SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM August 6 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals rose broadly. SHFE copper rose 0.56%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%. SHFE lead was flat at 15,640 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc rose 1.6%. SHFE tin rose 1.7%. SHFE nickel fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.56%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.13%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 0.72%. Iron ore rose 1.85%. Rebar rose 0.74%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.94%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.56%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose broadly. LME copper rose 0.75%. LME aluminum rose 0.81%. LME lead was flat at $1,890/mt. LME zinc rose 2.31%. LME tin rose 2.1%. LME nickel edged down 0.06%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 3.74%, and COMEX silver rose 3.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold most-traded rose 3.58%, and SHFE silver most-traded rose 3.72%. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong said, "The link between gold and oil prices remains, as oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices could continue to rise." Traders now expect a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 policy meeting, down from 67% a day earlier. (Jin10 Data APP) Overnight closing quotes as of 7:11 on August 6: Macro front Domestic: [Foreign Ministry: Firmly Opposes US Abusing National Power to Unreasonably Suppress Chinese Enterprises] In response to reports that the US is drafting regulations to suppress Chinese enterprises, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on the 5th when answering a reporter's question that China firmly opposes the US abusing its national power to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises. A reporter asked: It is reported that the US is drafting regulations to ban the import of China-made new-type optical transceiver modules and is preparing to impose additional tariffs and set a price floor on polysilicon and related products. Given the US's previous sanctions and restrictions on Huawei, how does China assess the planned US actions? What specific measures will be taken to protect the rights and interests of Chinese enterprises? Lin Jian said, China firmly opposes the US overstretching the concept of national security and abusing its national power to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises. Protectionism cannot boost US competitiveness. The US's actions severely hinder normal economic and trade exchanges between China and the US and are not in the interests of any party, including US enterprises and consumers. China will continue to firmly safeguard the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangxi: Trade-in Policy Boosts Smart Home Appliance Consumption] With the implementation of national subsidies combined with local expansion policies coinciding with the summer consumption peak season, the Guangxi home appliance market welcomed a new round of consumption boom. During visits, it was found that the trade-in policy continued to gain momentum, smart home appliances accelerated their entry into millions of households, and consumption upgrading trends were evident. Since the beginning of this year, Guangxi's consumer goods trade-in program has subsidized 2.061 million units of digital and smart products, 95,000 vehicles, and 2.553 million units of home appliances, with total subsidy funds of 2.96 billion yuan, boosting commodity sales of 26.7 billion yuan. Among these, the proportion of county-level participants reached 45.2%, and the proportion of subsidy amount enjoyed in rural areas accounted for 37.1%, indicating rural consumption potential was being rapidly released. Hong Tao, director of the Institute of Business Economics at Beijing Technology and Business University, stated that the trade-in policy, on the basis of continued policy support, has upgraded to a "demand + experience" dual-drive. The national, local, and enterprise levels have established a triple subsidy linkage system, reducing household replacement costs and stimulating consumption vitality while helping the whole society save energy and reduce carbon, promoting the popularization of green and low-carbon lifestyles. (Xinhua News Agency) [CAAM Initiates Establishment of Autonomous Driving Industry Development Joint Committee] Hosted by CAAM, the 16th China Auto Forum was held in Jiading, Shanghai. During the forum, CAAM officially announced the initiation of the establishment of the "Autonomous Driving Industry Development Joint Committee" and held the launching ceremony. At the ceremony, CAAM stated that the Joint Committee will adhere to the principle of "taking safety as the bottom line, with innovation as the driving force, and using coordination to promote development," working with all industry parties to jointly promote the safe, orderly, and large-scale development of China's autonomous driving industry, contributing industrial strength to building an automotive powerhouse and cultivating new quality productive forces. The Joint Committee sincerely invites OEMs, autonomous driving solution providers, chip and sensor companies, software and communication firms, testing and certification agencies, universities, and research institutes, and other relevant industry chain entities to join in discussing development plans, building collaborative mechanisms, and sharing industrial achievements. (CAAM) [DCE: Coke Options to Be Listed for Trading from September 2, 2026 (Wednesday)] The DCE announced that coke options will be listed for trading starting September 2, 2026 (Wednesday). The position limit for coke options is 5,000 lots. Coke options and coke futures have separate position limits. The combined buy holdings of all call options and sell holdings of all put options, as well as the combined buy holdings of all put options and sell holdings of all call options, in an options contract of a certain month for non-futures company members and clients, must not exceed the position limit for the options product. Positions deemed as acting in concert shall be aggregated for calculation. [CPCA: Preliminary Estimates Show July National Passenger Car Market Retail Sales at 1.506 Million Units, Down 18% YoY] Preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed that from July 1 to 31, national passenger car market retail sales totaled 1.506 million units, down 18% YoY and down 6% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 10.207 million units, down 20% YoY. National passenger car wholesale volumes by automakers from July 1 to 31 were 2.241 million units, up 1% YoY but down 5% MoM, with year-to-date cumulative wholesale volumes at 14.788 million units, down 5% YoY. (from Wall Street News APP) Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the decline of the previous trading day to fall 0.17% to 99.69. US private employment growth in July was significantly below expectations, indicating that labor market momentum had cooled somewhat, but wage growth remained resilient, and the overall employment situation remained stable. Data released by ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed that private sector employment increased by 44,000 in July, below the 65,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the lowest level this year, following a revised figure of 95,000 in June. The US government's non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday is closely watched by the market. If the data is confirmed, the current employment trend would support the Fed's continued focus on still-high inflation. (Wall Street News) Driven by a rebound in new orders and business activity, the US services sector maintained a stable expansion trend in July. Data released on Wednesday showed that the July ISM Services Index rose 0.1 point to 54.1, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. The new orders growth rate accelerated, and the gauge of business activity rose to a five-month high, indicating consumer demand remained resilient. However, rising service and material costs continued to pressure enterprises. As the temporary deal between the US and Iran broke down, driving crude oil and gasoline prices higher, the ISM Prices Paid Index surged to 70.3 in July. With persistently high costs squeezing corporate profits and affecting consumer spending, some companies may choose to delay hiring. The employment gauge of the institute indicated the most pronounced contraction in employment since March. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Governor Cook reiterated her stance: if inflation does not slow, she is prepared to raise rates , and warned that policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting for inflation to return to the 2% target. Although Cook supported the Fed's decision to hold rates steady at the July policy meeting, she warned that the longer inflation remains above the Fed's target, the harder it will be to tame. In a speech at an event in Alaska, Cook said, "If I don't see signs that inflation is sustainably declining soon, I am ready to act. With inflation above target for five consecutive years, the risk that inflation becomes entrenched in price- and wage-setting behaviour is rising, which would lead to more persistent inflation that is harder to address." But Cook stated that the fading impact of tariffs, the possibility of lower oil prices, and the easing of pressures related to the AI boom could provide a buffer for inflation, thereby avoiding the need to tighten policy . She said her top priority remains bringing inflation back to the Fed's target. In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the Fed should now "start gradually raising" rates to lower inflation and avoid the need for more aggressive hikes in the future. Kashkari was one of three voting members who supported a 25-basis-point rate hike at last week's FOMC meeting. He said that with strong corporate earnings and resilient consumers and labor market, there is no evidence that monetary policy is clearly restrictive, making it time to start gradually raising rates. He stressed that this is not advocating for large rate hikes, but rather hoping for "small steps" to avoid the need for sharp policy tightening in the future if inflation becomes entrenched. He added that he is unsure what action the FOMC will take in September, and incoming data will play a key role. Meanwhile, Kashkari said that Fed Chairman Warsh did not pressure him, once telling him: "Do what you think is right for the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September is 45.