SMM News, Aug 17: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.76%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.58%. SHFE lead rose 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 0.99%. SHFE tin rose 0.85%. SHFE nickel rose 1%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.69%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.33%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.18%. The most-traded silicon metal contract was flat at 8,665 yuan/mt. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.94%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.77%, rebar fell 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.46%. Stainless steel rose 0.42%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.66%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.58%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 1.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.68%, and LME lead rose 0.42%. LME zinc rose 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.43%. LME nickel rose 0.62%. Precious metals: As of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 1.02%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.92%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.64%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.05%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe shipping container freight contract rose 8.59% to 1,725.5 points. As of 11:42 on Aug 17, midday moves in select futures: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Cooling rate-hike expectations provided support, but liquidity-risk disruptions limited gains, with silver prices consolidating at highs. Wait-and-see sentiment in the spot market was strong, and transactions tended toward small declines… Macro Front China: PBOC: Based on the demand of primary dealers for open market operations, the volume of 7-day reverse repo operations on Aug 17, 2026 was zero. Meanwhile, 565.5 billion yuan in overnight reverse repo operations was conducted. (Jinshi Data APP) [China Made Major Progress in Key Technologies for Rare Earth Detection] It was learned today that recently, China made major progress in key technologies for rare earth detection. For a long time, accurately determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths has faced the challenge of matrix interference, which has severely constrained precise control over the quality of rare earth products. To break through this technical bottleneck, a dedicated technical R&D effort was carried out relying on the Key Laboratory of the State Administration for Market Regulation (Rare Earth Product Detection and Traceability) established at Jiangxi University of Science and Technology. Through the unremitting efforts of the research team, breakthroughs were achieved in detection technology, and overall technical capabilities reached a new level. The research team successfully developed multiple key technologies for rare earth detection, among which the inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry method for directly determining the content of rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths was particularly outstanding. This technology successfully overcame bottlenecks of traditional detection methods, such as the need to separate the matrix in advance and high detection limits. It offers significant advantages including high sensitivity, high accuracy, and rapid detection, enabling direct and precise determination of trace rare earth impurities in high-purity rare earths and providing solid and strong technical support for quality control of rare earth products. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.55. According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 66.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 33.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 53.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike was 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike was 6.6%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said recent CPI data were encouraging, but inflation in May and June had still been relatively high; only if the momentum from June continued over the next three to four months could one be confident that prices were steadily returning to the 2% target. He supported keeping rates unchanged in July, saying inflation remained the biggest concern and that the economy and employment were “basically stable.” He warned that continued declines in retail sales would be concerning, as consumption is a key pillar of the US economy. In addition, he expressed concern about the recent pullback in productivity growth, saying that if AI-driven growth could not be sustained, the narrative around AI and monetary policy would need to be revisited. As for whether to reduce the number of policy meetings, Goolsbee said he had no strong view and was willing to wait for the working group’s recommendations. (Jin10 Data APP) Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius noted in global macro research released on August 16 that a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting “had become very unlikely,” unless the August data released in early September showed a dramatic shift—which was not his base case. This judgment was not based on a single data point, but on three main threads turning simultaneously: cooling consumption, employment trends nearing stagnation, and improving inflation. (Wallstreetcn) On the data front: Today will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial value added above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, and the US August NAHB Housing Market Index. Key Items to Watch: The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration will release data on total society-wide electricity consumption around the 15th of each month. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.22% and Brent up 0.46%. Oil prices edged up on Monday as traders looked for the next catalyst to drive direction. A new round of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, as well as the possibility of new US sanctions on Iran, heightened geopolitical uncertainty. (Jinshi Data APP) Data from shipping intelligence firm Kpler showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined over the past weekend as tankers came under attack and US-Iran talks also stalled. Five bulk commodity vessels passed through the strait on Saturday, while none passed on Sunday, a sharp drop from 31 over the previous weekend. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Update: Mild PPI Lowered the Probability of a September Rate Hike to 32%; 430,000 Round Number Closed, Breaking Through for the First Time This Week]

