Guinea-China bauxite freigh rates have rebounded recently amid renewed volatility in the Middle East and continued tightness in the dry bulk shipping market. As at least 70% of Guinea’s bauxite shipments are destined for China, sustained high freight rates on the Guinea-China route have not only lifted delivered logistics costs but also constrained shipments through weaker margins and limited vessel availability. Freight rose much faster than CIF prices, briefly accounting for over half of delivered prices SMM data showed that Guinea-China bauxite freight rates rose from $23.50/wmt on February 27 to $36.75/wmt on May 29, an increase of 56.4%. Freight remained at the same elevated level in the week ending June 5. Over the same period, the weekly average SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price rose from $60.00/wmt to $68.00/wmt, an increase of only 13.3%, significantly lagging the rise in freight. As a result, freight as a share of the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price increased from 39.17% to 54.04%, meaning that ocean freight at one point represented more than half of the assessed delivered price. With CIF prices unable to fully absorb the additional shipping costs, pressure on miners’ and traders’ operating margins continued to build. According to SMM market contacts, the vast majority of surveyed Guinean mines reduced shipments to varying degrees after freight rates remained elevated, while some mines temporarily suspended loadings. High freight costs have therefore become a major direct factor behind the recent slowdown in Guinea’s bauxite shipments. In addition to prices, tight vessel availability has also restricted physical shipments. Traders and miners have widely reported difficulties securing spot bulk carriers, particularly for prompt cargoes. Some shipments have been delayed even where participants were prepared to accept prevailing freight levels, as vessels could not be secured in time and loading schedules had to be postponed. Peak season and contractual obligations initially supported March-April shipments Despite the sharp rise in Guinea-China freight rates from March, Guinea’s bauxite shipments remained relatively high during March and April. March-April is traditionally a peak shipment period in Guinea, when mining, inland transport and port-loading conditions are relatively favourable. In addition, previously signed long-term contracts and vessels booked in advance still had to be fulfilled. At the beginning of the freight rally, many market participants also expected the increase to be temporary. Miners therefore did not immediately make broad adjustments to existing shipment plans. SMM data showed that average weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea stood at 4.98 million mt between March 6 and April 24. Shipments remained high even after freight exceeded $30/wmt, reaching a weekly peak of 6.15 million mt in the week ending April 3. However, as elevated freight rates persisted into late April and May, the support from existing contracts, previously arranged vessels and the seasonal shipment peak gradually weakened. The impact of shipping costs became increasingly visible in outbound volumes. Average weekly shipments fell to 4.00 million mt between May 1 and June 26, down 19.8% from the March 6-April 24 average. Monthly data showed a similar trend. Guinea shipped 17.50 million mt in May, down 18.5% month on month, before shipments declined by another 10.0% to 15.74 million mt in June. The timing of the decline broadly coincided with the prolonged period of high freight rates and increasingly tight spot vessel availability reported by market participants since late April. Freight pressure eased briefly in late June before returning in July Shipping-market pressure eased temporarily in the second half of June as more positive expectations emerged around Middle East negotiations. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates fell from $36.75/wmt on June 5 to $31.00/wmt on July 3, while freight as a share of the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price declined from 54.04% to 43.66%. However, shipments did not recover immediately. Restarting cargo programmes, securing vessels and reorganising loading schedules all require time. Guinea was also moving deeper into its rainy season, further limiting the speed of any recovery. The rainy season generally runs from May to November, with the impact becoming more pronounced in July and August. SMM market feedback suggests that rainfall may reduce shipments by around 20% during the most disruptive period by affecting mine-to-port transportation, barge operations and loading efficiency. Entering July, renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed Guinea-China freight rates higher again. Freight rose from $31.00/wmt on July 3 to $35.00/wmt on July 24, an increase of 12.9%. Over the same period, the weekly average SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price edged down from $71.00/wmt to $70.50/wmt, lifting the freight share back to 49.65%. According to SMM market contacts, as freight rates rebounded and spot bulk carriers remained difficult to secure, some mines that had previously planned to resume shipments again reduced or suspended loadings. Weekly shipments declined from 3.41 million mt in the week ending July 3 to 3.07 million mt in the week ending July 24, a decrease of 9.9%. Shipments fell as low as 2.83 million mt in the week ending July 17. As of July 24, Guinea’s cumulative July shipments stood at 10.55 million mt, equivalent to an average of 439,500 mt per day, down 16.2% from June’s daily average. SMM outlook SMM believes that the recent pressure on Guinea’s bauxite shipments cannot be attributed solely to seasonal rainfall. Persistently high freight rates and tight spot vessel availability have become the main direct constraints on shipments, while the rainy season has amplified the disruption. High freight rates continue to compress the operating room available to miners and traders, while scarce vessel availability is preventing some cargoes from progressing from planned sales to actual loading. The traditional shipment peak, contractual obligations and previously arranged vessels delayed the transmission of higher freight costs into shipment volumes during March and April. However, as elevated freight rates persisted, the vast majority of surveyed miners gradually reduced shipments, while some temporarily halted loadings, with the impact becoming increasingly apparent from May. In the near term, developments in the Middle East, fuel costs and dry bulk vessel availability in the West African market will remain key factors influencing Guinea-China freight rates. Should freight rates remain near $35/wmt or rise further, while tight spot bulk carrier availability shows no meaningful improvement, Guinean miners’ willingness to ship and their actual loading capacity may remain constrained. Combined with the impact of the July-August rainy season on mine-to-port transportation, barge operations and port-loading efficiency, Guinea’s weekly bauxite shipments are expected to remain volatile at relatively low levels, with marginal mines and spot cargoes facing greater pressure. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2026, under SMM’s base-case scenario of persistently high freight rates, tight vessel availability and continued rainy-season disruption, Guinea’s bauxite shipments are expected to remain subdued and fluctuate at low levels. Average daily shipments may mainly range between 370,000 mt and 400,000 mt, corresponding to monthly shipments of approximately 11.5 million-12.0 million mt, broadly in line with the monthly average recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Shipments could stage a temporary recovery should Middle East tensions ease, freight rates decline significantly and bulk vessel availability improve. Meanwhile, developments concerning Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy remain a key uncertainty for the supply outlook. Any substantive implementation of related measures could further alter the pace of shipments and expectations for the country’s total bauxite exports.

[SMM Analysis: US and Europe Expand Copper Recycling Capacity as Scrap Localisation Takes Shape]The US and Europe are expanding recycling capacity and tightening resource policies to retain more copper scrap locally. Aurubis projects in Hamburg and Georgia will increase complex-feedstock processing, while export controls may further limit trade flows. Asian buyers could face higher payabilities, longer lead times and tighter supply.

