Next week, several key economic data will be released, mainly including China's official manufacturing PMI for June, the US June ADP employment figure, the US June unemployment rate, and the US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls. Recently, US-Iran diplomacy achieved a phased breakthrough, with both sides signing a memorandum of understanding, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and the recovery of crude oil and other supplies. However, conflicts along the Lebanon-Israel border have been recurring, and the ceasefire agreement remains fragile, necessitating cautious optimism. Additionally, short-term inflation data and hawkish signals pushed up expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, while market views diverged and conflicted, requiring closer attention to next week's economic data outcomes. As for LME lead, affected by the lifting of shipping restrictions in the Middle East and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, market bearish sentiment surged, and LME lead prices fell continuously, nearly breaking below $1,900/mt. While lead prices were declining, the LME Cash-3M contango widened, with the latest quote at -$33.6/mt. Notably, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for four consecutive weeks, with total inventories dropping below 300,000 mt, the latest figure at 297,500 mt. It is expected that short-term macro risk factors still exist, and fundamental factors present contradictions. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, with LME lead forecast to trade between $1,875 and $1,945/mt. As for SHFE lead, entering July, with the semiannual capital repatriation factor removed, upstream and downstream enterprises will resume regular trading. Meanwhile, supplies of lead concentrates and scrap batteries remain constrained, with secondary lead enterprises incurring significant losses. Production resumptions have been delayed, and there are additional production cuts. Coupled with the persistent inversion between secondary and primary lead prices, these factors will provide support for lead prices in the short term. However, we also need to be vigilant about macro bearish factors, with lead prices expected to be in the doldrums, while watching the lead ingot import window. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade between 15,950 and 16,400 yuan/mt. Spot price forecast: 15,950-16,250 yuan/mt. Before the end of June, some large downstream enterprises will close accounts and take inventory, which will continue to disrupt trading activity for lead ingots. Once July arrives, the lead market will return to normal trading. In some regions, transactions for primary lead at a significant contango (against SMM#Pb) are expected to decrease, or the contango will narrow. On the secondary lead side, constrained by losses, smelters' shipments are limited, and some enterprises already have inventory buildup. If arrivals of imported lead increase to supplement supply, it cannot be ruled out that secondary refined lead may turn to widen the contango.

According to data from China Customs, in January-May 2026, China’s combined imports of refined lead and lead products totaled 248,443 mt, surging 291.06% YoY on a cumulative basis. The import window was wide open for most of H1, and overseas cargoes kept pouring in. Total imports had already exceeded the full-year 2025 level. On the export side, combined exports of refined lead and lead products in January-May amounted to only 20,197 mt, down 32.49% YoY, remaining at low levels.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Secondary Lead Inverted by 100 Yuan from Primary Lead, Sign of Lead Price Stop Falling?] Recently, lead prices fell continuously, losses for secondary lead enterprises widened, and shipments decreased significantly. In contrast, in the primary lead sector, lead smelters and suppliers were generally selling actively...

[SMM Lead Morning Brief: Lead Prices Will Be in the Doldrums Amid Bearish Macro Sentiment] Recently, multiple macro events have dominated the trading direction of base metals. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes strengthened, and the US dollar index hit a new high; progress in Middle East peace talks and a plunge in crude oil prices, to some extent, signal that metals......

According to SMM understanding, on June 23, 2026, the Hezhang County People's Government and Guizhou Dingshengxin Zinc & Germanium New Materials Co., Ltd. officially signed the "Investment Contract for the Green Manufacturing Project of Guizhou Dingshengxin Zinc & Germanium New Materials." The project has a total approved investment of 5.5 billion yuan and is designed to produce 220,000 mt of zinc ingots per year (including 100,000 mt of high-end zinc alloy new materials for die casting and galvanizing), 80,000 mt of lead ingots, along with the recovery of rare and precious metals such as germanium ingots, silver ingots, and refined cadmium, as well as a supporting sulfuric acid production system with an annual output of approximately 580,000 mt of sulfuric acid.

