As of April 24, the mainstream price in the south China market — SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was at a discount of 345 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the mainstream price in the east China market — SMM A00 aluminum was at a discount of 130 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. The price spread between the two regions had exceeded 200 yuan/mt, covering sea freight, short-haul transfer, and logistics costs, officially opening up the transshipment window between Guangdong and Shanghai...

According to SMM data, as of April 24, social inventory of aluminum ingots in China's major consumption regions stood at 1.465 million mt, up 42,000 mt WoW, maintaining an inventory buildup trend for multiple consecutive weeks, with the pace of buildup widening again WoW. Weekly warehouse withdrawals rebounded slightly by 14,200 mt WoW to 115,200 mt, but the improvement in withdrawals fell short of the recent increase in arrivals, indicating clearly insufficient momentum for inventory drawdown..

Recently, China's manganese sulphate market has exhibited an operating pattern characterized by "rigid cost underpinning and diverging demand structures." Battery-grade and industrial-grade manganese sulphate performed slightly differently, but the overall market maintained a steady-to-strong trend. Core raw material prices fluctuating at highs continued to push up production costs. Combined with steady demand release from the new energy sector, this provided strong support for manganese sulphate prices. Meanwhile, factors such as tightening liquidity at month-end and production adjustments in some producing regions caused minor disruptions, but did not alter the core logic of an overall strong market. In the short term, prices are expected to mainly fluctuate upward.

Recently, China's EMM market displayed a distinct dual pattern of "strong cost support with loosening at highs," with intensifying industry supply-demand and cost dynamics.

[Zinc Prices Fluctuated at Highs During the Week, Guangdong Premiums Declined] This week, premiums in the Guangdong region decreased by approximately 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, mainstream 0# zinc in the Guangdong region was quoted at discounts of 105~85 yuan/mt against the market, with the Shanghai-Guangdong price spread narrowing.

[Tianjin Zinc Ingot Spot Premiums Edged Up]: Spot premiums in the Tianjin area edged up this week, up 10 yuan/mt WoW. As of this Friday, domestic ordinary brands were quoted at a discount of around 50-120 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, premium brands at a discount of around 0-40 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, and Tianjin at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against Shanghai.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, from the perspective of invoice structure, the shortage of invoices dated this month at the domestic trade port intensified intraday, with suppliers generally raising their offer prices for cargoes with invoices dated this month, pushing SHFE copper spot premiums from discounts to premiums. Meanwhile, the price spread between cargoes with invoices dated this month and cargoes with invoices dated next month widened further, reflecting the continued disruption of the periodic invoice shortage on spot pricing. Affected by this, some downstream enterprises preferred to purchase directly from smelters to secure the issuance of invoices dated this month. Demand side, copper prices remain at elevated levels, and downstream purchasing has generally become cautious, dominated by rigid demand with limited willingness to chase higher prices. In addition, the Labour Day holiday falls next week, and some downstream enterprises have pre-holiday stockpiling needs, which may lead to a certain increase in purchasing, providing periodic support for spot premiums. Overall, under the combined effects of a tight invoice structure, pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, and high prices suppressing demand, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2605 contract are expected to maintain premiums next week.

This week (April 17–April 23), the SMM copper wire and cable enterprise operating rate was 67%, down 2.43 percentage points WoW. Copper prices fluctuated at highs this week, suppressing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and new orders for wire and cable enterprises weakened overall. By segment, power grid orders remained low with sluggish demand release; the telecommunications sector saw relatively stable orders, providing partial demand support. Notably, as temperatures rebounded and construction conditions improved, orders in the building sector showed a seasonal recovery. Inventory side, enterprises mostly maintained a just-needed pace for raw material procurement, primarily consuming existing raw material stocks, resulting in a 3.14% WoW decline in raw material inventory; on the finished goods side, affected by a slowdown in downstream cargo pick-up and insufficient new orders, inventory accumulated slightly, up 2.79% WoW. Looking ahead to next week, follow-up new orders are expected to remain weak, and copper prices fluctuating at highs are expected to weigh on downstream purchasing sentiment, with operating rates continuing their downward trend. Although the Labour Day holiday is approaching, uncertainty over copper price fluctuations remains high, and enterprises are generally cautious in their stockpiling willingness. Therefore, SMM expects the copper wire and cable operating rate next week (April 24–April 30) to decline 1.62 percentage points WoW to 65.37%.

SMM April 23 update: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 280 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,795 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,695 yuan/mt, up 515 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended its two-session decline and saw a notable increase, mainly due to the successive arrival of cargoes from northern regions. Some suppliers, under greater pressure to liquidate, actively lowered prices for shipments. Standard-quality copper premiums were adjusted down to 200 yuan/mt with deals concluded. Downstream buyers slightly increased procurement volume ahead of the weekend, and overall trading activity was slightly better than the previous day. The procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong today was 2.31, up 0.06 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.79, up 0.07 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, suppliers actively liquidated holdings and lowered premiums, with overall trading activity slightly better than the previous day. However, it was learned that most downstream players will be on holiday during the Labour Day holiday, and demand is expected to continue declining next week, with spot premiums likely to trend lower.

[Limited Fundamental Support for Prices, GO Silicon Steel Prices May Be in the Doldrums Next Week] In terms of supply, China's steel mills maintained a steady production pace. Regular GO silicon steel resources remained in ample supply, while high-grade Hi-B resources saw no supply expansion due to technical barriers and production schedule constraints. The overall market continued to exhibit a divergent pattern of "low-end surplus and relatively balanced high-end." On the demand side, downstream transformer enterprises continued to see weak orders, with end-user operating rates remaining moderate. Procurement was primarily need-based restocking, and pre-Labour Day holiday restocking demand release fell short of expectations. End-user enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see stance, concerned about a post-holiday price pullback, maintaining a cautious procurement pace.