China’s silver prices weakened this week, and the price spread between SGE TD prices and the SHFE April contract continued to narrow sharply. Imported silver ingots kept flowing into the market, but spot transactions turned noticeably sluggish in late March, with suppliers continuously lowering spot premiums to sell off inventory. As orders for PV silver powder and silver paste declined, silver nitrate enterprises generally said that after current order deliveries are completed, renewals of new orders will decrease, so raw material silver ingot procurement volume generally fell this week. As both silver prices and spot premiums showed signs of weakening, silver nitrate and other downstream enterprises mostly stayed cautious amid fears of further declines, negotiating for rigid-demand purchases and only buying the dip. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for Shanghai market standard silver ingots against TD premiums had been cut to below 100 yuan/kg. In Shenzhen, non-registered-brand silver ingots were occasionally quoted at parity or even at slight discounts for sale, but suppliers of standard silver ingots still mostly held prices firm and were reluctant to sell. After spot trading turned sluggish, the spot silver ingot market may see suppliers shift inventory and ship to delivery warehouses, and SGE or SHFE inventory is expected to post a slight buildup going forward. Inventory side, silver ingot inventory in Shenzhen posted a slight buildup this week, while inventories in some Shanghai warehouses did not increase significantly. Import profits for silver ingots narrowed sharply this week, and some smelters gradually began to fulfill export permits in late March, reducing domestic supply. Despite softer downstream consumption, silver ingot social inventory did not show a continued buildup trend this week.

[Price Review] During the week, silver prices remained in the doldrums. In China, the Ag (T+D) contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange broke below the support level of 18,000 yuan/kg, while LBMA silver prices kept probing lower after falling below $75/oz. From a macro perspective, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices to repeated new highs, while intensifying inflation concerns significantly cooled expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and delayed the timing of the first cut to year-end. The simultaneous strength in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields became the core factors suppressing silver prices. On Wednesday local time, the US Fed announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged. In the statement released that day, it noted that the impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy remained uncertain and that uncertainty surrounding the US economic outlook was still elevated. In addition, speculative demand and ETF holdings continued to decline, and market sentiment kept cooling. As for the gold/silver ratio, because silver posted a deeper decline, the ratio continued to rise. As of March 18, the LBMA gold/silver ratio had climbed to 63, a recent high. [Important Data] Bullish: US preliminary March one-year inflation expectations came in at 3.4%, above expectations and unchanged from the previous reading Bearish: US API crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.556 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ended March 13 increased by 6.156 million barrels, above expectations and the previous reading Data and macro releases to watch next week include: Continued hawkishness from the US Fed, the ECB rate decision, US inflation/employment data, COMEX silver delivery, together with the Boao Forum and geopolitical risks On March 19, the FOMC kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, raised its 2026 PCE forecast to 2.7%, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts cooled sharply. US-Iran Situation: As of March 19, the military strikes by the US and Israel against Iran had entered their 19th day, with high-intensity confrontation, no sign of a ceasefire, and the conflict spreading to multiple Gulf countries. In terms of the current impact on precious metals, financial suppression outweighed safe-haven demand. Against the backdrop of surging inflation expectations, the US dollar and US Treasury yields continued to rise, the timing of US Fed interest rate cuts was delayed, and silver prices were suppressed. [Price Forecast] Silver prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the doldrums amid the interplay between macro disruptions and fundamentals. On the macro front, caution is still warranted over the risk of continued US dollar strength and heightened volatility from any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict. On the fundamentals side, as PV export rush orders gradually approached their end, rigid demand for raw material procurement by silver nitrate enterprises declined in late March, weakening support from industrial demand. In China's spot market, as investment demand and rigid industrial demand softened, coupled with replenishment from imported silver ingots, circulating supply of silver ingots in the spot market became ample, and suppliers generally lowered spot premium quotes to facilitate transactions. The abnormally high spot premiums in China's spot market will come to an end. At the same time, profitability on imported silver ingots will also decline sharply, and spot premium quotes in actual spot silver ingot transactions are expected to return to rational levels.