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Repeated Swings in Macro Sentiment Coupled With a Tight Supply Gap on the Ore Side, Tin Prices Swing Wildly at Highs]

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

SMM News on August 14: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals in the domestic market declined. SHFE copper fell 0.2%, and SHFE aluminum fell 1.2%. SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.51%. SHFE tin rose 0.17%. SHFE nickel fell 1.12%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 1.43%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged down slightly. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.63%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 1.27%. Most ferrous metals rose. Iron ore rose 0.42%, rebar rose 0.43%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.71%. Stainless steel fell 1.97%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.25%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.29%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:39, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum fell 0.23%, and LME lead fell 0.37%. LME zinc fell 0.45%. LME tin fell 0.24%. LME nickel fell 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.9%, and COMEX silver fell 1.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 1.94%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.36%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 2.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 3.33%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract fell 1.3% to 1,593.5 points. As of 11:39 on August 14, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Platinum: Spot: mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract, alongside the exit the market of some large-discount cargoes and a narrowing import price spread... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded net injections of 348 billion yuan on the day; net injections of 250.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 349 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in outright reverse repos today. As 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured today, it recorded net injections of 348 billion yuan on the day. This week, the PBOC conducted 18 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, 349 billion yuan of overnight reverse repos, and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos. As 116.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repos matured this week, it recorded net injections of 250.5 billion yuan for the week. (Jinshi Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 99.89. The US July PPI data showed inflation was cooling, and coupled with falling oil prices, the market further bet that the US Fed would not raise rates next month. (Wallstreetcn) The US July PPI came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed the consumer price data, which showed inflation was slowing down, further confirming signs that the early-war energy shock continued to fade. However, the recent renewed escalation in the Middle East raised concerns about sticky inflation. Before the next policy decision in mid-September, US Fed officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data as well as another labour market report. At present, policymakers need to balance persistent inflation pressures against the recent slowdown in hiring. The PPI also includes several components that the US Fed watches closely because they feed into its preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Signals from these components were mixed. Portfolio management fees posted the biggest increase in more than a year, and hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while prices for physician services and hospital inpatient care were mild. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed keeps rates unchanged through September was 65.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 34.8%. The probability that the US Fed keeps rates unchanged through October was 50.1%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 41.8% and a cumulative 50-bp hike was 8.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: Speculative investors increasingly bet that the RBA will raise rates again in November, as inflation remains above the central bank’s target. Swap market pricing currently implied about a 45% probability of a 25-bp hike by November, up from 38% before Tuesday’s RBA rate decision. November 2026 interbank cash rate futures traded on the ASX derivatives market saw activity rise to the highest level in more than three months on the day, indicating stronger speculative interest. These bets suggested the market was increasingly skeptical that the RBA’s tightening cycle has ended. Although policymakers kept rates unchanged this week, with inflation still above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range, traders will continue to watch upcoming price and labour market data for clues on whether another rate hike is needed this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today, the following data were due to be released: China’s July total electricity consumption (YoY; TBD) and China’s July total electricity consumption (TBD); the US July retail sales (MoM), the preliminary US August 1-year inflation expectations, the US June business inventories (MoM), and the preliminary US August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; France’s final July CPI (MoM); the eurozone revised Q2 GDP (YoY), the final Q2 seasonally adjusted employment (QoQ), and the eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance; Canada’s June wholesale sales (MoM), among others. In addition, China’s refined oil products will enter a new pricing adjustment window (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets edged up, with WTI up 0.09% and Brent up 0.06%. The IEA and OPEC successively lowered their demand expectations, while tensions around Iran remained elevated but did not further escalate, capping oil price gains. Pressure in the refined products market was more severe, with the US diesel crack spread nearing $100 per barrel, close to the peak seen in early March when the US-Iran conflict first erupted. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Tuesday that over the past week, the daily average crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz was about 9 million barrels, higher than most industry estimates, and the market faced significant uncertainty in assessing the actual size of the supply shortfall. Francisco Blanch, Head of Global Research at Bank of America, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: Unless the geopolitical situation improves, it is hard for me to see oil prices pulling back quickly. If inventory is depleted, price fluctuations are bound to amplify sharply, and demand will then be forced to contract. (Wallstreetcn) Spot Market Snapshot: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: SHFE Tin 2609 Pulled Back on Position Reduction to Close at 427,490, with Capital Outflow of 221 Million]

SMM August 14 news: On the metals market front: Overnight, base metals in both overseas and domestic markets broadly fell, with only LME copper, LME tin, and SHFE tin rising together. LME copper rose 0.18%, LME tin rose 0.52%, LME aluminum led losses with a 2.28% decline, SHFE nickel fell 0.88%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%, and the remaining metals saw modest fluctuations in their declines. The main alumina contract rose 0.26%, while the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.9%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose, with stainless steel the only decliner, down 0.83%. Rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore all gained around 0.4%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.7%, and coke rose 0.55%. On the precious metals front, overnight COMEX gold fell 1.35%, and COMEX silver fell 1.7%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold fell 1.24%, and SHFE silver fell 1.48%. As of 6:38 on August 14, overnight closing prices: Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's New Round of Continuous Air Quality Improvement Action Plan Is Being Formulated] The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (13th) as part of the themed series "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan". At the briefing, it was noted that China's air pollution control achievements are encouraging, but there is still no room to relax or take a break, and patience and resolve must be maintained. At present, a new round of continuous air quality improvement action plans is being formulated at an accelerated pace, and the battle to defend blue skies will focus on being "higher, more accurate, and more scientific." (CCTV News) [National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Cumulative Trading Volume Exceeds 900 Million mt] Huang Runqiu, Minister of Ecology and Environment, said at the press conference on the themed series "Getting Off to a Good Start in the 15th Five-Year Plan" held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 that as of the end of July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had exceeded 930 million mt, which has effectively promoted green and low-carbon transformation while driving low-cost carbon reduction across industries. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promote the Issuance of "Computing Power Vouchers," "Model Vouchers," and "Corpus Vouchers" to Lower the Cost of Using Digital Factors such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Action Plan for Implementing the Several Measures on Further Promoting Private Investment Development." It mentions carrying out computing power subsidies in accordance with laws and regulations, supporting private enterprises in renting intelligent computing resources for R&D training and application of large models, and encouraging universities, research institutions, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing power resources built by various types of business entities, including private enterprises. It will publish and dynamically update a public data openness list, support private enterprises in conducting deep development and scenario-based utilization of specific public data, promote the issuance of "computing power vouchers," "model vouchers," and "corpus vouchers," and reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark enterprises and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, guide private enterprises to participate in digital transformation project construction and scenario operations in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It will encourage private enterprises to build new-type infrastructure demonstration projects such as blockchain applications and large-scale robotics applications. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 99.96. The US July PPI data came in below expectations, helped by further declines in energy and food costs. The PPI report followed consumer price data, which showed inflation is slowing, further confirming signs that the energy shock from the early stage of the war is continuing to fade. However, the recent re-escalation of Middle East tensions has raised concerns about stubborn inflation. Fed officials will receive additional consumer and producer price data as well as another labour market report before their next policy decision in mid-September. At present, policymakers need to balance persistent inflation pressures against a recent slowdown in hiring. Several PPI components are also particularly watched by the Fed because they feed into its preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index. The signals released by these components were mixed. Portfolio management fees recorded their largest increase in more than a year, hospital outpatient care costs also rose sharply, while prices for physician services and hospital inpatient care were mild. (Jinshi Data APP) Market pricing showed an increase in bets that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in September. The probability that the Fed would keep interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range in September was around 65%, up from around 60% before the PPI report. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed official Hammack said in the latest remarks: "The Fed must raise interest rates now because current policy is not restrictive, and inflation has risen amid recent shocks. Excessively rapid growth could put additional pressure on prices. Rate hikes may bring pain, but we cannot allow economic and investment growth to become so rapid that the economy overheats. Current inflation is broad-based, not limited to certain sectors. The Fed must be held accountable for inflation data, which is very important." (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 65.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 34.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in October is 50.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate hike is 41.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 bps rate hike is 8.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) On the macro front: Data due for release today include China's July total electricity consumption YoY (TBD), China's July total electricity consumption (TBD), the US July retail sales MoM, the US August preliminary one-year inflation expectations, the US June business inventories MoM, the US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, France's final July CPI MoM, the Eurozone Q2 GDP YoY revision, the Eurozone Q2 seasonally adjusted employment QoQ final, the Eurozone June seasonally adjusted trade balance, and Canada's June wholesale sales MoM. In addition, a new round of price adjustment windows for domestic refined oil products will open (TBD), and the National Energy Administration will release total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month (TBD). On the crude oil front: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI crude down 2.47% and Brent crude down 2.23%, both notching a second consecutive decline. According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, a spokesman for Iran's Joint Military Command said: "Without approval, no ship can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any ship transiting the Strait of Hormuz must obtain Iran's permission, and Iran is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces are monitoring US movements in the region. Trump's claims about controlling the Strait are lies and merely a display of his military's helplessness. From past to present, the US military has long had a full taste of the strength and steadfastness of the Iranian nation. The US keeps seeking to do evil and create instability in the region, and its groundless threats, in the face of the unprecedented comprehensive readiness of heroic Islamic fighters in the armed forces, will only appear even more helpless and powerless. Iran's armed forces will not hesitate in the slightest in defending the nation's rights, national sovereignty, the ideals of the Islamic Revolution, and our dear country, and will respond to any type and any level of threat with heavier and fiercer responses than before." (Jinshi Data APP) Iraq's Oil Marketing Company said that a major Abu Dhabi energy company is among the companies that purchase its crude and ship cargoes out through the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier reports said the trading arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company moved cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz to offer Iraqi crude supplies to Asian buyers, a practice that typically involves tankers switching off their transponders to avoid detection, ensuring Middle Eastern oil continues to flow to global markets. Ali Nizar, director general of Iraq's Oil Marketing Company, said Iraq's oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz jumped to about 2 million barrels per day this month. While that is up from levels in the months after the start of the Iran war, it remains below the country's total exports of about 3.4 million barrels per day before the conflict. (Jinshi Data APP)

SMM News on August 13: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals in the domestic market moved lower. SHFE copper fell 0.5%, and SHFE aluminum fell 0.9%. SHFE lead rose 0.63%. SHFE zinc fell 0.27%. SHFE tin fell 0.86%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract fell 1.33%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.62%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract was flat at 148,840 yuan/mt. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.75%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.14%, rebar fell 0.5%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.37%. Stainless steel fell 0.93%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.27%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.73%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:45, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.2%, LME aluminum fell 0.89%, and LME zinc fell 0.4%. LME tin fell 0.18%. LME nickel fell 0.59%. LME lead rose 0.21% Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.02%, and COMEX silver fell 0.08%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.34%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.28%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.57%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping contract rose 1.75% to 1,630 points. As of 11:45 on August 13, midday performance of