[SMM Daily Coking Coal and Coke Review] Coking Coal Market: Linfen low-sulphur coking coal quoted at 2,050 yuan/mt. Regarding coking coal, with strict safety supervision in Shanxi, coal mine production resumptions are slow, making it difficult for coking coal supply to improve. Steel mill profits are declining, wait-and-see sentiment in the market is growing, and coal mine shipments are average. However, the supply-demand fundamentals of coking coal remain unchanged, and miners are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. In the short term, the coking coal market may consolidate. Coke Market: The nationwide average price of quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke (dry quenching) is 2,090 yuan/mt. In terms of supply, after nine rounds of price increases, coke producers have seen some recovery in profits, and their operating rates remain relatively stable. On the demand side, blast furnace production at steel mills is currently at a relatively high load, but the steel market has entered the traditional off-season, end-user transactions are weakening, profit pressure is mounting, and steel mills are increasingly resistant to consecutive coke price hikes. Overall, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market is beginning to ease, but cost support remains. In the short term, the coke market is likely to be generally stable with a slight rise. [SMM Steel]

02 July 2026 Precious metals ended a record FY25/26 on a soft footing, with the USD gold price falling by close to 15% between March and June, its worst quarterly performance in more than a decade. This price fall—which began at the end of January—was caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar, a sharp rise in bond yields, a complete 180 from the market as it relates to interest rate expectations (with rate hikes in the United States now priced in), liquidity needs caused by the U.S.-Iran war, and a washout of the extreme bullishness and speculation that had crept into the gold and silver market earlier this year. There was also a huge surge in the stock market between March and early June (the S&P 500 was up over 20% during this period) as euphoria took over any tech- or AI-related trades. In the short-term at least, this diminished the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. While the pullback has been painful for some, it was certainly not unexpected—and was in many ways necessary, as long-term bull markets in any asset classes do require periodic consolidations. Importantly, the pullback has likely done its worst in terms of performance and price falls. It has also totally reset sentiment in the precious metal market, with euphoria replaced by fear and/or apathy—typically the kind of market conditions that reward buyers. It is also worth pointing out that despite the sell-off over the past five months, both gold and silver ended the financial year delivering strong gains for Australian investors, with the AUD gold price rising by 16%, while silver was up by over 50%. Take a longer-term view and the results are even more impressive, with the gold price up by more than 100% since June 2023. Silver has rallied by close to 150% over the same period, with the two precious metals strongly outperforming traditional assets over this period. The strong rally over the past three years has been driven by multiple factors, including: Strong Central Bank Buying : Central banks bought 3,000 tonnes of gold between 2003 and 2025, with a further 243 tonnes of buying in Q1 2026. Surveys of central bankers suggest holdings will continue to grow, with gold set to play a more important role as a reserve asset in the decade ahead. ETF Inflows in 2025: ETF holders were substantial net sellers between 2021 and 2024, with net sales each year and a total of 544 tonnes coming out of these products in that period. The tide turned from late 2024 onward, with almost 1,000 tonnes of inflows seen in the last 18 months. Surge in Demand for Retail Bars and Coins : Global bar and coin demand was 42% higher year-on-year in Q1 2026, while buying from this segment of the market topped 1,400 tonnes in 2025 (up 16% on 2024). A longer-term view is even more eye-opening, with gold bar and coin buying from 2023-2025 inclusive topping 3,800 tonnes (more than 30% of all mine output in that period). That level of buying is 13% higher than we saw in the three-year window from 2020-2022 inclusive, a period that included the Covid-19 pandemic. Source: World Gold Council Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends When you factor in dollar-based spending on bars and coins—with gold prices substantially higher in the 2023-2026 window vs the 2020-2023 window—the result is even more impressive. Outlook For 2026/27 Financial Year ABC Bullion remains optimistic on the outlook for bullion this year, with the huge pullback that we have seen in the last five months setting a base from which the long-term bull market can resume. The challenges posed by overvaluation assets remain unresolved, with the S&P 500 starting this new financial year trading above 40-times cyclically adjusted earnings. Inflation remains at problematic levels, with no easy way to use interest rates to bring it down, given the debt and deficit levels seen across the developed world, headlined by the United States, which will soon clock over USD $40 trillion in debt. I can personally remember when that number was closer to USD $10 trillion when the Global Financial Crisis hit. Heightened geopolitical conflict will be with us for the foreseeable future, creating permanent uncertainty as it relates to energy security and the potential for commodity price shocks. Last but not least, Western investors remain very lightly exposed to genuine safe-haven assets that can help protect their portfolio and provide a source of growth during otherwise challenging periods. Government bonds—which are likely to be a source of return-free risk, rather than risk-free return—will likely continue to drag on investor portfolios, with physical gold the only asset that has the market size, the liquidity and the risk/return profile to fill that gap. With a textbook correction now played out, sentiment readings that have historically been followed by an average 16% gain in the year that followed, and a 100% win-rate (data thanks to Sentiment Trader ), now is a great time to be looking to add more bullion to a portfolio. Until next time. Source： https://www.abcbullion.com/insights/market-updates/gold-set-for-a-strong-rally-as-new-financial-year-begins

