As voices from aluminium associations across US trade-allied nations grow louder, one consensus is becoming clear that the United States’ decision to increase tariffs on aluminium imports to 50 per cent is unlikely to benefit its global partners.

LME 3M aluminium prices came under pressure after the U.S. tariff announcement on 2 April, driven by concerns over weakening global demand and rising trade uncertainty. High tariffs are expected to disrupt Southeast Asia’s exports of aluminium products to the U.S., dampening primary aluminium consumption. Risk-off sentiment also led to long liquidation, further weighing on prices.

After an initial aggressive uptick at the beginning of March, the premium for Japanese aluminium’s outbound trade during the second Quarter of 2025 (April to June) has reportedly crashed to USD 182 per tonne, which is clearly a 20 per cent decrease from the past quarter (Q1’25), reveals six sources involved in the pricing discussions.

The MJP aluminium premium has surged to $245–260 per tonne for Q2 2025, far exceeding Japan’s domestic spot price and raising concerns about its role as Asia’s benchmark. Despite this, buyers continue accepting higher premiums to secure stable supply, as producers prioritize shipments to higher-paying markets like the U.S. and Europe. With Japan’s aluminium imports declining, its influence in price negotiations has weakened, shifting power to global suppliers. While MJP is still widely used, its relevance is being questioned as Southeast Asia’s aluminium market grows, potentially paving the way for a more regionally representative pricing model.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,460.5/mt, initially reaching a high of $10,481/mt and hitting a session low of $10,386.5/mt.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2407 aluminum contract opened at 21,350 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 21,970 yuan/mt and a low of 21,350 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,895 yuan/mt, up 590 yuan/mt, an increase of 2.77%.

In the week, the macro fundamental was intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, causing significant fluctuations in aluminum prices.

Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $10,382/mt, hitting a session low of $10,316.5/mt before closing at $10,334/mt, a decrease of 0.24%.

On last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE 2407 aluminum contract opened at 20,975 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 21,085 yuan/mt and a low of 20,930 yuan/mt, and closed at 21,015 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt or 0.6%.

LME aluminium opened at US$2,586 per tonne in the previous trading day, with its low and high at US$2,582 per tonne and US$2,623 per tonne, respectively, before closing at US$2,621 per tonne, up US$33 per tonne or 1.28 per cent.