% between late February and late March, reaching $388.3 per tonne, the highest level since mid-2024. The price surge is primarily driven by a domestic supply shortage and rising freight rates linked to Middle East instability, forcing electric arc furnace operators to absorb higher costs as high-grade alternatives like Asian billets become increasingly scarce.

Precious metal prices strengthened today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract widened slightly. As month-end approached, many suppliers still held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. In the Shanghai market, during morning trading, mainstream quotations from suppliers of standard silver ingots were at premiums of 100-120 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 30 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract, with transactions mainly driven by just-in-time procurement. Some smelters, concerned about a decline in premiums in April, proactively lowered premiums to 70-100 yuan/kg to sell off cargoes. It was understood that market quotations varied widely among different brands of circulating cargoes. Some non-registered brand silver ingots were sold off at reduced prices or with separated goods and invoices. Downstream buyers generally stayed on the sidelines and purchased cautiously, or made only limited just-in-time procurement. Actual transactions still mainly concluded after downstream bargaining and price cuts, and sluggish market trading conditions remained unchanged.

For almost four weeks, the war against Iran has kept the world on edge – a conflict that leaves deep marks not only geopolitically but also economically. Volatility and uncertainty in global markets are increasing daily.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Polysilicon Prices Remained Slightly Weak, While Module Prices Were Stable on the Surface but Fell in Practice] Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 36-43.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices still appeared slightly weak over the weekend, and the market reported that some crystal pulling facilities had extremely low target prices, which upstream suppliers had not yet accepted.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Escalating Geopolitical Risks in the Middle East, ADC12 Expected to Hold Up Well in the Short Term] On the macro front, the Taweelah complex of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the UAE suffered severe damage in Iranian missile and drone attacks. Amid macro disruptions, ADC12 prices were expected to continue holding up well in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the impact of developments in the Middle East on aluminum prices and the pace of downstream consumption recovery.