Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 1:08 AM (Kitco News) - Gold investors shouldn't assume that a more inflation-focused Federal Reserve will derail the precious metal's long-term bull market, according to Axel Merk, founder and CEO of Merk Investments. While newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has signaled a more hawkish approach to monetary policy, Merk said that any near-term headwinds for gold could ultimately strengthen the market's longer-term foundations by reducing policy-driven uncertainty and shifting investor attention back to America's deteriorating fiscal position. In his first Federal Reserve press conference on Wednesday, Warsh made fighting inflation a central pillar of his leadership, emphasizing the importance of price stability. The market interpreted his comments as hawkish, with traders pushing expectations for future rate increases higher. Yet Merk said that investors should not automatically view a hawkish Fed as bearish for gold. "Everything else equal, Kevin Warsh is a headwind to the price of gold," Merk said. "But I actually think it's going to reduce volatility, which should be seen as a positive." According to Merk, one of Warsh's most important reforms is his effort to reduce the Fed's reliance on forward guidance and allow financial markets to play a greater role in signaling economic conditions. He said years of excessive communication and policy signaling have distorted markets and amplified volatility. "The Fed has always done what they had to do, but often with huge delays and much more damage," he said. "Just avoiding the big mistakes reduces volatility." Along with creating unnecessary market volatility, Merk also pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s economic projections and dot plot have never been accurate forecasting tools. He added that, for gold investors, less monetary policy uncertainty could have an unexpected benefit. Instead of obsessing over every Fed statement, dot plot projection, or interest-rate forecast, investors may begin focusing on structural issues that remain firmly supportive of gold, particularly the United States' growing debt burden. "For the gold bugs, for better or worse, we've got unsustainable deficits," Merk said. "The market should be focused more on the fiscal side." The comments come as many analysts continue to debate whether higher interest rates and elevated bond yields represent a significant obstacle for gold prices. Conventional wisdom suggests that rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. However, Merk challenged the idea that opportunity costs should dictate an investor's decision to own precious metals. He noted that gold serves multiple functions within a portfolio, including preserving purchasing power during periods of monetary instability and fiscal deterioration. "I own gold for a variety of reasons," he said. "It's about preservation of purchasing power." Merk added that even if Warsh succeeds in restoring credibility to monetary policy and making progress against inflation, the process will take years. He pointed out that former Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker, widely credited with breaking the back of inflation in the early 1980s, did not immediately return inflation to desired levels. "Keep in mind, Paul Volcker didn't get inflation down to two percent," Merk said, noting that meaningful progress only emerged late in Volcker's tenure and into the early Greenspan years. Beyond Fed policy, Merk noted that some of the recent pressure on gold has stemmed from geopolitical developments, particularly the market's reaction to tensions involving Iran and their impact on oil prices, inflation expectations, and real interest rates. However, he expects those relationships to normalize over time. "My guess is that correlation is going to break down," he said, referring to the recent link between gold and oil prices. "I think that's going to be a big positive for gold." Ultimately, Merk said investors should avoid reducing the case for investing in gold to a simple debate over interest rates. He explained that a more disciplined and inflation-focused Federal Reserve may remove one source of uncertainty from the market, but it does little to address the longer-term challenges posed by persistent budget deficits, rising government debt, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Those factors, he argued, remain powerful reasons for investors to maintain exposure to gold regardless of the Fed's policy path. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-bull-market-remains-intact-even-hawkish-fed-says-axel-merk

Published: Jun 19, 2026 - 11:15 PM (Kitco News) - The Federal Reserve’s new tightening bias continues to take its toll on the gold market, with a growing number of analysts expecting prices to retest support near $4,000 an ounce. However, one bank has a simple suggestion for investors: “buy the dip.” Heading into the third quarter, market strategists at Société Générale updated their Multi-Asset Portfolio and recommended that investors remain long equities and commodities, as they expect central banks to remain behind the inflation curve. They said that, in this environment, investors need inflation protection. “We return to a full weighting in gold, taking advantage of the recent drawdown. Looking ahead, gold volatility may decline if retail participation—particularly through ETFs—eases off, while central banks are likely to remain active buyers, particularly as part of their ongoing de-dollarisation drive and as institutions diversify further away from equities and bonds,” the analysts said. For the third quarter, the French bank has a 10% allocation to gold, up from 7% in the second quarter. At the same time, SocGen is increasing its broader commodity exposure to 10% from 8%. “Electrification, AI, and sovereignty trends support the BCOM Index, with a bias toward industrial metals and energy,” the analysts said. The bank said its total 20% commodity exposure is the largest on record. Looking at the gold market, despite the current selling pressure, SocGen sees gold prices recovering in the fourth quarter of this year and climbing back to $5,000 an ounce by the second quarter of 2027, with the potential to reach new record highs in the third quarter of next year. The gold market has seen renewed selling pressure this week after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in a range between 3.50% and 3.75%. However, in its updated economic projections, the central bank signaled support for a potential rate hike by the end of the year. