Brazil's foreign and trade ministries have issued a joint statement criticizing the EU's new steel tariff-rate quota system as unilateral protectionism that could intensify global steel trade tensions. The government stated the new measures may limit Brazil's access to an important long-term export market while failing to address global steel overcapacity, emphasizing the issue should be handled through international and multilateral cooperation. Brazil had previously requested GATT Article XXVIII compensation for potential trade losses from the new system, but the two sides failed to reach an agreement.

The US announced it will not renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement and will initiate a 10-year transition period to gradually phase out the trade pact. The decision follows a six-year review of the North American free trade framework, with the US seeking changes to bring more manufacturing jobs back and reduce trade deficits. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said Mexico hopes to address US concerns over employment and trade imbalances, but differences remain on stricter auto rules of origin. Canada's Dominic LeBlanc said Canada will continue discussions with the US on tariffs affecting steel, aluminum, automobiles, and lumber. All parties agreed continued dialogue remains important.

July 5, 2026 As of July 3, 2026, by Florian Grummes Since the end of January, precious metal prices have been in a pronounced correction phase. Following the increasing downward momentum of the past four weeks—which culminated in an escalation and ultimately a clearly recognizable final capitulation—there are now growing signs that precious metal prices are regaining their footing and are on the verge of a major recovery. On the gold market , the break below the key support zone around $4,400 since early June led to an accelerated sell-off , which recently pushed prices down three times to the $3,940–$3,960 range. Apparently, as prices dipped just below $4,000, more buyers returned to the market, allowing the gold price to recover significantly—by as much as $250—over the past two trading days. Short Squeeze Following Price Plunge Silver exhibited an even more pronounced pattern characterized by high volatility : The surprisingly dynamic, yet unsustainable, price surge to $89.37 in the first half of May was followed by an even more severe sell-off. Within six weeks, the price fell sharply, dropping by 29.5% to $55.59. Unlike gold, however, the low of June 24 has not been breached in the past nine days, despite all efforts by the bears. Instead, the short squeeze in the silver market has so far led to a rebound of 13.1%. Early-summer bottom taking shape We have pointed out several times in recent weeks that the combination of capitulation by weak hands (high gold ETF sales), favorable seasonality starting in July, increasingly fearful sentiment, and a completely oversold technical market should bring about an early-summer bottom. Accordingly, the odds are now good that the gold price can recover toward its 50- and 200-day moving averages in the range around $4,500. For the silver price, levels around $70 would at least be conceivable. Market Correction and Further Shift Toward the East In any case, the five-month price decline in precious metals appears to have halted for the time being. While silver has more than halved in price since its high at the end of January, Western bullion banks used the period of weakness to systematically reduce risk in the futures markets: short positions were significantly reduced, and open positions were scaled back. However, the geopolitical cost of this development is considerable. China specifically capitalized on the low prices and accumulated large quantities of physical metal—several hundred metric tons of gold and an estimated up to 2,500 metric tons of silver. This market correction was accompanied by a decline in open interest to its lowest level in decades, as well as additional price losses in the wake of the recent COMEX collapse. The bottom line is that a structural shift is continuing: While the West is cleaning up its books, physical precious metals are increasingly finding their way into strong hands in the East. Summer Rally: Proceed with Caution Depending on how the anticipated summer rally unfolds and how the significantly overbought stock markets—which are vulnerable to a correction, particularly the parabolically rising semiconductor sector—behave in the meantime, even higher price targets for gold and silver are certainly conceivable by fall. For now, however, we do not want to get too far ahead of ourselves; instead, we intend to reassess the situation step by step and, when in doubt, would rather be pleasantly surprised. Silver in USD – Support around $55 has held Silver in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of July 3, 2026. © GOLD.DE Starting from the new all-time high of $121.67 on January 29, 2026, the silver price has so far fallen back in three distinct downward waves to its most recent low of $55.59. This has corrected nearly the entire upward move since the breakout above the $50 mark last fall. However, the broad range between $45 and $55—at the center of which lies the previous decades-long high of $50—should provide extremely robust support and has so far withstood its first stress test. Oversold and Ready for a Rebound Now that silver has returned to this range in a heavily oversold state, the chances of a significant rebound are very good. Ideally, the entire correction over the past five months can be interpreted as a falling wedge, which could set the stage for a strong upward breakout in the medium term. At the same time, the path upward is littered with significant resistance levels. A key factor in the coming weeks will be a push toward the prominent resistance zone around $70. This zone converges the slightly rising 200-day moving average ($69.83), the falling 50-day moving average ($71.32), and a dominant downtrend line. Patience Rather Than Momentum However, an initial bounce off the moving averages is very likely, and silver is likely to need considerably more time to build new, sustainable upward momentum. Recovery with Clear Price Targets In the short term, however, the signals pointing to an impending major recovery clearly predominate. The 38.2% retracement of the downtrend since mid-May, at around $68.50, can be viewed as a minimum target. If, following a temporary pullback, a breakout above the moving averages occurs, price targets in the range of $75 to $78 will come into focus. Overall, there are increasing signs that precious metals have formed a solid bottom following the turmoil of recent weeks and that the summer rally has already begun. Conclusion: Silver – Signs of a Summer Rally Are Emerging Recent price movements in the precious metals markets suggest that the five-month correction phase may have reached its preliminary low. In recent weeks, both gold and silver have exhibited the combination of oversold conditions, extreme sentiment, and capitulation signals that often marks the transition from a downtrend to a recovery phase. In particular, the strong short squeeze of the last two days suggests that in the coming weeks or over the next one to three months, buyers will regain control of price movements . Now that the breakout zone around $55 has held, the silver price has considerable potential for recovery given the overall sharp sell-off. Our first moderate price target for the summer rally is approximately $70. Depending on how the price develops, higher targets are also conceivable. However, the fragile situation surrounding the AI and data center boom, as well as the increasingly precarious outlook for the semiconductor sector, lead us to remain deliberately cautious. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-and-gold-ahead-of-the-summer-rally-is-the-rally-about-to-begin