SMM July 30 News: In the metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper edged up, SHFE aluminum rose 1.03%. SHFE lead fell 0.25%. SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin gained 0.49%. SHFE nickel rose 0.28%. Besides, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.63%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.94%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.76%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.31%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the decline from the previous two trading days, falling another 1.57%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 2.16%, rebar fell 1.43%, hot-rolled coil fell 1.06%. Stainless steel rose 0.28%. In terms of coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.33%, the most-traded coke contract fell 1.17%. In the overseas base metals market, as of 11:38, LME metals almost all rose. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc all gained within 0.5%. LME tin rose 0.6%. LME nickel fell 0.38%. In the precious metals market, as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.34%, COMEX silver fell 0.84%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 0.43%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.16%. Besides, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.98%, the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.99%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container freight index futures fell 2.68% to 1,688 points. As of 11:38 on July 30, some midday futures market conditions: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: During the morning session, the center of the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract was higher than the same period of the previous trading day. The rise in aluminum prices significantly dampened market purchasing sentiment. On the day, some suppliers quoted at parity with the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract, with market acceptance remaining weak. The mainstream transaction price was mainly from SHFE aluminum 2608 contract at a discount of 10 yuan/mt to parity... Macro Front Domestically: [National Energy Administration: H1 China's renewable energy power generation share exceeded 40% for the first time] According to the press conference of the National Energy Administration, in H1, China's renewable energy developed rapidly, with power generation accounting for over 40% of total power generation for the first time. In H1, national renewable energy power generation was nearly 2 trillion kWh, up about 9% YoY, accounting for 41.2% of total power generation, exceeding 40% for the first time. Among them, wind and solar power generation totaled 1.25 trillion kWh, up 9.3% YoY. In terms of installations, China's renewable energy new installations reached 117 million kW in H1, accounting for 73.9% of total new installations, continuing to hold the dominant position. As of the end of June, China's renewable energy installations reached 2.455 billion kW, accounting for over 60% of China's total installed capacity. (CCTV News) [China's coal-fired power generation share of total power generation fell below 50% for the first time in H1] It was learned from a press conference held by the National Energy Administration today that the pace of China's green and low-carbon energy transition accelerated in H1. As of the end of June, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power reached 1.95 billion kW, up 16.8% YoY. In terms of power generation, total wind and solar power generation exceeded 1.2 trillion kWh in H1, accounting for roughly one-quarter of total electricity consumption. Meanwhile, China's coal-fired power generation was 2.5 trillion kWh, with its share of total power generation dropping to 49.7%, marking the first time the share fell below 50% in H1. (CCTV News) The PBOC conducted a 270.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Meanwhile, it conducted a 600 billion yuan overnight reverse repo operation. Today, 804 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. > On July 30, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7892 yuan per US dollar. The US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 100.94. On Wednesday, July 29 (ET), the US Fed announced after the FOMC meeting that the target range for the federal funds rate would remain unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. To date, after cutting rates at three consecutive meetings through the end of last year, the FOMC has stood pat at all five monetary policy meetings since the start of 2026. The decision was in line with market expectations. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Warsh reiterated at the start of the press conference that the Fed is firmly committed to achieving its 2% YoY inflation target. Warsh stated that the committee would unwaveringly pursue price stability. Given the current environment of heightened uncertainty, refraining from providing forward guidance is a "prudent" approach. He stressed to reporters that the Fed has no so-called "soft inflation target" or any other implicit target; the sole inflation goal is 2%. Regarding the overall economy, Warsh said the US economy has shown "impressive resilience," and while it has faced a series of shocks recently, the overall trend remains positive. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 36.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 63.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 0% (These probabilities were 17.8%, 60.2%, and 22% before the Fed decision, respectively.)The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 26.2%, while the probabilities of cumulative rate hikes of 25 bps, 50 bps, and 75 bps are 55.6%, 18.2%, and 0%, respectively (versus 11.9%, 46.1%, 34.7%, and 7.3% before the Fed decision). (Jin10 Data APP) A CICC research report noted that the US Fed kept rates unchanged at its July meeting, but hawkish sentiment within strengthened further as three voting members supported a 25 bps rate hike. We believe the greatest change from this meeting was not the rate decision, but rather Fed Chairman Warsh’s attempt to reduce policy intervention and rely more on a spontaneous rise in market rates to tighten financial conditions, outsourcing part of the tightening function to the market. However, against the backdrop of inflation persistently exceeding the target, this approach could easily undermine market confidence in the Fed’s policy credibility. After the meeting, long-end US Treasury yields surged and the curve steepened notably, likely reflecting investors beginning to price in higher long-term inflation and policy risks. Looking ahead, we believe that if employment or inflation data exceed expectations, the market will not only further raise expectations for a September rate hike, but may also price in the risk of the Fed acting “too late.” Long-end rates could rise further, and risk assets would face greater adjustment pressure. T. Rowe Price Chief US Economist Blerina Uruci said that, assuming oil prices do not spike and inflation trends lower, the Fed could keep rates unchanged at its September meeting. She said in a report that, given the number of dissent votes at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and oil price uncertainty, market expectations for the September rate decision reflect a roughly 50-50 chance. The market will continue to pressure the Fed and may not back down until inflation data forces it to act, maintaining the view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. The US core CPI data for June did not influence the Fed’s decision, she added, noting that Warsh is watching this trend and that “with a bit of luck, this trend could play in his favor in a few months.” DBS Group Research Senior FX Strategist Philip Wee said in a commentary that the US dollar could be weighed down by the divergence in forward guidance between the Fed and other central banks. By removing forward guidance and keeping rates unchanged, Fed Chairman Warsh has brought the Fed into a monetary “mirror maze,” resulting in volatile consequences. Warsh has left the US market “groping in the dark.” In contrast, the European Central Bank has been more unified in signaling a rate hike in September, which gives the euro a clear comparative advantage. If the Bank of England defies the broad consensus of holding rates steady and unexpectedly hikes later today, the pound is likely to appreciate. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: [Data Dove, Market Hawk: Bank of England Faces Policy Signal Test on Thursday] Rate futures markets are firmly betting on a Bank of England rate hike in November. The BoE will announce its rate decision, meeting minutes, and latest economic forecasts on Thursday, followed by a press conference from Governor Bailey. Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect the MPC to keep rates unchanged 7-2, holding steady throughout the year. Previously, UK CPI fell to a 15-month low in June, while private sector wage growth was the weakest since 2020. The government led by new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has prioritized tackling the cost-of-living crisis, announcing the removal of VAT on household electricity bills. Almost no fundamentals side logic supports a Bank of England rate hike. However, rate futures data on Wednesday pointed to a 25bp hike in November and another in March 2027. Data: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25, US core PCE price index YoY for June, US personal spending MoM for June, US Q2 real GDP annualized QoQ advance, US Q2 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ advance, US Q2 core PCE price index annualized QoQ advance, US core PCE price index MoM for June, Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY advance, Eurozone June unemployment rate, Eurozone July industrial confidence index, Eurozone July economic sentiment index, France Q2 GDP YoY advance, Swiss July KOF leading indicator, UK Bank Rate decision, Germany Q2 non-seasonally adjusted GDP YoY advance, and Germany July CPI MoM advance. Crude oil: As of 11:38, both crude oil benchmarks were down, with WTI down 1.04% and Brent down 1.15%. Although the Middle East conflict has continued to escalate, data shows tankers are still leaving the region. Kpler shipping data showed 37 cargo ships passed through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, the highest since July 19, while only a few passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Among the vessels passing through the strait, 20 entered and 17 departed. There were no VLCCs or LNG carriers. Among the departing vessels, three