This week (August 10-August 13), Yangshan copper premium warrant transaction weekly average price range was $91-104/mt (QP August, average $98/mt); B/L transaction weekly average price range was $87-99/mt (QP September, average $93/mt); EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $57-69/mt (QP September, average $63/mt). As of August 13, the exchange-rate-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper versus the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.128, with an import loss of around 1,004.08 yuan/mt, which narrowed by about 381 yuan/mt WoW. As of Thursday, the LME copper August-date backwardation structure widened from the same period last week, with the carry spread between August and September dates at -$117.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER registered copper B/L are around $85-95/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $100-105/mt; mainstream offers for EQ copper B/L are around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums trended weaker, as the SHFE/LME price ratio remained unfavorable, LME nearby contracts showed a steep backwardation structure, and rising copper prices dampened consumption, leaving downstream buying sentiment weak. However, supplier offers had not yet shown a clear retreat, and the divergence between buyers and sellers in the market gradually widened. In addition, according to SMM, the opening of the copper cathode export window in this round was mainly driven by the substantial backwardation structure in nearby LME contracts. Changes in SHFE and LME prices and term structures created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, with export volume currently planned at about 20,000 mt. However, as the August contract approached delivery, copper cathode exports mainly flowed into China bonded zones. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (August 13), copper inventories in China bonded zones rose by about 4,100 mt WoW from the previous period (August 6) to 35,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventories rose by 4,200 mt WoW to 31,100 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventories fell by 100 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The main reasons for the increase in bonded zone inventories were: 1. The recent opening of the export window created export arbitrage conditions for some copper cathode, causing cargoes to concentrate in bonded zones; 2. Previously, cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses arrived at ports in succession, further lifting inventory levels. Looking ahead, the market will wrestle with whether the SHFE/LME price ratio can recover and with the supply-demand pattern. On the supply side, supply will be shaped by short-term import arrivals and higher exports, while medium- and long-term supply will remain constrained by the US siphoning effect. On the demand side, weak consumption has left downstream buyers with low psychological expectations for transaction prices. Traders are expected to maintain a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers set to grind on. In addition, going forward, as the SHFE and LME term structures are further adjusted, the copper cathode export window and cargo flow directions will still need to be continuously monitored.

This week (Aug. 3 – Aug. 7), the weekly average warrant transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $101–$112/mt, QP August, with an average of $106/mt; the weekly average B/L transaction price range was $96–$107/mt, QP September, with an average of $102/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L prices were $64–$73/mt, QP September, with an average of $69/mt. As of Aug. 7, the ex-exchange rate SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract against LME copper was 1.1247, with an import loss of around 1,385.43 yuan/mt, expanding by about 857 yuan/mt WoW. As of Friday, the backwardation structure for the August LME copper date widened WoW, with the carry spread between the August and September dates at −$61.53/mt. Currently, mainstream offer prices for ER registered copper B/L have dropped to double-digit levels; mainstream warrant offer prices for registered copper were near $100/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums pulled back from high levels, mainly because the SHFE/LME price ratio continued to deteriorate, compounded by the widening backwardation structure of nearby LME contracts, which increased suppliers' willingness to offer cargo. Meanwhile, as copper prices surged, downstream consumption demand was poor. Additionally, high premiums in the domestic market previously attracted cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which gradually arrived in China, causing temporary congestion at Shanghai Port. Together with some export cargo pressuring prices, market spot premiums weakened. According to SMM data, China's bonded zone copper inventories as of Thursday this week (Aug. 6) decreased by about 6,000 mt WoW from the previous period (Jul. 30) to 31,100 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory decreased by 6,500 mt WoW to 26,900 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory increased by 500 mt WoW to 4,200 mt. The weekly bonded zone inventory decline was mainly because of reports that cargo ships were heading to the US. Additionally, the slight opening of the export window led to small-scale exports by some smelters to the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the siphoning effect from North America continues, so the logic of overall supply constraints in the market remains. However, with the SHFE/LME price ratio significantly inverted, consumption demand suppressed by high copper prices, and expectations of concentrated cargo arrivals at ports, traders' psychological price expectations for spot cargo are rapidly declining, and imported copper premiums are expected to see a temporary pullback. Additionally, with the export window slightly open, smelters have export expectations. According to SMM, export volumes in the first week of August up to now have been relatively limited, and future export volumes need continued monitoring.