In July, the planned rebar production was 7.428 million mt, down 389,700 mt from June's actual production, a decrease of 4.98%. Average daily output of rebar in July stood at 239,600 mt, down 8.05% MoM. In July, the planned wire rod production was 3.197 million mt, up 18,700 mt from June's actual production, an increase of 0.59%. However, the average daily output of wire rod in July was 103,100 mt, down 2.66% MoM. In July, the sample steel mills' long product export schedule reached 653,000 mt, down 41,000 mt MoM. Among this, the steel billet export schedule was 350,000 mt, down 30,000 mt MoM.

Recently, China's lead prices have continued to weaken, with secondary smelters generally caught in a double dilemma of processing losses and a shortage of scrap battery raw materials. The SMM survey of production cuts and resumption plans at secondary lead smelters nationwide from June to July clearly reflects the current pressure on the industry. I. June Secondary Lead: Significant polarization among enterprises, slight overall increase In June 2026, smelter operations across regions polarized: Core logic of production cuts: Multiple enterprises in east China (A/C/D/F), north China (I), and south China (K/L) proactively reduced loads or suspended production due to falling lead prices, which caused losses on production, and insufficient scrap battery recycling volumes. A single smelter in these areas cut output by as much as 9,000 mt; other scattered enterprises across other regions cut an additional 4,700 mt. Increase offset by production resumptions: Smelters in east China (B/E), central China (G/H), north China (J), and northwest China (M) resumed production after maintenance and raised output using imported crude lead as feed, forming an offsetting increase. After combining increases and decreases, national secondary refined lead output in June edged up by 4,200 mt MoM, with supply still having some support. II. July Expectations: Losses deepen, supply increase essentially disappears Entering July (estimate E), the industry's loss-making scope expanded further, and the magnitude of production cuts escalated significantly: Large-scale planned production cuts: Multiple smelters in east China (A/D), central China (F), and north China (G) explicitly planned to concentrate production cuts due to market losses, with a single smelter in north China reducing output by 9,200 mt - a scale far exceeding that of June. Although some enterprises had production resumption plans for mid-to-late July, they all indicated they need to watch lead price trends, making the pace of resumptions uncertain. Limited increase from production resumptions: Only a few enterprises in east China (B/C), northwest China (I), and north China (H) resumed production after maintenance or adjusted internal output to raise volumes, with the increase unable to cover the production cut gap. Overall estimates for the full month show that secondary refined lead in July will edge down by only 400 mt MoM, shifting from a slight increase in June to basically flat, as the increase is fully offset by reduction cuts driven by losses. III. Interpretation in the context of current lead market conditions The current core contradiction in the lead market is centered on ample primary lead supply + weak downstream battery demand during the off-season, which has kept lead prices falling under pressure, directly squeezing secondary lead smelters' processing margins: 1. Scrap battery purchase prices remain rigid and hard to fall, while refined lead selling prices weaken, leading to inverted TCs for smelters. Proactive production cuts to avoid risks have become a common choice. 2. On the raw material side, scrap battery recycling volumes are already at off-season lows, and losses further reduce enterprises' willingness to purchase materials, forming a negative cycle of "price decline → less material collection → production cuts". 3. Although some maintenance-related production resumptions are scheduled for July, the willingness to resume highly depends on a lead price recovery. If the market remains sluggish, originally planned resumptions may be delayed, and further tightening expectations for secondary lead supply will provide bottom support for lead prices.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Bottom Out, Stainless Steel Market Inquiry Activity Picks Up According to SMM on July 6, SS futures overall bottomed out during the session. The SS futures dropped sharply in the Friday night session but quickly recovered after the Monday daytime session opened. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, morning stainless steel quotes were subdued by the Friday night decline, with overall offers on the low side. As futures surged, spot quotes were also restored in tandem. Market inquiry activity picked up notably, though transactions were mostly concentrated on low-priced cargoes. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,725 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged 245-795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil was flat; cold-rolled trimmed edge 304/2B coil average prices were flat in Wuxi and Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; the quote for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil was flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, the tug-of-war between macro factors and industry fundamentals dominated futures movements. US inflation data pulled back, and market expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, the US dollar...