Aframax tankers were laden with crude oil: the Aisopos and Gustav, carrying over 750,000 barrels of crude, were heading to the Gulf of Aden, while the Karachi, with about 430,000 barrels, was bound for Pakistan. Among the inbound ships, two carried petrochemical products: the Velos Aquarius delivered 345,000 barrels of MTBE to areas west of the Suez, and the Sea Ambition shipped nearly 93,000 barrels of chemicals to Turkey. (Jin10 Data APP) The UAE's Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) is continuing to export LNG from its Persian Gulf facilities, despite renewed conflict in the region forcing producers to limit shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data, an empty LNG carrier owned by Adnoc appeared in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday. The voyage is a rare occurrence, as visible traffic in the strait has largely halted since the attack on a Qatari LNG vessel earlier this month. Meanwhile, satellite images show ongoing cargo loadings, and on Friday an oil tanker was docked at the UAE's Das Island export terminal. These developments underscore that, despite the breakdown of US-Iran peace talks leading to tanker attacks near the strait, fuel exporters are still striving to maintain normal shipping operations. (Jin10 Data APP) Government data released by the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed that commercial crude oil inventories plunged by 7.2 million barrels last week, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 307.7 million barrels, the lowest level in over 40 years. Meanwhile, US refinery capacity utilization rate has climbed to 97%, with some areas in the Midwest running at full 100% capacity. The direct trigger for this sharp inventory drawdown was the renewed military conflict between the US and Iran over the past week. The ongoing US-Iran hostilities have severely restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and supplies of oil and petrochemical products from the Middle East face ongoing disruptions. (from Wall Street CN APP) On July 29 local time, Farhan Haq, Deputy Spokesman for the UN Secretary-General, said at a regular press briefing at UN Headquarters in New York that the recent fighting in the Middle East is showing a trend of further escalation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres is deeply concerned about the escalation of the conflict and the involvement of more countries, and called on all parties concerned to cease hostilities and return to diplomatic negotiations and mediation. Responding to a question about a drone attack on a natural gas storage facility at Egypt's Damietta port, Haq said the UN does not have first-hand information on the incident, but expressed concern that as the conflict continues, more countries could be affected. (CCTV News) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China's alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW, and the PEM electrolyzer market at 2.7 GW. This week, there were no offline public delivery updates. Project-related updates: Inner Mongolia Source Code Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. : The integrated project for coal chemical carbon dioxide capture, conversion to green methanol and reuse of Inner Mongolia Source Code Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. received filing. The project is located opposite the Xin'ao coal chemical enterprise park in Dalad Banner, Ordos City, with a total investment of 3.78 billion yuan, including self-owned funds of 3.213 billion yuan and bank loans of 567 million yuan. The construction period is from March 2027 to March 2030. The project plans to capture and purify 1.5 million mt of industrial flue gas CO₂ annually, combined with green hydrogen catalytic synthesis to produce green methanol. Upon completion, it will produce 1 million mt of green methanol per year. Supporting facilities for CO₂ capture, water electrolysis for hydrogen production, methanol synthesis, distillation units, storage and transportation, and environmental protection will also be constructed. Sinopec Star (Inner Mongolia) West Hydrogen East Transmission New Energy Co., Ltd. : The path planning and demonstration, land pre-examination, and planning site selection project (Tianjin section) for the Inner Mongolia Ulanqab to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region hydrogen transmission pipeline demonstration project, Section 1, has issued a tender announcement. This pipeline passes through Tianjin's Jinghai District, Binhai New Area, Xiqing District, and Jinnan District, with a total length of approximately 99 km, and plans to construct 1 station and 5 valve chambers. The tendering work includes path demonstration, preparation of a planning site selection report, and compilation and submission for land pre-examination, with the ultimate goal of obtaining the land pre-examination and site selection opinion letter. The estimated contract value for the section is 3.72 million yuan (tax inclusive), and consortium bids are not accepted for this tender. Guizhou Energy Shuicheng Coal-Electricity-Chemical Integration Co., Ltd. : The 300,000 mt/year methanol technological transformation and production resumption comprehensive utilization project at Guizhou Energy Shuicheng Xinsheng Coal Chemical has entered the environmental assessment stage. The project is invested and constructed by Guizhou Energy Shuicheng Coal-Electricity-Chemical Integration Co., Ltd., located in Shihe Community, Laoyingshan Subdistrict, Shuicheng District, Liupanshui City, covering an area of 125.2 mu. The total investment is 674.894 million yuan, with environmental protection investment of 57.25 million yuan, accounting for 8.48% of the total investment. The project will build a new 300,000 mt/year methanol plant, using coke oven gas and calcium carbide furnace gas as raw materials, with supporting utilities including conversion, synthesis, distillation, air separation, a methanol tank farm, and a flare. Raw material gas demand is 58,775.8 Nm³/h of coke oven gas and 11,202.8 Nm³/h of calcium carbide furnace gas. CGN New Energy Holdings Co., Ltd.: The tender for the feasibility study report preparation service for the CGN New Energy Yunnan Chuxiong Wind and Solar Integrated Green Ammonia Synthesis Project has announced the winning bidder. A consortium composed of China Energy Engineering Group Yunnan Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. and China Huanqiu Contracting & Engineering Co., Ltd. won the bid. This project is included in the 2026 Yunnan Province Green Electricity Hydrogen Production Integration Demonstration Project List and is Yunnan's first wind and solar integrated green ammonia project. The project is sited in the chemical industry area of Chuxiong Yundian Industrial Park, leveraging 143.75 MW of wind and solar clean energy resources around the park, using a water electrolysis process to prepare green hydrogen, and then combining it with nitrogen from air separation to synthesize green ammonia, achieving green and low-carbon production throughout the entire process. The project occupies approximately 140 mu, with a hydrogen production scale of 9,000 Nm³/h. After completion, it is expected to produce 4,300 mt of green hydrogen annually, with a supporting facility to produce 35,000 mt/year of green ammonia. Sinopec Qingdao Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. : The new energy team from Sinopec Qingdao Refining & Chemical conducted a field survey at Lankun Hydrogen Energy. The two parties plan to jointly build an innovative demonstration project for seawater floating PV off-grid hydrogen production, pioneering a new path for the industrialisation of marine green hydrogen. The project adopts an isolated grid operation mode, where power generated by the floating PV is supplied directly to Lankun's atmospheric pressure hydrogen production system without needing to be connected to the public power grid, creating a closed-loop model of "seawater floating PV directly connected to atmospheric pressure hydrogen production." This solution can avoid pain points such as grid connection approvals, grid consumption, and large-scale energy storage support, producing green hydrogen to replace traditional grey hydrogen and promoting the enterprise's green and low-carbon transformation. Hunan Guoye New Energy Co., Ltd. : The Miluo Municipal National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the record-filing certificate for the Tianjingshan 48 MW vertical-axis wind farm supporting PEM hydrogen production project, marking the official completion of project filing. This project is invested and constructed by Hunan Guoye New Energy Co., Ltd., located at Tianjing Village, Tianjingshan, Luojiang Town, Miluo City. Relying on green electricity from a 48 MW vertical-axis wind farm, it will use PEM water electrolysis technology to produce green hydrogen. The project is designed for a hydrogen production scale of 13,350 Nm³/h, with an annual green hydrogen output of 3,000 mt, and will be constructed in two phases with a total investment of 240 million yuan. Phase one will produce 1,080 mt/year of green hydrogen with an investment of 90 million yuan; phase two will produce 1,920 mt/year with an investment of 150 million yuan. The project will construct PEM electrolysers, purification units, hydrogen storage facilities, and related supporting works. CGN New Energy (Lufeng) Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​ : The Shanwei Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment issued a pre-approval public notice for the "Environmental Impact Report for the Integrated Energy Island Onshore Test Base Project (Phase II)." The project is invested and constructed by CGN New Energy (Lufeng) Co., Ltd., sited in the Dishui Village area of Jieshi Town, Lufeng, Shanwei. The project will deploy 500 Nm³/h ALK and 200 Nm³/h PEM electrolysers for hydrogen production testing, with an annual hydrogen production of 700,000 Nm³ and a total hydrogen storage scale of 1,050 kg. It will be equipped with hydrogen supply and utilisation devices such as fuel cells and hydrogen dispensers, as well as facilities including a marine climate simulation environmental chamber and a floating sway test platform, excluding tests related to green ammonia production, storage, and transportation. The total project investment is 42.44 million yuan, with environmental protection investment of 300,000 yuan. Zhongyuan Oilfield Branch Company​​​​​​​: Petroleum Engineering Machinery successfully won the bid for the electrolytic water hydrogen production unit Balance of Plant (BOP) project at Zhongyuan Oilfield. It will provide core supporting