SMM, August 7: LME copper prices continued to rise this week. LME copper opened on Monday at $13,850/mt before moving steadily higher, posting a WoW gain of 2.8% to return to a historically high range. Although copper prices were already elevated, payable indicators for copper scrap outside China still showed considerable resilience. Currently, available copper scrap inventories in major consuming regions—including China, Japan, South Korea and India—are generally low, and supply from outside China remains tight, lending firm support to copper scrap prices. In terms of pricing, the quote indicator for bare bright copper outside China largely held at 98.5%–99%, No.1 copper around 97%–98%, and No.2 copper concentrated in the 94%–96% range. On the transaction side, high copper prices boosted suppliers' willingness to sell outside China, but with spot cargoes in short supply, suppliers still showed a strong tendency to hold prices firm. Downstream, against a backdrop of historically high copper prices, enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement to meet production needs, with limited willingness to actively add inventory. Overall, market transactions improved somewhat WoW, but volume growth remained constrained by both high prices and tight supply. At the same time, the impact of tight copper ore supply is gradually spilling over into the secondary resource market. Tight supply of concentrates has further heightened market attention and buying demand for copper scrap, while copper scrap itself has limited supply elasticity and is unlikely to expand rapidly in the short term. With both ore and secondary supply tightening in tandem, payable indicators for copper scrap outside China are receiving relatively firm support. Looking ahead to next week, with copper scrap supply outside China expected to stay tight and social inventory in major consuming regions holding at low levels, payable indicators for copper scrap outside China are likely to stay high in the near term. If copper prices continue to consolidate at highs, suppliers' willingness to sell may strengthen further, but with downstream procurement dominated by just-in-time demand, the improvement in overall transaction volumes is expected to remain relatively limited.

On the macro front , this week copper prices drifted higher overall. Negotiations between the U.S., Iran, and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz made progress, and market expectations for a near-term reopening of the strait heightened. International oil prices pulled back accordingly, easing inflation worries from energy prices. Meanwhile, the U.S. July ADP employment figure came in below market expectations, and the cooling labour market also dampened market expectations for multiple US Fed rate hikes this year. Although some Fed officials still sent hawkish signals and the strait reopening arrangements are not yet fully clear, their pressure on copper prices was relatively limited. Additionally, expectations that the U.S. may impose tariffs on imported copper continued to attract copper cathode flows to the U.S., driving inventory accumulation at COMEX. Meanwhile, LME inventories and deliverable stocks kept declining, creating a clear regional mismatch of exchange inventories. U.S. tariff premiums and tightening supply outside the U.S. combined to push LME copper prices higher. As of 11:00 Beijing time on August 7, 2026, LME copper hit a low of $13,769/mt this week before shooting up to a high of $14,369/mt, up $600/mt from the low, a gain of about 4.36%. The most-traded SHFE copper contract hit a low of 105,140 yuan/mt, then rebounded to 108,470 yuan/mt, up 3,330 yuan/mt from the low, a gain of about 3.17%. Fundamentals side , as of August 6, SMM copper inventories across major regions in China increased by 7,300 mt WoW to 119,200 mt, extending the accumulation trend. On the supply side, arrivals of both domestic copper and imported copper cathode increased recently, with imported materials such as Peruvian large plates, ESOX, and Myanmar copper gradually circulating in the market. Combined with higher copper prices boosting suppliers’ willingness to sell, spot supply that was previously tight gradually eased. On the demand side, end-user orders were generally weak amid the traditional consumption off-season, and high copper prices further suppressed downstream purchase willingness. Market transactions were sluggish, and purchases remained mainly need-based. However, hi-quality copper and registered SX-EW copper supplies were relatively limited, and transactions improved for some low-priced cargoes, still providing some support to spot premiums. Looking ahead to next week , the market will continue to watch whether the U.S.-Iran deal materializes, the Strait of Hormuz reopening arrangements, and Fed officials’ comments on the future rate path. If expectations for the strait's reopening persist, oil prices and inflation worries will cool further, and together with a slowing U.S. labour market, macro sentiment may still support copper prices. Should negotiations falter again, geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations could increase volatility in the futures market. In addition, watch out for a resurgence of resource protectionist policies outside China, which could further disrupt global copper flows. Fundamentals side, increasing domestic and imported copper supply will continue to ease domestic spot supply tightness, but high copper prices, inventory accumulation, and the off-season will limit downstream restocking, and SHFE copper spot premiums still face downward pressure. Next week, copper prices are expected to consolidate at highs with an upward bias, with LME copper likely to outperform SHFE copper, but SHFE copper’s upside room will still be constrained by weak domestic demand.

