Precious metals staged their first coordinated rally in nearly two weeks on Tuesday as the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to lift market sentiment and weaken the dollar.

[Silicon Metal Market Sees Rising Bargaining Sentiment, Focus on Changes in Supply-Side Operating Rates]: This week, the silicon metal market held steady, with the price center of some specifications edging up slightly. As of March 26, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW. #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,500 yuan/mt, flat WoW, and #3303 silicon was at 10,200-10,400 yuan/mt, also flat WoW. In the futures market, affected by sentiment and expectations around supply-side factors such as “self-discipline among silicon enterprises and anti-involution,” the most-traded silicon metal futures contract continued to hold up well over the past week, closing at 8,735 yuan/mt late on Thursday with a notable gain. In terms of quotations, silicon enterprises mostly kept shipment quotes stable, with some quotes testing slightly higher; the quote center of trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market rose markedly, and low-priced cargoes disappeared. As downstream acceptance of high prices was limited, high-priced transactions were difficult to conclude in the market.

Dalian iron ore rose in the morning session today and then slowly pulled back. The most-traded contract I2605 finally closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.18% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 5-8 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills maintained a steady procurement pace; overall spot market transactions were limited. Morning gains in futures were driven more by market rumors that core suppliers were about to cut production. According to this week’s SMM data, hot metal production steadily rebounded to 2.4049 million mt this week, up 15,000 mt WoW, indicating strong price support from the demand side. In terms of supply, IOCJ fines and PB lump continued to see relatively large destocking, while Newman fines and MAC fines inventories kept rising, indicating that structural tightness at ports still existed. However, due to elevated prices and mixed market news, with rumors surrounding long-term contract negotiations and production cuts remaining confusing, market risks intensified, and most funds chose to stay on the sidelines. Overall, iron ore prices were more likely to break upward, with relatively solid support at the bottom, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, costs increased further, losses at most coke producers widened, and willingness to push for a coke price hike strengthened, but a coke price hike is expected to be implemented, while coke production remained stable. Demand side, finished steel shipments improved somewhat, steel inventories began to decline, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, raising acceptance of higher coke prices. In summary, coke fundamentals have turned tighter, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term, with a coke price hike expected to be implemented.

This week, after the price spread between the TD price on the Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract narrowed, it remained stable, but the import window for silver ingots closed, and traders’ imported silver ingot arrivals declined. As month-end approached, coupled with weaker precious metals prices and continued downward adjustments in spot premiums, spot transactions were sluggish, and transaction prices were still mainly concluded through negotiated discounts. As of Thursday, in the Shanghai market, the tradable quote for standard silver ingots against TD premiums was lowered to 50-100 yuan/kg. Suppliers of standard silver ingots still largely held prices firm and were reluctant to sell, while downstream buyers only made just-in-time procurement, and were likewise less willing to stockpile on price dips. Trading in the spot market continued to shrink. Inventory side, spot market consumption continued to weaken this week. Although downstream just-in-time procurement generally involved substantial price negotiations, suppliers held inventory and waited due to costs and other reasons, and social inventory of silver ingots posted a slight cumulative increase. In addition, the import window for silver ingots had basically closed, and both supply and demand in China’s spot silver ingot market declined. Social inventory of silver ingots is expected to see limited growth this week.

SMM News, March 26: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,505 yuan/mt during the day. Prices edged down slightly in early trading, then fluctuated rangebound within the 16,425-16,460 yuan/mt range, with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. As downstream battery enterprises showed low willingness to restock and consumption remained weak, SHFE lead fell further in the afternoon session, hitting a low of 16,385 yuan/mt, before rebounding slightly near the close to end at 16,460 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, down 35 yuan/mt, with a gain of 0.21%. On the supply side, quotes for primary lead smelter cargoes self-picked up from production site held steady, while secondary lead producers held prices firm, leading to tight circulating cargoes. On the demand side, downstream players remained on the sidelines, with long-term contract and purchasing as needed proceeding in parallel. SMM expects lead prices to maintain a sideways movement in the short term. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Silicone Market Transaction Center Stabilized, Downstream Purchased as Needed on Price Dips] This week, the transaction range in China's silicone DMC market was 13,800-14,300 yuan/mt, stable WoW. By regional quotes, monomer enterprises in Shandong quoted 14,000 yuan/mt, while mainstream monomer enterprises in other regions mostly quoted 14,300 yuan/mt. After the phased price fluctuations last week, the main transaction range gradually stabilized.

SMM, March 25: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,495 yuan/mt. After the opening, driven by broad gains across the nonferrous metals complex, prices quickly surged to an intraday high of 16,590 yuan/mt, then fluctuated lower, giving back part of the gains and moving slightly around the daily average line. Near the close, the SHFE lead price center edged higher, fluctuating rangebound within the 16,488-16,542 yuan/mt range, while the tug-of-war between longs and shorts eased. It finally closed at 16,495 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 75 yuan/mt, or 0.46%. Primary lead suppliers held prices firm, and premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly. Coupled with tight circulating supply caused by maintenance at some secondary lead enterprises, this supported lead prices. Downstream buyers mainly purchased as needed. As secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead prices, spot orders showed a stronger preference for primary lead. Overall, spot support remained strong, providing downside support for lead prices, but with more downstream bargaining and a lack of strong upward momentum, prices are expected to remain rangebound in the short term. Data source disclaimer: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Tin Morning Comment: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintained a Fluctuating Trend After Opening Slightly Higher in the Night Session, Spot Market Transactions Showed Mediocre Performance]