【SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash Update】Inventory side, affected by higher copper prices, enterprises became more cautious in raw material procurement, and raw material inventory pulled back; downstream pick-up pace was relatively slow, with enterprises basically balancing production and sales, and finished product inventories edging down slightly. Next week, the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises is expected to be stable with a slight decline, and SMM expects the operating rate to pull back MoM to 82.58%.

Recently, construction officially began on the high-end rare earth aluminum alloy project in the Baotou Jinshan Economic Development Zone, with a total investment of approximately 500 million yuan and annual output of 100,000 mt. The project will be advanced in an orderly manner in two phases. Phase I will build a 30,000 mt high-end rare earth aluminum alloy production line, focusing on technology R&D and capacity release to rapidly achieve scaled-up production. Phase II will expand capacity by 70,000 mt, further extend, supplement, and strengthen the industrial chain, optimize the product mix, increase added value, and support Guyang in building a distinctive high-end rare earth aluminum alloy industrial cluster.

On March 29, the groundbreaking ceremony was held for the non-production supporting facilities of the 91,000 mt high-performance aluminum alloy cast-rolled coil project undertaken by China Second Metallurgical Group. This marked the official launch of the project’s construction and its entry into the substantive construction phase.

An investor asked on the interactive platform: What is the commissioning status of the Anhui Phase II project and the subsequent commissioning plan? On April 1, Shunbo Alloy stated that the Anhui Phase II project planned an annual production project of 630,000 mt of low-carbon, environmentally friendly aluminum alloy slab ingots and an annual production project of 500,000 mt of green, recycled, high-performance aluminum plate/sheet and strip. According to the Prospectus, from 2026 to 2028, the sales volume of aluminum plate/sheet and strip is expected to reach 120,000 mt, 240,000 mt, and 400,000 mt, respectively. The specific situation is subject to the company’s subsequent relevant announcements.

Recently, Wanzhou, Chongqing accelerated the construction of a red mud comprehensive utilization project. Some equipment had already been installed, and the project was expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of June this year. Reportedly, the project was one of three subprojects under an aluminum semis comprehensive utilization project with a total investment of 5.2 billion yuan. Covering about 450 mu, the project used industrial solid waste such as red mud generated from alumina production by Chongqing Jiulong Wanbo New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. as raw material, adopted the rotary kiln sintering process, and produced 1.5 million mt of high-alumina clinker annually, promoting resource recycling and achieving cost reduction, efficiency improvement.