SMM, July 31: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of drifting higher. On Monday, LME copper prices opened at $13,637.5/mt and then drifted higher. Although copper prices edged up, the overall payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap did not pull back significantly. In terms of prices, the transaction payable rate for bare bright copper stayed within the 98.5%-99% range. For No.1 and No.2 copper, impacted by the concentrated maintenance period at some smelters, demand side slowed slightly, and the quoted payable indicators edged down by an average of about 0.2 percentage points. On the transaction side, the stronger copper prices boosted ex-China suppliers' willingness to sell to some extent. Meanwhile, as the ex-China recycling off-season gradually ended, the tight circulation of copper scrap in the market eased slightly from before. However, against the backdrop of high copper prices and the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders still performed relatively flat, with purchases remaining just-in-time procurement, and overall buying interest limited. Notably, spot premiums for copper cathode stayed high recently, coupled with tight spot supply of copper cathode, which fueled relatively strong demand for bare bright copper, a direct substitute for copper cathode. Consequently, the payable rate for bare bright copper did not pull back with rising copper prices but instead retained some upside support. Overall, transactions in the ex-China copper scrap market improved WoW, but the market atmosphere remained sluggish. Looking ahead to next week, with copper prices staying high and downstream orders in the consumption off-season remaining weak, downstream enterprises are expected to maintain cautious procurement sentiment, and demand side is unlikely to see a significant volume increase. In terms of payable rates, tight supply will continue to support prices, but demand, dominated by just-in-time procurement, will cap further upside room. The payable rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to remain stable overall in the short term.

This week (July 27 – July 30), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premiums B/L transactions was $104–$110/mt, QP August, with an average price of $107/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $108–$117/mt, QP August, with an average price of $112/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was $70–$80/mt, QP August, with an average price of $75/mt. As of July 30, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2608 contract after excluding exchange rates was 1.1345, with an import loss of approximately 528 yuan/mt, which was a narrowing of roughly 107 yuan/mt from the previous week. As of Thursday, the LME copper backwardation structure for the August date widened WoW, with the spread between the August date and the September date at -$12.94/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for ER copper B/L are around $115–$120/mt; mainstream offers for registered copper warrants are around $120–$125/mt; mainstream offers for CIF B/L EQ copper are around $75–$85/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums maintained a relatively stable trend. As expectations of tight available spot supply began to weaken, premiums lacked further upward momentum. However, influenced by the persistently unfavorable SHFE/LME price ratio, mediocre downstream consumption demand, and a widened backwardation structure in near-term LME contracts, seller offers increased, yet downstream buyers remained cautious at high prices and stayed on the sidelines. Both parties held divergent positions, leading to a further stalemate throughout the week, resulting in sluggish actual transactions. According to SMM, as of Thursday this week (July 30), China's bonded zone copper inventories decreased by approximately 100 mt MoM from the previous period (July 23) to 37,100 mt. Among these, Shanghai bonded inventories increased by 100 mt MoM to 33,400 mt, and Guangdong bonded inventories decreased by 200 mt MoM to 3,700 mt. Bonded zone inventory showed minimal destocking changes, with both warehouse inflows and warehouse withdrawals remaining low during the week. Looking ahead, overall market supply will remain constrained due to the sustained siphoning effect from North America. However, the market situation is expected to tighten further entering August. Cargoes previously canceled from LME Asian warehouses and shipped to China will arrive at ports in batches gradually during August. If consumption fails to show a significant improvement, the import SHFE/LME price ratio will struggle to rebound, and short-term supply growth could impact spot premiums.

The average warrant price on July 29 remained flat from the previous trading day, reported at $112/mt (price range of $108-116/mt); the average B/L price stayed unchanged from the previous trading day, reported at $107/mt (price range of $104-110/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, reported at $75/mt (price range of $70-80/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving in August. Approaching month-end, although the SHFE/LME copper price ratio improved somewhat today, the market's wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and activity remained low. Buyers and sellers differed on quotations, resulting in few actual spot transactions. Today, it was heard that registered B/Ls for arrival in early August were offered at $120/mt, registered warrants were offered at $120/mt, and mainstream quotations for EQ copper arriving from August to early September were $75-85/mt.