some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 108,100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for two consecutive days, arrivals decreased, and warehouse withdrawals increased slightly… Macro front China: [China Is Formulating a New Round of Action Plan for Sustained Air Quality Improvement] The State Council Information Office held a themed press conference today (the 13th) as part of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan” series, titled “A Good Start and Solid First Steps.” At the conference, it was noted that China has achieved encouraging results in air pollution control, but it is still not the time to relax or take a breather, and patience and resolve must be maintained. At present, a new round of the action plan for sustained air quality improvement was being formulated on an accelerated basis, and the Blue Sky Protection Campaign will focus on making efforts that are “higher, more precise, and more scientific.” (CCTV News) [Cumulative Trading Volume in the National Carbon Emissions Trading Market Surpassed 930 Million mt] At a themed press conference of the “Getting Off to a Good Start for the 15th Five-Year Plan” series held by the State Council Information Office on August 13, Minister of Ecology and Environment Huang Runqiu said that as of month-end July, cumulative trading volume in the national carbon emissions trading market had surpassed 930 million mt, which, while promoting low-cost emissions reduction across industries, also strongly advanced the green and low-carbon transition. (Xinhua News Agency) [Shanghai: Promoted the Issuance of “Computing Power Vouchers,” “Model Vouchers,” and “Corpus Vouchers” to Reduce the Cost of Using Digital Factors Such as Public Data, Computing Power, Models, and Corpora] Shanghai issued the Action Plan for Implementing the “Several Measures on Further Promoting the Development of Private Investment.” It noted that computing power subsidies will be carried out in accordance with laws and regulations, supporting private enterprises in leasing intelligent computing resources for large-model R&D, training, and applications, and encouraging higher-education institutions, research institutes, and state-owned enterprises to use data storage and computing resources built by various business entities, including private enterprises. It will release and dynamically update a public data open-access list, support private enterprises in deep development and scenario-based utilization of specific public data, promote the issuance of “computing power vouchers,” “model vouchers,” and “corpus vouchers,” and reduce the cost of using digital factors such as public data, computing power, models, and corpora. It will cultivate benchmark enterprises and platform enterprises for urban digital transformation, and guide private enterprises to participate in the construction of digital transformation projects and scenario operations in areas such as transportation, logistics, and public services. It will encourage private enterprises to build demonstration projects for new-type infrastructure such as blockchain applications and scaled-up robot applications. (Jinshi Data APP) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Recorded a Net Drain of 1 Billion yuan on the Day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today; as 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net drain of 1 billion yuan on the day. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 100. US core inflation in July was mild, which likely eased pressure on the US Fed to raise interest rates. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, excluding the more volatile food and energy categories, core CPI in July rose 0.2% MoM. The YoY increase was 2.5%, unchanged from the lowest pace since March 2021. Overall, July CPI rose 0.1% MoM and 3.4% YoY. The report showed that the energy-price shock triggered by the Iran war continued to fade in July. As the US Fed debated whether to raise rates at its September meeting, these figures may have given it more room to balance inflation pressures against the recent hiring slowdown. Ahead of the September meeting, policymakers were set to see more reports on employment and inflation, and investors closely watched a speech that Fed Chairman Wosh was expected to deliver later this month at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. US equity index futures rose, and US Treasury yields were basically flat. Investors pared back bets on a September rate hike. According to CME “FedWatch,” the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through September was 59.9%, while the probability of cumulative hikes totaling 25 bps was 40.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged through October was 45.3%, while the probabilities of cumulative hikes totaling 25 bps and 50 bps were 44.9% and 9.8%, respectively. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research note said that the US July CPI fully met expectations; core inflation maintained a mild performance; and secondary inflation effects were weak, helping further ease market concerns about inflation risks. We still believe US inflation lacks strong stickiness, and the headline CPI YoY is expected to broadly maintain a mild slowdown through Q3 and hit bottom in September, then rebound slightly in Q4 this year and fall rapidly by next March. We still expect the US Fed to stay on hold throughout this year, and there remains room for further downward revisions to rate-hike expectations priced in by the derivatives market. A CICC research note said that US July CPI rose 0.1% MoM seasonally adjusted and 3.4% YoY; core inflation was 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY—both in line with market expectations. Energy prices continued to pull back, but since August international oil prices have risen again, increasing uncertainty over future energy prices. For core inflation, goods were relatively strong while services were relatively weak; in particular, prices of information technology products such as computers and software kept rising, reflecting that the