[Non-Farm Payrolls Data Exceed Expectations, SHFE and LME Zinc Prices Pull Back] At the beginning of the week, the gradual digestion of macro sentiment led to a decline in LME zinc; however, continued destocking of overseas LME zinc inventory provided bottom support for prices. Subsequently, as the market continued to await the delayed release of non-farm payrolls and CPI data, trading activity became more cautious, and LME zinc maintained a fluctuating trend.

【Copper】 SHFE copper rose again on Tuesday with increased open interest, as domestic buyers placed orders at low levels to support copper prices. Spot copper was at 81,565 yuan/mt today, with Shanghai spot discounts at 15 yuan/mt and Guangdong spot premiums at 190 yuan/mt. Overnight, the new US President softened his stance on comprehensive tariffs, without mentioning copper, but uncertainties remain high. With the wide spread between LME and US prices, the market is focusing on logistics changes. LME copper inventories continued to outflow, and based on the US annual refined copper imports of 800,000 mt, the expected increase in copper imports this year could be around 400,000 mt. On the indicator front, the US February manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8, while the composite PMI exceeded expectations. Eurozone manufacturing activity warmed up to 48.7, the highest in over two years, with Germany's changes boosting market confidence. Currently, domestic supply and demand support copper prices to continue fluctuating at high levels and test further upward. SHFE copper's adjustment time is short, and the pullback is likely to be limited under peak season buying demand. 【Aluminum & Alumina】 SHFE aluminum fluctuated downward today, first falling and then rising, with spot prices maintaining slight discounts. Over the past week, social inventories of aluminum ingots and billets decreased by 35,000 mt and 13,000 mt, respectively. Aluminum ingot destocking was slightly stronger than in the same lunar period in recent years. The market has expectations for peak season consumption, but spot feedback is moderate, and aluminum billet processing fees remain low. After a significant cost reduction, higher profits require larger deficit expectations. In the short term, SHFE aluminum faces resistance at 21,000 yuan/mt, with support at the low of the recent one-month range of 20,500 yuan/mt, waiting for a directional breakout. Alumina operating capacity fluctuates at historically high levels, with limited production cuts, and the supply-demand balance remains loose. Miners' sentiment to stand firm on quotes remains strong, with Guinea ore still above $90/mt. As some northern alumina companies face cash cost losses, alumina's decline may slow before ore prices loosen further. In the short term, it may hover around 3,000 yuan/mt, with attention on spot transaction changes. 【Zinc】 LME zinc inventories continued to pull back to 153,700 mt, with the 0-3 month discount narrowing to $14.5/mt. The overseas market's fundamental data improved, which is unfavorable for the import window to open. It is expected that the domestic and overseas markets will diverge slightly in the future. SHFE zinc fluctuated at high levels, with downstream buyers cautious about high prices and spot premiums weakening. Longs reduced positions at high levels, and SHFE zinc's weighted open interest fell by 3,155 lots to 232,900 lots, with capital outflows of 82.23 million yuan. In March, domestic smelters turned profitable, and refined zinc output is expected to increase by over 50,000 mt MoM. In Q2, mine-side increments are expected to be further realized, mainly tracking the resumption of production at Portugal's AI justrel. During the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April," consumption performance is moderate, but the increment is insufficient. Under the dual increase in supply and demand, SHFE zinc is likely to maintain a rangebound movement between 23,200-24,200 yuan/mt. 【Lead】 The domestic and overseas markets diverged slightly, with lead spot import losses widening to around 720 yuan/mt. LME lead inventories are at a high of 232,200 mt, and the possibility of the lead ingot import window opening in the future cannot be ruled out. The futures market weakened, and the spread between futures and spot prices narrowed to 180 yuan/mt. The news of a large smelter in Henan planning a 25-30 day maintenance at the end of March supported prices. Secondary lead smelters previously purchased raw materials at high prices, resulting in high costs, and the price difference between primary metal and scrap remained unchanged at 75 yuan/mt. Domestic smelters are profitable, maintaining high operating rates, and the raw material shortage remains unchanged. Some secondary lead smelters reduced production due to insufficient raw materials, but the overall expectation for production increase remains unchanged, with regional differences in lead ingot supply. Consumption is still in the off-season, with weak demand for car battery replacements, providing insufficient support for high lead prices. Attention is still needed on the pullback pressure near 17,880 yuan/mt. 【Nickel & Stainless Steel】 SHFE nickel rebounded slightly, with active market trading. Jinchuan premiums rebounded to 2,000 yuan/mt, while Russian nickel discounts were at 25 yuan/mt and electrodeposited nickel discounts at 100 yuan/mt. High-grade NPI prices remained strong, with Indonesian ore still affecting raw material pricing, and the latest quote was at 1,027 yuan/mtu. In terms of inventories, NPI inventories fell sharply by 6,000 mt to 23,000 mt, refined nickel inventories dropped by 1,900 mt to 47,000 mt, and stainless steel inventories slightly decreased to 990,000 mt. After the price decline, NPI remains the main support on the cost side, with strong support estimated near 130,000 yuan/mt. Technically, SHFE nickel has not yet weakened, waiting for shorts to mature. 【Tin】 SHFE tin fluctuated with a bearish line, briefly recovering 275,000 yuan/mt, with SMM spot tin at 273,700 yuan/mt today. Overnight, LME tin inventories decreased to 3,555 mt, with LME 0-3 month spot discounts at $55/mt. Currently, it is recommended that mid- and downstream buyers place orders near 275,000 yuan/mt as needed. Wa State is advancing the resumption of tin mine production, but the realization path is medium-term; the situation in the DRC remains unclear. Downstream, the market is concerned about the risk of the US imposing tariffs on chips, which may affect demand. It is inclined that tin prices will mainly fluctuate between 275,000-280,000 yuan/mt this week.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2504 contract opened at 23,750 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, shorts reduced their positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated upward to a high of 23,860 yuan/mt. Subsequently, longs reduced their positions, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward below the daily average line. Later, shorts took profits and exited, causing the center of SHFE zinc to move upward. It ultimately closed higher at 23,820 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt or 0.38%. Trading volume decreased to 58,989 lots, and open interest fell by 2,227 lots to 85,458 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Tariff Disturbances Combined with Inventory Reduction, LME Zinc Recorded a Long Upper Shadow Bullish Candle] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,808/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily moving average, briefly dipping to $2,801/mt. During European trading hours, bears reduced positions, and LME zinc quickly climbed to a high of $2,846/mt. Entering the night session, LME zinc gradually pulled back below the daily moving average. By the end of the session, the center fluctuated around $2,810/mt, closing with a gain at $2,809.5/mt, up $1.5/mt or 0.05%. Trading volume increased to 108,000 lots, while open interest decreased by 3,271 lots to 230,000 lots.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,178/mt, initially dipping to $9,155/mt before climbing steadily. Near the session's end, it peaked at $9,292/mt and finally closed at $9,291/mt, up 0.27%.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, Trump signed over 40 presidential executive orders on his first day in office; TASS: Preparations for a phone call between Putin and Trump have not yet begun; Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau: Supports the idea of a 1-to-1 retaliation against US tariffs; Japanese media: The Bank of Japan is moving toward a rate hike at this week's meeting; Central Huijin increased its holdings in broad-based ETFs in Q4 last year; Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: Appropriately increase the basic pension for retirees, with more inclination toward low- and middle-income groups; Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT): Studying the establishment of the second phase of the National SME Development Fund...

