[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Expectations Shifted Again, SHFE Tin Contract Declined in a Stepwise Pattern During the Morning Session]

SMM Nickel News, April 13: Macro and market news: (1) Trump: A blockade will be imposed on all ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, ships paying transit fees to Iran in international waters will be intercepted, and Iranian mines laid in the strait will be cleared. Apart from the nuclear issue, the US and Iran have "reached agreement on most issues." (2) According to US officials and informed sources, President Trump and his advisors are considering resuming limited military strikes against Iran while imposing a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to break the deadlock in peace negotiations. Spot market: On April 13, SMM #1 refined nickel prices fell 400 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 134,000 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to continue fluctuating within the 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt range, supported below by cost underpinning from rising ore and sulfur prices, and capped above by high global inventory (LME inventory above 280,000 mt, continued social inventory buildup in China) and sluggish downstream demand recovery.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $12,744/mt, dipping to $12,642/mt early in the session. The price center then fluctuated upward to a high of $12,928/mt before fluctuating downward to finally close at $12,857/mt, up 1.27%, with trading volume at 22,000 lots and open interest at 293,000 lots, down 4,028 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 99,200 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward early in the session to reach 99,750 yuan/mt, then the price center gradually shifted lower to a low of 99,090 yuan/mt, followed by wild swings before finally closing at 99,310 yuan/mt, up 1.04%, with trading volume at 45,000 lots and open interest at 171,700 lots, down 2,724 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

[Solid Geopolitical Support, Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs] Overall, from a macro perspective, restricted strait transit and risks of conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, above-expectation aluminum ingot inventory buildup in China, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation driven by recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably weighed on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at highs.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,690 yuan/mt, briefly rising to a high of 23,725 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session. Bears then increased their open interest, and SHFE zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of 23,570 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately settling down at 23,585 yuan/mt, a decline of 30 yuan/mt or 0.35%. Trading volume fell to 29,862 lots, while open interest increased by 951 lots to 77,560 lots.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: U.S.-Iran Tensions Fluctuate, LME Zinc Center Edges Up] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,318/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc fluctuated downward and hit a low of $3,297/mt during the night session. Subsequently, bulls increased open interest, and the LME zinc center shifted upward, touching a high of $3,338/mt near the end of the session, ultimately closing with a gain at $3,335/mt, up $10/mt, a rise of 0.3%. Trading volume increased to 8,912 lots, and open interest rose by 772 lots to 213,000 lots.

SMM April 13: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,926/mt, touched a high of $1,948/mt during the Asian session before declining to briefly test a low of $1,915/mt. It then moved sideways during the European session, ultimately closing at $1,930.5/mt, up 0.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened high at 16,690 yuan/mt. After the opening, bears increased positions and SHFE lead fluctuated downward, touching a low of 16,580 yuan/mt near the close, ultimately settling at 16,585 yuan/mt, down 0.6%. Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead entered the delivery week, suppliers relocated inventory and shipped to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, which may put lead prices under pressure. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the fulfillment of maintenance plans by secondary lead enterprises. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the potential to rebound after testing lows. Data source disclaimer: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,996.5/mt, touched a high of $1,998.5/mt during the Asian session before moving downward; during the European session, it first rose then fell, with a late-session dive to a low of $1,970/mt, ultimately closing at $1,984/mt, down 0.53%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2604 contract opened at 16,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of 16,765 yuan/mt in early trading before weakening, touched a low of 16,670 yuan/mt in late trading, and ultimately closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. On the macro front: Last Friday, the market awaited the results of US-Iran negotiations, and Israel had sought to negotiate with Lebanon, which brought hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said the US would not allow Iran to make money by selling oil. An Iranian oil ministry official said the damaged refineries were expected to restore at least 70% of their previous capacity within one to two months. Li Qiang chaired a symposium on the economic situation with experts and entrepreneurs. The second batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bonds this year to support trade-in policies for consumer goods was recently disbursed. NBS: CPI rose 1.0% YoY in March, and PPI turned from a YoY decline to an increase. Shanghai Stock Exchange: the price change limit for risk-warning stocks on the main board was adjusted from 5% to 10%. : In the Shanghai market, Hongli lead was quoted at 16,700-16,800 yuan/mt, quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2605 contract. Last Friday, SHFE lead continued to fluctuate downward, and due to limited circulating cargoes in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, suppliers held prices firm and shipped at premiums. Meanwhile, quotations for cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were chaotic, with large price spreads between high and low prices in north China, while south China generally shipped at discounts. Mainstream production areas quoted at discounts of 60 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters shipped following the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, among which tax-exclusive cargoes saw more shipments than tax-inclusive ones. In addition, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment with few inquiries, and some made just-in-time procurement. The spot market showed no signs of improvement in transactions for the time being. Inventory: On April 10, LME lead inventory decreased by 550 mt to 278,225 mt. As of April 9, SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory pulled back slightly. Lead price forecast for today: Weakening lead consumption in China and inflows of imported lead became the main factors dragging down lead prices. As SHFE lead enters the delivery week, suppliers are transferring inventory and shipping to delivery warehouses, converting it into visible inventory, and lead prices may come under pressure and weaken. At the same time, we need to monitor whether secondary lead enterprises fulfill their maintenance plans. If production cuts proceed as scheduled, lead prices may have the possibility of bottoming out and rebounding. Data Source Disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

India's Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited (LMEL) formed a joint venture with the US-based Virtus Group earlier this month to acquire CHEMAF, a mining company in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and plans to bring its share of cobalt resources from the Congo mines back to India. As the joint venture includes a US partner, the specific allocation ratio will be determined in accordance with the intergovernmental agreement between India and the United States. B Prabhakaran, Managing Director of LMEL, stated that the mines are expected to start production within the current fiscal year, with an initial planned annual output of 20,000 tonnes of cobalt and 60,000 tonnes of copper.

Nguyen Thu Lan at Commerzbank noted that copper, once among the weakest-performing metals under pressure from rising London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories and mixed supply side news, has now transformed into one of the best-performing metals.Potential inventory sell-offs and the restart of the Panama mine could suppress price gains in the short term, but the sharp decline in Chilean production suggests that once concerns about economic growth ease, supply worries could dominate, supporting copper prices higher over the longer term.Nguyen said: "Copper is one of the best-performing metals. On the one hand, this can be attributed to copper being viewed as a highly cyclical metal.