SMM News, March 20: This week, secondary refined lead was mostly quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, with some cargoes available for delivered premiums of 50 yuan/mt. Affected by falling lead prices, downstream wait-and-see sentiment, and relatively cautious procurement, suppliers showed weak willingness to sell, and overall market transactions were sluggish. This week, secondary lead smelters lowered scrap battery purchase prices, easing raw material cost pressure, and losses narrowed WoW; as of March 20, 2026, the theoretical comprehensive profit/loss for large-scale enterprises stood at -337 yuan/mt, versus -541 yuan/mt for small and medium-sized enterprises (the model's by-product revenue did not include tin and antimony). As smelters that resumed production continued to release capacity, ample supply weighed on lead prices. Combined with the wide range of cargo types available to downstream enterprises, spot order premiums for secondary refined lead are expected to narrow next week, while actual prices will still depend on changes in raw material costs. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

SMM News on March 20: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at around 16,461 yuan/mt intraday. Affected by broad declines across base metals, lead prices moved in a unilateral downward trend overall today, hitting a low of 16,270 yuan/mt during the session. Although prices edged up slightly toward the close, the rebound was limited, and the contract finally closed at 16,290 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, down 125 yuan/mt, or 0.76%. Supply side, dragged down by low lead prices, suppliers of primary lead showed mediocre willingness to ship, while secondary lead producers held prices firm and were reluctant to sell due to cost pressure, leaving overall transactions sluggish. Demand side, downstream battery plants mainly purchased based on rigid demand under long-term contracts, while wait-and-see sentiment for spot orders remained strong. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums. Data Source Statement: Except for public information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

In the spot market, during this week (March 16, 2026-March 20, 2026), downstream battery enterprises gradually resumed operations to full production, and transactions in the spot primary lead market gradually improved. This week, mainstream transaction prices for primary lead in Henan were quoted at parity or slight premiums to the SMM #1 lead average price. Supply in Hunan was relatively tight, and smelters and suppliers quoted premiums of 30-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead, with transactions concluded on just-in-time demand. This week, secondary refined lead was held firm and sellers were reluctant to sell due to losses on production and other factors. After downstream operations gradually resumed, just-in-time procurement mainly focused on primary lead, and spot transactions in the primary lead market improved slightly WoW.

Lead concentrate TCs remained stable this week, but it was no longer common in the Chinese market for silver-bearing lead concentrates to be extremely hard to find. As silver prices remained in the doldrums and there were no bullish expectations for lead prices for the time being, smelters also expected a decline in by-product revenue. As a result, smelters no longer accepted bargaining over lower TC quotes. Demand for all types of raw materials, including lead concentrates and silver-bearing lead concentrates, was mainly driven by rigid demand, and actual transactions were relatively muted. Silver prices retreated from highs, but market traders still held certain expectations for a catch-up rally in silver prices over the medium and long term. At present, the payable indicator for silver in lead concentrates with various silver contents remained stable, and neither mines nor smelters intended to adjust prices.

SMM News, March 20: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,911/mt. During the 9:00–12:00 session, LME lead fluctuated rangebound within $1,906–1,915/mt, holding up well overall and touching a high of $1,915.5/mt. After 12:00, LME lead turned into a unilateral downward trend, plunging to a low of $1,872.5/mt. During the night session, LME lead bottomed out, and by the close it fluctuated higher to repair losses to the $1,895–1,898/mt range, finally closing at $1,897/mt, down $16/mt, or 0.84%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,300 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead fluctuated upward and touched a high of 16,480 yuan/mt, then dropped back slightly and fluctuated rangebound within 16,395–16,460 yuan/mt. It finally closed at 16,435 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 20 yuan/mt, or 0.12%. Yesterday, SHFE lead pulled back. Suppliers of primary lead showed average willingness to ship, while smelter quotes remained stable; supply in the secondary lead market was relatively ample, and smelters held prices firm on shipments, with overall transactions poor. Downstream battery plants maintained full production, mainly purchasing for rigid demand and long-term contracts, while spot order transactions were mediocre. SMM expects lead prices to remain in the doldrums with fluctuations in the short term.

This week (March 12, 2026–March 18, 2026), the average operating rate of primary lead smelters in the three provinces was 62.59, up 1.52 percentage points WoW. This week, production at smelters in Henan fluctuated slightly but increased overall, while a mid-sized smelter in Hunan resumed production this week, contributing the main increase in output; in Yunnan, one smelter slightly raised production, while the resumption of operations at another smelter was delayed until late March. In addition, some small-scale smelters in Yunnan still had no expectations of resuming production due to raw materials, downstream orders, and other factors.