SMM June 23: The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. In the morning session, prices fluctuated slightly around the intraday moving average, then weakened and fluctuated downward, dipping to an intraday low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, futures gradually recovered and rebounded, with prices steadily approaching the average line. Near the end of the session, the contract moved sideways in a narrow range of 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt and finally settled at 16,385 yuan/mt, recording a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt or 0.4%. The SHFE lead 2607 contract recorded a trading volume of 29,824 lots and open interest of 43,541 lots. The SHFE lead 2608 contract recorded a trading volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract officially rolled over to the 2608 contract. Currently, primary and secondary lead smelters in China are entering a concentrated maintenance period, creating strong market expectations of a contraction in lead raw material supply, which provides upward support to the futures market. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, generating short-term restocking demand driven by rigid needs. However, at the mid-year period, large downstream battery enterprises are entering the semi-annual financial closing and inventory check phase, which will temporarily slow down their concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. The weak supply-demand situation makes it difficult to persistently boost lead prices upward. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Data source statement: All data, except publicly available information, are processed by SMM based on public information, market communications, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary: Macro and Fundamental Bullish and Bearish Factors Coexist, Lead Prices Expected to Consolidate] On Monday, the first round of high-level talks between the US and Iran concluded, and a joint statement released by Qatar and Pakistan showed that all parties reached a roadmap. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, lead ingot social inventory accumulated as expected, putting lead prices under pressure. Currently, in the mid-year period, upstream and downstream enterprises are facing...

SMM, June 22 – The most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 16,420 yuan/mt during the day. The morning session saw small fluctuations around the intraday moving average before the futures fluctuated downward, touching a low of 16,315 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, the futures gradually recovered and rebounded, steadily approaching the moving average. Near the close, it moved sideways within the 16,370–16,400 yuan/mt range, eventually settling at 16,385 yuan/mt, forming a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.4%. Trading volume for the SHFE lead 2607 contract reached 29,824 lots, with open interest of 43,541 lots; the 2608 contract saw volume of 31,280 lots and open interest of 69,530 lots. The contract rollover of the most-traded SHFE lead contract was formally completed for the 2608 contract. Currently in China, primary and secondary lead smelters are entering a concentrated maintenance period, generating strong expectations of tightening lead raw material supply and providing upward support for the futures. Following the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, downstream battery factories have gradually resumed production, creating short-term rigid restocking demand. However, at the mid-year point, large downstream battery enterprises are entering their semi-annual accounting and inventory review period, which will temporarily slow down concentrated procurement of lead ingots. The bullish impetus from rigid demand is relatively limited. With both supply and demand remaining weak, it is difficult for the supply-demand dynamics to consistently boost lead prices. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the near term. Data source declaration: Data not originating from publicly available information has been processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and internal SMM database models and is for reference only. It does not constitute any decision-making advice.

It is learned that as of June 18, the in-factory inventory of major primary lead delivery brands stood at 7,100 mt, down 4,000 mt WoW. This week, maintenance activities increased at both primary and secondary lead smelters, tightening the supply of lead ingots. Moreover, as most primary lead enterprises had pre-sold the majority of this week's lead ingot output last week, primary lead smelters maintained low inventories. During the Dragon Boat Festival, many downstream enterprises planned to take holidays, leading to a lack of lead consumption. After the holiday, primary lead smelters may face inventory buildup risks.

Next week, on the macro data front, the US May core PCE price index YoY rate, US May personal spending MoM rate, and the Eurozone June manufacturing PMI flash reading are about to be released. The US Fed left interest rates unchanged in June as expected, but the meeting sent a clear hawkish signal, including a sharp upward revision to inflation forecasts and a dot plot showing that a majority of officials expected rate hikes within the year. In addition, the US-Iran memorandum of understanding was officially signed and entered into force, initiating a 60-day negotiation period, while the latest foreign media reports indicate that Israel has again attacked Lebanon, leaving Middle East peace talks still uncertain. On the LME lead front, LME lead inventories have been on a downtrend for three consecutive weeks, but total inventory remains at a high level of 300,000 mt. During this period, the LME Cash-3M spread shifted from a premium last week to a discount, latest at -$28.4/mt. Meanwhile, new progress emerged in the Middle East peace talks, and expectations for US Fed rate hikes within the year rose. With a complex macro environment, lead prices are expected to continue consolidating, and the consolidation range will widen, with LME lead trading in the range of $1,955-2,000/mt. On the SHFE lead side, after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, production resumptions at downstream enterprises will bring some rigid demand. However, it should be noted that at the half-year mark, large downstream enterprises will close their books and take stock, and lead ingot purchasing will be suspended, providing limited support for lead prices. Meanwhile, maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters is increasing, and supply tightening expectations support stronger lead prices. Under the combined effect of these factors, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,250-16,650 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,150-16,450 yuan/mt. Due to smelter maintenance in mid-to-late June, lead ingot supply will be relatively tight. However, with the ongoing mid-year capital recouping, suppliers will continue to clear inventory and sell, and spot lead is expected to maintain small discounts (vs. SMM# lead) when selling. On the consumption side, downstream enterprises also face mid-year capital recouping. Some enterprises will maintain production with their inventory or continue to pick up previously-ordered lead ingots, with actual procurement to be postponed.