equipment for China's first domestically produced 1,000 Nm³/h-class PEM electrolytic water hydrogen production demonstration project, supporting Sinopec's large-scale deployment of green hydrogen. The BOP equipment won in this bid has a rated hydrogen production capacity of no less than 1,000 Nm³/h, with system operating flexibility covering 10%–125%, capable of matching fluctuating wind and solar green electricity conditions. The output hydrogen purity reaches 99.999%, meeting various high-purity hydrogen application requirements. Zhangye Dawei Energy Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: The signing and groundbreaking meeting for the Zhangye Dawei Energy industrial tail gas resource utilisation coupled with renewable energy for green hydrogen and green methanol demonstration project was held at the headquarters of China Chengda Engineering Co., Ltd. The project will be located in the Circular Economy Demonstration Park of the Zhangye Economic and Technological Development Zone in Gansu, serving as a provincial-level key new energy demonstration project. The project will adopt Chengda's proprietary low-pressure methanol synthesis process, supported by a 10,000 m³-class water electrolysis hydrogen production unit. It will utilise local wind and solar power to produce green hydrogen, coupled with industrial tail gas to produce green methanol. Upon completion, it is expected to achieve an annual green methanol capacity of 500,000 mt. Huzhou Municipal Development and Reform Commission : Huzhou Renhuang Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd. issued a competitive consultation announcement for the Huzhou Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Research Project. The project budget and maximum price limit are both 180,000 yuan, and consortium bids are not accepted. Policy Review​ 1. The General Office of the National Energy Administration issued a notice to publicly solicit opinions on the 2026 energy sector industry standard development and revision plan and the foreign language translation plan. Among them, the 2026 energy sector industry standard development plan involves 43 hydrogen energy standard projects. Standard categories include safety, products, methods, engineering construction, and management. 2. The Bureau of Ecology and Environment of Dadukou District, Chongqing, issued a notice to publicly solicit opinions and suggestions on the "Dadukou District '15th Five-Year Plan' Beautiful Dadukou Construction Plan (Draft for Comments)." The document indicates accelerating low-carbon upgrades of transportation equipment. Following municipal requirements, it will accelerate the retirement of old operating ships, encourage enterprises to build new energy and clean energy ships, and promote the green transformation of waterway transportation. It will accelerate the elimination and renewal of old gas vehicles and promote the use of new energy for newly added and updated urban public service vehicles across the district, including buses, taxis, urban logistics, sanitation, and postal vehicles. Efforts to promote hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be intensified to drive energy conservation and carbon reduction in the transportation sector. 3. The Energy Administration of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued a notice to publicly solicit opinions and suggestions on the "Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Renewable Energy Hydrogen Production Industry Safety Management Measures (Draft for Comments)." The "Measures" state that the site selection and layout of green hydrogen construction projects should comply with territorial spatial planning and the "three zones and three lines" control requirements, and should fully consider cross-safety risks. The construction of green hydrogen projects and integrated hydrogen production and refuelling stations outside chemical industrial parks is permitted. Green hydrogen projects do not require a hazardous chemical production safety permit, etc. Enterprise Developments​​ Beijing Hypert Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd.: ​​​​​​​ The production ceremony for the upgraded hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty truck H49 production line was grandly held at the New Chufeng Manufacturing Base. This upgrade was comprehensively advanced in three directions: intelligence, automation, and quality. New cab sub-assembly lines, fuel cell sub-assembly lines, and power battery and chassis sub-assembly lines were added. Advanced equipment such as AGVs, glass gluing robots, and electric assembly tools were introduced. Production stations were optimised and restructured, with multiple new quality inspection checkpoints added, achieving dual improvements in production efficiency and manufacturing quality. Zhejiang Guwei Technology Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​ : It officially launched a strategic cooperation on hydrogen sensors with Seek Treasure Co., Ltd. The two parties will focus on joint R&D in core technology optimisation, product performance upgrades, and localised adaptation development for hydrogen sensors. Shenzhen Pengfei Green Energy Development Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​: It issued its 2026 H1 performance forecast. The forecast shows that Pengfei Green Energy expects a net loss attributable to the parent company's shareholders of 10.5 million yuan to 15 million yuan in H1 2026, compared to a loss of 10.0004 million yuan in the same period last year. Deducted non-recurring profit or loss is expected to be a loss of 14 million yuan to 20 million yuan, compared to a loss of 21.4119 million yuan in the same period last year. Basic earnings per share are expected to be -0.008 yuan/share to -0.0114 yuan/share. Shaanxi Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​: Shaanxi Hydrogen Energy held a discussion meeting with State Grid Yulin Power Supply Company, focusing on grid access, direct green electricity supply, optimisation of electricity purchasing and sales business, and efficient utilisation of new energy power. CIMC Enric Holdings Limited​​​​​​​​​​​​​​: An anhydrous ammonia transport vehicle escorted the world's largest single shipment of green ammonia for export, with 3,750 mt of green ammonia produced in Da'an, Jilin, shipped from Lianyungang, Jiangsu, bound for South Korea, setting a new global single-shipment export record for green ammonia. Qingyang Public Transportation Group Co., Ltd. ​​​​​​​: The Qingyang Public Trading Center issued a competitive negotiation announcement for Package 2 of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle procurement project (third round) for Qingyang Public Transportation Group. The budget and maximum price limit for this section is 6.7568 million yuan, with plans to purchase 4 hydrogen fuel cell buses. The supply period is 45 calendar days after contract signing. The project implements post-qualification review, does not accept consortium bids, and is not a procurement project specifically targeted at small and medium-sized enterprises. Beiben Trucks Group Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​: Beiben Trucks signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with the Benxi Municipal People's Government, simultaneously advancing the Benxi Steel Union new energy heavy-duty truck project. At the event, Beiben Trucks and Benxi Steel Union signed a purchase order for 200 units of new energy heavy-duty trucks. Guangdong Yuntao Hydrogen Technology Co., Ltd.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​: The National Energy Administration announced the results of the renewal and expansion of the China-IRENA cooperation special working groups. Yuntao Hydrogen was successfully selected for both the Hydrogen Energy Working Group and the Energy Storage Working Group, becoming the only hydrogen energy enterprise to be shortlisted for two major working groups simultaneously. ​​Patent Applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​(China) published patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​(UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a ternary Fe-Ni-Mo non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity approaching that of platinum-based materials. Technology Footprints/Technical Specifications​​ 1. The latest scientific research achievement by Professor Hu Wenbin's team from Tianjin University was published online in the prestigious international academic journal Science. This research overcame the key challenge of precisely preparing platinum group catalysts, pioneering a new technical pathway for atomic-level precise preparation of platinum group catalysts. 2. Tong Lei and Liang Haiwei from the University of Science and Technology of China, along with Zhang Liang from Tsinghua University, proposed a carbon mesoporous deep engineering (CMDE) strategy. Using hollow mesoporous carbon spheres to regulate ionomer penetration depth, they resolved the inherent contradiction between kinetic activity and oxygen mass transfer in low-platinum fuel cells. They developed a PtCo low-platinum catalyst that combines poisoning resistance, high mass transfer, and excellent durability, achieving the power, activity, and durability indicators specified by the US DOE at an ultra-low platinum loading of 0.1 mgPt cm⁻². 3. Professor Li Zhipeng's team from Northwestern Polytechnical University innovatively constructed a three-dimensional multi-physics coupled model for tubular solid oxide fuel cells, systematically revealing the quantitative influence of temperature, electrode thickness, porosity, and oxygen domain geometric parameters on cell output performance. 4. The National Hydrogen Power Quality Inspection and Testing Center of China Automotive Engineering Research Institute built a 0-400kW hydrogen-related, load-bearing three-comprehensive vibration testing platform and opened it for commercial use, filling a gap in China for high-power hydrogen-related multi-physics coupled testing. 5. The high specific power cathode closed air-cooled stack technology developed by the team of Academician Chen Zhongwei and Associate Researcher Zhang Meng at the National Key Laboratory of Energy Catalytic Conversion, Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, passed the scientific and technological achievement appraisal by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation. This technology effectively solves the industry contradiction between water retention and oxygen mass transfer in air-cooled fuel cells, addressing technical challenges such as low-humidity performance degradation, carbon corrosion, dry membrane and flooding, and high-power thermal management.