As of Thursday this week, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price edged down slightly WoW. Demand side, trading sentiment was weak in mid-month, and some producers made inquiries recently, but as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of high-priced nickel salt was weak; supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesia's recent MHP supply, MHP payables moved higher, driving up raw material costs for some producers and correspondingly lifting their quotes. Looking ahead, with the month-end procurement period approaching, attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory, this week upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 4.7 days, downstream precursor plant inventory index fell from 7.1 days to 6.8 days, and integrated enterprises' inventory index held at 6.8 days; in terms of buyer-seller strength, this week the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor held at 1.8, the downstream precursor plants' procurement sentiment factor fell from 2.7 to 2.6, and integrated enterprises' sentiment factor held at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)

The current domestic rhenium spot market in China is characterized by differentiation across the industrial chain, two-way supply-demand game, and high-level consolidation. Overall market conditions are jointly driven by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, inventory restocking cycles, overseas supply chain risks, and domestic fundamental supply and demand. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Accelerated Shipments Major domestic upstream rhenium producers maintain stable raw material quotations, with the mainstream price range around 28,000. Only a small number of suppliers offer prices as high as around 30,000, forming a clear tiered price structure without major fluctuations. Recently, upstream producers have shown stronger willingness to sell, with a notable increase in shipment frequency. II. Midstream: Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream refineries and rhenium processors are currently operating under scheduled production. Order deliveries are concentrated, with most manufacturers scheduled to fulfill orders in March and April.In terms of cost control and purchasing sentiment, midstream processors generally show low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. Buyers tend to negotiate rationally and resist chasing high prices, which directly caps the upward room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steady Recovery in Industrial Demand Downstream demand exhibits significant structural divergence between investment demand and industrial demand, which has become the key factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand has cooled, accompanied by panic selling among retail investors. Increasing low-price sell-offs have emerged in the market as holders offload at discounted prices to accelerate capital turnover, weighing on short-term spot transaction prices. On the other hand, industrial demand has steadily recovered and maintained growth. As the core rigid support for rhenium, the recovery of industrial demand provides a solid fundamental floor, offsetting part of the negative impact from investment-driven sell-offs. IV. Market Outlook Based on the macro environment and industrial supply-demand fundamentals, the domestic rhenium market is in a balanced game between bullish and bearish factors, keeping prices in high-level consolidation. Short-term Outlook Affected by the international macro environment, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remains high, diverting capital away from non-ferrous metals. The overall weakening investment sentiment in the non-ferrous sector has spilled over to the niche strategic metal rhenium, suppressing investment demand.In addition, most market participants completed phased restocking around the Spring Festival, leaving inventories at relatively sufficient levels. As a result, raw material prices lack upward momentum, with limited room for significant gains in the short term. Long-term Outlook Geopolitical competition over critical minerals is intensifying. Progress in critical minerals negotiations between the U.S. and Chile, along with rising exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains, has reduced the stability of overseas ammonium perrhenate import channels and raised external supply risks.The expected tightening in ammonium perrhenate supply will provide strong support to market prices.

[SMM Daily Review: Sharp Drop in Nickel Prices Dragged Down Market Confidence, High-Grade NPI Price Center Pulled Back] March 19 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.07 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, up 0.02 MoM.