According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported 210,900 mt in physical content of copper scrap and shredded copper scrap in June 2026.......

SMM, July 24: This week, LME copper prices showed an overall trend of retreat after rapid rise. LME copper opened Monday at $13,524/mt, then quickly climbed to near $13,934/mt before pulling back. Influenced by the rapid mid-week rise in copper prices, the payable indicator for ex-China copper scrap experienced a slight correction; however, as copper prices pulled back on Friday, the payable indicator rebounded to levels similar to last week. In terms of prices, mainstream quotations for ex-China bare bright copper remained around 99%, with No. 1 copper quoted in the 97%-98% range and No. 2 copper floating mostly within a 96%-98.5% quotation range due to variations in cargo quality and gold and silver content. Regarding transactions, the mid-week surge in copper prices boosted suppliers’ willingness to sell to some extent, but downstream procurement sentiment remained weak, with the market still dominated by just-in-time procurement. Meanwhile, the tight supply situation of ex-China copper scrap persisted, with limited available cargo in the market, keeping suppliers’ sentiment to hold prices firm relatively strong. In addition, the recent rise in spot premiums for copper cathode provided some support for the discount rate of copper scrap, and in some markets, copper prices and discount rates even rose simultaneously. Overall, with high copper prices combined with the traditional consumption off-season, downstream orders performed averagely, buyer procurement enthusiasm was insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. The current ex-China copper scrap market continues to show a weak supply-demand dynamic, with tight supply on the supply side and cautious procurement on the demand side, keeping overall market activity limited. Looking ahead to next week, with downstream orders yet to show significant improvement and copper prices staying high, the demand side is expected to remain dominated by just-in-time procurement, making a significant increase in transaction volumes difficult. Furthermore, supported jointly by tight supply of ex-China copper scrap and elevated spot premiums for copper cathode, the discount rate for ex-China copper scrap is expected to stay high. Overall, market trading next week will continue to be sluggish, while the discount rate will continue to consolidate at highs.

Over the week of July 20-23, the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions stood at $104-111/mt, QP August, averaging $108/mt; warrant transactions averaged $105-115/mt, QP August, averaging $110/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $69-78/mt, QP August, averaging $73/mt. As of July 23, the SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE 2608 contract after excluding exchange rate was 1.1334, with an import loss of around 635.6 yuan/mt, widening by about 261 yuan/mt from the same period last week. As of Thursday, the LME copper August date shifted to a backwardation structure, with a carry spread of -$4.14/mt between the August and September dates. Currently, mainstream offers for pyrometallurgy-registered copper B/L are around $110-120/mt, while CIF B/L EQ copper mainstream offers are around $75-90/mt. Yangshan copper premiums showed a retreat-after-rapid-rise trend this week. At the start of the week, the market continued to price in the shortage of available supply. As the COMEX-LME price spread widened again, the North American siphoning effect strengthened, COMEX-registered brands were scarce, China's social inventory fell to a low level, and LME nearby contracts shifted to backwardation, sellers' offers kept surging. However, due to persistently unfavorable price ratios, offers pulled back towards the end of the week. Overall, the market grappled with tight supply and sluggish demand, resulting in low physical trading activity amid weak supply-demand conditions. According to SMM, as of Thursday, July 23, China's bonded zone copper inventory fell by 1,700 mt WoW from July 16 to 37,200 mt. Specifically, Shanghai bonded inventory fell by 1,500 mt WoW to 33,300 mt, while Guangdong bonded inventory fell by 200 mt WoW to 3,900 mt. The bonded zone inventory shifted from destocking to inventory buildup, mainly because some suppliers were optimistic about future premiums and price ratios, showing low willingness to sell, which reduced bonded zone warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead, with US tariffs still pending and the siphoning effect persisting, the market is still trading the tight supply narrative. However, it is worth noting that LME cancelled warrants have increased continuously recently, with the ratio rising above 60%, mainly from US and Asian warehouses. According to SMM, some supply is being shipped to China and will arrive in a first round of concentrated arrivals in late July. Attention should be paid to this supply replenishment, which, combined with persistently inverted price ratios and softening downstream demand, could push the premium center to pull back.