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 54.4%. For October, the probability of no change is 33.5%, a cumulative 25 bps hike is 52.1%, and a cumulative 50 bps hike is 14.5%. Macro: Today, data to be released include Switzerland's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone's June retail sales MoM, US July Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, and US June wholesale sales MoM. Focus on: Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech on the economic outlook; 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly's speech. Crude oil: Overnight, oil futures showed mixed performance, with WTI falling 0.91% and Brent edging up 0.08%. Iran and Oman are expected to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calming oil prices. Wall Street News mentioned that Iran systematically disclosed more details about negotiations with Oman on new transit arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz for the first time and publicly explained the latest contacts between the US and Iran regarding the strait's reopening. On Wednesday, the 5th local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said that Iran and Oman are working on a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz that differs from the past 60 years. According to the new route design, commercial vessels, whether entering or exiting the strait, would need to pass through Iranian territorial waters in some sections. According to CCTV News, he stressed that arrangements related to the strait should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and Iran would never accept the involvement of any external forces. (Wall Street News) The US exported a record volume of distillate fuel overseas last week while domestic inventories fell again, indicating that the global scramble for diesel is increasingly drawing down US supplies. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, distillate fuel exports rose to 1.9 million barrels per day last week, the highest level on record, surpassing the previous peak set in May. Distillate fuels mainly include diesel, heating oil, and other products. At the onset of the US-Iran war, the global diesel market was thrown into disarray. Global fuel supply was disrupted as crude and product tankers could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, months of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining facilities further exacerbated supply pressures. This has made the US one of the few countries globally with sufficient diesel production capacity to churn out large volumes of fuel and export it overseas. US diesel exports have exceeded 1.5 million barrels per day for five consecutive weeks. Even with refiners running at full throttle to produce diesel, US fuel stockpiles are still falling. As of last week, distillate fuel inventories, on a seasonally adjusted basis, had dropped to the lowest level for the same period since 1996. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM August 5: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.68%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.08%. SHFE lead rose 1.79%, SHFE zinc rose 0.84%, and SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel fell 0.75%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.19%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.09%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 1.25%, iron ore was flat at 699.5 yuan/mt, rebar fell 0.07%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.01%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 1.41%. LME aluminum fell 0.29%. LME lead rose 1.23%. LME zinc rose 0.74%. LME tin rose 0.84%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.07%, and COMEX silver rose 3.27%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.87%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.45%. CITIC Securities said in a research note that gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly this year, but they believe gold is still in a major bull market, citing accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, difficult-to-heal geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued support from global central bank gold purchases. They therefore view the current pullback as only a temporary correction within the bull market. The current drawdown has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is likely the bottom zone of this round. Looking ahead, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to shift from a drag to a boost for gold prices, the Fed’s monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and the surge in US military spending is pushing up the deficit; gold prices are expected to return to an upward trajectory within the year. (Jin10 Data App) As of 7:11 on August 5, closing prices for overnight trading were: Macro front China: [MIIT: Strengthen the screening and testing/verification of risks and hidden dangers in "aggressive" innovative designs of road motor vehicle products, and strengthen the safety evaluation of combined driver assistance and autonomous driving functions] On August 4, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) organized a discussion with road motor vehicle inspection and testing institutions to analyze the current product safety and inspection work situation and to arrange efforts to regulate the competitive order and improve the quality of inspection and testing in the road motor vehicle sector. The meeting called for inspection and testing institutions to thoroughly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly resist irrational competition, and strictly control product testing. First, conduct in-depth self-checks to systematically identify problems in the inspection and testing of road motor vehicle products and earnestly carry out rectifications. Second, strengthen industry self-discipline, focus on main responsibilities, reinforce responsibility, enhance integrity and self-discipline, and jointly safeguard the credibility of the entire industry. Third, hold the bottom line of product safety by implementing quality control measures for sample vehicle management, personnel management, and process management, strengthen the screening and testing/verification of risks and hidden dangers in "aggressive" innovative designs, and enhance the safety evaluation of combined driver assistance and autonomous driving functions. Fourth, improve capabilities by actively participating in the formulation and revision of standards and regulations, accelerate the establishment of a testing and evaluation system for intelligent connected vehicles, strengthen the capacity for road motor vehicle inspection and testing, and provide objective, fair information and professional opinions to the industry. Going forward, the MIIT will work with relevant departments to in-depth carry out actions on production consistency and quality improvement for road motor vehicle products, intensify work inspections, urge and guide inspection and testing institutions to fulfill their role as "gatekeepers" of product safety, improve the quality of inspection and testing work, impose joint penalties on institutions with problems, and resolutely hold the bottom line of product safety. (From the Wallstreetcn App) [PBOC: Net injection of 50 billion yuan via open market government bond transactions in July] The PBOC released its liquidity injection data for various tools in July 2026. In terms of central bank lending, the standing lending facility (SLF) recorded a net withdrawal of 1 billion yuan; the medium-term lending facility (MLF) recorded a net injection of 100 billion yuan; and the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) recorded a net withdrawal of 116.1 billion yuan. In terms of open market operations, 7-day reverse repos recorded a net injection of 249.5 billion yuan, open market government bond transactions recorded a net injection of 50 billion yuan, and central treasury cash management recorded a net injection of 30 billion yuan. Dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.86. According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in September was 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 58.4%. The probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged through October was 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike was 15.5%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, in an interview with CNBC, said Fed Chairman Warsh wants to preserve flexibility to achieve the best outcome. When discussing the strategy of the Fed and Warsh, he called it a "detox" for the Fed. He said every meeting should be live (full of possibilities) and participants should exercise their own judgment. He believed the Fed will balance its growth and inflation objectives, and he trusted that Warsh will help the Fed strike a balance between the two. On the economy and inflation, he noted that after stripping out sectors affected by energy prices, core inflation performance has been very steady, and underlying inflation data has been very mild, a trend he expects to continue. He also noted that core inflation is slowing. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's policy reaction function has shifted to become less dovish. His comments this year suggested that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models indicating the Fed's policy rate could be as little as more than 25 bp or as much as more than 100 bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he made two points. First, he defended Warsh's decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I think every meeting should be open, and market participants should make their own judgments... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best results." Second, he did lay out what could be seen as a dovish reaction function, advocating that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will the rise in short-term interest rates bring? We will wait and see." He raised that question but then responded by pointing out that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "Within core inflation, after stripping out the volatile components significantly influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I think that will continue." (Jin10 Data App) Macro front: Data to be released today include China's July RatingDog Services PMI, France's June industrial output m/m, the final France July Services PMI, the final Germany July Services PMI, the final Eurozone July Services PMI, the final UK July Services PMI, the Eurozone June PPI m/m, the US July ADP employment change, the final US July S&P Global Services PMI, and the US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Also on the radar: a speech by Kansas City Fed President Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voter, on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude oil front: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended their declines from the previous trading day, with WTI falling 6.47% and Brent dropping 6.08%. Wallstreetcn noted that on Tuesday, August 4 (US Eastern Time), Reuters, citing informed sources, reported that Iran has abandoned its earlier demand for full control over two-way shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and instead proposed that Iran manage all vessel navigation entering the Strait while retaining supervisory rights and the right to intervene when necessary over vessels departing the Strait. Xinhua News Agency, citing US media, reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Tuesday that an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on August 4 or 5. Also according to Xinhua, US Secretary of State Rubio said on the same day that negotiations with Iran on reopening the Strait had "made progress" but a deal had not yet been finalized. The sharp drop in oil prices meant cooling inflation expectations for the market. Tony Miano of Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted: "The market is reacting to the prospect that a reopening of Hormuz could help normalize global oil supplies and ease recent energy price pressures, and lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns." However, he cautioned that inflation is unlikely to normalize overnight, and even after energy pressures ease, overall prices could remain sticky in the near term. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM August 4 News: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper gained 0.43%. SHFE aluminum added 0.61%. SHFE lead fell 1.17%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.82%, and SHFE tin rose 0.44%. SHFE nickel climbed 1.13%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.08%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract edged up 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly declined. Stainless steel surged 3.09%, iron ore fell 0.71%, and rebar slipped 0.4%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.56%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.46%. Overnight on the overseas metals market, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper gained 0.33%. LME aluminum rose 1%. LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc dipped 0.16%. LME tin inched up 0.03%. LME nickel slipped 0.26%. Overnight in the precious metals segment : COMEX gold rose 0.09%, while COMEX silver gained 1.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.11%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract added 0.34%. As of 7:17 a.m. on August 4, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic side: [Li Qiang Signs State Council Decree to Promulgate Revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree to promulgate the revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits, effective October 15, 2026. The Regulations aim to protect exclusive rights to integrated circuit layout-designs, encourage technological innovation in integrated circuits, and promote scientific and technological development. The Regulations consist of six chapters and 54 articles, with the main revisions as follows. First, clarify the overall requirements. The protection of integrated circuit layout-designs shall implement the strategic deployment of the Party and the state on intellectual property rights, expand the scope of protection, and emphasize good faith. Second, improve the application and examination procedures. Regulate fraudulent applications, refine material requirements, improve rejection and revocation procedures, and add procedures for restoration of rights. Third, strengthen protection of exclusive rights. Clarify standards for defining the scope of rights and increase compensation for infringement. Fourth, promote the utilization of layout-designs. Strengthen public services, specify reward and remuneration measures, improve requirements for transfer, licensing, and pledge, and regulate the exercise of co-owners' rights. (Xinhua News Agency) [NDRC and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction. It proposes that by 2030, the new-type power system will be initially established: a green and low-carbon power supply pattern will have basically taken shape, with non-fossil energy accounting for 50% of power generation; power supply capability will be continuously enhanced, complementarity and mutual support among power systems will be greatly improved, and security and resilience will be significantly strengthened, keeping power supply adequacy at a reasonable level to effectively meet the electricity needs of socioeconomic development and people's aspirations for a better life; a safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, strong, resilient, intelligent, and flexible new-type power grid will be initially built, giving full play to its role as a resource allocation platform and service functions, achieving high-level consumption of over 2.8 billion kW of new energy, and establishing a charging infrastructure network capable of supporting more than 110 million EVs. The institutional mechanisms for the new-type power system will be further improved, and a unified national power market system will be basically established. The plan proposes promoting wide-load high-efficiency retrofits for existing coal-fired power units, controlling the increase in coal consumption under low-load operating conditions to within 25%. It also calls for promoting full-load denitrification retrofits for coal-fired units based on local conditions. Implement a batch of cross-generation upgrade projects for 600,000-kW-level units. In areas with suitable conditions, build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects. Formulate policies for the integrated development of coal power and new energy, support the priority implementation of a batch of coal power-new energy integration projects in areas where conditions permit, carry out retrofits to enhance coal power's regulating capability, and promote the coupling and integration of coal power and new energy systems to achieve integrated regulation and delivery and reduce coal-fired power generation. [SHFE Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to copper, gold, rebar, and natural rubber futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by the exchange. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to crude oil futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by INE. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. (Shanghai International Energy Exchange) [CISA: In the Next Stage, Strictly Implement the Steel Export License Management System] In H1 2026, steel exports saw an overall decline in volume and stable prices, while steel billet exports surged significantly. Overseas, 12 original anti-dumping investigations were initiated against Chinese steel, and trade friction pressure remained unabated. In H2, external constraints tightened: the EU's new steel safeguard measures reduced quotas and introduced the "melted and poured" origin rule, and coupled with global geopolitical disruptions, the export environment became more complex. In the next stage, strictly implement the steel export license management system, adhere to the orientation of "promoting high-end products, stabilizing peripheral markets, and strict supervision," strengthen industry self-discipline, optimize the export structure, deepen cultivation of peripheral and emerging markets, actively respond to trade frictions, proactively adapt to international rules, and drive the transformation of exports toward high-end and green development to achieve steady and orderly progress. (CISA) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.97. In July, the US manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than four years, driven by sustained strong demand, surging production, and increased hiring. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 in July, the highest since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the sector has now been above that level for seven consecutive months. The Production Index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge signaled that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New order growth — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing has been robust this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, firm business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only industry reporting contraction was chemical products. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 67.2%. For the October meeting, the probability of holding rates steady is 23.