The current spot rhenium metal market in China is characterized by divergence between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, two-way bargaining in supply and demand, and high-level price consolidation. Overall market performance is jointly influenced by multiple factors, including macro investment sentiment, the pace of stockpiling across the industry chain, overseas supply chain risks, and China’s supply and demand fundamentals. I. Upstream: Stable Price Range, Faster Producer Shipments In China’s upstream rhenium metal market, mainstream producers maintained stable raw material quotations, with the core price range controlled at around 28,000. Only a few producers raised raw material quotations to around 30,000. The overall price structure remained clearly tiered, with no wild swings. From the circulation side of the market, upstream producers recently showed stronger willingness to sell, and shipment frequency increased significantly. II. Midstream: Concentrated Scheduled Production, Low Acceptance of High-Priced Ammonium Perrhenate Midstream smelters and rhenium processing enterprises are currently in scheduled production, with pre-holiday order deliveries relatively concentrated. Most producers are scheduled to complete deliveries in March and April. From the cost side and purchasing sentiment, midstream processing enterprises generally showed low acceptance of high-priced ammonium perrhenate. The procurement side is more inclined toward rational bargaining and resists rushing to buy amid continuous price rise at high levels. This sentiment directly constrained the upside room for ammonium perrhenate prices. III. Downstream: Cooling Investment Sentiment, Steadily Recovering Industrial Demand Downstream demand showed clear structural divergence, with investment demand and industrial demand moving in opposite directions, becoming the core factor affecting short-term market sentiment. On the one hand, previously active investment demand gradually cooled, market investment sentiment weakened, and retail investors showed panic-driven exit sentiment. Low-price sell-offs began to appear in the market one after another, and some holders chose to sell below market prices in order to recover funds quickly, which to some extent impacted short-term transaction prices in the spot market. On the other hand, industrial demand showed a healthy trend of steady return and continued growth. As the core support for rigid demand in the rhenium metal market, the recovery in industrial demand provided a solid fundamental floor for the market and offset part of the bearish impact brought by investment-driven selling. IV. Outlook Considering the macro market environment and the supply and demand fundamentals of the industry chain, the core logic of the current rhenium market in China is clear: bullish and bearish factors are intertwined and in competition, jointly keeping prices in a high-level consolidation range. The specific influencing factors and market outlook are as follows: In the short term, affected by the international macro situation, investment enthusiasm in the energy sector remained elevated and diverted market funds, while overall investment sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector pulled back significantly. This sentiment gradually transmitted to the niche rare metal rhenium market, suppressing investment-side enthusiasm. In addition, around the Chinese New Year, upstream and downstream producers across the industry chain had already completed phased restocking, leaving market inventory in a relatively ample state. Raw material prices therefore lacked the momentum for a sharp increase, and short-term upside room for prices is limited. In the long term, competition in the international critical minerals sector intensified, and critical minerals consultations between the US and Chile continued to advance. The trend toward exclusive cooperation in global critical minerals supply chains became increasingly evident, directly leading to reduced stability in import channels for ammonium perrhenate from outside China, while external supply risks continued to rise; the supply of ammonium perrhenate showed a tightening trend, providing support for prices.

SMM News, March 19: Total inventory in the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan declined further this week, falling from 998,100 mt on March 12, 2026 to 979,300 mt on March 19, down 1.88% WoW. Stainless steel social inventory extended its decline this week, with inventory in the two core markets of Wuxi and Foshan continuing to pull back WoW. Although the market has entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," ongoing geopolitical conflicts continued to disrupt the market this week, while SS futures weakened and came under pressure, leading to a clear lack of market confidence. Overall transactions during the week were weaker than last week; even though the demand-side recovery fell short of expectations, downstream end-users still maintained a just-in-time procurement pace. Supply side, stainless steel mills faced the dual pressure of elevated production schedules and high inventory, and their willingness to ship stayed high; during the week, a major mainstream mill lowered its guidance price, directly boosting market transactions and becoming the core driver behind the slight pullback in inventory. Sentiment in both the spot market and futures was subdued. Coupled with geopolitical conflicts and limited upside in raw material prices, the market's earlier bullish sentiment completely faded, while downstream buyers only maintained just-in-time procurement with no willingness to stockpile, further constraining restocking room. Overall, this week's modest inventory drawdown mainly relied on active shipments by steel mills and support from just-in-time transactions. Current social inventory remained at a high level, and with March production schedule expectations still relatively high, pressure on inventory drawdown remained prominent. Although inventory posted consecutive declines in the short term, constrained by weak market confidence and the absence of downstream stockpiling demand, inventory is unlikely to see a substantial drawdown. Whether inventory can continue to decline steadily will still depend on close monitoring of how the geopolitical situation evolves and the pace of actual downstream demand release.