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

On 29 July, Australian lithium producer Liontown released its quarterly report for the period ended 30 June 2026. The Kathleen Valley lithium project produced 103.1 kdmt of spodumene concentrate during the June quarter, up 7% QoQ, while sales increased 29.3% QoQ to 108.5 kdmt. Average shipped grade was 5.0% Li₂O, while the average realised price was US$1,880/dmt on an SC6e, CIF basis. For FY26, Kathleen Valley produced 392.0 kdmt of spodumene concentrate, within the company’s previous guidance range of 365–450 kdmt. Liontown issued a clarification on the same day to amend the units of reference used in its FY26 results and FY27 guidance, removing the previous references to SC6 from concentrate production and cost metrics. Accordingly, concentrate production is reported on an actual dry metric tonne basis, unit operating costs are calculated per dry metric tonne sold, while average realised prices continue to be reported on an SC6-equivalent basis. Kathleen Valley has gradually moved beyond the initial question of whether it can achieve stable production and is now entering the underground mining ramp-up phase. More importantly for the lithium market, however, the key signal from this quarter is not the amount of additional concentrate Liontown will produce in FY27. Rather, the previous recovery in lithium prices has strengthened Liontown’s cash flow and balance sheet sufficiently to support renewed investment in underground development and expansion. Supply elasticity is therefore showing up first in capital expenditure rather than in near-term tonnes. US$1,880/dmt Marks a Quarterly High for Liontown, but Remains Below the 2026 Market Average Liontown achieved an average realised price of US$1,880/dmt on an SC6e, CIF basis during the June quarter, only 1.9% higher than US$1,845/dmt in the previous quarter. From Liontown’s own pricing history, this represented the highest quarterly realised price in FY26. Kathleen Valley’s average realised prices across the four quarters of FY26 were US$691/dmt, US$985/dmt, US$1,845/dmt and US$1,880/dmt, respectively, with a full-year average of US$1,379/dmt. However, viewed against the broader spodumene market in 2026, US$1,880/dmt is not particularly high. Compared with SMM’s year-to-date average for SC6 CIF China, Liontown’s realised price during the quarter remained at a discount to the broader market average. This suggests that Liontown has not fully captured the magnitude of the increase previously seen in spot spodumene prices. Table 1. Kathleen Valley FY26 Production, Sales and Pricing Metric Q1 FY26 Q2 FY26 Q3 FY26 Q4 FY26 Spodumene concentrate production (dmt) 87,172 105,342 96,367 103,111 Spodumene concentrate sales (dmt) 77,474 112,122 83,912 108,489 Average shipped grade 5.00% 5.10% 5.10% 5.00% Average realised price (US$/dmt, SC6e) 691 985 1,845 1,880 Source: Liontown. One important explanation lies in the pricing mechanism of Liontown’s offtake agreements. The company stated that customer receipts during the quarter benefited from stronger lithium indices and offtake agreements with lagged quotation periods, meaning that some contract prices are determined using benchmark prices from earlier periods. Liontown’s realised price therefore does not immediately track the contemporaneous spot market. Instead, benchmark prices are transmitted into realised prices with a time lag through contractual pricing formulas. During a rising market, this mechanism can leave realised prices below spot prices. Conversely, when spot prices fall, the same lag can temporarily support realised prices above prevailing market levels. For earnings analysis, US$1,880/dmt should therefore not simply be interpreted as Liontown’s current market selling price. The more relevant indicator is the evolution of Liontown’s realised-price discount or premium relative to the SMM SC6 CIF China benchmark. In other words, Liontown generated the current improvement in cash flow even though its realised price remained below the 2026 market average. This suggests that Kathleen Valley has already developed relatively strong cash-generation capability under the current pricing environment. Prices Have Moved Through the Income Statement and Are Now Feeding into Capex Liontown generated A$235 million in revenue during the June quarter, with operating cash flow reaching A$180 million. Net cash increased by A$137 million during the quarter, taking the company’s cash balance from A$424 million at the end of March to A$561 million at the end of June. At the end of FY25, Liontown held only A$156 million in cash. Its cash balance has therefore increased by more than threefold over FY26. Management has also explicitly changed the language around capital allocation. Six months ago, the company’s capital discipline was primarily focused on strengthening the balance sheet. It has now shifted towards pursuing value-accretive growth. This represents the key capital-cycle signal in the quarterly report: Higher lithium prices → improved realised prices → stronger cash flow → balance-sheet repair → renewed underground development and expansion capex. Liontown has now moved into the latter part of this transmission chain. FY27 Production Increases by Only ~23 kt, While Capex Rises to Nearly Three Times FY26 Levels Based on Liontown’s clarified reporting basis, the company produced 392 kdmt of spodumene concentrate in FY26, with FOB unit operating costs of A$987/dmt sold, AISC of A$1,233/dmt, and total capital expenditure of A$114 million. For FY27, Liontown is guiding to spodumene concentrate production of 390–440 kdmt, FOB unit operating costs of A$1,050–1,250/dmt sold, and total capital expenditure of A$320–370 million. Table 2. Liontown FY26 Actuals vs FY27 Guidance Metric FY26 Actual FY27 Guidance Change at Midpoint Spodumene concentrate production (kdmt) 392 390–440 0.059 FOB unit operating cost (A$/dmt sold) 987 1,050–1,250 0.165 AISC (A$/dmt) 1,233 — — Total capital expenditure (A$m) 114 320–370 ~+203% Source: Liontown clarification dated 29 July. At the midpoint of FY27 production guidance, Kathleen Valley would produce approximately 415 kdmt, only around 23 kdmt more than FY26, representing growth of roughly 5.9%. By contrast, the midpoint of FY27 capex guidance is A$345 million, approximately three times FY26 expenditure. FY27 should therefore not simply be characterised as a year of production growth. A more accurate interpretation is: FY27 is a transition year in which production growth remains limited while substantial capital is deployed ahead of future capacity growth. This also illustrates the time lag between the recovery in lithium prices and the eventual supply response. Investment is responding first; additional physical tonnes will follow later. Why Are Unit Costs Rising from A$987/dmt to A$1,050–1,250/dmt? The increase in FY27 cost guidance is another important variable in the report. FY26 FOB unit operating costs averaged A$987/dmt sold, while FY27 guidance rises to A$1,050–1,250/dmt sold. At the midpoint of A$1,150/dmt, this represents an increase of approximately 16.5%. This should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that underground mining is structurally more expensive. Liontown has not provided a quantitative breakdown of the factors driving the FY27 unit-cost increase, but the report identifies several relevant factors. First, logistics costs have increased. June-quarter unit operating costs rose from A$981/dmt sold to A$995/dmt sold, with Liontown attributing the increase primarily to higher diesel prices resulting from conflict in the Middle East, which increased transportation costs. Second, underground mine development expenditure is increasing. Q4 FY26 AISC rose from A$1,251/dmt sold to A$1,314/dmt sold, mainly because underground mine development costs began to be recognised as sustaining capital following the declaration of commercial production. Third, FY27 production guidance incorporates both scheduled maintenance and additional downtime required to connect expansion infrastructure with the existing processing system. This downtime has an important secondary effect: even if absolute fixed costs remain unchanged, lower saleable volumes mechanically increase costs on an A$/dmt sold basis. The increase in FY27 costs therefore appears to reflect a combination of: higher energy and logistics costs + increased underground development expenditure + fixed-cost dilution associated with planned downtime. These drivers have different degrees of persistence. If underground operations stabilise, recoveries improve and expansion-related downtime declines, some of the FY27 cost pressure could unwind. However, if underground mining itself carries materially higher unit mining costs, Kathleen Valley’s long-term cost base could shift structurally higher. Further FY27 operating data will be required to distinguish between these two outcomes. At this stage, there is insufficient evidence to treat the A$1,050–1,250/dmt FY27 range as Kathleen Valley’s new long-term normalised cost level. Underground Ore Mined Falls 12%, While Development Metres Rise 35% Kathleen Valley’s mining data also display characteristics typical of an underground mine in ramp-up. Underground ore mined during the June quarter fell 12% QoQ to 356 kt. However, underground development increased 35% QoQ to a record 3,316 metres. This suggests that Liontown is not simply maximising near-term ore extraction. Instead, it is developing additional underground headings and mining areas to support higher future mining rates. The company plans to maintain an underground mining run rate of approximately 1.5 Mtpa