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 57.3% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 19.3%. Fed's Williams said he remains optimistic that inflation pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy remains on a solid footing, "I think some of the main factors that had been pushing up inflation over the last year and a half or so will fade, and some of the disinflationary forces that we had observed earlier should reassert themselves." He added, "I'm watching very carefully the next few months' readings on core inflation to see if they are consistent with inflation moving toward 2% and continuing to trend lower, to give us confidence that we can achieve our 2% inflation goal durably by 2028." He also said, "My own forecast is that inflation will come down in the second half of this year and come down further next year." Williams reiterated that the current policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to target. But he noted, "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2% ... then taking action to get us back to that 2% path would be entirely appropriate." (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Data from the Bank of Japan's accounts suggest that Japan likely spent about $34 billion on Friday to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, building on the coordinated action with the US on Thursday. Based on a comparison of BOJ account data released Monday with money broker forecasts, the estimated intervention was about 5.33 trillion yen (approximately $34 billion). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier Monday that Japan had stepped into the market on Friday. The continued yen-buying by Japanese authorities underscores their determination to counter bearish bets against the yen. The US Treasury joined the effort last week to shore up the yen, marking the closest coordination on exchange rate policy in 15 years. Analysis of the BOJ accounts does not reflect the scale of US intervention in the market, but US involvement may have reduced the amount of funds Japan needed to achieve the same exchange rate effect. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today, data such as the US Trade Balance for June, US JOLTS Job Openings for June, and US Factory Orders MoM for June will be released. Attention should be paid to: SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings release; the FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit to be held August 4-6, with storage giants such as Samsung and SK hynix in attendance. Crude Oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures plunged, with WTI tumbling 5.44% and Brent falling 4.81%. Last Sunday, Trump said publicly that the US and Iran would start talks on Monday, adding that "after the Hormuz agreement comes the nuclear deal." Iran earlier Monday denied the claim of talks with the US. During afternoon US stock trading, Trump again said negotiations with Iran were still ongoing. He said the US is currently in dialogue with Iran at its request, a process supported by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries, and stressed that this will be Iran's "last chance to sign a good deal." Signals are currently mixed, and the market has turned to a wait-and-see mode. Substantive risks in the Strait of Hormuz have yet to dissipate. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion near a tanker off the coast of Oman on Sunday. This waterway, which in peacetime carries about one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG shipments, already saw an LNG carrier attacked late last week. On the futures curve, Brent is in a pronounced backwardation structure, reflecting still-tight physical market supply. (Wall Street Insights)

[SMM Tin Morning Update: Yinman Accident Adds Supply Weight, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Maintains 427,000 Consolidating at Highs]

SMM August 1 News: In the metals market: On the overnight session last Friday, base metals on the domestic market showed mixed performance. SHFE copper fell 0.18%, with a monthly gain of 2.9% in July. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,665 yuan/mt, with a monthly gain of 4.63% in July. SHFE lead fell 1.41%, SHFE zinc edged up 0.64%, and SHFE tin rose 0.72%. SHFE nickel fell 0.24%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures edged up 0.04%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract edged up 0.02%. On the overnight session last Friday, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel rose 0.17%, iron ore fell 2.85%, rebar fell 0.83%, and HRC fell 0.74%. In the coking coal and coke sector, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.38%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. On the overseas market during the overnight session last Friday, LME base metals generally rose. LME copper edged up 0.03%, with a monthly gain of 3.16% in July. LME aluminum rose 0.06%, with a monthly gain of 2.9% in July. LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc rose 0.84%. LME tin rose 0.26%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. In the precious metals market during the overnight session last Friday: COMEX gold fell 1.49%, with its weekly chart posting a second consecutive gain, up 0.68% for the week, and its July monthly chart rising 1.49%. COMEX silver fell 2.1%, with its weekly chart declining 1.92% for the week, and its monthly chart posting a second consecutive loss, down 3.58% in July. In the overnight session last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.89%, with its weekly chart posting a second consecutive gain, up 0.55% for the week, and its July monthly chart rising 1.52%. The most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.01%, ending a two-week winning streak but still up 0.98% for the week, and its July monthly chart rising 1.21%. As of 8:16 AM on August 1, closing prices from the overnight session last Friday: Macro Front China: [State Council Executive Meeting: Studying and Implementing General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Key Speech on the H1 Economic Situation and Efforts for H2 Economic Work] The meeting stressed the need to align thinking and understanding with the CPC Central Committee’s scientific assessment of the economic situation, take more concrete measures to consistently steer the economy toward new, superior, and sounder development, and strive for a good start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It called for effectively enhancing the implementation efficiency of macro policies, making full and good use of all existing policies, and promptly devising and rolling out pragmatic and effective incremental policies. It also emphasized the need to effectively expand domestic demand, launch a set of robust measures in sectors with great potential and strong driving force, accelerate the execution of major projects designated in the 15th Five-Year Plan, and solidly advance the planning and construction of the “Six-Network” infrastructure. Efforts must be continuously made to strengthen internal drivers of development, and more concrete and effective measures should be introduced in building a unified national market and improving the business environment. We must persistently guard against and defuse risks in key areas, do a solid job in disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief, as well as work safety, strengthen support for people in difficulty, and secure the bottom line of people’s livelihood. (CCTV) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Visits Selected Automobile Producers for Supervision and Inspection] To further regulate competition order in the automotive industry and enhance production conformity and quality and safety levels of automotive products, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology conducted supervision and inspection on vehicle product safety assurance capabilities and production conformity at Chery Automobile Co., Ltd., NIO Technology (Anhui) Co., Ltd., and Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp., Ltd. from the 30th to the 31st. It is learned that going forward, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will, together with relevant departments, further carry out actions to improve production conformity and quality of road motor vehicle products, strengthen entry review and testing verification management for “aggressive” innovative designs of automotive products, urge automobile and motorcycle producers to thoroughly identify product safety risks and hazards, strengthen product testing, verification, and safety assessment, standardize marketing and promotional practices, uphold product safety bottom lines, and effectively protect consumers’ lawful rights and interests. (Xinhua News Agency) [CSRC Approves Registration of Coke Options] Recently, the CSRC approved the registration of coke options on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The CSRC will urge the Dalian Commodity Exchange to make all preparations to ensure the smooth launch and stable operation of coke options. On the US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.78. On the weekly chart, the dollar index declined by 1.65% for the week. On the monthly chart, the dollar index declined by 1.37% for the month. According to a New York Times report, Fed Chairman Warsh is reportedly considering reducing the number of regularly scheduled interest-rate-setting meetings of the Federal Reserve, a move that could cause huge shockwaves and would mark the most significant change in how the Fed operates in recent years. Currently, the Fed’s 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to vote on whether to raise, lower, or maintain borrowing costs. According to four people familiar with the matter, Warsh proposed adjustments to the meeting frequency at this week’s Fed meeting. According to the people, at this week’s meeting, Warsh discussed the legal basis the Fed must follow regarding the minimum number of meetings it is required to hold each year and a timetable for such adjustments. According to sources, Walsh asked officials to provide him with their individual views, rather than holding a full discussion on the meeting agenda during this week’s session. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Chairman Walsh kept interest rates unchanged this week, but three officials dissented, arguing for an immediate rate hike to address persistent inflation risks. Katharine Neiss, Deputy Head of Global Economics at PGIM Credit, said Walsh’s press conference performance was "weaker than expectations," and she expects the US Fed’s "hawkish pivot" to materialize in September, when three consecutive rate hikes could be delivered. Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman noted: The support for the US dollar from the resilience in US economic activity was offset by Walsh’s failure to translate his hawkish inflation rhetoric into credible policy action, raising the risk of the Fed falling behind the curve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 65% probability of a September rate hike, a pullback from 82% a week ago. (Wall Street Insight) Three Fed policymakers said their dissenting votes in favor of a rate hike this week stemmed from stubborn inflationary pressures, signaling rising internal pressure on Fed Chairman Walsh to act. In statements released Friday morning, Hammack and Kashkari said they are concerned that, while the current round of price increases may have originated from short-term factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies and the Iran war, the inflation picture now warrants action by the US Fed. Logan joined them, stating that even if inflation has cooled somewhat, it is unlikely to fully pull back to the Fed’s 2% target without a rate increase; without any policy restraint, inflation could continue to exceed the target until an unexpected shock hits. Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he could support a series of rate hikes—not just a single move—to prevent it from becoming further entrenched. "A series of smaller policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for developments and ultimately having to take more forceful action," he said. Hammack said the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate if the Fed does not tighten policy. "Inflation has been stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I am not confident it will fall back to our target on its own," she said. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed’s Barkin said it is an "open question" whether the US Fed has set interest rates at a level sufficiently restrictive to curb inflation, adding that he is unsure whether he would have voted in favor, like the three other regional Fed presidents who dissented in favor of a hike this week. In an interview on Friday, Barkin said: 'I think there is a strong case for tightening policy and taking back some of last year's rate cuts.' He noted that given the slowdown in June inflation data, 'I think one could also argue... there is time before the next meeting to judge whether the current policy stance is appropriate.' Barkin will not vote on interest rate decisions until next year. Additionally, Barkin was sceptical that the labour market has significantly strengthened. He said, 'It doesn't feel like the labour market is very tight.' He also pointed out that price increases are not transmitting evenly through the economy, making it difficult to gauge how much inflation remains. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China July RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July CPI MoM, France July Manufacturing PMI Final, Germany July Manufacturing PMI Final, Eurozone July Manufacturing PMI Final, UK July Manufacturing PMI Final, US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final, US July ISM Manufacturing PMI, US June Construction Spending MoM, US June Trade Balance, US June JOLTS Job Openings, US June Factory Orders MoM, China July RatingDog Services PMI, France June Industrial Production MoM, France July Services PMI Final, Germany July Services PMI Final, Eurozone July Services PMI Final, UK July Services PMI Final, Eurozone June PPI MoM, US July ADP Employment Change, US July S&P Global Services PMI Final, US July ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Switzerland July Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate, Eurozone June Retail Sales MoM, US July Challenger Job Cuts, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, US June Wholesale Sales MoM, France Q2 ILO Unemployment Rate, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Industrial Production MoM, Germany June Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance, UK July Halifax Seasonally Adjusted House Price Index MoM, France June Trade Balance, Switzerland July Consumer Confidence Index, Canada July Employment Change, US July Unemployment Rate, US July Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls, US July Average Hourly Earnings YoY, US July Average Hourly Earnings MoM, US July NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations, China July Trade Balance in USD terms, China July Foreign Exchange Reserves, China July Trade Balance, China July CPI YoY, and China July PPI YoY. In addition, attention this week should also be paid to: SpaceX will report its Q2 2026 results; 2028 FOMC voter, St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter, Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech. Crude Oil: Both oil futures surged in the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 3.84% and Brent up 4.79%. For the week, WTI futures fell 2.81%, while Brent futures slipped 0.7%. For the month, WTI futures soared 24.89% and Brent futures jumped 24.8%. A decline in ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz heightened market concerns over global crude oil shipments. Uncertainty persists over when Middle Eastern crude oil supply will return to normal. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement reached in June had completely broken down by early July. From mid to late July, the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy trade choke point, remained severely disrupted, with intermittent blockades at times. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries destroyed around 30% to 45% of Russia’s operational refining capacity, pushing European diesel refining margins above $60/bbl and driving global refined product prices near wartime highs. (Wall Street CN) Data released by the international shipping information platform “MarineTraffic” on July 31 showed that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on the 30th fell to 5 from 22 the previous day, a decline of 77%. The platform’s data indicated that all 5 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz via the lane on the Iranian side. (Jin10 Data App) According to CBS News, citing multiple sources, the US and Israel are planning to carry out “one of the most intense bombing campaigns to date” against Iran’s energy infrastructure, potentially targeting power plants and refineries, with the operation possibly lasting through the weekend. Iranian media reported on August 1, citing an Iranian official, that Iran considers a US-Israeli attack on its infrastructure to be a “reckless act” and has developed a comprehensive plan to respond to “any possible reckless actions by the US.” (Jin10 Data App) According to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, the Yemeni Houthi group said that in implementing a “blockade for blockade” strategy, after imposing maritime restrictions on Saudi oil tankers, it had forced 8 Saudi tankers to change course and reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. (Jin10 Data App) Additionally, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that for the week ended July 28, speculative net long positions in Brent crude fell by 6,948 contracts to 185,083 contracts. Speculative net long positions in diesel rose by 2,654 contracts to 87,194 contracts. (Jin10 Data App) Recommended Reads:

SMM July 24 News: Metal markets: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market generally fell. SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE aluminum edged down, SHFE lead fell 0.57%, SHFE zinc fell 0.22%, SHFE tin fell 1.24%. SHFE nickel edged up. Furthermore, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.33%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract fell 0.17%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.47%, iron ore fell 0.47%, rebar fell 0.45%, and HRC fell 0.33%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.31%, and the most-traded coke futures contract edged up. Overnight in the overseas market, LME base metals mostly moved downward. LME copper fell 1.74%. LME aluminum fell 0.08%, LME lead fell 0.32%. LME zinc fell 0.14%. LME tin fell 1.19%. LME nickel rose 0.85%. Overnight in precious metals : COMEX gold fell 2.4%, COMEX silver fell 3.99%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 2.25%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract fell 4.22%. As of 7:07 AM on July 24, overnight closing prices: On the Macro Front China: [Ministry of Commerce: Will further strengthen the domestic economic cycle and optimize the dual domestic and international cycles] On July 23, Ministry of Commerce Vice Minister Yan Dong stated at a press conference that since the beginning of this year, according to the deployment of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, efforts have been stepped up to advance the formulation and implementation of related “15th Five-Year” special plans in the commercial sector. The next step will continue to focus on high-quality development as the primary task, continuously improve policy effectiveness, further strengthen the domestic economic cycle, optimize the dual domestic and international cycles, and make new positive contributions to national economic development. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [Ministry of Commerce: China and US economic and trade teams are exploring a framework arrangement to promote reciprocal tariff cuts each worth $30 billion] Meng Huating, Director-General of the Department of Foreign Investment Administration of the Ministry of Commerce, responded to a question on the progress of establishing trade and investment councils between China and the US at a State Council Information Office press conference on the 23rd, stating that currently, the economic and trade teams of China and the US are maintaining close communication on the specific arrangements for the trade council’s structure, functions, and operational model, and are exploring a framework arrangement to promote reciprocal tariff cuts each worth $30 billion. The Chinese side is extensively soliciting opinions from domestic enterprises, business associations, local governments, and US-invested enterprise associations and other stakeholders on the relevant proposed tariff cut arrangement. The US side is also seeking public comment on the trade council and reciprocal tariff cut arrangement. Both sides will maintain close exchanges and finalize the specific product tariff cut arrangements as soon as possible and promote implementation to further expand bilateral trade. (Xinhua News Agency) [People’s Bank of China conducts 500 billion yuan MLF operation] The People’s Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, it would conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price bidding method, with a term of 1 year. [CSRC: Promote steady increase in the scale and proportion of medium and long-term funds entering the market, strengthen policy reserves to cope with global market fluctuations and cross-border risk contagion] The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on Party building and regulatory work. The meeting emphasized that the changes unseen in a century are accelerating, geopolitical conflicts persist, and the risk of resonance and contagion in global financial markets is rising. At the same time, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is accelerating breakthroughs, positive factors on the macro policy front, fundamentals front, and capital front are accumulating, the effects of capital market reforms are continuously emerging, and the market overall possesses good allocation value. The meeting stressed implementing comprehensive measures to fully maintain stable market operations and enhance capital market resilience. It called for more precise and effective counter-cyclical adjustments, promoting the steady increase in the scale and proportion of medium and long-term funds entering the market, strengthening policy reserves to cope with global market fluctuations and cross-border risk contagion, and building a strong seawall against external risk shocks. It urged deepening reforms to enhance institutional inclusiveness and adaptability, implementing detailed measures for comprehensive investment and financing reforms, and better leveraging the functions of the stock, fund, bond, and futures markets. [Beijing issues measures to accelerate the development led by AI agents, accelerating key technological breakthroughs in general AI agents across models and chips] Multiple departments in Beijing jointly formulated the “Several Measures of Beijing on Accelerating Development Led by AI Agents,” which have been approved by the municipal government and are now officially issued for implementation. The measures mentioned supporting innovative entities in implementing Harness Engineering, focusing on optimizing context engineering, task persistence, multi-agent collaboration, and system scalability to solidify the common foundation for AI agents. It aims to accelerate key technological breakthroughs in general AI agents across models and chips, support innovative entities in continuously improving the intermediate software stack, research and develop key operators and frameworks suitable for AI agent development, promote adaptation and optimization with indigenous large models, and improve the length of complex task chains and the stability of long-range task execution. (From Wallstreetcn APP) [ZCE solicits opinions on revising futures trading management measures and market maker management measures] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued an announcement soliciting public opinions on the revision of the “Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Futures Trading Management Measures” and the “Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Market Maker Management Measures.” In accordance with the Futures and Derivatives Law of the People’s Republic of China, the Futures Trading Management Regulations, the Measures for the Administration of Futures Exchanges, and other relevant laws, regulations, and rules, ZCE plans to revise the Management Measures, and is now soliciting public opinions from the market. The revision notes are as follows: First, improve the applicable circumstances for ZCE’s emergency measures by adjusting Article 16 of the Trading Management Measures. Second, for products with night trading sessions, introduce a call auction 5 minutes before the start of the daytime session on trading days with a night session, adjusting relevant provisions in both the Trading Management Measures and Market Maker Management Measures. Adding a daytime call auction can generate a fairer price at the start of daytime trading, promoting stable market operations. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index rose 0.32%, closing at 101.12. Inflationary pressures reheated, and the probability of a Fed rate hike next week surged to about 38%. Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute said: Escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed up crude oil prices, raising concerns that inflation could re-accelerate, delaying rate cuts or even possibly forcing the Fed to raise rates. (Wallstreetcn) Data-wise: US initial jobless claims fell sharply last week, indicating the US labour market remains stable and Fed officials need to continue focusing on curbing inflation. The US Labor Department said Thursday that initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18 fell by 22,000 to 187,000, compared to expectations of 212,000. Thursday’s report is the latest signal of sustained labor market stability. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in June, a one-year low, but the drop was driven more by a shrinking workforce than by employment growth. The US labour market shows an unusual equilibrium: limited labour supply, slow new job additions, and relatively limited layoffs keep the unemployment rate historically low. This situation increasingly prompts Fed policymakers to focus more on inflation, still well above the 2% target, rather than expressing more concern about the strong labour market. (Jinshi Data APP) Other Currencies: [European Central Bank holds interest rates steady] The European Central Bank held interest rates steady on Thursday, but investors expect the bank to raise rates in coming months to curb inflation sparked by the Middle East war. The ECB’s deposit facility rate was held at 2.25%, in line with broad market expectations, after the bank made its first rate increase in nearly three years last month. Tensions escalating in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed global oil prices back towards $100 a barrel, reviving the risk of war-driven inflationary pressures. (Jinshi Data APP) Macro front: Data to be released today include Germany’s August Gfk consumer sentiment index, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales m/m, France’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, Germany’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, Eurozone’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, UK’s July preliminary manufacturing PMI, UK’s July preliminary services PMI, US July preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI, US July preliminary S&P Global services PMI, and US June new home sales annualized total. Also pay attention to: AMD Advancing AI Conference held in San Francisco from July 22-23; Intel’s Q2 earnings report released after the US market close on July 23. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures extended their gains from the previous four trading sessions, with US crude rising 6.37% and Brent crude rising 4.91%. Brent crude oil futures rose to $100/barrel for the first time in two months. This followed Yemen’s Houthis claiming an attack on two Saudi oil tankers sailing in the Red Sea, intensifying the Middle East conflict and threatening further oil supply disruptions. The Houthi attack opened a new front in the regional conflict, following already troubled traffic in the Strait of Hormuz due to US-Iran clashes. Since the conflict erupted, the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea has become a lifeline for oil exports. In recent days, both US and Iranian sides have downplayed the possibility of peace talks, making a scenario of long-term hostilities appear possible. (Jinshi Data APP) A significant backwardation appeared in the price spread between Brent crude oil futures and spot prompt prices, signaling market fears that conditions could worsen. The president of Rapidan Energy Group stated: The scope of the second round of military conflict will be larger than the first. The risks are immense, not just for the shipping industry but for energy infrastructure as well. Oil market participants indicated political pressure is mounting on President Trump to end the war and control surging energy costs. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM, July 23: Metals market: Overnight, domestic base metals generally rose. SHFE copper fell 0.16%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.35%, SHFE lead gained 0.54%, SHFE zinc gained 0.98%, and SHFE tin fell 0.23%. SHFE nickel rose 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 1.72%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract gained 0.28%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up 0.2%, iron ore gained 0.34%, rebar rose 0.16%, and HRC edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract added 0.51%, and the most-traded coke contract edged up 0.08%. Overnight overseas, LME base metals mostly moved sideways. LME copper edged down 0.04%. LME aluminum was flat at $3,192.5/mt. LME lead fell 0.18%. LME zinc fell 0.15%. LME tin rose 0.39%. LME nickel fell 0.53%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.44%, and COMEX silver rose 1.57%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.16%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.69%. As of 7:07 am July 23, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [National Energy Administration: As of end-June, national cumulative installed power generation capacity reached 4.04 billion kW, up 10.8% YoY] On July 22, the National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for the January-June period. As of end-June, total installed power generation capacity reached 4.04 billion kW, up 10.8% YoY. Solar power capacity was 1.27 billion kW, up 15.8% YoY; wind power capacity was 680 million kW, up 18.5% YoY. [CSRC: steadily expand high-level institutional opening and continuously improve the convenience for foreign investors in the capital market] On July 21, Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), met in Beijing with John Graham, President and CEO of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. The two sides exchanged views on global and China economic and financial trends, investing in China’s capital market, and other topics. Wu Qing noted that against a complex and shifting international landscape, China’s economy performed generally stable in H1, maintaining a positive and improving trend and demonstrating resilience and vitality. The CSRC will pursue progress while ensuring stability, resolutely safeguard the sound and stable operation of the capital market, steadily expand high-level institutional opening, and continuously improve the convenience for foreign investors in the capital market. We welcome international institutional investors, including the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments), to expand their investments in China and share in the dividends of China’s economic and capital market reform and development. Graham stated that CPP Investments, as a long-term investor with a global footprint, pays close attention to and remains optimistic about the effectiveness of China’s economic reform and development, has long regarded China as one of its key investment regions globally, and will continue to practice its value investing philosophy by actively deploying investments in China. [Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Co., Ltd. (BSCOMC): To date, it has allocated nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds to the stock market.] On July 22, Beijing State-owned Capital Operation and Management Co., Ltd. (BSCOMC) announced that, to date, BSCOMC had allocated nearly 10 billion yuan of its own funds to the stock market. Going forward, BSCOMC will rely on its own funds and its securities companies and public fund subsidiaries to continue increasing its holdings of listed companies’ stocks, support the development of the Beijing Stock Exchange, and, in line with its functional positioning as a state-owned capital operation company, resolutely safeguard the strategic value of listed companies’ core assets, thereby contributing the strength of Beijing’s state-owned enterprises to the stable and healthy development of the capital market. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 101.12. US military strikes on Iran entered their 11th day, oil prices spiked to a six-week high, inflation expectations heated up in response, and the possibility of a Fed rate hike in July resurfaced. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 65.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.7%. By September, the probability of unchanged rates is 22%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 54.9%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 23%. (Jin10 Data APP) Joseph Lavorgna, chief US economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC), stated that if inflation does not slow, policymakers will lose their hard-won credibility. In a report, Lavorgna noted that over the past 70 years, there have been only six instances where core inflation fell by 0.9% or more year-over-year. In each case, the slowdown in inflation occurred because the Fed was tightening policy. Lavorgna said, “The longer the Fed waits, the greater the likelihood that interest rates will have to rise above the level necessary. That’s why so many past tightening cycles ended in tragedy. Chair Warsh understands this.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data due to be released include China’s June RMB share in Swift global payments, Australia’s June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the UK’s July CBI industrial order book balance, the Eurozone’s deposit facility rate as of July 23, the Eurozone’s main refinancing rate as of July 23, Canada’s May retail sales month-over-month, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, and the Eurozone’s July consumer confidence flash estimate. Also note: The ECB will announce its interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference; Google and Tesla Q2 earnings reports were released after the US stock market close on July 22. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended gains for the third straight session, with WTI up 2.54% and Brent up 4.93%. The escalating Middle East conflict and market fears of supply disruptions supported oil prices. According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command issued a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Any vessel needing to pass through the strait must use designated routes and follow previously announced transit arrangements. The statement noted that if the US follows through on its threats, Iran will cut off all oil flows in the Gulf region and strike oil, gas, electricity, and economic infrastructure there. The statement also said repeated US threats will only lead to the expansion of war in the region and beyond. (Jin10 Data APP) US domestic crude oil production for the week ending July 17 recorded its largest decline since the week ending January 30, 2026. US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories for the week ending July 17 dropped to their lowest since the week ending March 25, 1983. EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 2.01 million barrels to 412 million barrels, up 0.49%. (Jin10 Data APP) US refiners are raising diesel output to near record levels, reversing the seasonal trend. According to the US Department of Energy, refineries have averaged 5.3 million barrels per day of refined fuel oil (of which diesel is the main component) this month. If sustained, this would be the highest diesel production for July on record in the US and one of the highest months outside the winter heating season. Typically, diesel production peaks near year-end, but this year, due to severe global supply tightness, refiners have ramped up output months ahead of schedule. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended Reading:

SMM July 22 news: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%. As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic market: [State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App) [Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The project commissioned this time is currently the leading industrial tail-gas-to-hydrogen and resource-utilization demonstration project in south-west China. Leveraging surplus local coke oven coal gas resources from the steel industry, the project uses independently developed full-chain process technology to complete component separation, converting industrial tail gas that was originally used for combustion power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ per year of 99.999% fuel cell, battery-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21. Rising oil prices put pressure on the rates market, and the market’s assessment of the likelihood of US Fed rate hikes in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, Natixis’ Chief US Economist, believed that energy price fluctuations should drive US Fed decision-making. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged in July was 74.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 25.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged by September was 28.9%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 55.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 15.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, according to a Reuters poll: 78 of 104 economists (78 of 102 in last month’s poll) expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. On the macro front: Today, data including the UK June CPI m/m and the UK June Retail Price Index m/m were due to be released. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%. The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and the Houthi armed group announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, with traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunging 34% within two weeks. (Wallstreetcn) Data: US crude oil inventory increased last week. For the week ended July 17, API crude oil inventory was 2.603 million barrels (expectations: -500,000; previous: -564,000). For the week ended July 17, API gasoline inventory was -1.379 million barrels (expectations: -1.81 million; previous: -1.664 million). In addition, Iraq’s oil minister said that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements expected to be signed between Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and US enterprises would reach $200 billion. In a statement, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the recent escalation of hostile actions against energy infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz had heightened concerns over global energy supply security and increased uncertainty about the market outlook. The threats facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, have further intensified these concerns. However, he noted that the crude oil market is currently supported by several buffering factors. Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply through alternative shipping routes, and some crude continues to be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that crude exports from the Gulf region, while below the end-June high, remain significantly above the levels from March to mid-June. Additionally, increased exports from producers including the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China’s nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement of the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11, member countries have released about 290 million barrels into the market, and the ongoing release of emergency inventories is providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data App) Due to the contract rollover, NYMEX crude oil August futures will see floor trading conclude at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, and electronic trading end at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms' US oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please take extra care. Recommended Reading:

