[Rate Hike Expectations Disturb, SHFE/LME Zinc Price Ratio Rebounds to Around 7 and Fluctuates]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio rebounded to around 7 and fluctuated, while the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, US Fed rate hike expectations continued to heat up, base metals generally fell, and the market had not shaken off inflation concerns, with the LME zinc price center pulling back.

[Imported Concentrate Market] Bolivian transportation disruptions lingered this week, keeping imported ore offers relatively limited in the market. However, traders were strongly inclined to lower their quoted prices, with ordinary ore offers heard dropping to negative triple-digit levels. Yet persistently low SHFE/LME zinc price ratios kept smelters largely uninterested, resulting in overall sluggish transactions in the market this week.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a four-session losing streak, with the daily candlestick's center moving lower and the MACD bearish candlestick expanding. Pressured by macro rate hike expectations, the center of SHFE zinc shifted downward overnight. However, with the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio remaining weak, the zinc ingot export window is about to open. Monitor...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Zinc Center Shifts Downward Under Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes] Overnight, LME zinc recorded a large bearish candlestick, the lower Bollinger Bands provided support. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes increased, non-ferrous metals and global stock markets fell, the US dollar remained firm...

[Macro Improvement, SHFE/LME Zinc Price Ratio Fluctuated Near 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio fluctuated near 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, on the macro front, geopolitical conflicts were repeated, and the risk of short-term escalation temporarily eased. The market priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike within the year, and LME zinc experienced fluctuations after its center shifted downward.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Zinc Inventory Rises Notably, LME Zinc Center Moves Lower] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,579.5/mt, briefly rose to a high of $3,599/mt in early trading, then retreated from highs and fell all the way, dipping to $3,539/mt during the session. Then LME zinc rebounded slightly from the low to near the daily moving average and moved in a narrow range, finally closing down at $3,561.5/mt...

According to LME inventory data on June 16, zinc inventory increased by 17,400 mt or 16.24% to 124,550 mt, while LME zinc off-warrant stocks fell by 18,549 mt to 20,916 mt. Based on this, the LME zinc price once quickly dropped to $3,539/mt. According to SMM, this inventory increase was mostly due to traders converting off-warrant stocks into warrants, and the overall impact was relatively limited.

[Geopolitical Risks Dominate Market, SHFE and LME Both Move Lower] At the start of the week, the situation in the Middle East remained volatile, and LME zinc fluctuated; subsequently, the US dollar index declined, and LME zinc rose; however, as market expectations for the US Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer intensified and the US struck Iran, the center of LME zinc shifted lower; then, Trump announced the resumption of “heavy strikes” against Iran, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement was disrupted, and LME zinc quickly moved lower...

[Many Macro Disturbances, SHFE/LME Zinc Price Ratio Fluctuating Around 6.9]: This week, the SHFE/LME zinc price ratio fluctuated around 6.9, and the zinc ingot import window remained closed. Outside China, on the macro front, geopolitical conflicts were repeated, and the short-term escalation risk eased temporarily. The market priced in a 25 basis point rate hike this year, and LME zinc center shifted lower and then fluctuated.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2607 contract opened at 24,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, it briefly dipped to a low of 24,020 yuan/mt, then bears reduced their positions, and the price fluctuated upward, touching a high of 24,305 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed up at 24,265 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.41%. Trading volume decreased to 60,028 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,210 lots to 79,545 lots.