Nickel prices continued to rise sharply this week, with the market narrative shifting from last week's "fluctuating at highs after policy materialization" to "full fermentation of substantive supply-side shocks." Indonesia's Weda Bay nickel mine announced a May production halt for maintenance due to exhausted RKAB quotas, Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Huafei Nickel & Cobalt announced partial production line shutdowns from May 1 due to sulfur shortages, and the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East deepened the sulfur supply crisis. The three supply-side shocks combined to push nickel price centers sharply higher. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract broke through the 150,000 yuan/mt mark this week, while LME nickel briefly surpassed $19,500/mt intraday. Spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 150,000 yuan/mt this week, up 5,000 yuan/mt WoW. Spot premiums remained low as futures surged rapidly, with Jinchuan nickel premiums declining to 1,300 yuan/mt. Domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel maintained significant discounts, further highlighting the structural feature of "strong futures, weak spot" in supply-demand fundamentals. On the macro front, US-Iran negotiations reached a complete impasse this week, with expectations of prolonged geopolitical risks rising. The two sides diverged sharply on the Strait of Hormuz issue: Trump claimed Iran was "on the verge of collapse and requesting the strait be opened," demanding Iran hand over all enriched uranium; Iran emphasized its "absolute control" over the strait and demanded transit fees from passing vessels. Fed Chairman nominee Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at last week's hearing, and the market continued to digest this stance this week — CME Fed Watch showed a 99% probability of rates remaining unchanged in April and only about 3% probability of a cumulative 25bp cut by June, with monetary easing expectations virtually disappearing. Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was approximately 101,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of approximately 3,200 mt WoW. Looking ahead, although persistently high domestic inventory continued to pressure prices, Indonesia's Q2 triple shock of "ore tightening + sulfur supply disruption + MHP production cuts" is accelerating from expectations toward reality. After the Labour Day holiday, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 145,000-155,000 yuan/mt.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose, with SHFE copper down 0.29%. SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE lead rose 0.18%, SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.37%, hitting an intraday high of 152,230 yuan/mt, the highest since January 26. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were flat at 23,175 yuan/mt, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.45%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.6%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.08%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.77%, rebar up 0.31%, hot-rolled coil up 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.55%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.22%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.79%. LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead rose 0.49%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 1.14%. LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold edged up 0.07%, COMEX silver rose 0.65%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.07%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.13% to 2,252.9 points. As of 11:40 on April 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,540 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for two consecutive sessions, mainly due to weak downstream consumption... Macro front China: [31 World Firsts: China's Mineral Resource Inventory Published, with Continued Increase in Exploration Investment Planned for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released China's latest mineral resource inventory. China ranked first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. In 2025, China ranked first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, China's mineral production and smelting processing scale ranks firmly first globally. In 2025, the national mining output value was approximately 32.7 trillion yuan, accounting for over 23% of GDP. Resource reserves grew significantly, laying a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and controllability. Xiong Zili, Director of the Geological Exploration Management Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the state will continue to deeply implement a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration breakthroughs. The Ministry of Natural Resources will further improve the coordinated system for exploration, production, supply, reserves, and sales of strategic mineral resources, and strengthen security risk monitoring and early warning for strategic mineral resources. In terms of key directions, efforts will focus on scarce strategic minerals such as copper, iron, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while consolidating the resource position of advantageous minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, and tin. In terms of spatial layout, land-sea coordination will be strengthened, with active expansion of survey, exploration, and development space, and increased efforts in basic geological surveys. The goal is to submit a number of mineral sites ready for development by 2030 and form new capacity as soon as possible. The PBOC conducted 25.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%. Today, 6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.66. US Fed watchers did not expect significant changes to the Fed's statement, but they noted there could be some subtle adjustments. For example, officials might revise their description of the labour market to acknowledge that recent data suggested the labour market had stabilized despite less hiring activity. Some officials also wanted the Fed to make clear that the next policy move could be a rate hike—rather than an interest rate cut—as the Iran situation had intensified existing inflationary pressures. To signal this view, officials could slightly adjust the wording of "the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the benchmark rate." Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report: "A hawkish statement might remove the word 'additional,' as it implies a dovish lean and effectively signals a continuation of a series of interest rate cuts." The US Fed made three interest rate cuts at year-end 2025. Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chairman of the US Fed and economist, stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed would say that the labour market is roughly in a stable state at present. Regarding the inflation mandate, (as inflation remains elevated at 3%), there is still much work to be done." He expected the US Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how all this plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved labor market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, Switzerland's April ZEW investor confidence index, Eurozone April industrial confidence index, Eurozone April economic sentiment index, Germany's April preliminary CPI month-on-month, US March annualized housing starts, US March durable goods orders month-on-month, US March building permits, and Bank of Canada interest rate decision through April 29. Also noteworthy: Bank of Canada to release its rate decision and monetary policy report; US Senate Banking Committee to vote on advancing Waller's Fed Chairman nomination, with a full Senate confirmation vote to follow if passed; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers to hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.77% and Brent down 0.47%. Both WTI and Brent continued to pull back in the short term, fully erasing gains since the news that Trump planned to extend the blockade on Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials said Trump had instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade on Iran, a high-risk attempt aimed at striking Iran's fiscal revenue and forcing concessions on the nuclear issue. Officials said that in recent discussions, including a Monday White House Situation Room meeting, Trump decided to continue suppressing Iran's economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from Iranian ports. On April 28 local time, satellite imagery showed multiple oil tankers in waters near Iran's Chabahar Port, including 8 very large crude carriers and several small and medium-sized vessels, with a total capacity of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil. Chabahar Port is located on the Gulf of Oman coast in southeastern Iran. Although the port is located outside the Persian Gulf, it is already close to the blockade line set by the US. Analysts noted that as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly dropped to zero, rerouting some oil exports is one of the measures Iran has taken to minimize disruptions to its oil exports. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

SMM News, April 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.18%, SHFE zinc fell 2.46%, SHFE tin fell 1.88%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.58%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous three trading days, falling 4.11%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.62%, rebar fell 0.88%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.97%, and stainless steel rose 1.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.52%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged up 0.02%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead fell 0.31%, and LME zinc fell 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.32%. LME nickel rose 0.65%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 0.45%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.65%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.27%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.95%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.47% to 2,208.1 points. As of 11:39 on April 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, down 765 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,215 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and decreased warehouse withdrawals... Macro front China: [SASAC: Continue to push efforts in key areas such as NEVs and artificial intelligence, driving emerging industries to develop with greater momentum] A signed article by the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council published in Study and Research stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts must focus on opening up a "second curve" of growth, adopting tailored and coordinated policies for different enterprises, promoting smooth and strong succession of old and new growth drivers, accelerating the development of a batch of emerging pillar industries that lead future competition, and better supporting the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The article proposed coordinating the transformation of traditional industries with the development of emerging industries. On one hand, adhering to the direction of intelligentization, green development, and integration, deepening and expanding the "AI+" initiative, stepping up efforts in technological upgrading and equipment renewal, vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and further accelerating the transformation of traditional industries. On the other hand, following the approach of "leading a batch, catching up with a batch, and cultivating a batch," based on enterprise resource endowments and industrial foundations, adhering to differentiated layouts, further consolidating advantages in new energy, aerospace and other industries, continuing to push forward in key areas such as NEVs, artificial intelligence, and