As of Thursday this week, the average SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate price edged down slightly WoW. Demand side, trading sentiment was weak in mid-month, and some producers made inquiries recently, but as downstream orders remained unclear, acceptance of high-priced nickel salt was weak; supply side, due to uncertainty in Indonesia's recent MHP supply, MHP payables moved higher, driving up raw material costs for some producers and correspondingly lifting their quotes. Looking ahead, with the month-end procurement period approaching, attention should be paid to support from the raw material side for nickel sulphate prices. Inventory, this week upstream nickel salt smelter inventory index held at 4.7 days, downstream precursor plant inventory index fell from 7.1 days to 6.8 days, and integrated enterprises' inventory index held at 6.8 days; in terms of buyer-seller strength, this week the upstream nickel salt smelters' Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor held at 1.8, the downstream precursor plants' procurement sentiment factor fell from 2.7 to 2.6, and integrated enterprises' sentiment factor held at 2.4. (Historical data is available in the database.)

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate prices fluctuated this week, cobalt sulphate prices remained temporarily stable, and nickel sulphate prices dropped slightly.

SMM Nickel News, March 19: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, while Governor Milan believed rates should be cut by 25 basis points. The impact of developments in the Middle East on the US economy remained uncertain. The dot plot maintained expectations for one interest rate cut in each of the next two years, but the distribution turned more hawkish. Market bets on the US Fed's rate cuts for the full year were reduced from about 20 basis points to less than 11 basis points. (2) Powell believed interest rates were at the high end of the neutral range, or slightly restrictive, leaving policy in a favorable position, and said the current situation was not stagflation. This energy supply disruption was a one-off event. Regarding whether he would remain in office, Powell stressed that he would not leave before the investigation concluded, and might not leave even after it concluded. If no successor was confirmed, he would continue to serve as acting chair. Spot Market: On March 19, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 3,100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,750 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were quoted at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) plunged sharply during the session and closed the morning session at 131,760 yuan/mt, down 2.79%. Tensions in the Middle East remained elevated, and the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel triggered market concerns over rising energy prices, intensifying inflation, and economic slowdown. Safe-haven sentiment heated up. Combined with the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged while raising inflation expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts were revised down, causing metal prices to fall sharply across the board. Pressure from the macro perspective may continue to dominate market sentiment, and nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Daily Review: Sharp Drop in Nickel Prices Dragged Down Market Confidence, High-Grade NPI Price Center Pulled Back] March 19 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.07 MoM, and the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, up 0.02 MoM.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The US Fed Held Rates Unchanged, and LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,220.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,227/mt, after which bulls reduced their positions, and LME zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $3,130/mt near the close. It finally closed down at $3,132.5/mt, a decrease of $100.5/mt, or 3.11%. Trading volume increased to 16,556 lots, and open interest fell by 6,295 lots to 208,000 lots.

SMM, March 19: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,928.5/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, hitting a high of $1,938/mt. It then moved in a narrow range of $1,926-1,935/mt as bulls and bears were evenly matched. Entering the European session, bears took the lead, and LME lead began to fluctuate downward, falling to a low of $1,906/mt, before consolidating in a narrow range of $1,906-1,911/mt. Near the close, LME lead edged up slightly to settle at $1,913/mt, down $13/mt, or 0.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices surged to a high of 16,675 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward. Although prices rebounded slightly intraday, the rebound was weak, and lead prices again came under pressure and pulled back, fluctuating rangebound within 16,555-16,590 yuan/mt and touching a low of 16,555 yuan/mt during the period. It finally closed at 16,585 yuan/mt, posting a small bearish candlestick, down 65 yuan/mt, or 0.39%. China mine side, lead concentrate TCs remained weak, with some smelters operating at insufficient rates and market supply staying tight. On the imported ore side, the import window opened and expectations for price hikes emerged, but enterprises showed low willingness to pay, limiting additional volumes. Primary lead: inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Secondary lead: as losses widened, most secondary lead enterprises stayed on the sidelines and were reluctant to sell, tightening effective supply in the market overall. Downstream battery plants: after restocking demand was met, the procurement pace slowed down, and downstream demand remained weak. Overall, the market still showed a pattern of weak supply and weak demand. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums, and close attention should be paid to changes in secondary lead operating rates in late March and shifts in downstream purchasing strength.

This week, the second-life battery market showed clear structural divergence. On the cost side, although lithium carbonate prices saw a temporary uptick this week, they trended downward overall; nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, while cobalt sulphate prices remained stable. The cost side was mainly affected by fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices. On the supply side, driven by terminal energy storage demand, inventories of new battery cells at battery cell manufacturers were critically low, and the supply of Grade A battery cells was heavily diverted, causing supply in the second-life battery market to remain tight. On the demand side, 280Ah and 314Ah energy storage battery cells were subject to concentrated procurement in the market, resulting in severe shortages and noticeably rising prices. Meanwhile, demand in the EV sector remained weak, inventory was relatively sufficient, and second-life power battery cell prices stayed stable.

Current manufacturer expectations for this month and April remain cautious, with some companies having already lowered their April production forecasts.

On March 18, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained unchanged.

SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.