South Africa's global chrome ore exports eased marginally in May 2026 to 2.43 million mt, down 1.82% month-on-month from 2.47 million mt in April, but still 43.08% higher than a year earlier. High-carbon ferrochrome (HC FeCr) exports moved in the opposite direction, rising 5.66% MoM to 123,795 mt, though volumes remained 48.76% below May 2025.

Curated by Copilot Mid-year price outlook: WGC projects gold to hover near $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside if macro or geopolitical risks worsen. Correction from record: Prices fell over 25% from January’s $5,600 peak due to a strong dollar, Fed hike fears, and easing Iran tensions. Supportive demand factors: Central bank purchases and long-term investor participation may limit downside and sustain gold's role as a strategic asset. WGC forecasts gold stability with potential for sharp upside The World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook projects gold trading within 5% of $4,100/oz in H2 2026 under current macro conditions. Scenario analysis suggests a climb toward $4,500 is possible, and only a strong, clear catalyst could push prices sustainably to $5,000. Key upside drivers include worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a dovish turn in Fed policy, and increased long-term investor participation. Newsable Asianet News + 1 From January's record high to mid-year correction Gold has dropped more than 25% from its January 2026 record of $5,602, with London spot prices down over 33% from their peak. The reversal followed a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, alongside reduced safe-haven demand after US-Iran ceasefire developments. Analysts view the pullback as a corrective consolidation rather than a structural bear market, with technical support seen near $3,900 and $3,600. The Financial Express + 1 At current levels, the headwinds and tailwinds are unusually balanced. Every major gold bull run has seen a 30–40% correction before the next leg higher, and the current decline from January’s peak sits within that range. Kaynat Chainwala,AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities The Financial Express Gold rallies on softer U.S. labour data Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth in June reduced market bets on a September Fed rate hike, helping gold secure its first weekly gain in five weeks. The softer labour data also pressured the US dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Central banks added 41 tonnes to reserves in May, reinforcing long-term demand support despite recent volatility. The Economic Times + 2 Why the forecast matters for investors now For investors, the WGC’s range-bound outlook suggests patience and phased accumulation strategies amid uncertainty over Fed policy and dollar strength. Historical patterns show that major gold bull runs often see 30–40% corrections before resuming upward, aligning with the current decline. In India, domestic prices remain supported by rupee weakness and higher import duties, cushioning global downside and offering relative stability. The Financial Express + 2 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/wgc-sees-gold-steady-near-4-100-in-h2-upside-if-risks-rise

Brazil's foreign and trade ministries have issued a joint statement criticizing the EU's new steel tariff-rate quota system as unilateral protectionism that could intensify global steel trade tensions. The government stated the new measures may limit Brazil's access to an important long-term export market while failing to address global steel overcapacity, emphasizing the issue should be handled through international and multilateral cooperation. Brazil had previously requested GATT Article XXVIII compensation for potential trade losses from the new system, but the two sides failed to reach an agreement.

The US announced it will not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and will initiate a 10-year transition period to gradually phase out the trade pact. The decision follows a six-year review of the North American free trade framework, with the US seeking changes to bring more manufacturing jobs back and reduce trade deficits. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mexico hopes to address US concerns over employment and trade imbalances, but differences remain on stricter auto rules of origin. Canada's Dominic LeBlanc said Canada will continue discussions with the US on tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber. All parties agreed continued dialogue remains important.