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Uncertainty Remains in Trump's Policies, LME Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,958/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc fluctuated around the daily moving average. During the European trading hours, LME zinc plunged downward, and in the night session, its center moved upward, fluctuating around $2,930/mt. By the end of the session, LME zinc continued to decline, hitting a low of $2,906/mt and finally closing down at $2,911/mt, a decrease of $46/mt or 1.56%. Trading volume increased to 80,676 lots, while open interest decreased by 1,330 lots to 222,000 lots...

【Copper Inventories】On January 3, LME copper inventories decreased by 1,550 mt to 269,800 mt. 【Aluminum Inventories】On January 3, LME aluminum inventories decreased by 4,500 mt to 630,150 mt. 【Lead Inventories】On January 3, LME lead inventories decreased by 4,100 mt to 238,100 mt. 【Zinc Inventories】On January 3, LME zinc inventories decreased by 3,775 mt to 230,325 mt. 【Tin Inventories】On January 3, LME tin inventories decreased by 25 mt to 4,735 mt. 【Nickel Inventories】On January 3, LME nickel inventories increased by 1,554 mt to 164,028 mt.

【Copper Inventories】On January 2, LME copper inventories decreased by 50 mt to 271,350 mt. 【Aluminum Inventories】On January 2, LME aluminum inventories decreased by 4,500 mt to 634,650 mt. 【Lead Inventories】On January 2, LME lead inventories decreased by 1,525 mt to 242,200 mt. 【Zinc Inventories】On January 2, LME zinc inventories decreased by 800 mt to 234,100 mt. 【Tin Inventories】On January 2, LME tin inventories decreased by 40 mt to 4,760 mt. 【Nickel Inventories】On January 2, LME nickel inventories increased by 1,938 mt to 162,474 mt.

【Copper Inventories】On December 11, LME copper inventories increased by 400 mt to 268,500 mt. 【Aluminum Inventories】On December 11, LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,000 mt to 677,600 mt. 【Lead Inventories】On December 11, LME lead inventories decreased by 1,975 mt to 266,575 mt. 【Zinc Inventories】On December 11, LME zinc inventories decreased by 2,100 mt to 274,950 mt. 【Tin Inventories】On December 11, LME tin inventories decreased by 20 mt to 4,665 mt. 【Nickel Inventories】On December 11, LME nickel inventories increased by 696 mt to 166,506 mt.