The essence of this supply crunch is a "three-layered squeeze": Layer 1: Physical cutoff – the Hormuz blockade severed Middle Eastern supply, halting nearly half of global seaborne trade. Layer 2: Policy lockdown – overlapping export bans from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey blocked alternative supply sources, further tightening global tradable volumes. Layer 3: Capacity and inventory collapse – war-damaged Middle Eastern production facilities are slow to restart.

Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is thrilled to announce that our flagship event 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum was successfully held at the Hotel Novotel Muenchen Messe, Munich, Germany on June 23! Focused on the front-line European PV+ESS market, the forum brought together high-ranking executives and veteran industry experts from the global new energy industry chain, serving as a professional platform for in-depth China-Europe PV+ESS industry collaboration and dialogue. Opening Remarks From PV Boom to Storage-Driven Power Markets in Europe Guest Speaker: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Drawing on the real landscape of Europe's energy transition, Mr. Liao systematically addressed four major industry topics: Analyzing the market dynamics behind the surge in PV capacity and frequent negative electricity prices; Reviewing new energy storage policies in key countries such as Germany and the UK, including Germany's energy storage strategy, the UK's capacity market reform, and new grid connection queue regulations; Comparing subsidy incentives and self-consumption revenue models for commercial & industrial and residential ESS across different countries; Examining the current European regulatory framework and its profound implications for the global expansion of China's PV+ESS industry chain. He noted that the industry's logic has fundamentally shifted: PV is no longer just about module manufacturing, nor is it limited to PV + energy storage hardware sales. What we are discussing is not only about cost reduction and efficiency gains in hardware, but also about how to leverage energy storage to enhance generation asset returns, control operation and maintenance costs, and optimize enterprise-wide energy asset life cycle management. Keynote Speech: How China’s Export Tax Policy and Raw Material Volatility Affect PV and Battery Pricing? Guest Speaker: Ryan Tzy Tze Yang, PV Modules and End Use Market Analyst, SMM Ryan pointed out that, hit by the dual cost shock from the cancellation of export tax rebates and raw material price fluctuations, module export quotations rose to around $0.12/W in January. Higher costs are prompting overseas clients to prioritize high-end technology pathways, accelerating the industry’s product mix shift toward high-efficiency modules. Additionally, polysilicon and silver account for a significant share of cell manufacturing costs, and their price movements remain the core variables driving cell cost fluctuations. Global PV installations entered a period of adjustment in 2026 : constrained by grid integration bottlenecks across major regions and tightening policies in multiple countries, new PV installations worldwide are expected to temporarily decline to 435 GW in 2026. Amid this deep adjustment cycle driven by infrastructure and policy constraints, the structure of end-use applications is expected to show resilience, with utility-scale projects maintaining a stable share of approximately 56%. Panel Discussion: EU Solar Projects and China’s PV Supply Chain – Opportunities and Challenges Moderator: Cleo Zhou, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM Panelists: Ksenia Dray, Global Solar Supply Chain Leader, Res Group Pierre-Louis Raust, Head of Design and EPC Procurement, Power Capital Renewable Energy Allen Xu, Deputy General Manager, Global Marketing, Gokin Solar Co., Ltd. Huang Gengwen, Executive Dean, Module Department, Crystalline Silicon Research Institute The guests noted that the lengthy construction cycle of Europe’s local PV industry chain, wild swings in energy and raw material costs, protracted project approval and grid connection processes, local manufacturing policies that inflate supply chain layout costs, differences in technology roadmap choices and compliance standards between European and Asian industrial systems, the lack of end-user control over upstream resource prices, coupled with capacity diversion by emerging markets, are the main obstacles hindering China-EU cooperation in advancing EU PV projects. In terms of opportunities, the China-EU PV industry is highly complementary, with China offering mature capacity, complete system solutions, cost hedging tools, localized production line support, and mass production cost reduction capabilities, while Europe provides cutting-edge innovative technologies; this division of labor can jointly achieve Europe’s PV goals. Meanwhile, new technologies, customized solutions, and hedging instruments can