July 5, 2026 As of July 3, 2026, by Florian Grummes Since the end of January, precious metal prices have been in a pronounced correction phase. Following the increasing downward momentum of the past four weeks—which culminated in an escalation and ultimately a clearly recognizable final capitulation—there are now growing signs that precious metal prices are regaining their footing and are on the verge of a major recovery. On the gold market , the break below the key support zone around $4,400 since early June led to an accelerated sell-off , which recently pushed prices down three times to the $3,940–$3,960 range. Apparently, as prices dipped just below $4,000, more buyers returned to the market, allowing the gold price to recover significantly—by as much as $250—over the past two trading days. Short Squeeze Following Price Plunge Silver exhibited an even more pronounced pattern characterized by high volatility : The surprisingly dynamic, yet unsustainable, price surge to $89.37 in the first half of May was followed by an even more severe sell-off. Within six weeks, the price fell sharply, dropping by 29.5% to $55.59. Unlike gold, however, the low of June 24 has not been breached in the past nine days, despite all efforts by the bears. Instead, the short squeeze in the silver market has so far led to a rebound of 13.1%. Early-summer bottom taking shape We have pointed out several times in recent weeks that the combination of capitulation by weak hands (high gold ETF sales), favorable seasonality starting in July, increasingly fearful sentiment, and a completely oversold technical market should bring about an early-summer bottom. Accordingly, the odds are now good that the gold price can recover toward its 50- and 200-day moving averages in the range around $4,500. For the silver price, levels around $70 would at least be conceivable. Market Correction and Further Shift Toward the East In any case, the five-month price decline in precious metals appears to have halted for the time being. While silver has more than halved in price since its high at the end of January, Western bullion banks used the period of weakness to systematically reduce risk in the futures markets: short positions were significantly reduced, and open positions were scaled back. However, the geopolitical cost of this development is considerable. China specifically capitalized on the low prices and accumulated large quantities of physical metal—several hundred metric tons of gold and an estimated up to 2,500 metric tons of silver. This market correction was accompanied by a decline in open interest to its lowest level in decades, as well as additional price losses in the wake of the recent COMEX collapse. The bottom line is that a structural shift is continuing: While the West is cleaning up its books, physical precious metals are increasingly finding their way into strong hands in the East. Summer Rally: Proceed with Caution Depending on how the anticipated summer rally unfolds and how the significantly overbought stock markets—which are vulnerable to a correction, particularly the parabolically rising semiconductor sector—behave in the meantime, even higher price targets for gold and silver are certainly conceivable by fall. For now, however, we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves; instead, we intend to reassess the situation step by step and, when in doubt, would rather be pleasantly surprised. Silver in USD – Support around $55 has held Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of July 3, 2026. © GOLD.DE Starting from the new all-time high of $121.67 on January 29, 2026, the silver price has so far fallen back in three distinct downward waves to its most recent low of $55.59. This has corrected nearly the entire upward move since the breakout above the $50 mark last fall. However, the broad range between $45 and $55—at the center of which lies the previous decades-long high of $50—should provide extremely robust support and has so far withstood its first stress test. Oversold and Ready for a Rebound Now that silver has returned to this range in a heavily oversold state, the chances of a significant rebound are very good. Ideally, the entire correction over the past five months can be interpreted as a falling wedge, which could set the stage for a strong upward breakout in the medium term. At the same time, the path upward is littered with significant resistance levels. A key factor in the coming weeks will be a push toward the prominent resistance zone around $70. This zone converges the slightly rising 200-day moving average ($69.83), the falling 50-day moving average ($71.32), and a dominant downtrend line. Patience Rather Than Momentum However, an initial bounce off the moving averages is very likely, and silver is likely to need considerably more time to build new, sustainable upward momentum. Recovery with Clear Price Targets In the short term, however, the signals pointing to an impending major recovery clearly predominate. The 38.2% retracement of the downtrend since mid-May, at around $68.50, can be viewed as a minimum target. If, following a temporary pullback, a breakout above the moving averages occurs, price targets in the range of $75 to $78 will come into focus. Overall, there are increasing signs that precious metals have formed a solid bottom following the turmoil of recent weeks and that the summer rally has already begun. Conclusion: Silver – Signs of a Summer Rally Are Emerging Recent price movements in the precious metals markets suggest that the five-month correction phase may have reached its preliminary low. In recent weeks, both gold and silver have exhibited the combination of oversold conditions, extreme sentiment, and capitulation signals that often marks the transition from a downtrend to a recovery phase. In particular, the strong short squeeze of the last two days suggests that in the coming weeks or over the next one to three months, buyers will regain control of price movements . Now that the breakout zone around $55 has held, the silver price has considerable potential for recovery given the overall sharp sell-off. Our first moderate price target for the summer rally is approximately $70. Depending on how the price develops, higher targets are also conceivable. However, the fragile situation surrounding the AI and data center boom, as well as the increasingly precarious outlook for the semiconductor sector, lead us to remain deliberately cautious. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-and-gold-ahead-of-the-summer-rally-is-the-rally-about-to-begin