SMM July 21 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper rose 0.69%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.78%, SHFE lead edged up 0.06%, SHFE zinc fell 0.16%, and SHFE tin fell 0.21%. SHFE nickel fell 0.35%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.8%, while the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore fell 1.12%, rebar fell 0.77%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.7%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 2.73%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 2.23%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals nearly all moved lower. LME copper rose 0.86%. LME aluminum fell 0.96%, LME lead fell 0.53%, LME zinc fell 0.37%, LME tin fell 0.18%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%. Overnight, Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.17%, and COMEX silver rose 0.6%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract edged up 0.05%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract continued its upward momentum from the previous trading day, rising 1.13%. As of 7:03 AM on July 21, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Zheng Shanjie chairs private enterprise symposium: accelerate cultivation of new consumption growth points, promote smooth transition between old and new growth drivers] On July 20, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired a private enterprise symposium to communicate with five enterprises—Sanquan Food, HYC (Hua Xing Yuan Chuang), Yeahmobi, Galbot, and Feishang Technology—covering sectors such as food processing, industrial automation test equipment manufacturing, marketing services, humanoid robot R&D, and IoT services. The discussion focused on the H1 economic situation and H2 economic work. The NDRC will thoroughly implement the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, leverage the combined effects of existing and incremental policies, accelerate the cultivation of new consumption growth points, continue promoting the implementation of major projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan, promote a smooth transition between old and new growth drivers, accelerate scenario cultivation and openness, further build a high-quality data supply system, and push forward with the construction of a unified national market, continuously strengthening the endogenous driving forces of economic development and stimulating market vitality. [National teleconference on mid-year work progress for consumer goods trade-ins held in Beijing] On July 17, the Ministry of Commerce held a national teleconference on mid-year work progress for consumer goods trade-ins, summarizing the progress and results of policy implementation in H1 and deploying key tasks for the next step. Assistant Minister of Commerce Yuan Xiaoming attended and delivered a speech, and commerce departments from Hebei, Henan, Hubei, and Sichuan made exchange speeches. The meeting noted that since 2026, the Ministry of Commerce has earnestly implemented the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, working with various regions and relevant departments to solidly and orderly promote the implementation of the consumer goods trade-in policy, continuously expanding its coverage to benefit over 150 million person-times, effectively driving consumption upgrading and promoting resource recycling, achieving multiple policy effects. The meeting emphasized that all regions and departments should further enhance their political stance, establish and practice a correct view of performance, and meticulously implement the trade-in policy; further intensify efforts, strengthen inter-departmental coordination, widely publicize the policy, and broaden its coverage; and continue to enrich offline consumption scenarios, optimize the process for subsidy review and disbursement, making it easier for the public to participate in and benefit from the policy, thereby enhancing their sense of gain. (Ministry of Commerce website) [Just now, Wu Qing speaks out: fully maintain stable market operations] On the morning of July 21, Wu Qing, Party Secretary and Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, conducted a survey at a securities business department in Beijing and chaired an investor symposium, engaging in face-to-face exchanges with eight representatives of various investors, including large, medium, and small retail investors, to solicit opinions and suggestions on promoting stable and healthy development of the capital market. [China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association: Key monitored coal enterprises saw decreases in both ten-day production and sales in early July] The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association released its ten-day coal market dispatch report. In early July, due to stricter safety supervision, mine maintenance, and rainfall in producing areas, overall coal supply contracted somewhat, with key monitored coal enterprises seeing decreases in both ten-day production and sales. Looking at demand by sector: In the power sector, increased rainfall boosted hydropower generation, and combined with increased new energy output, thermal power generation and power plant coal consumption pulled back. The steel industry showed clear off-season characteristics, with weak demand; pig iron production and coal consumption by key monitored coke and steel enterprises were below levels seen in the same period last year. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index continued its upward momentum from the previous two trading days, rising another 0.21% to 100.97. Recurring US-Iran tensions drove wild swings in oil prices, which intensified market concerns about inflation and raised expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Fed’s Hammack stated that inflation is too high and broad-based, and persistently high inflation is a greater concern. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 15.5%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 36%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 55.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 8.9%. (Jinshi Data APP) The spread between 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields will narrow further in the coming months, and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a full inversion of the yield curve, according to Capital Economics. "One reason for this difference is that short-term real rate expectations have risen more than long-term real rate expectations, likely reflecting strong economic data," Capital Economics also expects that the 2-year and 10-year yield curve will flatten further as investors price in additional rate hikes. "We forecast the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points over the next year, compared to the 40 basis points currently priced in by markets," they said. (Jinshi Data APP) Macro Front: Today, data releases include Switzerland's June trade balance, the UK's May ILO unemployment rate (3-month), UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany's July ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's July ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending July 4, among others. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures contracts continued their upward momentum from the previous trading day, with WTI oil rising 0.78% and Brent oil rising 0.81%. The oil market experienced significant swings on Monday. The ninth round of bombing by Iran pushed oil prices initially higher, but subsequent diplomatic statements regarding a 10-day ceasefire negotiation caused prices to pull back. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump hinted that the US military would launch a tough retaliation against Iran. However, the Trump administration has not completely ruled out seeking a diplomatic solution. US Secretary of State Rubio stated in an interview on the evening of the 19th that the Trump administration "remains open to diplomatic solutions." According to Xinhua, a senior Iranian official said that mediators in the US-Iran talks have proposed an initiative to Iran aimed at de-escalating the current situation, suggesting a 10-day ceasefire to seek the resumption of the memorandum of understanding reached between the two nations last month. However, a Wallstreetcn article pointed out that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz had nearly stalled, with a Greek shipowner reporting that two oil tankers had been attacked. Data from the monitoring website Hormuz Strait Monitor shows that transits on July 20 were around 12 vessels per day, a plunge of over 89% from the pre-conflict daily average of 110 vessels, severely restricting the shipment of crude oil and LNG. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, according to Bloomberg, as the US continues to strike Iran, vessels in the Strait of Hormuz are being targeted by Iran, bringing traffic in this vital waterway to a near standstill on Monday. Ship tracking data showed a Marshall Islands-flagged bulk carrier was one of the few vessels apparently attempting to transit the strait, switching off its transponder as it moved from the Persian Gulf toward Omani waters near the strait. An LPG carrier flagged as part of the "dark fleet" involved in Iranian exports also appeared to head toward the strait. Another bulk carrier registered in the Marshall Islands began emitting signals from the Gulf of Oman after previously indicating it was in the Persian Gulf on Sunday morning, suggesting it had transited the Strait of Hormuz with its transponder switched off. (Bloomberg)