in Q1 FY27, before beginning the next stage of the ramp-up in Q2 FY27, with a target of reaching a 2.8 Mtpa annualised mining run rate by the end of FY27. Processing recovery represents a second potential source of production growth. Kathleen Valley processed 647 kt of ore during the June quarter at an average feed grade of 1.3% Li₂O, while lithium recovery improved from 61% to 63%. Underground ore accounted for 55% of plant feed. Liontown stated that when the plant processes sustained campaigns of cleaner underground ore, lithium recoveries can consistently reach approximately 70%. Future concentrate production therefore depends on two separate variables: Mining rate determines how much ore is available; recovery determines how much concentrate can be produced from that ore. If underground mining rates and plant recoveries improve simultaneously, Kathleen Valley could benefit from both higher ore availability and better conversion into concentrate. Conversely, even if the 2.8 Mtpa annualised mining-rate target is achieved, sustained recovery of only around 63% would result in lower concentrate production than the theoretical mining capacity might otherwise imply. FY27 Guidance Should Not Be Treated as 100% Certain Supply For a project still ramping up underground operations, company guidance should not be treated as guaranteed supply. Based on Kathleen Valley’s current operating position, SMM applies the following scenario framework to FY27 concentrate production: Table 3. Kathleen Valley FY27 Production Scenarios Scenario Key Assumptions FY27 Concentrate Production Probability Bull Underground development progresses to plan; recovery approaches 68–70%; limited impact from planned downtime 430–440 kdmt 20% Base Underground ramp-up broadly on schedule; 2.8 Mtpa run rate reached mainly toward FY27-end; recovery at 63–66% 400–420 kdmt 60% Bear Development, equipment utilisation or recovery underperforms; downtime exceeds expectations 370–390 kdmt 20% The 20%/60%/20% probabilities represent SMM’s analytical risk-weighting assumptions based on the project’s current stage, rather than Liontown guidance or statistically derived historical probabilities. Under this framework, probability-weighted FY27 concentrate production would be approximately 410 kdmt, slightly below the 415 kdmt midpoint of company guidance. These probabilities can be updated as Liontown reports Q1 FY27 underground development, ore mined, recovery rates and actual downtime. FY27 Underground Ramp-Up and the Expansion FID Need to Be Analysed Separately One important distinction is that Liontown’s FY27 production guidance of 390–440 kdmt does not represent post-expansion production. The company has explicitly stated that its FY27 guidance assumes no final investment decision has yet been made on the Kathleen Valley Expansion. The current A$320–370 million capex guidance includes the remaining early works announced in April, but excludes additional expansion capital expenditure that would follow a positive FID. The two sources of future supply therefore require different risk adjustments: FY27: discount for underground ramp-up and operational execution risk. FY28 onward: apply additional discounts for FID, capital requirements, construction schedule, plant integration and ramp-up risk. Liontown has already commenced early works and long-lead procurement ahead of the formal FID, including the purchase of a 5.5 MW ball mill designed to increase processing capacity and improve grinding control and recovery. A formal FID is expected by the end of Q1 FY27. The expansion has therefore moved beyond the stage of being merely an announced project. However, this does not mean that the expansion’s full incremental capacity should automatically be included in the FY28 supply balance. FID does not equal on-time commissioning, and on-time commissioning does not equal immediate achievement of nameplate capacity. Kathleen Valley’s ~23 kt FY27 Increment Is Small in the Context of Australian Spodumene Supply At the midpoint of guidance, Kathleen Valley would add only around 23 kt of spodumene concentrate in FY27 compared with FY26. Using standard industry SC6 conversion assumptions, this represents only several thousand tonnes of LCE, making it a marginal addition to a global lithium market measured in millions of tonnes of LCE. The scale becomes clearer when compared with other established Australian assets. Following completion of P1000, PLS’s Pilgangoora operation has reached nominal spodumene concentrate capacity of approximately 1 Mtpa. PLS has also approved the restart of the approximately 200 ktpa Ngungaju processing plant in 2026. Meanwhile, Wesfarmers and SQM have recently approved A$1.45 billion of investment to expand Mt Holland, targeting an increase in spodumene concentrate capacity from approximately 380 ktpa to 760 ktpa, although first incremental production is not expected until around 2030. Liontown’s quarterly report therefore does not materially change the FY27 global spodumene supply balance. Its broader significance lies elsewhere: Kathleen Valley provides a clear example of how improving lithium economics are beginning to reactivate capital expenditure across established Australian assets. What the market is currently seeing is therefore a leading indicator of future supply elasticity, rather than the supply itself. SMM View: Liontown Is Signalling That Capital Is Returning Before Supply Does Liontown’s quarterly report has limited direct implications for the near-term spodumene supply-demand balance. The midpoint of FY27 concentrate production guidance is only around 23 kt above FY26 actual production. Even if fully achieved, this would not represent a material addition to global lithium supply. The more significant change is in capital deployment. Liontown ended FY26 with A$561 million of cash, while FY27 capital expenditure guidance has increased from A$114 million in FY26 to A$320–370 million. The company is increasing underground development, procuring expansion equipment ahead of FID and targeting an Expansion FID around the end of September. Kathleen Valley therefore illustrates a four-stage supply response: Higher prices → stronger cash flow → capex recovery → incremental production. Liontown is currently moving from the second stage into the third. The quarterly report therefore cannot be reduced to a simple narrative of “higher lithium prices → Liontown increases production → supply pressure rises.” The actual FY27 volume increase is limited, while the supply associated with today’s capital expenditure will predominantly emerge from FY28 onward. For the global lithium market, the more important question is whether the same pattern is beginning to emerge simultaneously across high-quality Australian brownfield assets. Pilgangoora has completed P1000 and is restarting Ngungaju; Mt Holland has approved A$1.45 billion of expansion investment; and other Australian assets, including Mt Marion, are also seeing renewed capital deployment. If improving lithium economics continue to reactivate expansion spending across existing mines, medium-term supply elasticity could prove materially greater than suggested by looking only at incremental production over the next 12 months. For Liontown itself, the next event that matters more than another ordinary quarterly production number will be the Kathleen Valley Expansion FID expected around the end of September. At that point, the key variables for the supply model will not simply be whether the project is expanded, but the targeted capacity, capital intensity, construction schedule and ramp-up timeline. Those four variables will ultimately determine when the capital being deployed today becomes physical spodumene concentrate entering the market. SMM New Energy Analyst Lesley Yang yangle@smm.cn

On July 28, 2026, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) issued a notice announcing its final antidumping duty (AD) determinations on steel concrete reinforcing bar (rebar) imports from Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam. The DOC determined dumping margins of 53.27% for Bulgarian exporters/producers, 34.20%–52.73% for Egyptian exporters/producers, and 128.53%–136.57% for Vietnamese exporters/producers (with cash deposit rates adjusted to 123.49%–131.53% after offsetting subsidies). Concurrently, the DOC made final countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on rebar imports from Egypt and Vietnam, setting subsidy rates of 23.27% for Egyptian enterprises (while finding no transnational subsidies) and 6.80% for Vietnamese enterprises. The case primarily involves products under US HS codes 7213.10.0000, 7214.20.0000, and 7228.30.8010. On June 25, 2025, the DOC initiated AD and CVD investigations on rebar imports from Algeria, Egypt, and Vietnam, and concurrently launched an AD investigation on rebar imports from Bulgaria. On December 17, 2025, the DOC issued a preliminary AD determination on rebar imports from Algeria. On January 9, 2026, the DOC issued preliminary CVD determinations on rebar imports from Algeria, Egypt, and Vietnam. On March 10, 2026, the DOC issued preliminary AD determinations on rebar imports from Bulgaria, Egypt, and Vietnam. On March 3, 2026, the DOC issued a final AD determination on rebar imports from Algeria. On March 25, 2026, the DOC issued a final CVD determination on rebar imports from Algeria.

China formally ended the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products on April 1, 2026. In the first days after implementation, higher export costs and the renegotiation of existing contracts briefly lifted some module offers. That support proved short-lived.