In July, the planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt from June's actual production, a decrease of 4.98%. Average daily output of rebar in July stood at 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. In July, the planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt from June's actual production, an increase of 0.59%. However, the average daily output of wire rod in July was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. In July, the sample steel mills' long product export schedule reached 653,000 mt, down 41,000 mt MoM. Among this, the steel billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

Recently, China's lead prices have continued to weaken, with secondary smelters generally caught in a double dilemma of processing losses and a shortage of scrap battery raw materials. The SMM survey of production cuts and resumption plans at secondary lead smelters nationwide from June to July clearly reflects the current pressure on the industry. I. June Secondary Lead: Significant polarization among enterprises, slight overall increase In June 2026, smelter operations across regions polarized: Core logic of production cuts: Multiple enterprises in east China (A/C/D/F), north China (I), and south China (K/L) proactively reduced loads or suspended production due to falling lead prices, which caused losses on production, and insufficient scrap battery recycling volumes. A single smelter in these areas cut output by as much as 9,000 mt; other scattered enterprises across other regions cut an additional 4,700 mt. Increase offset by production resumptions: Smelters in east China (B/E), central China (G/H), north China (J), and northwest China (M) resumed production after maintenance and raised output using imported crude lead as feed, forming an offsetting increase. After combining increases and decreases, national secondary refined lead output in June edged up by 4,200 mt MoM, with supply still having some support. II. July Expectations: Losses deepen, supply increase essentially disappears Entering July (estimate E), the industry's loss-making scope expanded further, and the magnitude of production cuts escalated significantly: Large-scale planned production cuts: Multiple smelters in east China (A/D), central China (F), and north China (G) explicitly planned to concentrate production cuts due to market losses, with a single smelter in north China reducing output by 9,200 mt - a scale far exceeding that of June. Although some enterprises had production resumption plans for mid-to-late July, they all indicated they need to watch lead price trends, making the pace of resumptions uncertain. Limited increase from production resumptions: Only a few enterprises in east China (B/C), northwest China (I), and north China (H) resumed production after maintenance or adjusted internal output to raise volumes, with the increase unable to cover the production cut gap. Overall estimates for the full month show that secondary refined lead in July will edge down by only 400 mt MoM, shifting from a slight increase in June to basically flat, as the increase is fully offset by reduction cuts driven by losses. III. Interpretation in the context of current lead market conditions The current core contradiction in the lead market is centered on ample primary lead supply + weak downstream battery demand during the off-season, which has kept lead prices falling under pressure, directly squeezing secondary lead smelters' processing margins: 1. Scrap battery purchase prices remain rigid and hard to fall, while refined lead selling prices weaken, leading to inverted TCs for smelters. Proactive production cuts to avoid risks have become a common choice. 2. On the raw material side, scrap battery recycling volumes are already at off-season lows, and losses further reduce enterprises' willingness to purchase materials, forming a negative cycle of "price decline → less material collection → production cuts". 3. Although some maintenance-related production resumptions are scheduled for July, the willingness to resume highly depends on a lead price recovery. If the market remains sluggish, originally planned resumptions may be delayed, and further tightening expectations for secondary lead supply will provide bottom support for lead prices.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Bottom Out, Stainless Steel Market Inquiry Activity Picks Up According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall bottomed out during the session. The SS futures dropped sharply in the Friday night session but quickly recovered after the Monday daytime session opened. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel quotes were subdued by the Friday night decline, with overall offers on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were also restored in tandem. Market inquiry activity picked up notably, though transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 245-795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled trimmed edge 304/2B coil average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the tug-of-war between macro factors and industry fundamentals dominated futures movements. US inflation data pulled back, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, the US dollar...