SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,724.5/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated upward to a high of $12,829.5/mt, after which the center of copper prices shifted straight downward to a low of $12,721/mt. It then fluctuated upward in a pullback and finally closed at $12,780/mt, down 1.07%. Trading volume reached 17,000 lots, and open interest stood at 293,000 lots, down 8,255 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 99,120 yuan/mt. In early trading, it rose to 99,530 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward all the way to a low of 98,900 yuan/mt. Afterwards, the center of copper prices moved upward and finally closed at 99,140 yuan/mt, down 0.92%. Trading volume reached 27,700 lots, and open interest stood at 177,000 lots, down 1,993 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to longs reducing positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 87,780 yuan/mt. After the opening, it hovered at highs and then touched a high of 87,890 yuan/mt. By the close of the morning trading session, its center had fallen to 84,000, after which it returned to its normal trading range. It finally consolidated sideways to close at 87,050 yuan/mt, down 1.62. Open interest stood at 5,432 lots, down 167 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 5,024 lots, up 1,566 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, Trump said he was not yet ready to end the conflict immediately, but said he would withdraw before long; Iran’s supreme leader firmly rejected the proposal for peace talks, insisting on retaliation and compensation. Meanwhile, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the head of the Basij militia were confirmed dead, and Iran was urgently filling candidates for key positions. Amid the combined impact of escalating geopolitical tensions and demand concerns triggered by elevated LME inventory, copper prices were overall under pressure and bearish. Fundamentals side, arrivals of both imported and domestic cargo remained stable, and overall supply was ample. Demand side, downstream purchase willingness rebounded as copper prices pulled back. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 98,590 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract at 87,050 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 98,367 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 223 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, widening from the previous day.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,751/mt and dipped to $12,743/mt at the start of the session. Thereafter, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher and, near the close, touched a high of $12,940/mt, before finally closing at $12,918.5/mt, up 1.44. Trading volume reached 19,700 lots, and open interest stood at 302,000 lots, down 5,166 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,020 yuan/mt and hit a low of 99,820 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It then fluctuated upward to 100,420 yuan/mt, followed by wide swings, and finally closed at 100,190 yuan/mt, up 0.58. Trading volume reached 274,000 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, down 3,315 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

News dated March 18, 2026: Today, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $25/mt (price range: $19-31/mt), with quotations referenced to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio premium showed no significant fluctuations, and market transactions remained active. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was quoted at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L for late March and early April was offered at $35, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. Ordinary ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Intraday trading in the spot market improved somewhat from yesterday. Suppliers still showed willingness to hold prices firm, but some suppliers’ sell-offs temporarily weighed on the market, causing spot premiums to decline somewhat in the second trading session. Coupled with the narrowing Contango price spread between nearby futures contracts, suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses weakened somewhat, and spot premiums remained under pressure. Demand side, as copper prices fell, downstream enterprises may have had some restocking demand, but the current copper prices had limited actual appeal. Supply side, social inventory remained at a high level, but spot cargo available for actual circulation was relatively tight. Some warrants were already seen flowing out during the day, which may ease some pressure on spot supply. Meanwhile, the import window remained open, and expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China increased. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain the current discount structure overall tomorrow.

Spot #1 copper cathode prices in North China were quoted at an average discount of 60 yuan/mt against the front-month contract today, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 99,020 yuan/mt, down 1,240 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,680 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE zinc briefly rose to a high of 23,685 yuan/mt, after which bears added to their positions and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward all the way, hitting a low of 23,440 yuan/mt near the close. It finally closed down at 23,455 yuan/mt, down 275 yuan/mt, or 1.16%. Trading volume fell to 39,416 lots, and open interest increased by 10,738 lots to 91,209 lots.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $12,871/mt. It hit a high of $12,942/mt amid wide swings early in the session, after which the center of copper prices gradually moved lower and fell to $12,733/mt near the close, finally settling at $12,735.5/mt, down 1.64%. Trading volume reached 22,600 lots, and open interest stood at 307,000 lots, an increase of 3,144 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears adding positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2604 contract opened at 100,520 yuan/mt and climbed to 100,760 yuan/mt early in the session. Afterwards, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward and touched a low of 99,710 yuan/mt near the close, with a decline of 0.86%. Trading volume reached 38,900 lots, and open interest stood at 190,000 lots, a decrease of 930 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

SMM News, March 18: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,922.5/mt. In early trading, LME lead fell rapidly to a low of $1,913/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, reaching a high of $1,932/mt, after which bears regained control and SHFE lead turned downward. Entering the European session, LME lead dropped sharply before beginning to rebound in fluctuations, with prices posting wide swings in the $1,921-1,931/mt range. It finally closed at $1,926/mt, up $1/mt, or 0.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,635 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead edged up to a high of 16,685 yuan/mt, then came under pressure and pulled back to a low of 16,595 yuan/mt. SHFE lead showed a sideways movement overall during the night session, with prices posting wide swings in the 16,620-16,685 yuan/mt range from intraday to the close, and finally closing at 16,670 yuan/mt. It recorded a small bullish candlestick, up 70 yuan/mt, or 0.42%. At present, inventory at primary lead smelters continued to decline, while suppliers held firm on quotes and showed a clear reluctance to sell. Losses at secondary lead enterprises widened, and most producers adopted a wait-and-see attitude and were reluctant to sell, leading to some tightening in overall effective market supply. After restocking at low levels, downstream battery plants slowed their procurement pace, and downstream demand remained weak. The overall pattern of weak supply and weak demand persisted. Lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Subsequent price moves require close attention to geopolitical factors, changes in operating rates at secondary lead enterprises in mid-to-late March, and actual downstream procurement conditions.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME Inventory Increased by 20kt, LME Zinc Came Under Pressure] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,277/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly rose to a high of $3,293/mt before bulls reduced open interest, sending LME zinc fluctuating downward throughout the session and touching a low of $3,210/mt during the night session. The center then rebounded slightly, and it finally closed down at $3,233/mt, down $46/mt, a decrease of 1.4%, with trading volume increasing to 13,404 lots and open interest falling by 3,868 lots to 214,000 lots.