This week, prices of 304 stainless steel scrap off-cuts in east China strengthened to 10,000-10,100 yuan/mt; prices of stainless steel scrap off-cuts of the same specification in Foshan also rose, with the price range at 9,600-9,900 yuan/mt. In terms of raw material production costs, the current cost of producing stainless steel entirely from stainless steel scrap was about 14,098.03 yuan/mt, while the cost of production using only high-grade NPI was 14,786.98 yuan/mt. This week, stainless steel scrap prices fell back, mainly driven by macro sentiment disruptions, weak futures, and pressure on both supply and demand. Escalating geopolitical conflicts, coupled with hawkish remarks from the US Fed, dragged SS futures into the doldrums overall, with the bearish impact directly transmitted to the spot market. Stainless steel finished product prices also pulled back across the board, and market pessimism gradually spread. Prices of substitute raw materials also pulled back, while stainless steel mills showed a strong inclination to push for lower prices. NPI traders turned weaker in sentiment and sold at low prices, and the high-grade NPI market also softened. In addition, Tsingshan's April tender price for high-carbon ferrochrome was set low, not only below previous market expectations but also lower than current retail quotations, limiting room for ferrochrome prices to rise and eliminating the support from substitute raw materials for stainless steel scrap. Currently, inventory at stainless steel scrap yards remained relatively high. Coupled with tight tax invoice availability, stainless steel mills were not active in procurement tenders, and the procurement pace continued to slow down. Amid the resonance of multiple bearish factors, stainless steel scrap prices fell in line with futures and finished products. Although stainless steel scrap still maintained a clear economic advantage over high-grade NPI, under the overall weak market atmosphere, cost support was difficult to translate into price support and failed to reverse the downward price trend. Overall, the stainless steel scrap market this week showed a weak pattern of "futures drag, weaker raw materials, and pressure on supply and demand." In the short term, bearish factors are expected to dominate, and stainless steel scrap prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM Nickel, March 20: Macro and Market News: (1) The Party Committee of the People's Bank of China held an enlarged meeting on March 18, which stated that it would continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, firmly safeguard the stable operation of financial markets such as equities, bonds, and foreign exchange, and advance legislative formulation and amendments including the People's Bank of China Law and the Financial Stability Law. (2) The interest rate futures market priced in only 5.5 basis points of US Fed interest rate cuts this year, and bets on rate hikes began to emerge. Spot Market: On March 20, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the mainstream China electrodeposited nickel brands were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) staged a sharp rebound, closing the morning session at 134,780 yuan/mt, up 1.50. Yesterday, nickel prices once fell below the 130,000 yuan mark, as trades on expectations of a global economic recession triggered by escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East put the metals complex under pressure overall. Nickel prices then took the lead in rebounding sharply, recovering to around 135,000 yuan/mt in the morning session. Short term, sentiment from the macro perspective may continue to dominate the market, and nickel prices may maintain wide swings.

[SMM Daily Brief Review on Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, most coke producers still faced slight losses, suppressing their willingness to increase production, and overall supply remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, shipments from coke producers improved, and coke inventory continued to destock. Demand side, blast furnaces at steel mills resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments recovered, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm. However, downstream buyers mostly maintained just-in-time procurement and lacked willingness to purchase for restocking. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke fundamentals still existed, and the coke market may remain stable next week.

SMM, March 19: During the day, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,571 yuan/mt. Prices edged up slightly in early trading, but upward momentum was limited and failed to surpass the night session high. In the afternoon, affected by the broad decline in base metals, lead prices quickly fell to 16,405 yuan/mt. Although SHFE lead prices rebound slightly toward the close, the rebound was limited, and it finally closed at 16,415 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 235 yuan/mt, or 1.41%. Supply side, secondary lead smelters showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, with limited spot order shipments and overall tight supply. Demand side, downstream battery enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, showing clear resistance to high premium quotations, with strong wait-and-see sentiment. Spot order transactions were sluggish, with only long-term contracts supporting a small amount of demand. Overall, the cost side of smelters still provided some support, but weak downstream demand constrained upside room. Lead prices were unlikely to see a trending market in the short term and would most likely maintain sideways movement within a range. Data source statement: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.