Around July 20, 2026, June import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain related products were released in a concentrated manner. The data showed that China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. For lithium carbonate, China imported 25,861 mt in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Cumulative lithium carbonate imports from January to June reached 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY... SMM compiled the H1 import and export situation of battery materials as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In June 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. By source country: The effect of concentrated shipments from Australia at its fiscal year-end manifested, with port arrivals exceeding 370,000 mt in June, up 12% MoM. Mali: Port arrivals increased significantly MoM to 60,000 mt. South Africa and Nigeria maintained stable output, with port arrivals staying above 110,000 mt. Among them, the share of high-grade ore from Nigeria increased, with concentrates accounting for over 65%. Zimbabwe, affected by transportation efficiency earlier, saw arrivals of 42,000 mt in June, which pulled back MoM. Based on SMM's data screening, the total LCE equivalent of incoming ore in June was 72,000 mt. Notably, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore fell to 72%, a MoM decline, mainly because most of the 65,000 mt from Brazil was previously traded lithium raw ore powder, which dragged down the overall concentrate share. In June 2026, China's total imports of lithium raw materials (spodumene + lithium sulfate) approached 80,000 mt of LCE, staying in a high range and providing a solid raw material base for the continuously climbing domestic lithium chemical production. Spodumene: Import Volume Continues to Rise, Australian Fiscal Year-End Push Contributes Significantly In June, China's spodumene imports reached 768,000 mt in physical content, up 13% MoM and surging 33% YoY, equivalent to approximately 72,000 mt of LCE. The import volume has maintained high growth for several consecutive months, reflecting that domestic lithium chemical plants' rigid demand for upstream ore remains strong. Source: China Customs, Compiled by SMM From a grade structure perspective, based on SMM's data screening, the proportion of lithium concentrates in total incoming ore in June fell to 72%, a MoM decline. The main drag was Brazil—its arrivals of 65,000 mt that month were mostly previously traded lithium raw ore powder; the concentrated arrivals of such low-grade minerals directly pulled down the overall proportion of concentrates. Besides spodumene, the import performance of another lithium raw material, lithium sulfate, is also worth noting. In June, China's lithium sulfate imports reached 13,500 mt, up 12% MoM, equivalent to over 7,700 mt of LCE. From the source perspective, Chile continued to dominate the supply landscape of this product with an absolute volume of 13,400 mt. Meanwhile, lithium sulfate imports from Zimbabwe also quietly rose to over one hundred mt. Although the absolute volume is still small, as the first batch shipment of lithium sulfate to China from the country, it marked the first step for subsequent regular supply growth from Zimbabwe. Summary: Raw material support was solid in June, but tightening expectations for the availability side are rising in July. In terms of total volume, combined imports of spodumene and lithium sulfate in June were equivalent to nearly 80,000 mt of LCE. Together with domestic lithium concentrate production of over 30,000 mt, total domestic lithium raw material supply reached over 110,000 mt of LCE in the month, providing ample and relatively solid raw material support for lithium chemical production fluctuating at highs in June. However, beneath the relatively optimistic aggregate data, one key variable deserves attention: Most of the June arrivals had their destinations locked in through orders weeks or even months earlier, with only a low proportion of cargo actually entering the freely tradeable circulation of traders. The continuation of this pre-locked structure means that entering July, the available volume for spot lithium ore in the spot market will remain tight. If downstream just-in-time procurement pace stays unchanged, the tightening of circulating supply will constrain lithium chemical plants' flexibility in securing raw materials to some extent, thereby limiting the further room for lithium carbonate production growth in July—a transmission effect already reflected in SMM's recent weekly lithium carbonate production data. Regarding spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China), SMM data showed that the overall trend in June was a decline. As of June 30, the average spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) was $2,260/mt, down $328/mt from $2,588/mt at the beginning of the month, representing a 12.67% decline. According to SMM, in June, enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased spodumene saw their spot profits fall into deep losses. The losses continued to widen during the month, mainly because spodumene concentrate prices pulled back along with lithium carbonate but to a limited extent. In June, the decline in spodumene concentrate prices was less than that of lithium chemicals, leading to deepening losses in the processing segment. For externally purchased lepidolite, the immediate profit margin of enterprises extracting lithium from externally purchased lepidolite narrowed in June compared to May, but they still maintained positive immediate profits for the full month. The resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi strengthened market expectations for longer-term supply release, and lithium carbonate futures plummeted 6.58% on the day. Additionally, the lithium carbonate market experienced an extreme trend of "sharp decline—weak rebound—further bottoming" in the fourth week of June, further squeezing the profit margins of enterprises relying on externally purchased ore. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 25,861 mt of lithium carbonate in June, down 31% MoM but up 46% YoY. Of this, imports from Chile reached 16,037 mt, accounting for 62% of the total; imports from Argentina were 8,403 mt, representing 32% of the total; and imports from Indonesia stood at 500 mt, making up 2% of the total. China's cumulative imports of lithium carbonate from January to June totaled 179,000 mt, up 52% YoY. In May, China exported 261 mt of lithium carbonate, up 30% MoM but down 39% YoY. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 2,348 mt, down 5.6% YoY. According to SMM spot price data, the spot price of lithium carbonate generally declined in June. As of June 30, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell to 156,500 yuan/mt, a drop of 22,500 yuan/mt from 179,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of June, representing a decline of 12.57%. SMM understands that the price center of spot lithium carbonate in China drifted lower in June. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side was disrupted by news of mine license renewals in Jiangxi, and China's lithium carbonate imports reached historic highs in May, while GFEX warrants remained elevated around 50,000 mt. The demand growth expectations were within market expectations, leading to a drift lower in prices. Upstream lithium chemical plants showed weak willingness to sell spot orders, maintaining an attitude of holding prices firm and holding back from selling; downstream material plants and battery cell manufacturers adopted a buy-the-dip strategy, engaging in substantial dip-buying for stockpiling when prices fell below 160,000 yuan/mt. As of July 23, the spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 3,500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, reaching 142,000-151,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 146,500 yuan/mt. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in June 2026, China imported 4,400 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 12% MoM and surging nearly 2-fold YoY. By source country, imports from South Korea were 1,159 mt (26% of total), Chile ranked second with 993 mt, and notably, imports from Indonesia remained low at only 774 mt in June. In exports, China’s lithium hydroxide exports in June reached 6,018 mt, up 70% MoM, mainly driven by concentrated quarter-end shipments and a modest recovery in overseas demand. Of this total, exports to South Korea were 5,032 mt, and to Japan 679 mt. Overall, exports significantly exceeded imports during the month, and China's lithium hydroxide trade temporarily returned to a net export position after many months. Battery Materials LFP In June 2026, China’s LFP cathode export market experienced an "explosive" growth with both volume and price rising. June total exports reached 15,379.6 mt, surging 101.7% MoM from May, setting a new monthly record high. Along with the jump in export volume, the average monthly export price rose to $9,125.1/mt, an increase of about 11.1%. Price side, generally, raw material exports would see price declines due to scale effects, but in June, the average LFP export price ($9,125.1/mt), compared with May’s $8,210/mt, rose by $915/mt, mainly driven by cost pass-through: domestic lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices both rose in June, directly pushing up export prices. June exports doubling MoM confirmed our assessment in last month’s flash report — “overseas demand remained robust, with several-fold YoY growth.” Overseas battery capacity is in a critical transition phase from “start-up” to “ramp-up,” creating a “rising volume and price” dividend period for the industry. For domestic material enterprises, locking in long-term contracts with core clients in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, and enhancing technological barriers, will be key to capturing high-premium overseas market share in H2. (Data sources: SMM and customs import/export statistics) [SMM Analysis] Volume and Price Both Surge! China’s LFP Exports Soared 101% MoM in June, Average Price Exceeded $9,100/Mt, Hitting a New High for the Year LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in June 2026, China’s cumulative LiPF6 exports were approximately 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM, and cumulative LiPF6 imports were around 24.4 mt. In exports, China’s LiPF6 exports in June 2026 were about 1,104.4 mt, down about 26.4% MoM from May and down about 21.4% YoY. Specifically, major destinations included Poland (336.8 mt, down 25.47% MoM), South Korea (319.738 mt, down 45.9% MoM), Malaysia (113.211 mt, down 28.03% MoM), the US (157.601 mt, up 103.62% MoM), and Japan (115.56 mt, up 5.2% MoM). Overall, procurement volume of LiPF6 from outside China edged down in June. Artificial Graphite In June 2026, China's artificial graphite imports stood at 1,002 mt, up 2.3% MoM and up 3.3% YoY. As for import average price, in June 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite was 59,596 yuan/mt, down 0.9% MoM but up 16.6% YoY. Data sources: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's artificial graphite exports stood at 41,601 mt, down 16.9% MoM and down 18.7% YoY. As for export average price, in June 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,080 yuan/mt, up 17.5% MoM and up 13.9% YoY. Import side, volume