SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,843/mt, fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,722/mt, then rose in a stepwise manner and climbed to $12,987/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,964.5/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 40,500 lots, and open interest reached 307,000 lots, down 4,847 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2704 contract opened at 100,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 100,200 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and hit a high of 101,530 yuan/mt near the close, finally settling at 101,330 yuan/mt, down 1.05%. Trading volume reached 92,000 lots, and open interest reached 194,000 lots, down 3,792 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position reductions.

【SMM Morning Brief Nickel 2.24】During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), the domestic SHFE nickel market was closed, while LME nickel prices showed a rebound. The nickel sulphate market was relatively quiet during the holiday, with purchasing and sales activities largely halted. On the production side, some producers maintained operations, while others suspended production for maintenance.

I. Nickel Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15–23), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, while overseas LME nickel prices showed a rebound. Pre-holiday surge: Before the holiday, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it would lock the 2026 nickel ore RKAB mining quota at approximately 260 million mt. Boosted by this positive news, market sentiment turned bullish. On February 11, LME nickel once surged to $18,070/mt, with the LME nickel 3M contract closing at $17,880/mt that day, a single-day increase of 2.93%. Post-holiday pullback then rebound: After the Chinese New Year holiday began (after February 16), domestic SHFE nickel was closed, and the pre-holiday positive news was digested. During this period, the US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on LME nickel prices, which pulled back. On February 17, LME nickel closed at $16,830/mt, down 1.81% from the previous trading day. From February 18 to 20, influenced by a tailings landslide incident at Indonesia’s IMIP park, LME nickel prices rebounded noticeably but overall remained volatile below $18,000/mt. II. Key Macro Events and Industry Developments On February 18, a tailings dam landslide occurred at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), resulting in casualties. The affected area has currently suspended operations. On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the previous tariff policy of the Trump administration was illegal. In response, the Trump administration quickly invoked "Section 122" to announce a new 10% global tariff, which was further raised to 15% the following day. In terms of geopolitics, US-Iran negotiations have been volatile. Although progress was made in the February 17 talks, core disagreements remain, and the US continues to escalate military threats, increasing geopolitical uncertainty. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, due to fewer calendar days in February and the Chinese New Year holiday leading to partial shutdowns at some enterprises, production plans have been reduced. Refined nickel production in February is expected to decrease by about 5% MoM. Demand side, post-holiday, as traders and end-users resume production, market transactions are expected to gradually recover. Spot premiums for Jinchuan refined nickel are projected to remain high at 8,000–10,000 yuan/mt, while spot premiums/discounts for domestically produced electrodeposited nickel are expected to stay within the pre-holiday range of -400–400 yuan/mt, with relatively stable fluctuations. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at elevated levels. On the downside, the 130,000 yuan/mt level for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policy; on the upside, the zone above 145,000 yuan/mt faces strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract after the holiday is projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to monitor include whether supply contraction expectations materialize as anticipated, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Sentiment Shift Coupled with Rational Correction, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Quickly Hit Limit Down in Morning Session]

[SMM Analysis: Review of Lead Market During Labour Day Holiday and Market Outlook After the Holiday] SMM May 5 News: Due to the Labour Day holiday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange suspended night session trading from April 30. The holiday period was from May 1 to 5, during which no trading of SHFE lead took place. The domestic spot lead market also entered a state of suspended trading. Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange in overseas markets continued trading as usual...

[SMM Analysis: Review of the Lead Market During the Labour Day Holiday and Market Outlook After the Holiday] SMM May 5 Report: Due to the Labour Day holiday, the Shanghai Futures Exchange suspended night session trading from April 30 onwards. From May 1 to 5, which was the holiday period, no trading took place for SHFE lead, and the domestic spot lead market also entered a state of suspended trading. However, the London Metal Exchange in overseas markets continued trading as usual...

SMM Cobalt and Lithium Morning Meeting Minutes: The spot price of refined cobalt rebounded this week. Supply side, the current spot inventory in the market is at a relatively high level, but the market's speculative sentiment was ignited by macro event fluctuations, and traders' transactions were relatively active, leading to an increase in the spot quotation of refined cobalt. Demand side, downstream producers were more cautious. It is expected that the spot price of refined cobalt will maintain a fluctuating trend this week.