new materials, and proactively cultivating frontier tracks such as quantum information, nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy, driving emerging industries to build stronger momentum. (Jin10 Data) [Guangdong: Increasing Support for Trade-in of Bulk Durable Consumer Goods Such as Automobiles and Home Appliances] The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Guangdong Province was officially released. It mentioned the bulk consumption upgrade initiative. Promoting the "fiscal subsidies + enterprise discounts + financial empowerment" model, increasing support for trade-in of bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and continuing to implement consumption-boosting policies such as "Guangdong Premium Shopping." Implementing automobile replacement and retirement and renewal policies, encouraging eligible cities to issue subsidies for new car purchases. Expanding after-market consumption such as automobile modification and leasing. Accelerating the construction of recycling systems for automobiles, electronic products, home appliances and furniture. Actively, prudently, and orderly advancing urban village renovation under new models, expanding the supply of affordable housing, and better meeting housing consumption demand. The PBOC conducted 43.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%. 5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.5. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent US tariff policy adjustments could increase the federal budget deficit by $1.1 trillion over ten years, though the exact figure remained uncertain. CBO Director Swagel stated that the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating Trump's use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on his own would increase the fiscal deficit by $2 trillion over ten years, while other trade measures Trump had taken to offset this loss totaled $800 billion to $900 billion (in revenue). Swagel stated: "Because the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs and the government reimposed some, the fiscal deficit over ten years would be approximately $1.1 trillion higher."The government has significant power to impose new tariffs and adjust them, so it is difficult to determine the exact deficit amount before the entire process is concluded." Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on April 27 local time that with persistent inflationary pressures coupled with an economic slowdown, policymakers must remain cautious. Dalio said on Monday, "We are undoubtedly in a period of stagflation," warning that the US economy had fallen into a stagflationary environment. He noted that if Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over as Fed Chairman, chose to cut interest rates, it would be a policy mistake. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.5%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA House Price Index MoM, the US February S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted Home Price Index YoY, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also worth watching: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. On other currencies: [BOJ Kept Rates Unchanged as Expected, Three Members Advocated for a Rate Hike] The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, but three of the nine-member policy board proposed a rate hike, signaling concerns over inflationary pressures triggered by Middle East conflicts. The 6-to-3 vote also marked the largest split since Ueda Kazuo became governor. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the BOJ decided to keep the short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with broad market expectations. Board members Takada Hajime, Tamura Naoki, and Nakagawa Junko dissented, advocating for raising the rate to 1.0%. Nakagawa Junko argued that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation, price risks were tilted to the upside under accommodative financial conditions given economic developments. Tamura Naoki argued that given price risks were significantly tilted to the upside, the BOJ should set the policy rate as close to the neutral rate as possible. Takada Hajime argued that Japan's price stability target had essentially been achieved, and price risks had clearly tilted to the upside due to second-round effects of price increases triggered by developments outside China. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo is expected to brief the media on the decision later. (Jin10 Data APP) Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that three votes in favor of a rate hike was somewhat surprising, and that policy board member Nakagawa Junko also switched to supporting a rate hike. In Japan, the impact of the Middle East shock has begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to the price side. Meanwhile, the yen remains under depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to maintain its rate-hike inclination. If easing of Middle East tensions can be confirmed, the bank is expected to raise rates further around June-July. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 0.8%. The US-Iran deadlock remained unresolved, and market sentiment was generally cautious. According to the Wall Street Journal, as the US Navy enforced a blockade and negotiations remained deadlocked, Iran was scrambling to find new oil storage methods to avoid devastating production shutdowns. As oil piled up domestically, Iran was reactivating abandoned sites known as "junk storage," using makeshift containers, and attempting to continue exports by rail. These unconventional measures aimed to delay an infrastructure crisis and undermine US leverage in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Huatai Securities noted in a research report that, considering hindered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and limited alternative routes, combined with potentially months-long production resumptions at shut-in Middle East oil fields and a round of strategic restocking of crude oil, refined products, and other energy and chemical products globally after the strait reopens, the medium-term oil price center is expected to stay high, maintaining the 2026 Brent crude oil average price forecast at $90/barrel. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 27 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals rose across the board. SHFE copper was up 0.38%, SHFE aluminum up 0.3%, SHFE lead up 0.3%, SHFE zinc up 0.7%, SHFE tin up 0.48%, and SHFE nickel up 2.62%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract rose 3.36%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 4.47%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 786 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil rose 0.15%, and stainless steel rose 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.23%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.44%. Overseas market base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper was up 0.51%, LME aluminum up 0.95%, LME lead up 0.1%, LME zinc up 0.58%, LME tin edged down, and LME nickel was up 0.71%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.11% and COMEX silver fell 0.38%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.12%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.08%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.21%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.52%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.03% to 2,209.8 points. As of 11:43 on April 27, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 280 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 200 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 140 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,085 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,985 yuan/mt, up 290 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: After the weekend, Guangdong inventory declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals and some manufacturers stockpiling ahead of the holiday... Macro front China: [NBS: January-March profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises rose 15.5% YoY; non-ferrous sector profits surged 116.7% YoY] NBS data showed that from January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. From January to March, among above-scale industrial enterprises, state-controlled enterprises posted profits of 619.61 billion yuan (up 10.1% YoY), joint-stock enterprises 1.305 trillion yuan (up 20.9%), foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 383.73 billion yuan (up 1.2%), and private enterprises 430.53 billion yuan (up 25.4%). Yu Weining, Chief Statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the industrial enterprise profit data for January–March 2026: In Q1, facing a complex economic environment, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council promptly stepped up macro regulation efforts and proactively implemented more active and effective macro policies. The industrial economy steadily rebounded, profits of above-designated-size industrial enterprises grew at a faster pace, profits in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing grew rapidly, profits in raw material manufacturing posted double-digit growth, and the efficiency of industrial enterprises continued to improve. [National Energy Administration: China's Oil and Gas Supply Was Generally Stable and Orderly in Q1] The National Energy Administration held a press conference on April 27 to brief on the national energy situation and development achievements in Q1 2026. Xing Yiteng, Deputy Director of the Development Planning Department of the National Energy Administration, noted that energy security was effectively safeguarded. The impacts of the Venezuela crisis and the US-Israel-Iran conflict on China's energy supply were properly managed. In Q1, China's oil and gas supply was generally stable and orderly, with above-designated-size industrial crude oil and natural gas production up 1.3% and 3.0% YoY, respectively. Raw coal production remained stable despite a relatively high base in the same period last year, with above-designated-size industrial raw coal production up 0.1% YoY. The safety situation in the power sector was stable and improving, with efficient completion of power emergency responses to various natural disasters and successful completion of power supply assurance for the Chinese New Year and the Two Sessions. (Jin10 Data) [PBOC Achieved a Net Withdrawal of 382 Billion Yuan via Reverse Repo Operations] The PBOC conducted 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations matured today, a net withdrawal of 382 billion yuan was achieved. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.42. Multiple sources revealed that the US Department of Justice was expected to conclude its criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell as early as Friday, thereby ending the standoff that could have delayed the appointment of Powell's successor. Sources said senior DOJ officials recently contacted several senators, including Republican Senator Tom Tillis, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, informing them of plans to drop the investigation into alleged cost overruns in the renovation of the US Fed's Washington headquarters and refer the matter to the Fed's internal watchdog. Powell's term is set to expire next month, but he indicated in March that he would remain in office until Trump's nominee for Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh, is confirmed. According to the CME "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.7%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.3%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK's April CBI Retail Sales Balance, and the US April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index are scheduled for release today. Crude oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 0.85% and Brent up 1.11%. Crude oil futures rose at the start of Monday's session as peace talks between the US and Iran reached an impasse, while oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supply under sustained pressure. Crude oil futures prices swung wildly recently, as traders had to predict not only when oil exports from the Persian Gulf would resume, but also how long it would take for production in the region to recover to pre-war levels. Trump said on Sunday that Iran was facing growing domestic pressure due to its inability to export oil, which could cause long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts said on Sunday that they had pushed back their expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Meanwhile, they raised their Q4 WTI crude oil price expectations from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel. (Jin10 Data) Citi raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price for the remainder of 2026 on Sunday evening local time, stating that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continued to be disrupted through the end of June, oil prices could rise to $150 per barrel. The bank raised its base-case average price forecasts for Brent crude oil in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of 2026 to $110, $95, and $80 per barrel, respectively. Citi also pushed back its expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. Citi stated: "Given that significant gaps remain between the two sides on their respective red-line issues, we believe the risks are tilted toward the upside for near-term bullish sentiment and H2 2026 base-case oil price forecasts." In the bullish scenario (30% probability), Citi assumed that oil shipment disruptions would persist through the end of June at a scale similar to the current level of disruption. Under this scenario, Brent prices could surge to $150 per barrel, with Q2 and Q3 2026 averages approaching $130 per barrel, before pulling back to around $100 in Q4. The bank also proposed a "super bullish" scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remained closed beyond June, noting that this would have severe implications for the share of oil expenditure in both global and US economic output. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

LME nickel climbed to its highest intraday level in nearly two years as Indonesia’s mining quota cuts and a global sulfur shortage tightened the supply outlook. Since the start of the Iran war, nickel futures have risen by about 10%, with surging sulfur prices fueling concerns over disruptions to Indonesian MHP production and copper leaching operations in Africa. LME nickel briefly reached $19,350/t, the highest level since June 2024. Current market sentiment remains firm, with traders focusing on tighter Indonesian supply expectations and the potential impact of sulfur shortages on hydromet nickel intermediate production.

Driven by the recent rally in LME nickel and stainless steel futures, a leading Indonesian stainless steel mill suspended all offers over the weekend. According to SMM research, the move aims to mitigate rising raw material costs and prepare for a new round of price adjustments. With bullish sentiment prevailing, the market widely expects the mill to raise quotations upon Monday's opening. Other major mills are anticipated to follow suit, potentially driving a further upward shift in stainless steel spot price benchmarks.

Nickel prices trended higher in a volatile manner this week, with supply-side news serving as the core driver of price movements. At the beginning of the week, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract opened low near 140,010 yuan/mt. Mid-week, news that Indonesia's Weda Bay planned to halt production in May, combined with cost-side factors such as the implementation of Indonesia's new HPM tax policy and surging sulfur prices, pushed nickel prices higher for three consecutive days. On Friday, prices briefly broke through 146,000 yuan/mt, with a weekly gain of 0.99%. LME nickel strengthened in tandem, reaching a high of $18,850/mt, with a weekly gain of 4.11%. Spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 142,770 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premium declined to 1,900 yuan/mt, and mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel remained at a discount. Rising futures prices this week suppressed downstream pricing willingness, and overall trading was mediocre. Macro and market news, SHFE added two Indonesian refined nickel delivery brands "Yongheng" and "Dingxing" this week, further expanding the channel for low-cost Indonesian electrodeposited nickel to register for delivery in the Chinese market, which will exert sustained restocking pressure on SHFE warrants and domestic refined nickel social inventory. Starting from the evening of April 21, overseas investors were officially permitted to participate in SHFE nickel futures and options trading, further enhancing the openness of the nickel product. On the macro front, Trump extended the US-Iran ceasefire deadline last week, but substantial progress in US-Iran negotiations was severely lacking this week. Iran stated it had "no plan to engage in negotiations in the near term," and both sides continued to blockade the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, with tensions re-escalating. Fed Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh explicitly refused to commit to interest rate cuts at a confirmation hearing held by the Senate Banking Committee this week, stating he would focus on "underlying inflation." Inventory, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was approximately 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 97,000 mt, an inventory buildup of about 3,300 mt WoW. Looking ahead, Indonesia's quota tightening policy continued to strengthen, the sulfur supply crisis intensified, MHP production was hampered, and sulfur prices continued to rise amid tight supply, providing strong cost support. Combined with recent news of production halts and cuts at Indonesian smelters, nickel prices are expected to hold up well. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 140,000-150,000 yuan/mt next week.

