Next week, due to the Labour Day holiday, China's SHFE and other exchanges will be closed on May 4-5; the LME outside China will be closed on May 4 for the Early May Bank Holiday. Key macro economic data includes US April ADP employment, US April unemployment rate, and US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, which are about to be released. Additionally, according to the latest news, the first batch of US tariff refunds will be issued around May 11, indicating a loosening of tariff policies, while we need to continue monitoring the progress of US-Iran negotiations. LME lead side, LME lead inventory decline slowed down, while the LME Cash-3M spread maintained a slight discount for nearly a week, indicating strong support for lead prices. The impact of Middle East events on shipping has not yet been resolved, and spot supply in Southeast Asia remains tight, especially with high-grade lead ingot premiums at elevated levels. Lead prices are expected to continue consolidating and await new factors. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,935-1,975/mt next week. SHFE lead side, downstream enterprises will be on concentrated holiday during Labour Day, while lead smelter maintenance or production shutdowns increased in April-May. However, the concentrated short-term consumption reduction still poses a significant risk of inventory buildup for lead ingots after the holiday. Combined with new delivery factors in May, lead prices may come under pressure and weaken before the holiday. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 16,450-16,800 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,650 yuan/mt. Supply side, primary lead and secondary lead smelters are undergoing concentrated maintenance, lead ingot supply is tightening regionally, and the import window for lead ingots has closed, reducing imported lead inflows. If lead prices weaken subsequently, spot discounts (against futures) in some regions will narrow, and secondary lead may even see an inversion (i.e., premiums against SMM #1 lead average price). After the holiday, downstream enterprises will resume production, but due to mediocre order performance, producers will maintain a produce-based-on-sales approach.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM April 30: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session to a high of $1,963/mt, then moved sideways between $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt during the European session, before shifting to fluctuate downward, eventually closing low at $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Futures initially dipped briefly before rebounding slightly, but encountered resistance above. The overall trend then shifted to fluctuate downward, touching a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, finally closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%; open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery manufacturers' periodic restocking largely concluded last week, with downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through lacking momentum and overall demand remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or shutdowns, with spot cargo continuing to tighten; meanwhile, ex-China lead ingot destocking continued, and domestic primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,963/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead moved sideways within $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt, then shifted to fluctuate downward, eventually closing at a low of $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices briefly dipped before rebounding slightly in the early session, but encountered resistance above. Subsequently, the overall trend shifted to fluctuate downward, probing a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, eventually closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. Open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Macro front: The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell will remain as governor. Warsh's Fed Chairman nomination passed a Senate committee vote. Trump: now is a good time to cut interest rates; Powell stays at the Fed because no one else wants him. Trump: believes the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts will end at roughly the same time; negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone, very conveniently. Iran stated that if the US continues to seize ships, it will respond with "unprecedented military action." Putin proposed a "Victory Day" temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and put forward suggestions on Iran's nuclear program; Trump suggested a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. World Gold Council: global central banks increased gold holdings at the fastest pace in over a year in Q1. Liu Haoling was appointed as CSRC vice chairman. China discovered 13 new 100-million-mt oil fields and 26 new 100-billion-m³ gas fields. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead maintained narrow-range fluctuations. Ahead of the holiday, suppliers actively made shipments, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce, with cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters as the main source. Some quotations were lowered from the previous day, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -20~+30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while a few regions maintained quotations at premiums of +100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, regional tight supply persisted. Secondary lead smelters in North China, Southwest China and other regions made shipments following the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises successively went on holiday, procurement demand weakened notably, inquiries were also scarce, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: As of April 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 268,700 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery factories' periodic restocking largely concluded last week. Downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was weak, and overall demand remained subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts or halted operations, and spot cargo availability in the market continued to tighten; meanwhile, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, and China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are highly likely to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 29: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals mostly rose, with SHFE copper down 0.29%. SHFE aluminum edged up. SHFE lead rose 0.18%, SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.37%, hitting an intraday high of 152,230 yuan/mt, the highest since January 26. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures were flat at 23,175 yuan/mt, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.45%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.6%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 1.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.08%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.77%, rebar up 0.31%, hot-rolled coil up 0.3%, and stainless steel up 0.55%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.22%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.79%. LME aluminum rose 0.49%, LME lead rose 0.49%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 1.14%. LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold edged up 0.07%, COMEX silver rose 0.65%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.46%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.07%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.13% to 2,252.9 points. As of 11:40 on April 29, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,540 yuan/mt, down 780 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,440 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory rose for two consecutive sessions, mainly due to weak downstream consumption... Macro front China: [31 World Firsts: China's Mineral Resource Inventory Published, with Continued Increase in Exploration Investment Planned for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period] On April 29, the Ministry of Natural Resources released China's latest mineral resource inventory. China ranked first in the world in reserves of 14 minerals, including rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, germanium, indium, fluorite, and graphite. In 2025, China ranked first in the world in the production of 17 minerals, including coal, vanadium, titanium, zinc, rare earths, tungsten, tin, molybdenum, antimony, gallium, indium, gold, and tellurium. Currently, China's mineral production and smelting processing scale ranks firmly first globally. In 2025, the national mining output value was approximately 32.7 trillion yuan, accounting for over 23% of GDP. Resource reserves grew significantly, laying a solid foundation for resource self-sufficiency and controllability. Xiong Zili, Director of the Geological Exploration Management Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources, stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the state will continue to deeply implement a new round of strategic actions for mineral exploration breakthroughs. The Ministry of Natural Resources will further improve the coordinated system for exploration, production, supply, reserves, and sales of strategic mineral resources, and strengthen security risk monitoring and early warning for strategic mineral resources. In terms of key directions, efforts will focus on scarce strategic minerals such as copper, iron, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, while consolidating the resource position of advantageous minerals such as rare earths, tungsten, and tin. In terms of spatial layout, land-sea coordination will be strengthened, with active expansion of survey, exploration, and development space, and increased efforts in basic geological surveys. The goal is to submit a number of mineral sites ready for development by 2030 and form new capacity as soon as possible. The PBOC conducted 25.9 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%. Today, 6 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.66. US Fed watchers did not expect significant changes to the Fed's statement, but they noted there could be some subtle adjustments. For example, officials might revise their description of the labour market to acknowledge that recent data suggested the labour market had stabilized despite less hiring activity. Some officials also wanted the Fed to make clear that the next policy move could be a rate hike—rather than an interest rate cut—as the Iran situation had intensified existing inflationary pressures. To signal this view, officials could slightly adjust the wording of "the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the benchmark rate." Deutsche Bank economists wrote in a report: "A hawkish statement might remove the word 'additional,' as it implies a dovish lean and effectively signals a continuation of a series of interest rate cuts." The US Fed made three interest rate cuts at year-end 2025. Roger Ferguson, former Vice Chairman of the US Fed and economist, stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed would say that the labour market is roughly in a stable state at present. Regarding the inflation mandate, (as inflation remains elevated at 3%), there is still much work to be done." He expected the US Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how all this plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved labor market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year, Switzerland's April ZEW investor confidence index, Eurozone April industrial confidence index, Eurozone April economic sentiment index, Germany's April preliminary CPI month-on-month, US March annualized housing starts, US March durable goods orders month-on-month, US March building permits, and Bank of Canada interest rate decision through April 29. Also noteworthy: Bank of Canada to release its rate decision and monetary policy report; US Senate Banking Committee to vote on advancing Waller's Fed Chairman nomination, with a full Senate confirmation vote to follow if passed; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers to hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both benchmarks declined, with WTI down 0.77% and Brent down 0.47%. Both WTI and Brent continued to pull back in the short term, fully erasing gains since the news that Trump planned to extend the blockade on Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials said Trump had instructed aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade on Iran, a high-risk attempt aimed at striking Iran's fiscal revenue and forcing concessions on the nuclear issue. Officials said that in recent discussions, including a Monday White House Situation Room meeting, Trump decided to continue suppressing Iran's economy and oil exports by blocking shipping to and from Iranian ports. On April 28 local time, satellite imagery showed multiple oil tankers in waters near Iran's Chabahar Port, including 8 very large crude carriers and several small and medium-sized vessels, with a total capacity of approximately 14 million barrels of crude oil. Chabahar Port is located on the Gulf of Oman coast in southeastern Iran. Although the port is located outside the Persian Gulf, it is already close to the blockade line set by the US. Analysts noted that as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly dropped to zero, rerouting some oil exports is one of the measures Iran has taken to minimize disruptions to its oil exports. (Jin10 Data) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, April 29: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched $1,963/mt early in the session, then fluctuated and pulled back during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded with fluctuations but came under pressure again, dipping to a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering somewhat. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. Early in the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt before pulling back under pressure, displaying an overall fluctuating downward trend to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. Prices rebounded slightly near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery manufacturers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventories, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts or halted operations, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten. Ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market featured a prominent pattern of weakness in both supply and demand, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the near term.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,961.5/mt, briefly touched a high of $1,963/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated lower during the Asian session. Entering the European session, prices once rebounded but subsequently came under pressure again, hitting a low of $1,949.5/mt before recovering slightly. Prices weakened again near the close, ultimately settling at $1,951.5/mt, down 0.61%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,735 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, SHFE lead prices moved sideways within 16,720-16,755 yuan/mt, touching a high of 16,755 yuan/mt. Prices then came under pressure and pulled back, showing an overall fluctuate downward trend, hitting a low of 16,700 yuan/mt. A slight rebound occurred near the close, ultimately settling at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt or 0.06%. Open interest stood at 65,269 lots, an increase of 1,770 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: The US prohibited its individuals or entities from paying Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran. Sources: Iran was expected to submit a revised peace proposal soon. Trump: Iran wanted the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible. Iranian military: did not believe the war was over. The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the "OPEC+" mechanism effective May 1. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the current economic situation and economic work. China will implement zero tariffs on all African countries with diplomatic relations starting May 1, 2026. MIIT: the next step will be to carry out the "AI + Software" special action, and promote computing power layout and edge computing construction in an orderly manner. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead continued to consolidate. Suppliers made shipments following the market, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce. Suppliers mainly offered cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters, with premiums adjusted lower from the previous day. Mainstream origins were quoted at premiums of 0-30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Secondary lead side, supply in east China remained tight with significant regional price differences. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and as the holiday approached, a few enterprises had already entered holiday mode. Spot order market transactions were moderate and scattered. Inventory: As of April 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 269,200 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, with the Labour Day holiday approaching and battery makers' earlier restocking demand having been met on a phased basis, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through on just-in-time procurement, with overall consumption performance remaining subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters implemented production cuts and shutdowns, with regional secondary lead spot cargo continuing to tighten; ex-China, lead ingot destocking continued, while China's primary lead ingot social inventory also showed a slight destocking trend. The current lead market exhibited a weak supply-demand pattern on both sides, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

SMM April 29: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 1.15%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.43%, SHFE lead rose 0.18%. SHFE zinc fell 0.4%. SHFE tin fell 0.52%. SHFE nickel rose 1.7%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures fell 1.08%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.8%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 0.06%, stainless steel edged up slightly, rebar fell 0.28%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.59%, coke fell 0.44%. Overnight overseas market metals, LME base metals generally fell. LME copper fell 1.45%. LME aluminum fell 0.95%, LME lead fell 0.61%. LME zinc fell 1.05%. LME tin fell 0.68%. LME nickel rose 1.52%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.79%, COMEX silver fell 2.59%. Overnight SHFE gold fell 1.31%, SHFE silver fell 2.35%. As of 7:07 AM on April 29, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [China to Implement Zero Tariffs on All African Countries with Diplomatic Relations Starting May 1, 2026] The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued an announcement that from May 1, 2026 to April 30, 2028, zero tariffs would be implemented in the form of preferential tax rates for 20 African countries that have established diplomatic relations with China but are not classified as least developed countries. For tariff-quota products, only the in-quota tariff rates would be reduced to zero, while out-of-quota tariff rates would remain unchanged. During the 2-year implementation period, China will continue to promote the negotiation and signing of common development economic partnership agreements with relevant African countries. [MIIT: Next Step Will Be to Launch "AI + Software" Special Action] Ke Jixin, Vice Minister of MIIT, stated at a State Council routine policy briefing on the 28th that MIIT will next promote the extension of producer services toward specialization and the high-end of the value chain, and accelerate innovation and development in the software and information technology services industry. In particular, regarding AI empowerment of the information services industry, MIIT will launch an "AI + Software" special action, accelerate R&D and application of intelligent programming, and foster new business models such as Model-as-a-Service and Agent-as-a-Service. MIIT will further strengthen open-source ecosystem development and promote intelligent upgrades of basic software and industrial software. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.14%, closing at 98.63. This week is most likely the last monetary policy meeting chaired by Powell, and rates are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus was on the policy statement wording and Powell's characterization of war-induced energy inflation at the press conference. (Wall Street Jianzhi) Former US Fed Vice Chairman and economist Roger Ferguson stated, "In terms of the dual mandate, the Fed will say the labour market is roughly in a stable state right now. On the inflation mandate, there is still a lot of work to do (as inflation remains elevated at 3%)." He expected the Fed to say: "We will stay put for now and see how this all plays out." Similarly, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle expected the post-meeting statement to acknowledge improved employment market conditions and rising inflation data, but maintain existing policy guidance unchanged. We expect a majority will still support keeping rates unchanged, with only one dissent, same as in March. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut by June was 2.6%, while the probability of holding rates unchanged was 97.4%. (Jin Shi Data) John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, stated in a report that this week's Fed meeting would provide clues as to which officials lean toward reacting to energy-related inflation and which view it as transitory. He said the meeting's mild tone, with no dot plot and most likely no policy action, "paves the way for a heated June," when Kevin Warsh will likely chair the meeting. Tyner noted that June will bring a new dot plot and more time to assess the Middle East situation and its impact on the economy and inflation. (Jin Shi Data) Other currencies: Eurozone consumers' inflation expectations rose across the board in March, a worrying signal for the ECB as it assesses the ripple effects of the Iran conflict. According to the ECB's monthly consumer survey released Tuesday, prices over the next 12 months were expected to rise 4%, up from 2.5% in February. Three-year inflation expectations rose from 2.5% to 3.0%, slightly below the 3.1% peak reached during the last price surge in October 2022. Five-year inflation expectations edged up from 2.3% to 2.4%, drifting further from the ECB's 2% medium-term inflation target. The ECB is closely monitoring whether elevated energy costs will prompt workers to demand pay raises and lead enterprises to raise selling prices. Second-round inflation effects beyond commodities such as gasoline could trigger rate hikes, although Thursday's policy meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged. (Wall Street Insights) On the macro front: Data to be released today include Australia's March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, Switzerland's April ZEW Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone April Industrial Confidence Index, Eurozone April Economic Sentiment Index, Germany's preliminary April CPI MoM, US March annualized total housing starts, US March durable goods orders MoM, US March total building permits, and the Bank of Canada interest rate decision as of April 29. Also noteworthy: the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; the US Senate Banking Committee will vote on advancing Waller's nomination as Fed Chairman, and if passed, the full Senate will hold a confirmation vote; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their rally, with WTI up 3.37% and Brent up 2.74%. Trump stated on social media that Iran had requested the US to lift its naval blockade on the critical shipping route and reopen it as soon as possible. Reports indicated that Pakistani mediators expected Tehran to submit a revised proposal within days. However, Trump subsequently expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's latest peace proposal, citing that it would delay nuclear negotiations, significantly dampening market expectations for a near-term resolution of the conflict. Iran claimed it could "outlast Trump," suggesting the situation could fall into a prolonged stalemate. Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, and would gradually increase oil production. The announcement briefly caused oil prices to pull back before quickly recovering. (Wall Street Insights) On April 28 local time, the UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told media on April 28 that the UAE chose to exit OPEC at this time primarily considering factors such as current restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and believed the decision would have limited impact on the global oil market. Al Mazrouei told CNN reporters that the UAE's announcement came at the "right time" and would not significantly affect the oil market or prices, as passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, including for the UAE. This decision would help ease pressure on prices. (Jin10 Data) Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, stated that in the short to medium term, given that global inventory has been depleted and reserves need to be rebuilt, the market should be able to absorb the increased production from the UAE. However, over time, this exit raised a broader strategic question: if other producing countries began to prioritize market share over quota discipline, OPEC's ability to manage an orderly market through coordinated supply adjustments could face increasing scrutiny. HSBC said in a research note on Tuesday that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ would have a relatively small short-term impact on the oil market, but over time could undermine the organization's supply discipline and price management capability. HSBC expected little change in global oil supply in the near term, as crude oil exports from the Gulf region had remained restricted since the end of February. During the period of constrained shipping routes, the UAE had limited room to increase production. The Abu Dhabi crude oil pipeline had a daily transport capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels and was most likely already operating at full capacity. Once the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane resumed navigation, the UAE would no longer be bound by OPEC+ production quotas and could gradually increase production. The bank estimated that Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) daily production is expected to rise to over 4.5 million barrels, while the OPEC+ quota during May 2026 was approximately 3.4 million barrels per day. HSBC said any supply increments are expected to be released in phases over 12 to 18 months, rather than immediately.

SMM News, April 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals fell nearly across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.6%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.18%, SHFE zinc fell 2.46%, SHFE tin fell 1.88%, and SHFE nickel rose 0.58%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.17%, and the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.69%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.98%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.41%. The most-traded polysilicon futures continued the downtrend from the previous three trading days, falling 4.11%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore fell 1.62%, rebar fell 0.88%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.97%, and stainless steel rose 1.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.3%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.52%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged up 0.02%. LME aluminum fell 0.25%, LME lead fell 0.31%, and LME zinc fell 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.32%. LME nickel rose 0.65%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 0.1% and COMEX silver fell 0.45%. Domestic market precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.89%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.65%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.27%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.95%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 0.47% to 2,208.1 points. As of 11:39 on April 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 230 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,320 yuan/mt, down 765 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,215 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Today, Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and decreased warehouse withdrawals... Macro front China: [SASAC: Continue to push efforts in key areas such as NEVs and artificial intelligence, driving emerging industries to develop with greater momentum] A signed article by the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council published in Study and Research stated that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts must focus on opening up a "second curve" of growth, adopting tailored and coordinated policies for different enterprises, promoting smooth and strong succession of old and new growth drivers, accelerating the development of a batch of emerging pillar industries that lead future competition, and better supporting the construction of a modern industrial system with advanced manufacturing as its backbone. The article proposed coordinating the transformation of traditional industries with the development of emerging industries. On one hand, adhering to the direction of intelligentization, green development, and integration, deepening and expanding the "AI+" initiative, stepping up efforts in technological upgrading and equipment renewal, vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and further accelerating the transformation of traditional industries. On the other hand, following the approach of "leading a batch, catching up with a batch, and cultivating a batch," based on enterprise resource endowments and industrial foundations, adhering to differentiated layouts, further consolidating advantages in new energy, aerospace and other industries, continuing to push forward in key areas such as NEVs, artificial intelligence, and new materials, and proactively cultivating frontier tracks such as quantum information, nuclear fusion, and low-altitude economy, driving emerging industries to build stronger momentum. (Jin10 Data) [Guangdong: Increasing Support for Trade-in of Bulk Durable Consumer Goods Such as Automobiles and Home Appliances] The Outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of Guangdong Province was officially released. It mentioned the bulk consumption upgrade initiative. Promoting the "fiscal subsidies + enterprise discounts + financial empowerment" model, increasing support for trade-in of bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles and home appliances, and continuing to implement consumption-boosting policies such as "Guangdong Premium Shopping." Implementing automobile replacement and retirement and renewal policies, encouraging eligible cities to issue subsidies for new car purchases. Expanding after-market consumption such as automobile modification and leasing. Accelerating the construction of recycling systems for automobiles, electronic products, home appliances and furniture. Actively, prudently, and orderly advancing urban village renovation under new models, expanding the supply of affordable housing, and better meeting housing consumption demand. The PBOC conducted 43.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%. 5 billion yuan in reverse repo operations matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 98.5. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) stated that recent US tariff policy adjustments could increase the federal budget deficit by $1.1 trillion over ten years, though the exact figure remained uncertain. CBO Director Swagel stated that the Supreme Court's ruling invalidating Trump's use of emergency economic powers to impose tariffs on his own would increase the fiscal deficit by $2 trillion over ten years, while other trade measures Trump had taken to offset this loss totaled $800 billion to $900 billion (in revenue). Swagel stated: "Because the Supreme Court eliminated some tariffs and the government reimposed some, the fiscal deficit over ten years would be approximately $1.1 trillion higher."The government has significant power to impose new tariffs and adjust them, so it is difficult to determine the exact deficit amount before the entire process is concluded." Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on April 27 local time that with persistent inflationary pressures coupled with an economic slowdown, policymakers must remain cautious. Dalio said on Monday, "We are undoubtedly in a period of stagflation," warning that the US economy had fallen into a stagflationary environment. He noted that if Kevin Warsh, who is about to take over as Fed Chairman, chose to cut interest rates, it would be a policy mistake. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged in April was 100%. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point interest rate cut by June was 4.