and price fluctuations were relatively mild, and overall operations were stable. Export side, however, showed a 'volume down, price up' differentiation characteristic: the decline in export volume may be related to the high base in May and adjustments in overseas procurement pace at a certain stage; the rise in export average price was mainly driven by the continued pass-through of high domestic costs. Notably, although total exports declined, shipments of artificial graphite for lithium batteries from major exporting provinces showed a rebound, with one province's exports surging about 50% MoM and another province's MoM growth approaching 25%. Flake Graphite In June 2026, China's flake graphite imports stood at 4,147 mt, down 30% MoM and down 12% YoY. Data sources: China Customs, SMM In June 2026, China's flake graphite exports stood at 5,089 mt, down 33% MoM and down 5% YoY. In June, both imports and exports of flake graphite saw significant MoM declines, primarily due to the high base effect in May and seasonal demand adjustments in and outside China, with relatively mild YoY declines. Phosphoric Acid According to China Customs data, in Q2 2026, China's phosphoric acid exports exhibited a clear retreat after rapid rise, with exports shooting up to 40,200 mt in May before pulling back to 29,500 mt in June, down 26.5% MoM, but still achieved positive YoY growth compared to June last year (up 3,500 mt), as the continued expansion of rigid demand for new energy outside China offset the short-term pacing pullback. Based on the full-year policy pace and industry fundamentals, China's phosphoric acid trade is now displaying the distinct characteristics of zero imports, pure exports, strong policy-driven volatility, and continuous structural upgrade , with annual exports being influenced by both the agricultural input supply assurance policies and the seasonal cycles in and outside China, leading to an overall pattern of regular consolidating movements. ....... Based on the operating pace in H1 and considering the current policy cycle, overseas demand rhythm, and domestic spot fundamentals, in H2 2026 (July–August), the phosphoric acid industry remains in the window period for phosphate fertiliser export controls, with agricultural crude phosphoric acid exports restricted and the overall export volume subject to a natural ceiling. Supported by the release of off-season restocking demand from overseas food and energy storage enterprises, phosphoric acid exports are expected to recover slightly from the June low, returning to above the monthly average of 30,000 mt, slightly offsetting the pressure of inventory buildup during the domestic agricultural off-season and using the resilience of external demand to firm up the market bottom. Entering September–December, the industry fundamentals and foreign trade landscape will see significant improvement. On August 31, the phosphate fertiliser export control policy officially expires. Coupled with concentrated restocking by overseas agricultural input companies in Q4, year-end capacity sprint by domestic LFP enterprises, and concentrated delivery of overseas lithium battery long-term contract orders, phosphoric acid exports will enter the peak period of the year, with monthly export volume expected to exceed 40,000 mt and hit a new high for the year. The industry’s overall export volume and trade surplus will rise simultaneously. The dual boost from domestic and external demand will drive the industry’s market conditions into an upward inflection point, with not only wet process phosphoric acid demand continuing to recover, but thermal process phosphoric acid also benefiting from concentrated stockpiling in food and electronic fine chemicals, strengthening simultaneously, ushering in a peak season where both wet and thermal processes thrive. Phosphate Ore In H1 2026 (January–June), China’s phosphate ore imports stood at 998,200 mt, up 29.66% YoY; exports at 133,900 mt, up 225.91% YoY; net imports at 864,300 mt. Four Key Changes 1. Imports Recovered to the 2024 High Level . H1 2026 imports of 998,200 mt grew 29.66% from 769,800 mt in H1 2025, recovering to the level of 986,600 mt in H1 2024. In 2026, the single-month high was 243,900 mt in January, followed by secondary peaks of 206,600 mt in April and 182,100 mt in March. The import side rebounded significantly from the trough of 769,800 mt in H1 2025, confirming that the "high import" center has been established since 2024. 2. Exports Tripled, Hitting a Nearly 4-Year High . H1 2026 exports of 133,900 mt surged 225.91% from 41,100 mt in H1 2025, the highest level since H1 2023 (191,300 mt). In June alone, imports reached 50,900 mt, followed by 32,200 mt in May and 11,100 mt in April, forming a volume expansion structure in Q2, which closely aligns with the event window of Egypt's announcement on May 13 to halt new phosphate ore export contracts (shifting to higher value-added phosphate fertiliser exports). 3. Net imports remain high but narrowed . In 2026 H1, net imports stood at 864,300 mt, significantly higher than 942,800 mt in 2024 H1 (historical peak) and 728,700 mt in 2025 H1, reflecting the persistent supply gap of phosphate ore in China and continued high external dependence. 4. The seasonal pattern between H1 and H2 was disrupted. Historically, H1 imports were typically lower than H2 (cumulative H2 imports from 2020 to 2025 reached 2.7531 million mt, significantly higher than H1), but 2026 H1 imports of 998,200 mt already approached 2025 H2's 949,900 mt—the traditional winter stockpiling season in Q3-Q4 was delayed, and the import pace became more evenly distributed throughout the year. ......... Outlook for H2: Imports: H1 imports already reached 998,200 mt , and with winter stockpiling procurement + LFP cathode material stockpiling (preparing for the NEV peak season in Q3-Q4), 2026 H2 imports are expected to reach 1.1-1.3 million mt, with full-year imports at 2.1-2.3 million mt, up 15%-25% YoY, marking a historical high since 2023. Exports : June's 50,900 mt already showed signs of acceleration, with July-September exports projected at 100,000-200,000 mt. In Q4, driven by overseas demand (India, Southeast Asia, Brazil) + export competition restructuring among Egypt/Jordan/Morocco, full-year exports are expected at 200,000-300,000 mt, up 200%-300% YoY. Net imports: 2026 net imports are projected at 1.7-2 million mt, remaining at historically high levels, reflecting the persistent undersupply of phosphate ore in China and continued rising dependence on overseas sources (Egypt/Jordan/Morocco/Kazakhstan/Peru/Algeria). Sulphur & Sulphuric Acid China's Monthly Sulphur Imports (2025 H1 vs. 2026 H1) In 2026 H1, China's sulphur imports showed a "monthly accelerating contraction" trend. Cumulative imports from January to June were approximately 2.26 million mt , a sharp decline of 57.7% compared to 5.34 million mt in the same period of 2025, with average monthly imports plummeting from around 800,000 mt in 2025 to about 380,000 mt. On a monthly basis, imports in January–March stayed around 500,000 mt (496,000/538,000/516,000 mt); from April, they plunged off a cliff , with April plunging to 296,000 mt and May to 268,000 mt, and June hitting 147,000 mt (down 85.1% YoY) — June monthly imports fell to less than 20% of the same period in 2025 (988,000 mt). Historically, total imports in 2025 were about 9.61 million mt , with a monthly average of about 800,000 mt and stable volume, while the 147,000 mt in June 2026 marked a rarely seen low in recent years . If geopolitical conflicts and Kazakhstan's export ban persist, H2 imports may face further pressure, with the full-year total expected to be only about 40% of the 2025 level . ....... Sulphur Imports: Volume Plunge and Source Restructuring — In H1 2026, imports were about 2.26 million mt, down 57.7% YoY (June down 85% YoY); the share of four Middle Eastern countries was cut in half (from ~35% to ~20%), with South Korea, Oman, and Canada filling the gap (combined ~58%). Sulphuric Acid Exports: Ban Leads to Zero Clearance — In H1 2026, exports were about 780,000 mt, down 64% YoY; June exports were only about 980 mt, down 99.7% YoY , plunging out of the global market; Indonesia emerged as the top destination. Common Logic: The dual effects of geopolitical conflict and export controls have pushed China from a global sulphur resource hub towards self-preserving contraction. In terms of cobalt, Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In June 2026, China's imports of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products totaled about 10,961 mt in physical content, up 324% MoM and down 42% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were about 10,815 mt in physical content, up 423% MoM and down 43% YoY. The average import price of cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in June 2026 was $16,352/mt, down 1.54% MoM. Out of the monthly imported intermediate products, about 7,561 mt in physical content entered Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces via Entrepot Trade by Customs Special Control Area, accounting for 69% of total imports; ordinary trade accounted for about 2,849 mt in physical content, or 26%; and processing trade with imported materials accounted for about 550 mt in physical content, or 5%. Unwrought Cobalt In June 2026, China's imports of unwrought cobalt were about 1,120 mt, up 66% MoM and up 105% YoY. In June, by country, the top three sources of refined cobalt imports were Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 476 mt, 293 mt, and 148 mt, respectively. Although China's refined cobalt price pulled back significantly in June, the import and export windows remained fully closed. However, due to weak ex-China refined cobalt demand, some overseas traders still chose to ship refined cobalt to China, leading to a significant increase in imports. China's average unwrought cobalt import price in June 2026 was $52,228/mt, down 4.27% MoM. Cumulative imports in January-June 2026 were 7,709 mt, up 118% YoY. On the export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in June 2026 were approximately 503 mt, up 36% MoM and down 46% YoY. By country, the top three export destinations were the US, Taiwan, China, and the Netherlands, with exports of 132 mt, 125 mt, and 66 mt, respectively. The average export price of unwrought cobalt from China in June 2026 was $59,579/mt, up 11.56% MoM. Cumulative exports in January-June 2026 were 2,664 mt, down 76% YoY.

[SMM Rare Earth Newsflash] Aclara Resources, a Canadian rare earth developer, announced that its U.S. subsidiary Aclara Technologies was selected for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Genesis Mission initiative, receiving federal funding support to utilize artificial intelligence to optimize the separation process of heavy rare earth elements. The project will develop an AI-assisted digital twin system, integrating data from Virginia Tech’s separation pilot plant and simulation technology from Argonne National Laboratory to improve rare earth recovery rates, purity, and production stability. Aclara’s pilot plant in Blacksburg, Virginia, was commissioned in March this year, providing technical support for its $277 million commercial separation project in Louisiana. The plant plans to start production in mid-2028, with an annual output of 1,131 mt of Pr-Nd, 148 mt of dysprosium, and 25 mt of terbium.