mitigate Europe’s challenges with costs and project implementation timelines. Keynote Speech: How Technology Choices Shape BESS Economics Guest Speaker: Michael Strobel, Business Director Europe, Great Power Three Core Dimensions of BESS Economics Safety Value: Safeguard asset security and ensure business continuity and stable operation; Investment Return: Enhance life cycle return rates and reduce the levelized cost of energy storage; O&M Management: Ensure reliable equipment operation and cut full-cycle O&M expenses. High Safety Is the Core Principle of BESS Battery Cell : Use of high-quality LFP battery cells; advanced aerogel insulation technology to block thermal propagation; certified to GB, UL, IEC, UN, MSDS, and RoHS standards. Battery Pack: Battery Pack: Aerogel insulation layers block thermal propagation between battery cells. Fuse protection circuits reduce short-circuit risks; Battery Cluster: multi-level (fuses/contactors/disconnect switches) protection; Comprehensive Protection: overcharge/overdischarge/short-circuit protection. Panel Discussion: BESS Project Development in Europe: Grid, Permits, and Reality on the Ground Moderator: Liao Yu, Power Operation Center General Manager, LONGi Green Energy Panelists: Jan Fousek, CEO, Czech Energy Storage Association Gery Bonduelle, Chief of Business Development, Verkor Antonio Montoto, Head of Storage, Greenvolt Power Joanne Xu, Overseas Business Development Manager, SMM The guests noted that, at the grid level, energy storage demand across European countries far exceeds the existing grid capacity. While the responsibilities of TSOs and DSOs are clearly defined, grid operators lack sufficient resources and face approval delays, and foreign investment access is restricted with local content requirements. Policies vary widely across countries; Germany adopts a first-come, first-served mechanism for grid connection quotas, leading to clear regional market differentiation. Moreover, the permitting and implementation stage is fraught with obstacles. Large-scale centralized grid connections bring equipment compatibility and logistics challenges, such as the transportation of large-capacity storage containers. Geopolitical shifts, policy changes, and ongoing fluctuations in raw material and electricity prices constantly erode project returns. The core Central European market is fragmented across multiple countries. As a 10- to 20-year long-term investment, simply chasing low-cost equipment is not advisable. At the same time, future additional electricity loads will further strain the existing grid capacity. In response to these pain points, the speakers also proposed practical solutions: on the one hand, establish an industry association to interface with power grid operators in a unified manner, conduct pre-review of project documentation in advance, and streamline the review process; on the other hand, coordinate multiple parties including EPC contractors, the power grid, equipment suppliers, and financial institutions. For development outside China, rely on local partners to leverage the complementary strengths of the China–Europe industrial ecosystem. Enterprises can also effectively reduce risks by completing end-to-end preparations in advance, establishing a pre-operations and maintenance system, and implementing compliance support in phases. In the long run, grid connection approvals, delays in power grid capacity expansion, and price fluctuations remain the industry’s core challenges. However, the energy storage track offers ample investment opportunities; supported by integrated system solutions, new technology iterations, and industry collaboration, deployment challenges can be gradually alleviated. Meanwhile, the speakers also expect the market to see more high-quality standalone energy storage projects with sustainable and stable operations. That's the end of our 2026 SMM Germany Solar & Energy Storage Forum. Thank you for the support of all industry peers. See you next year!

In June 2026, the phosphorus chemical industry chain underwent a profound round of repricing under extreme cost pressures. Four keywords — "Surge, Hold, Strain, Expand" — capture the full-month landscape.

From July 1 to 3, ASEAN Sustainable Energy Week 2026 was held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center in Bangkok. As a leading energy industry event in Southeast Asia in terms of scale and influence, this year’s exhibition, themed “Driving Sustainable Energy Innovation through Regional Partnerships,” brought together energy investors, EPC contractors, and upstream and downstream enterprises along the industry chain from ASEAN countries to explore regional low-carbon transition development paths. Gokin Solar showcased a range of high-efficiency modules and its core wafer product portfolio, offering PV solutions covering multiple scenarios to closely align with local market demand, deepen regional partner collaboration, and further solidify its strategic presence in the Southeast Asian market.