[China Iron Ore Brief Review: Tangshan Iron Ore Concentrates Prices May Fluctuate Within a Range] Domestic iron ore prices in the Tangshan area remained relatively stable, with the delivery-to-factory price, tax included, for 66-grade iron ore concentrates on a dry basis at 970-975 yuan/mt. Steel mills' procurement pace at high prices slowed down, constraining upward market momentum, but local and nearby ROM resources were tight and costs were high, leaving overall iron ore concentrates resources still relatively tight. Recently, iron ore prices fluctuated relatively sharply, and the market was relatively

[Weak Market Sentiment Weighed on Both Spot Silicon Metal and Polysilicon Prices]: This week, the silicon metal market moved lower after a stalemate, with weak market sentiment, some downstream procurement demand released, and cautious trading sentiment. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon stood at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, silicon metal market prices remained in a stalemate, while the most-traded contract fluctuated around 8,550-8,750 yuan/mt, with downstream procurement mainly focused on factory cargoes. Later, affected by macro factors and capital sentiment, futures prices declined continuously and closed at 8,285 yuan/mt on Thursday. As spot-futures traders' price advantages became apparent, shipments increased, downstream procurement sentiment diverged, and the market saw transactions based on immediate needs.

SMM, March 19: This week, Chinese aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on order deliveries, with aluminum fluoride prices holding steady. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,180-10,450 yuan/mt; cryolite prices also held steady, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of key raw materials for aluminum fluoride continued to rise. Specifically, the delivery-to-factory price of 97% fluorite powder remained stable, currently concentrated in the range of 3,150-3,450 yuan/mt. During the Two Sessions, mining at northern mines was restricted, leading to a temporary tight supply of fluorite raw ore; some beneficiation plants showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm due to relatively low inventory levels, and downstream hydrofluoric acid enterprises slightly recovered in operating demand after resuming work following the holiday. SMM expected fluorite prices to hold up well in the short term. Aluminum hydroxide prices edged up steadily, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,673 yuan/mt, up 1.52% WoW. The sulphuric acid market remained firm, and prices continued to rise amid higher costs, tightening supply, and strong demand. Overall, the raw material side of aluminum fluoride moved higher, and production pressure on enterprises increased significantly. Supply side showed a pattern of rigid cost increases, deeply pressured profitability, and weak willingness to operate. Recently, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite, sulphuric acid, and aluminum hydroxide continued to rise, significantly pushing up aluminum fluoride production costs. The industry was caught in a squeeze from both costs and selling prices, with enterprises generally operating at a loss. Production enthusiasm was hit hard, overall industry operating rates remained in the doldrums, and actual supply increases were limited. On the demand side, operating aluminum capacity downstream remained stable, forming a rigid demand base for aluminum fluoride; however, enterprises mainly restocked for rigid demand and purchased as needed, with cautious procurement and insufficient demand elasticity to boost prices. Brief comment: This week, prices of key raw materials such as fluorite and sulphuric acid held up well, and the cost side continued to rise, significantly increasing production pressure on enterprises; in March, the aluminum fluoride tender price of a downstream benchmark enterprise was finalized, down 200-370 yuan/mt MoM, and the spot market also moved in the doldrums under its guidance. At present, the industry is facing a two-way squeeze of rising costs and selling prices under pressure, narrowing profit margins and dampening production enthusiasm. Fundamentally: Cost side: fluorite and sulphuric acid prices remained firm, providing clear bottom support for aluminum fluoride. Supply side: industry operating rates stayed in the doldrums, with no significant increase in production, and overall supply and demand remained subdued. Demand side: rigid demand from aluminum remained stable, but there was no obvious incremental growth, and procurement was mainly as needed. Overall, the strong support effect from fluorite and sulphuric acid on the cost side became more prominent, coupled with low industry operating rates and shrinking supply. Aluminum fluoride's price center is expected to move steadily higher next month, showing a mild strengthening trend. Going forward, close and continuous attention should be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.