SMM April 11 News: This week, cobalt product quotes showed mixed performance, with only cobalt chloride rising slightly, while refined cobalt, cobalt sulphate, and Co3O4 spot prices fell to varying degrees. Among them, refined cobalt spot prices continued to face downward pressure due to high overall inventory levels in the market and macro event disturbances... SMM compiled the price changes of related products in the cobalt market this week, as follows: Refined cobalt: According to SMM spot price data, refined cobalt spot prices continued to decline this week, falling for four consecutive trading days before stabilizing briefly on the last trading day. As of April 11, refined cobalt spot prices stabilized at 218,000-250,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 234,000 yuan/mt, down 10,000 yuan/mt from April 3, a drop of 4.1%. According to SMM, fundamentally, on the supply side, current spot inventory in the market is high, and smelters' willingness to sell is weak amid falling prices. On the demand side, downstream sentiment is generally cautious, with inquiries and buying activity subdued. Overall, due to high overall inventory levels of refined cobalt and macro event disturbances, refined cobalt spot prices remain in the doldrums. Next week, the overall supply and demand situation for refined cobalt is unlikely to improve, and spot prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride): According to SMM spot price data, cobalt sulphate spot prices also showed a downward trend this week, falling for the last three consecutive trading days before dropping to 48,500-50,200 yuan/mt on April 11, with an average price of 49,350 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from April 3, a drop of 0.6%. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt sulphate, mainstream salt producers continue to maintain a firm pricing strategy, but the price alliance has shown signs of loosening, with a small number of salt producers lowering their quotes. Coupled with the drag of low-priced old stock in the market, cobalt sulphate spot prices have weakened. On the demand side, under the influence of macro events, downstream companies are dominated by a wait-and-see attitude, with purchase willingness significantly weakened, resulting in overall weak market transactions. Next week, market sentiment is unlikely to improve, and cobalt sulphate spot prices may continue to fluctuate. Cobalt chloride: According to SMM spot price data, cobalt chloride prices rose slightly this week. As of April 11, cobalt chloride spot prices increased to 59,500-61,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 60,250 yuan/mt, up 250 yuan/mt from April 3, an increase of 0.42%. According to SMM, on the supply side of cobalt chloride, as smelters' early raw material inventories have been largely depleted and raw material prices remain high, smelters are unwilling to sell at low prices, with a strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, keeping market prices at a high level with limited supply. On the demand side, although market activity is not high, some manufacturers still have to purchase cobalt chloride to maintain normal production, driving high-level transactions and thus pushing spot prices slightly higher. Next week, cobalt chloride prices are expected to remain high, with suppliers showing a strong reluctance to sell. Co3O4: According to SMM spot price data, Co3O4 spot prices showed a downward trend this week. As of April 11, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 203,000-218,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 210,500 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from April 3, a drop of 0.36%. According to SMM, on the supply side, most smelters' quotes remain stable, and the market is gradually returning to rationality. On the demand side, as most manufacturers have completed their earlier purchases, new orders this week are limited, reducing market acceptance of high prices and weakening transaction activity, with the market entering a buffer period. Next week, downstream LCO manufacturers' purchase willingness is not strong, and Co3O4 spot prices may further decline. On the news front, according to an announcement released by CMOC on the evening of April 8 regarding its January-March 2025 operations, the company seized favorable market opportunities to stabilize and increase production. The company's main products, copper, cobalt, and niobium, saw production increases of 15.65%, 20.68%, and 4.39% YoY, respectively. Benefiting from YoY increases in the selling prices of all products, the company's main operating indicators exceeded expectations, achieving a good start to the year. According to its annual report data, in 2024, the company's production of copper, cobalt, niobium, and phosphate fertiliser all hit record highs. In 2024, CMOC produced 114,200 mt of cobalt. In 2025, the company plans to produce 600,000-660,000 mt of copper, 100,000-120,000 mt of cobalt, and 12,000-15,000 mt of molybdenum. On April 9, Pengxin Resources disclosed its Q1 performance forecast, stating that preliminary calculations by the finance department show that the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 100-130 million yuan in Q1 2025, an increase of 71.9033-101.9033 million yuan compared to the same period last year. Regarding the reasons for the profit, Pengxin Resources stated that during the reporting period, the company's production and sales of products such as copper cathode increased, and the price of cobalt hydroxide rebounded, with the reversal of impairment provisions for existing cobalt hydroxide inventory from previous years.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Jump Initially and Then Pull Back, Suppliers Stand Firm on Quotes] Copper prices rose first and then fell this week. As of Thursday's close, copper prices increased by only 10 yuan/mt. However, bare bright copper prices in Guangdong showed strong performance, rising by 400 yuan/mt, with Thursday's transaction prices ranging from 74,400 to 74,600 yuan/mt. Suppliers of secondary copper raw materials still insisted on large-scale shipments only after copper prices reached 83,000 yuan/mt. Therefore, when copper prices pulled back, suppliers generally chose to stand firm on quotes for shipments...

[Zinc Prices May Jump Initially and Then Pull Back After Macro Sentiment Is Digested] Frequent macro events are occurring: Trump's tariff policy escalates; US ADP employment data falls short of expectations, increasing concerns over slowing US economic growth, and US stocks accelerate their pullback; global geopolitical developments under the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Domestically, coinciding with the Two Sessions, apart from the special government bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan, the outcomes are largely in line with market expectations: GDP growth around 5%, fiscal deficit ratio around 4%, moderately loose monetary policy, with timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts...