SMM, July 31: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of drifting higher. On Monday, LME copper prices opened at $13,637.5/mt and then drifted higher. Although copper prices edged up, the overall payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap did not pull back significantly. In terms of prices, the transaction payable rate for bare bright copper stayed within the 98.5%-99% range. For No.1 and No.2 copper, impacted by the concentrated maintenance period at some smelters, demand side slowed slightly, and the quoted payable indicators edged down by an average of about 0.2 percentage points. On the transaction side, the stronger copper prices boosted ex-China suppliers' willingness to sell to some extent. Meanwhile, as the ex-China recycling off-season gradually ended, the tight circulation of copper scrap in the market eased slightly from before. However, against the backdrop of high copper prices and the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders still performed relatively flat, with purchases remaining just-in-time procurement, and overall buying interest limited. Notably, spot premiums for copper cathode stayed high recently, coupled with tight spot supply of copper cathode, which fueled relatively strong demand for bare bright copper, a direct substitute for copper cathode. Consequently, the payable rate for bare bright copper did not pull back with rising copper prices but instead retained some upside support. Overall, transactions in the ex-China copper scrap market improved WoW, but the market atmosphere remained sluggish. Looking ahead to next week, with copper prices staying high and downstream orders in the consumption off-season remaining weak, downstream enterprises are expected to maintain cautious procurement sentiment, and demand side is unlikely to see a significant volume increase. In terms of payable rates, tight supply will continue to support prices, but demand, dominated by just-in-time procurement, will cap further upside room. The payable rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to remain stable overall in the short term.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in June 2026.......

SMM, July 24: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of retreat after rapid rise. LME copper opened Monday at $13,524/mt, then quickly climbed to near $13,934/mt before pulling back. Influenced by the rapid mid-week rise in copper prices, the payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap experienced a slight correction; however, as copper prices pulled back on Friday, the payable indicator rebounded to levels similar to last week. In terms of prices, mainstream quotations for ex-China bare bright copper remained around 99%, with No. 1 copper quoted in the 97%-98% range and No. 2 copper floating mostly within a 96%-98.5% quotation range due to variations in cargo quality and gold and silver content. Regarding transactions, the mid-week surge in copper prices boosted suppliers’ willingness to sell to some extent, but downstream procurement sentiment remained weak, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, the tight supply situation of ex-China copper scrap persisted, with limited available cargo in the market, keeping suppliers’ sentiment to hold prices firm relatively strong. In addition, the recent rise in spot premiums for copper cathode provided some support for the discount rate of copper scrap, and in some markets, copper prices and discount rates even rose simultaneously. Overall, with high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders performed averagely, buyer procurement enthusiasm was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. The current ex-China copper scrap market continues to show a weak supply-demand dynamic, with tight supply on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side, keeping overall market activity limited. Looking ahead to next week, with downstream orders yet to show significant improvement and copper prices staying high, the demand side is expected to remain dominated by just-in-time procurement, making a significant increase in transaction volumes difficult. Furthermore, supported jointly by tight supply of ex-China copper scrap and elevated spot premiums for copper cathode, the discount rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to stay high. Overall, market trading next week will continue to be sluggish, while the discount rate will continue to consolidate at highs.

[SMM Analysis: Copper Prices Remain Elevated as Global Copper Scrap Payabilities Rise Before Stabilizing] Despite elevated copper prices, overseas copper scrap payabilities did not follow the traditional pattern of “higher copper prices leading to lower payabilities.”Millberry remained high at 98.5-99%. No. 1 copper scrap payabilities were mainly quoted at around 98%, while No. 2 copper scrap payabilities ranged from approximately 96% to 98.5%

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in June 2026, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, up 10.43% MoM and up 15.11% YoY. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports reached 1.2415 million mt in physical content, up 8.39% YoY.

SMM, July 17: LME copper prices moved sideways overall this week. LME copper opened at $13,459/mt on Monday, edged up afterward, but pulled back toward the end of the week. Overall fluctuations were relatively limited. As copper prices showed no clear directional shift, quotation ratios for ex-China copper scrap remained stable this week without significant adjustments. Mainstream quotations for bare bright copper stayed within the 98.5%-99% range, quotations for No.1 copper mostly hovered around 98%, while those for No.2 copper fluctuated within the 96%-98.5% range, influenced by differences in scrap quality and gold and silver content. In the market, although copper prices edged up this week, ex-China suppliers still held prices firm. Meanwhile, the impact of the traditional consumption off-season persisted, with downstream orders performing modestly, buyers showing limited purchasing motivation, and trading sentiment remaining somewhat sluggish. Overall, the current ex-China copper scrap market continued its supply-demand weakness: available supplies were tight on the supply side, while the demand side remained cautious due to the off-season and high copper prices, leading to low overall market activity. Looking ahead to next week, the potential for significant demand-side improvement in the short term is limited due to the traditional off-season. Meanwhile, the tight supply pattern has not eased notably, so the supply-demand weakness is expected to persist. Regarding ratios, given the tight supply of ex-China copper scrap and some rigid demand support downstream, quotation ratios are not expected to see a significant pullback and may stay high in the short term.

SMM reported on July 3: LME copper prices moved sideways this week. On Monday, LME copper opened at $13,317/mt before fluctuating around the $13,100-$13,500/mt range. Affected by the limited price fluctuations, the conversion rates of ex-China copper scrap transactions remained largely unchanged overall. Mainstream quotations for bare bright copper ex-China held around 98.5%-99%, while No.1 copper semis quotations were mostly concentrated in the 97%-98% range, and No.2 copper semis quotations varied from 95% to 98.5% depending on material quality and gold/silver content. From the supply-demand fundamentals, the copper scrap market continued to show weak supply and demand. Supply side, the outflow of secondary copper declined further, with most enterprises reporting a marked tightening of available material in the market. In terms of recent trade volume changes, market trading activity also pulled back significantly over the past month. Demand side, in addition to the seasonal off-season drag, some enterprises held a bearish view on the copper price outlook, expecting the US dollar to strengthen further, and maintained a cautious procurement pace, mostly preferring to wait for a pullback in copper prices before restocking. As a result, overall purchasing sentiment remained weak this week, and the trading atmosphere stayed sluggish. Looking ahead to next week, if Middle East tensions ease further and market concerns about US Fed rate hikes cool down, copper prices could see a phased rebound. In that scenario, the price rise is expected to boost some suppliers' willingness to sell. However, given that overall ex-China copper scrap supply is still tight, the related conversion rates are expected to stay high, and even if copper prices rise, the rates are unlikely to pull back significantly.

[SMM Analysis] On June 30, the US Department of Commerce will reach the key report period for the copper Section 232 investigation. Will copper cathode tariffs proceed as planned? How will across-the-board tariffs, targeted tariffs, or deferred exemptions affect the COMEX-LME price spread, US spot premiums, global copper trade flows, and regional supply landscapes?

This week, LME copper prices retreated from highs, drifting lower after hitting a high at Monday’s open. Mid-week, prices briefly fell to a low of $12,988/mt, with a weekly decline of about 3.3%. The pullback in copper prices led to a slight spike in payable indicators, pushing up the overall discount range by about 0.2%. By specific grade, bare bright copper saw its main transaction coefficient remain high at 98.5%–99%, while No.1 copper semis’ transaction range was concentrated at 97%–98%. In contrast, quotes for No.2 copper semis showed clear divergence: with precious metal prices staying high, smelters’ acceptance of No.2 copper semis with high gold and silver content rose significantly, with quotes reaching 97.5%–98%, even exceeding those for No.1 copper semis in a price inversion. Such high-gold-and-silver-content copper semis mainly originate from the Americas, so quotes for Americas-origin No.2 copper semis were notably higher than from other regions. Meanwhile, No.2 copper semis from Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, generally low in gold and silver content, saw relatively pressured quotes, with transaction ranges mostly concentrated at 95%–96%. However, constrained by the current overall supply-demand weakness, actual market transactions this week were relatively sluggish. On one hand, payable indicators were already at historical highs, limiting room for further upside. On the other, although copper prices pulled back and enterprises’ tolerance for high prices gradually improved, the absolutely elevated copper prices still significantly suppressed purchasing sentiment. In addition, macro and seasonal factors further dragged on major Asian consumer markets: Japan, one of the key consumers, was about to face its annual settlement window on June 30, and some enterprises had already stopped purchasing in advance. At the same time, Japanese scrapyards were engaged in Q3 quarterly supply negotiations with downstream consumers, causing them to generally slow down their current purchasing pace. Compounding this, the yen and won exchange rates against the US dollar remained at low levels, driving up local enterprises’ ex-China procurement costs and prompting traders in both regions to adopt a generally cautious stance toward overseas purchases. Under the combined weight of falling copper prices and tight overall market supply, ex-China scrapyards currently hold a strong sentiment of holding back from selling, and the near-term market stalemate is expected to continue into next week.

In May 2026, China imported 191,000 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap, down 9.78% MoM but up 3.14% YoY.