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95.5%. (Jin10 Data) On the data front: Data to be released today include the US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 11, the US February FHFA House Price Index MoM, the US February S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted Home Price Index YoY, the US April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, the US April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Bank of Japan target rate as of April 28. Also worth watching: Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo will hold a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. On other currencies: [BOJ Kept Rates Unchanged as Expected, Three Members Advocated for a Rate Hike] The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, but three of the nine-member policy board proposed a rate hike, signaling concerns over inflationary pressures triggered by Middle East conflicts. The 6-to-3 vote also marked the largest split since Ueda Kazuo became governor. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the BOJ decided to keep the short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, in line with broad market expectations. Board members Takada Hajime, Tamura Naoki, and Nakagawa Junko dissented, advocating for raising the rate to 1.0%. Nakagawa Junko argued that despite ongoing uncertainty over the Middle East situation, price risks were tilted to the upside under accommodative financial conditions given economic developments. Tamura Naoki argued that given price risks were significantly tilted to the upside, the BOJ should set the policy rate as close to the neutral rate as possible. Takada Hajime argued that Japan's price stability target had essentially been achieved, and price risks had clearly tilted to the upside due to second-round effects of price increases triggered by developments outside China. BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo is expected to brief the media on the decision later. (Jin10 Data APP) Hirofumi Suzuki, chief FX strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, said that three votes in favor of a rate hike was somewhat surprising, and that policy board member Nakagawa Junko also switched to supporting a rate hike. In Japan, the impact of the Middle East shock has begun to show in consumer confidence, which is concerning in itself, and this impact is expected to further transmit to the price side. Meanwhile, the yen remains under depreciation pressure in financial markets. Overall, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to maintain its rate-hike inclination. If easing of Middle East tensions can be confirmed, the bank is expected to raise rates further around June-July. (Jin10 Data) Crude oil: As of 11:39, oil prices in both markets rose, with WTI up 1.02% and Brent up 0.8%. The US-Iran deadlock remained unresolved, and market sentiment was generally cautious. According to the Wall Street Journal, as the US Navy enforced a blockade and negotiations remained deadlocked, Iran was scrambling to find new oil storage methods to avoid devastating production shutdowns. As oil piled up domestically, Iran was reactivating abandoned sites known as "junk storage," using makeshift containers, and attempting to continue exports by rail. These unconventional measures aimed to delay an infrastructure crisis and undermine US leverage in the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Huatai Securities noted in a research report that, considering hindered transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and limited alternative routes, combined with potentially months-long production resumptions at shut-in Middle East oil fields and a round of strategic restocking of crude oil, refined products, and other energy and chemical products globally after the strait reopens, the medium-term oil price center is expected to stay high, maintaining the 2026 Brent crude oil average price forecast at $90/barrel. (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,963/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead moved sideways within the range of $1,959.5-1,966.5/mt, touching a high of $1,966.5/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead prices turned to fluctuate downward, dipping to a low of $1,947/mt. Supported by LME lead destocking, LME lead rebounded and eventually closed at $1,963.5/mt, up 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,740 yuan/mt. It briefly fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of 16,700 yuan/mt, then rebounded and eventually closed at a high of 16,785 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt or 0.42%. Its open interest reached 64,643 lots, an increase of 439 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front: White House: Trump discussed Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal with senior aides. US media: Trump was skeptical of Iran's proposal but did not outright reject it. Trump: maintained contact with both Putin and Zelensky. Hezbollah leader: firmly rejected direct negotiations with Israel. Russian President Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. OpenAI and Microsoft reached a "ceasefire agreement." NBS: From January to March, total profits of China's above-scale industrial enterprises reached 1.696 trillion yuan, up 15.5% YoY. NDRC: prohibited foreign acquisition of the Manus project and demanded the transaction be revoked. National Energy Administration: will coordinate with the NDRC to scientifically plan hydrogen energy industry development goals and tasks for the 15th Five-Year Plan period. China National Space Administration: made forward-looking arrangements for new industries such as space computing power and space manufacturing. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead held up well. On the spot side, warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were scarce, and some suppliers intended to ship to delivery warehouses. Cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters were also quoted firmly, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with most shipments made at premiums. On the secondary lead side, smelter maintenance increased, supply in east China was tight, and some smelters shipped at premiums. Regional price spreads widened, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 80 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. As the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises had limited just-in-time procurement needs, inquiries were also few, and spot order market trading was sluggish. Inventory: As of April 27, LME lead inventory decreased by 325 mt to 269,700 mt. SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: On the consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises showed weak follow-through in just-in-time procurement. Supply side, affected by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts and production suspension, and regional secondary lead spot cargo continued to tighten; meanwhile, primary lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. The current market presented a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.