SMM April 24 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals generally fell across both domestic and overseas markets. LME nickel and SHFE nickel both rose over 1%, with LME nickel up 1.68% and SHFE nickel up 1.65%. SHFE copper rose 0.04%, and SHFE tin rose 0.11%. The remaining metals all declined. LME copper and LME tin both fell over 1%, with LME copper down 1.19% and LME tin down 1.35%. The rest of the metals fell less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract fell 0.25%, and the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 0.04%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally rose. Stainless steel rose 1.14%, and iron ore rose 0.25%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar saw slight fluctuations. Coking coal and coke side, both coking coal and coke fell 0.51%. Overnight, precious metals side, COMEX gold fell 0.93%, and COMEX silver fell 3.21%. In China, SHFE gold fell 0.2%, and SHFE silver fell 1.58%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on April 24: Macro Front China: [General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council: The NDRC, NBS, and National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data] The General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Comprehensive Evaluation and Assessment Measures for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality." The measures stipulate that the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and the National Energy Administration shall establish a dynamic monitoring and early warning system for key data, regularly monitoring indicators such as carbon emissions, coal consumption, oil consumption, new electricity consumption, and new clean energy power consumption at the national level and across provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), and issue reminders and warnings to relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) as appropriate. (Xinhua News Agency) (Jin10 Data APP) [National Energy Administration: As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY] The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-March. As of end-March, China's cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 3.96 billion kW, up 15.5% YoY. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.24 billion kW, up 31.3% YoY; wind power installed capacity was 660 million kW, up 22.4% YoY. From January to March, the cumulative average utilization hours of national power generation equipment were 703 hours, down 66 hours from the same period last year. (Jin10 Data APP) [Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a notice on adjusting the trading fee standards for platinum and palladium futures-related contracts.] After deliberation, effective from the trading session on April 27, 2026, the trading fee standards for platinum futures PT2606 and palladium futures PD2606 contracts will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value, and the intraday close-today trading fee standards will be adjusted to 0.01% of the transaction value. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.22% to 98.83. Mitsubishi UFJ: Uncertainty over US trade policy persists. The Trump administration appears to favor a weaker US dollar. Concerns over US Fed independence remain given Warsh's nomination as Fed Chairman. (Jin10 Data APP) At the Senate hearing held this week, Warsh's performance was largely in line with expectations: he reaffirmed the importance of US Fed independence and elaborated on his views regarding US Fed reform, balance sheet reduction, and long-term economic trends. Although Trump has been publicly calling for interest rate cuts, Warsh made it clear that Trump had not asked him to make any commitments on cutting interest rates. However, the real highlight of the hearing was Warsh's in-depth discussion on "how to measure inflation." This is likely to become the new framework for defining price trends once Warsh takes the helm of the US Fed. (Jin10 Data) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April was 1%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 96.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 1%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Data to be released today include the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final reading, the US April one-year inflation rate expectations final reading, the UK April GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the UK March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the German April IFO Business Climate Index, Japan's March core CPI YoY, and Canada's February retail sales MoM. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets rose together. WTI crude rose 4.35% and Brent crude rose 4.02%, marking a four-session winning streak, driven by renewed escalation in the Middle East situation and heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Trump administration plans to extend a shipping waiver allowing foreign tankers to transport oil and gasoline within the US to address supply disruptions and price increases triggered by the Iran conflict. According to sources, the decision to continue exempting energy shipments from the Jones Act could be announced as early as local time Friday. The current waiver is set to expire on May 17. This move could provide some relief for US refiners that are beginning to book waterborne cargo for July. It remains unclear how long the extension will last or what range of commodities it will cover. A White House official said the extension was under consideration but provided no further details. (Jin10 Data APP) Analysts at ING said that due to slow progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, the market had to readjust expectations, as this raised concerns about the impact of prolonged supply disruptions on products. As regional mediators raced against time to get the diplomatic process back on track, and ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz escalated tensions, Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, briefly rebounded above $100 per barrel. However, these analysts noted: "If negotiations make no progress, the market will become increasingly numb to the various rumors and headlines that have been dominating oil price movements recently." (Jin10 Data APP)