supply-demand mismatch driven by the expansion of AI capex was gradually transmitting to the consumer side. We believe US inflation may have entered a new stage, with its drivers gradually shifting from supply shocks such as tariffs and oil prices to demand expansion brought by AI investment, which may correspondingly extend the duration of inflation. For the US Fed, these data eased short-term pressure to hike rates, but compared with supply-driven inflation, demand boost–driven inflation requires greater attention from policymakers. Other currencies: RBA Assistant Governor Kent said Australia’s monetary policy was currently restrictive; three consecutive rate hikes earlier this year were now weighing on the economy, and a stronger Australian dollar had further reinforced this effect. He said, “Evidence suggests that Australia’s monetary policy is somewhat restrictive, and the tightening implemented earlier this year is taking effect. Borrowing costs have risen, mortgage repayments have increased, conditions in the established housing market have weakened, and the Australian dollar has also appreciated year to date.” He said that growth in aggregate demand appeared to be slowing down, adding that this was what policymakers wanted to see and was necessary to bring inflation back to target. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of the US 10-year Treasury auction (Aug 12) high yield, the US 10-year Treasury auction (Aug 12) bid-to-cover ratio, US initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug 8, the US July PPI y/y, the US July PPI m/m; the UK preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, the UK three-month GDP m/m for June, the UK June manufacturing output m/m, the UK June seasonally adjusted trade balance in goods, the UK June industrial output m/m; and the eurozone June industrial output m/m, among other data. In addition, JD.com will hold its Q2 earnings conference call; 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver remarks; and 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak on the economic outlook. Crude oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets were down, with WTI down 0.96% and Brent down 0.82%. Oil prices edged down as traders awaited signs of progress toward the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. On the Middle East situation, there were virtually no signs of any progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and US President Trump said the US had “complete control” over the waterway. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that as the US-Iran war continued, the global oil market faced a supply shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter, more than double its previous forecast; the oil supply shortfall in 2026 could reach the highest level in five years. According to the American Automobile Association, in the US, gasoline and diesel prices had never been as high as they were at this time of year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Snapshot: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: US July CPI Came in Mild, SHFE Tin 2609 Night Session Spiked to 433,700 Then Gave Back Gains]

SMM News on August 12: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.27%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.93%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc rose 0.7%. SHFE tin rose 1.44%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.93%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.97%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 3.69%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar rose 0.37%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Stainless steel rose 0.24%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.17%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.75%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.27%, and LME tin rose 1.14%. LME zinc rose 0.5%. Gains in LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel were all within 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.69%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.09%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 1.44% to 1,585.5 points. As of 11:46 on August 12, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to surge, while the spot market in South China faced pressure from the “three mountains.” First, high absolute prices combined with high premiums in reality prompted suppliers to rush to sell more to cash out... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today. As 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day. [Guangdong power load hit a new high for the fourth time this year] At 13:47 on August 11, power load on the Guangdong power grid hit a new high for the fourth time this year, reaching 175.7 million kW, up 6.53% YoY. At present, Guangdong’s power supply is stable and orderly. On the same day, loads in cities including Yangjiang, Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou within Guangdong Province hit record highs. ​​​(Guangdong Fabu) [C919 domestically produced large aircraft officially began operating international commercial routes] Starting today (the 12th), Air China’s Beijing–Ulaanbaatar route to the capital of Mongolia will be operated by the domestically produced C919 large aircraft, marking the official launch of international scheduled commercial route operations for the domestically produced large aircraft. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.87. The market awaits the upcoming US July CPI data, hoping to find clues on the Fed's rate path. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in September is 52.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 48.0%. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in October is 38.7%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 12.2%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said that the market will focus on the MoM change in the July inflation data to be released on Wednesday, as an increasing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation pulling back to 2% over the next two years" remains achievable without further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed's new chair Warsh recently dismissed this framework of linking policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Fed's current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick added that the working group established by Warsh seems in part to help construct a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clear, the old framework appears to remain in operation. Glenmede strategists said regarding the US July CPI that investors are anticipating another relatively mild inflation report, with headline CPI expected to rise 3.4% YoY, while core price pressures remain manageable. As US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices rose further in July, and the energy sector could once again bring pressure. However, the market reaction this time has been more stable, thanks to proactive measures and strategic reserve releases that maintained oil supply stability. The Fed has ample time before its next meeting to assess two inflation reports, giving it more time to evaluate whether energy pressures remain contained or begin to broaden, a distinction that could well influence future policy direction. Other currencies: According to foreign media reports, yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, and amid a lack of consensus on the yen's future direction, they are using derivatives to enhance trading flexibility. The one-week implied volatility for USD/JPY rose for a second straight session on Wednesday, after the gauge had declined for five consecutive sessions. The reason was that traders were positioning ahead of the release of the US inflation report. The data was expected to influence the US Fed's monetary policy outlook and the US dollar's trajectory. Additionally, volatility in longer-dated options also edged up. The rise in volatility reflected a divergence in market views. For short tenors, the market remained concerned about the possibility of joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market, so USD/JPY put options continued to trade at a premium over call options, showing that investors were seeking protection against a sudden drop in the exchange rate. However, over longer tenors, investors continued to buy call options to bet on a renewed rally in USD/JPY. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: Figures to be released today include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY, US July seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US July seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US July unadjusted core CPI YoY, and Germany's July CPI MoM final reading. In addition, Tencent will hold its Q2 earnings call, MSCI will announce its August index review, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will release its monthly Oil Market Report (the specific release times for the monthly reports are to be determined, typically published around 18-21 Beijing Time). Crude oil: As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1% and Brent up 0.92%. Uncertainty over the US-Iran deal outlook supported prices. Iran’s state television (IRIB), citing an advisor to the Supreme Leader, reported: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until relevant conditions are met. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad stated on the 11th that Iran was repairing natural gas production facilities damaged by the war, with daily capacity planned to rebound to 95 million m³ by the end of September. Paknejad said that reconstruction work on four damaged gas processing facilities was progressing rapidly, contractors had commenced work, and completion was anticipated ahead of schedule, restoring pre-war capacity. Earlier reports indicated that Iran's daily natural gas production had decreased by about 230 million m³ since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that, due to persistently severe restrictions on crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the degree of global oil supply disruption was greater than previously expected, prompting the EIA to raise its future oil price forecasts. The EIA projects that the 2026 Brent spot price will average $87/bbl, up from the prior forecast of $82/bbl ; and that the Q3 2026 Brent average will be about $85/bbl, with prices in the coming months largely sustaining levels seen in the first week of August. EIA says its latest forecast assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not caused additional production halts, and severe shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist into August . EIA expects that most Middle Eastern crude oil production will return close to pre-conflict average levels by early 2027. However, some supply disruptions are expected to persist until the end of 2027, at a scale of around 600,000 barrels per day. The average price for 2027 is forecast at $69/barrel, up from $65/barrel previously. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, Russia has started importing gasoline from the distant Indian market, after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused a severe domestic fuel supply shortage. According to shipping data provider Kpler, this marks the first time Russia has imported motor gasoline from a South Asian country. Kpler said the first gasoline cargo arrived on August 5, and more shipments may arrive in Russia in the future. These fuel volumes were shipped via a series of tankers linked to Russia, and were transshipped near Egyptian waters before heading to Russia. Kpler's chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said, "The emergence of Indian gasoline supply is particularly noteworthy." He said these cargoes from India, along with continued gasoline imports from Belarus and other neighboring markets, highlight the severity of the current domestic gasoline supply-demand imbalance in Russia, and also reflect how declining refinery operating rates are reshaping traditional Russian oil product trade flows. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►