The Southeast Asian secondary aluminum market remained broadly stable this week. Aluminum scrap prices moved within a narrow range, while ADC12 domestic prices were largely unchanged and FOB offers edged higher on firm raw material costs. Meanwhile, imported aluminum scrap prices in China continued to rebound as import margins improved, with several cargoes reportedly scheduled to arrive in mid-August, providing additional support to market sentiment.

The SEA secondary aluminum market remained mixed this week. Aluminum scrap prices were largely stable, while ADC12 remained under pressure due to weak downstream demand. Buying activity stayed cautious, although UBC scrap held firm on tighter supply and steady recycling demand. Market attention also shifted to the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), with growing focus on carbon reporting, recycled content, and supply chain traceability as compliance requirements continue to evolve.

Southeast Asia's aluminum scrap market rebounded this week, with key grades in Malaysia and Thailand rising, while ADC12 prices softened amid weak downstream demand. Despite lower LME aluminum prices, tight scrap supply kept offers firm. Sentiment improved slightly, but buying remained need-based. Attention also shifted to US Section 232 developments and their potential impact on trade flows and regional supply.

In H1, the industry showed distinct characteristics: upstream raw material imports experienced a mix of hot and cold trends, while mid-and downstream aluminum processing product exports saw explosive growth. Diverging domestic and overseas demand, shifting overseas manufacturing orders, and changes in the overseas raw material supply landscape are jointly reshaping the trade pattern of China's aluminum industry chain.

[SMM Analysis]Divergent Trends in H1 Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports: Price Spreads Boost Exports While Inverted Profits Drag Down Imports

The Southeast Asian secondary aluminum market remained weak this week, with aluminum scrap and ADC12 prices under pressure due to sluggish downstream demand. Lower overseas prices improved China's import window, although spot trading remained limited. Malaysia's Talon prices edged higher on tighter supply, while Thailand's UBC prices weakened. SMM expects the market to remain range-bound, with attention focused on LME aluminum prices, import margins, scrap policies, and demand recovery.

This week, the Southeast Asian secondary aluminum market overall remained in the doldrums, with aluminum scrap and ADC12 prices remaining under pressure. As LME aluminum prices continued to consolidate on a subdued note, downstream consumption recovery was slow, market purchases were still mainly for rigid demand, and the overall trading atmosphere was mediocre. Meanwhile, overseas quotes continued to pull back, which improved China’s import profitability from earlier levels. Some Southeast Asian resources flowed back into the Chinese market, but spot transactions still failed to show a significant increase in volume.

[Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Persist, Geopolitical Premiums Underpin Aluminum Prices' Bottom Resilience] According to comprehensive forecasts, aluminum prices will continue to consolidate on a strong note and encounter resistance in the short term.

The overseas secondary aluminum market shifted from supply-driven gains to demand-led corrections in H1 as geopolitical risks eased and downstream demand remained weak. At the same time, the UAE, the EU and the US introduced measures to strengthen domestic scrap resource management, reinforcing aluminum scrap's strategic role in global supply chains. In H2, SMM expects demand recovery to be the key driver of prices, while policy will continue to shape trade flows and premium scrap availability.

[Geopolitical Premium Materializes in Short Term, Aluminum Price Rise Faces Later Pressure] Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices will consolidate on a strong note and encounter resistance.