Case Details September 18, 2025 Vietnam’s Trade Remedies Authority issued an announcement stating that, on September 10, 2025, a Vietnamese producer filed an application for an anti-circumvention investigation into HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China with a width greater than 1,880 mm and less than 2,300 mm. October 27, 2025 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3176/QD-BCT, stating that, upon application by a Vietnamese producer, it had initiated an anti-circumvention investigation in the anti-dumping case concerning HRC (Vietnamese: phẩm thép cán nóng) originating in China, to examine whether the products under investigation had been slightly modified into HRC with a width exceeding 1,880 mm and less than or equal to 2,300 mm for export to Vietnam in order to evade anti-dumping duties. The announcement took effect on the date of issuance. April 2, 2026 Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade temporarily applied anti-circumvention trade remedy measures to certain hot-rolled steel plate products originating in the People’s Republic of China. The Vietnamese tariff codes of the products under investigation are 7208.25.00, 7208.26.00, 7208.27.19, 7208.27.99, 7208.36.00, 7208.37.00, 7208.38.00, 7208.39.20, 7208.39.40, 7208.39.90, 7208.52.00, 7208.53.00, 7208.54.90, 7208.90.90, 7211.14.15, 7211.14.16, 7211.14.19, 7211.19.13, 7211.19.19, 7211.90.12, 7211.90.19, 7225.30.90, 7225.40.90, 7225.99.90, 7226.91.10, and 7226.91.90. All producers and export enterprises of the People’s Republic of China are subject to an anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 Products not subject to the temporary anti-circumvention trade remedy measures include: hot-rolled steel plate products with carbon content (by weight) > 0.30%; hot-rolled steel plate products in coil form with thickness ≥10 mm; hot-rolled steel plate products formally excluded from the scope of anti-dumping duties pursuant to Decision No. 1959/QĐ-BCT dated July 4, 2025; and steel plate products of grades BW450, BS700MCK2, AG700, and LG700T. This decision will take effect 15 days after the date of issuance. From Anti-Dumping to Anti-Circumvention: What Changed in the Export Data? Previously, Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s hot-rolled coil products applied only to products with a width not exceeding 1,880 mm, leading many Chinese exporters to evade tariffs by “slightly adjusting” product specifications into the wider 1,880-2,300 mm range. This anti-circumvention investigation and the subsequent duty decision were intended to completely close this loophole. Under the new rules, hot-rolled steel coils with widths between 1,880 mm and 2,300 mm will also be included in the taxable scope and be subject to the same anti-dumping duty rate of 27.83 as the original products. Figure 1 Relationship Between Total HRC Exports to Vietnam and Exports of Products Involved in the Anti-Circumvention Case It can be seen that before the anti-dumping case was filed, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam mainly consisted of conventional-width coils below 1,880-2,300 mm. This was mainly because producing wide hot-rolled products above 2 meters requires special production lines, and the China steel mills capable of exporting such products were highly concentrated, mainly large steel enterprises such as Baowu, Angang, Bensteel Group, and WISCO, making them non-mainstream export products. After the preliminary anti-dumping ruling, the proportion of wide coils gradually increased. Another set of data shows the following . First, if the preliminary anti-dumping ruling is taken as the time period, China’s HRC exports to Vietnam from January to June of that year had already plunged 46 YoY to 2.3165 million mt, while exports of wide coils surged 815 YoY to 1.2964 million mt. This was also the main support for why the decline in the average exports of China’s HRC to Vietnam was not obvious during the period from the preliminary anti-dumping ruling to the filing of the anti-circumvention case. Second, if the filing of the anti-circumvention case is taken as the time period, as of December 2025 , China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 1.0797 million mt, with a monthly average of 529,900 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 627,000 mt, accounting for 58.08. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 226,300 mt. Furthermore, if 2026 is taken as the time period, because the market had previously expected anti-circumvention measures to be implemented in December, some export traders still conducted transactions before then, so the data for November-December 2025 cannot fully reflect the actual reduction in export volumes caused by concerns over the confirmation of anti-circumvention measures. Since the beginning of 2026, China’s total HRC exports to Vietnam were 229,700 mt, with a monthly average of 114,800 mt; exports of products involved in the anti-circumvention case totaled 131,300 mt, accounting for 57.17. In other words, in an extreme scenario, the establishment of anti-circumvention measures would reduce the monthly average of China’s HRC exports to Vietnam to 49,200 mt, representing a decline of 3,789 YoY compared with the 2025 monthly average export volume. Impact of Anti-Circumvention Measures It is thus evident that the further implementation of anti-circumvention measures will further narrow the channel for China’s hot-rolled products to be exported to Vietnam. Last year, Vietnam was still the largest market for China’s hot-rolled exports, but the export landscape may change significantly in the future as a result of this incident. For China’s export enterprises, they should seize the remaining 15-day “breathing space” and accelerate shipments of orders on hand. In the long run, they need to proactively adjust their product mix and pay more attention to export opportunities for high-end products.

On March 27, 2026, the European Commission issued a notice stating that, following an application submitted by the EU industry association European Aluminium on December 19, 2025, it initiated the first anti-dumping sunset review investigation into aluminum extrusions originating in China to examine whether the dumping of the products concerned and the injury caused to the EU domestic industry would continue or recur if the current anti-dumping measures were repealed. The EU CN (Combined Nomenclature) codes of the products concerned were ex76041010, ex76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990, ex76081000, 76082081, 76082089, and ex76109090 (TARIC codes 7604101011, 7604109011, 7604109025, 7604109080, 7608100011, 7608100080, and 7610909010).

SMM News on April 3: As of April 2, finished product inventories of secondary lead stood at 14,000 mt, an increase of 2,200 mt from March 26. Rising lead prices prompted suppliers to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, while downstream battery plants stayed on the sidelines amid high-priced cargoes and mainly picked up goods under long-term contracts; coupled with replenishment from imported crude lead, smelters' finished product inventories accumulated. Next week, with secondary lead production expected to improve and the off-season approaching, downstream procurement is likely to remain weak, and inventories are expected to continue rising. > Subscribe to View Historical SMM Metal Spot Prices

The CPCA said today that in China’s passenger vehicle market, in February 2026, the wholesale sales of producers with new energy sales of more than 10,000 units accounted for 93% of total passenger NEV sales for the month. According to preliminary compiled data for March, the March sales of these enterprises with February new energy sales of more than 10,000 units reached 990,000 units. At present, sales figures for most producers had basically been locked in at a broad level. Some producers whose wholesale volumes were relatively low in February due to the Chinese New Year factor performed very well in March. Therefore, based on last month’s structural mix combined with this month’s data, March nationwide passenger NEV wholesale sales were estimated at 1.12 million units. In summary, based on preliminary monthly CPCA data: nationwide passenger vehicle producers’ new energy wholesale sales in March 2026 were estimated at 1.12 million units, flat YoY and up 55% MoM from February.

During the week, the center of copper prices rebounded somewhat. Coupled with the continued weakening in home appliance demand, new orders pulled back by 8.65 percentage points, and the operating rate of machines in the enamelled wire industry declined as expected to 87.8%.