SMM May 7: Weak downstream demand continued to weigh on tungsten prices. The average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on May 7 was reported at 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis). In less than two months, the price has pulled back over 33% from its historical high. As multiple tungsten enterprises continued to lower their long-term contract prices for the first half of May, extending the two rounds of cuts in April, how will tungsten prices evolve going forward? Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Continue to Lower Long-Term Contract Prices for First Half of May Multiple tungsten enterprises continued to lower their long-term contract prices for the first half of May, details as follows: A tungsten group in Jiangxi released its long-term contract prices for the first half of May. The guidance price for national standard Grade 1 wolframite concentrates for the first half of May 2026 was 720,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) (long-term contract), down 190,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the second half of April. Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten's long-term contract procurement prices for the first half of May were: 1 55% wolframite concentrates: 700,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 185,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2 55% scheelite concentrates: 699,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 185,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3 APT (national standard Grade 0): 1.02 million yuan/mt, down 330,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Wolframite Concentrates Fell 33.32% in Less Than 2 Months According to SMM, the price spread between tungsten ore long-term contract prices and spot order transaction prices widened to around 200,000. Mainstream mines primarily shipped under long-term contracts, while spot orders in the market still faced some selling pressure with difficult transactions and a continuously declining center. However, considering the limited spot order trading volume and the high proportion of long-term contracts in the market, SMM maintained the May 7 price unchanged for now. According to SMM quotes, the price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) on that day was 700,000–701,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), flat from the previous trading day. Along with the declining center of tungsten prices, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) at 700,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on May 7, compared with its historical high average price of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, showed that in less than 2 months, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 350,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), a decline of 33.32%. Outlook As China's mainstream tungsten enterprises continued to lower their new round of long-term contract prices, spot market confidence remained under pressure. It is expected that tungsten prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term given the lack of demand support. In the long term, underpinned by the supply rigidity from the continued tightening of China's annual tungsten ore mining quotas, the logic of raw material supply contraction remains unchanged. After tungsten prices pulled back over 33% in less than two months, the room for further deep declines has been significantly compressed. Going forward, the key focus will be on the pace of recovery in actual end-user demand from downstream sectors such as cemented carbide, special steel, and PV tungsten wire, as well as the timing of concentrated restocking by enterprises in the low-price segment. Recommended reading:

On May 7, 2026, the iron ore market showed a volatile but strengthening trend with intense trading activity. The main contract I2609 finally closed at 817 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from the previous trading session.

On May 7, 2026, iron ore futures fluctuated upward with intense trading, and the most-traded contract I2609 closed at 817 yuan/mt, up 0.62% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were basically flat compared to the previous day. Traders showed moderate quoting activity, and steel mills remained cautious in procurement; overall spot transaction sentiment was lukewarm. Currently, iron ore supply-demand fundamentals remain stable. However, oil prices transmitted through the shipping market, leading to a significant rise in iron ore freight costs today, further supporting iron ore prices. In addition, reports indicated that the US and Iran are negotiating on resolving conflicts and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with oil prices having fallen for three consecutive days. This news may boost market sentiment in the short term, providing positive sentiment-driven support for iron ore prices.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, coking costs increased, squeezing coke enterprise profits. Currently, coke enterprises maintained normal shipments, with their own coke inventory at low levels, and coke production levels were generally stable with slight increases. Demand side, steel mills currently had high production enthusiasm, hot metal production declined slightly but remained at a relatively high level, sustaining rigid demand for coke. Additionally, finished steel prices rose notably after the holiday, expanding steel mill profits. In summary, the third round of coke price increase has not yet been implemented, with coke and steel enterprises continuing to negotiate. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well, remaining generally stable with slight rise.

ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih (AMKR) has announced a temporary suspension of its steel and rolled product manufacturing for at least four days, starting May 5, 2026, due to critical damage to the railway infrastructure connecting the plant to Black Sea ports. The logistics bottleneck, caused by repeated strikes on the Odesa-Chornomorsk bridge, has paralyzed the export of iron ore concentrate and finished steel, forcing the company to idle Blast Furnace No. 6. While the plant aimed for a 2026 production target of 5.3 million metric tons (mt) of iron ore concentrate and 3.8 million mt of crude steel, this disruption threatens to tighten the supply of long products in the European and North African markets.

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced the preliminary results of its administrative review of the antidumping (AD) duty order on large diameter welded pipe from India for the period of May 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024. The DOC preliminarily found that Welspun Corp Limited and its affiliates did not sell the subject merchandise at less than normal value, assigning a dumping margin of 0.00%. Additionally, the review was rescinded for 12 other Indian companies as they had no reviewable shipments during the period. This preliminary zero-margin finding for a major producer suggests a potential easing of trade barriers for specific Indian pipe exports, though final results are pending.

The American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported that US steel mills shipped 7.74 million net tons in March 2026, marking a 10.9% increase from the 6.98 million net tons shipped in February, though down 0.6% compared to March 2025. Total shipments for the first quarter of 2026 reached 21.82 million net tons, a 1.6% decrease year-on-year. Specifically, shipments of corrosion-resistant steel rose by 12%, cold rolled sheets by 11%, and hot rolled sheets by 6% compared to the previous month. The significant monthly rebound indicates a seasonal recovery in manufacturing and construction demand, though the slight year-on-year decline suggests the market is still adjusting to broader economic cooling compared to the previous year.

India's crude steel production rose by 6% year-on-year in April 2026 to reach 12.1 million metric tons (Mt). Domestic finished steel consumption outpaced production growth, increasing by 8% to 11.3 million mt, driven by strong infrastructure activity. During the month, finished steel output stood at 11.6 million mt (+5.5% YoY), while imports jumped 12% to 0.6 million mt and exports fell by 15% to 0.5 million mt. The data confirms India's status as a primary driver of global steel demand, with strong domestic absorption reducing export surpluses and making the country a net importer for the period, which may support global steel prices amid tightening regional supply.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.

Leading US steel producers, including Nucor, Gerdau, and Optimus Steel, have announced a general price increase for rebar by $20 per short ton ($1.00 per cwt), effective immediately in May 2026. This move follows a period of price consolidation and is largely driven by rising raw material costs, particularly ferrous scrap, and sustained demand from domestic infrastructure projects. The hike brings the market price floor higher, signaling a shift toward a more hawkish pricing environment in the North American long products sector. If successfully absorbed by the market, this increase may prompt other regional mini-mills to follow suit, potentially raising construction costs across the US in the second quarter of 2026.