On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.

MMG Limited (MMG) has made a strong start to 2026, delivering solid first quarter production results and safety improvements.Total copper production, including copper in concentrate and cathode, increased nine per cent year-on-year to 128,698 tonnes. A result underpinned by robust performances at Las Bambas and Kinsevere. Precious metals production was also impressive, with gold output increasing by 24 per cent and silver by 27 per cent compared with the prior year period. Group precious metals production totalled 32,177 ounces of gold and 2,888,861 ounces of silver. Total zinc production was 50,263 tonnes, three per cent lower than the prior year.

According to SMM, the Peruvian government has acknowledged for the first time the existence of large-scale informal copper ore mining, and warned that high prices could lead to an increase in such activities in the near future. Energy and Mines Minister Jorge Montero told foreign media in Lima on Tuesday that the government remains vigilant about large-scale informal copper ore mining, particularly in the area where the mining rights belong to the Las Bambas copper mine operated by China's Minmetals Resources. "This is the largest informal copper ore mining activity we have discovered so far," Montero said. "It is worth noting that we already have large-scale copper ore mining operations in that area.

On June 3 (Tuesday), the Peruvian government acknowledged for the first time the existence of large-scale informal copper mining, and warned that high prices could lead to an increase in such activities in the near future. Jorge Montero, the Minister of Energy and Mines, told foreign media in Lima on Tuesday that the Peruvian government remained vigilant about large-scale informal copper mining, particularly in the area where mining rights belong to the Las Bambas copper mine operated by China's MMG Ltd. "This is the largest informal copper mining operation we have discovered so far," Montero said. "It is alarming that we already have large-scale copper mining operations in that area." The informal mine, named Apu Chunta, is operated by the indigenous community of the Pamputa tribe. Its annual production is estimated at 30,000 mt, worth approximately $300 million at current prices. Although Pamputa owns the land, Las Bambas holds the rights to mine copper. The mining company also plans to build an open-pit mine in the area in the 2030s, for which it must purchase land from the community. Informal mining activities and conflicts between mineral resource owners and concession holders have become a critical issue in Peru's mining industry, and the government is striving to find a balanced solution. Peru's rich mineral deposits have attracted thousands of small-scale miners, who mainly operate on land without mining rights. Informal operators have encroached on exploration projects operated by Southern Copper Corp. and First Quantum Minerals Ltd. The minister also mentioned that Teck Resources Ltd.'s Zafranal project had been affected. To be sure, informal copper production remains negligible compared to formal production. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

[SMM Analysis:April China's Copper Concentrate Imports: Unexpected Yet Reasonable ] In April 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates reached a record 2.9244 million tons, up 22.16% month-on-month, 24.55% year-on-year, and 7.46% year-on-year cumulatively. It is not difficult to observe that from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing rough smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrate imports driven by the sharp increase in demand was reasonable, but such a high import volume was still unexpected. Let's specifically analyze the main sources of this high-level copper concentrate imports.

[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrates Imports in April: Unexpected Yet Reasonable] In April 2025, China's copper concentrates imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% on a cumulative YoY basis. It is not difficult to observe that from year-end 2024 to H1 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrates imports, driven by a significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, was reasonable. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates came as a surprise. We attribute the high volume of copper concentrates imports to the following factors.

According to a report on the BNAmericas website, Peru's copper production in Q1 was 666,455 mt, up 3.88% from 641,543 mt in the same period last year. The growth was mainly driven by medium-sized copper producers, such as Las Bambas and Anglo American, which are set to become top local producers.

According to BNAmericas, Peru's copper production reached 666,455 mt in Q1, a 3.88% increase from 641,543 mt in the same period last year. The growth was mainly driven by mid-sized copper companies, such as Las Bambas and Anglo American, which are set to become the top local producers. According to the Ministry of Energy and Mines, Peru's copper production in March was 229,850 mt, compared to 220,000 mt in January and 217,000 mt in February. The Moquegua region is home to Anglo American's Quellaveco and Southern Copper. Southern Copper Corporation, a subsidiary of Grupo México, remained the largest copper producer, with an output of 105,094 mt, accounting for 15.8% of the country's total production. The company operates the Toquepala and Cuajone copper mines, as well as the Ilo smelter. However, another major copper mine, Cerro Verde, owned by Freeport-McMoRan, saw its Q1 production decline by 7% to 100,147 mt. The Antamina copper mine produced 97,774 mt in Q1, a 7.6% decrease. The mine's shareholders are BHP (33.75%), Glencore (33.75%), Teck (22.50%), and Mitsubishi (10%). The Las Bambas copper mine, owned by MMG (a subsidiary of China Minmetals), produced 95,733 mt, a 70.9% increase, while Anglo American's production rose by 11.1% to 79,950 mt. Las Bambas contributed an additional 39,700 mt in Q1; otherwise, Peru's copper production would have declined. Chalco's copper production was 54,803 mt, a 36.5% increase. Minsur's Marcobre copper mine produced 34,599 mt, a 16.7% increase.

[SMM Analysis:The production output of the top 15 mining enterprises in Q1 has been released, and the supply of copper concentrate is not optimistic ] The copper production of the top 15 mining enterprises in the first quarter of 2025 has been released. According to SMM statistics, the copper production of the top 15 mining enterprises in the first quarter was 2,967 kt, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.8%. However, judging from the production data in the first quarter, the raw material supply this year seems not optimistic.

[SMM Analysis: Q1 Production of Top 15 Miners Released, Copper Concentrates Supply Not Looking Optimistic] The copper production of the top 15 miners in Q1 2025 has been released. According to SMM statistics, the Q1 copper production of the top 15 miners was 2,967 kt (metal content), down 0.8% YoY and 12.8% QoQ. However, based on the Q1 production data, the raw material supply this year does not seem optimistic.