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed the central bank’s hawkish bias, emphasizing its focus on price stability. However, the analysts at SocGen are not convinced that the Fed will actually pull the trigger on a rate hike. “Policymakers have effectively adjusted to a new equilibrium featuring higher growth alongside a higher inflation risk. This shift is reinforced by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will move behind the curve, refraining from raising rates by year-end and even cutting next year. This implies inflation protection is more important than ever,” the analysts said. Despite potential downside risks to gold, SocGen said that the core pillars of its bull case—persistent currency erosion, worsening fiscal policy, and fracturing geopolitics—remain unchanged. Along with their increased commodity exposure, the analysts are also increasing their equity holdings to 55% of the portfolio, up from 50% in the second quarter. The bank is also increasing its exposure to inflation-protected securities, with a focus on U.S. and eurozone bonds. SocGen is also increasing its exposure to high-yield corporate debt. The bank said it will hold no cash in the third quarter. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/gold-prices-are-down-socgen-buying-dip

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 5:42 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices have tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what many investors interpreted as a hawkish debut, but at least one market strategist argues the precious metal's longer-term outlook remains intact. In commentary following Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair, Rebecca Ivaldi, Market Strategist at FCT Capital Partners and former Lehman Brothers analyst, said markets may be overestimating the central bank's willingness to keep monetary policy restrictive and underestimating the structural forces supporting gold demand. The precious metal came under pressure after Warsh repeatedly emphasized the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. During the press conference, Warsh described inflation as a burden on American households and declared that the Federal Open Market Committee was "unambiguous and unanimous" in its determination to restore price stability. However, Ivaldi argues that beneath the hawkish rhetoric were several signals suggesting a less restrictive policy path than markets initially assumed. "The knee-jerk algorithmic reaction to the press conference was exactly what we saw in January right after the news broke that Warsh had been picked -- Hawk in the Fed equals Gold Down," she wrote. "But this short-term speculative reaction is almost entirely irrelevant in my view." One of the key points highlighted by Ivaldi was Warsh's discussion of housing markets. During the press conference, the Fed chair acknowledged that monetary policy appeared "somewhat restrictive" in housing, while describing the broader impact of policy across the economy as "uneven." Ivaldi interpreted those comments as evidence that Warsh may be more concerned about overly restrictive borrowing costs than his public messaging suggests. She also pointed to Warsh's skepticism toward traditional inflation measures and his decision to launch a review of the Fed's data-gathering framework. During the press conference, Warsh announced a task force to examine new data sources and improve the quality and timeliness of economic information available to policymakers. He argued that many official statistics rely on outdated survey methods and that policymakers need more real-time information about economic conditions. According to Ivaldi, that effort suggests the Fed may ultimately conclude that underlying inflation pressures are less severe than headline data currently indicate. She contends that once temporary energy-related distortions are removed, inflation is already much closer to the Fed's target than widely believed. Another point attracting attention was Warsh's treatment of the Fed's so-called "dot plot." Although the latest projections showed a significant number of policymakers expecting higher rates by year-end, Warsh downplayed the importance of those forecasts, noting that participants effectively submitted their projections in pencil and could easily revise them as conditions change. Ivaldi argues that the chairman's remarks undermine the market's assumption that the Fed is preparing for additional tightening. She noted that Warsh confirmed there was no active discussion of raising rates at the current meeting and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. For gold investors, however, Ivaldi believes the more important story lies beyond Fed policy. She argues that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the gradual evolution of non-dollar trade arrangements continue to support long-term demand for physical gold. Ivaldi explained that the reopening of energy trade routes could restore flows in which Middle Eastern trade surpluses are converted into physical gold through Chinese markets, creating a structural source of demand largely independent of short-term interest-rate expectations. Ivaldi also maintains that rising sovereign debt burdens and pressure on government financing costs ultimately limit how restrictive monetary policy can become. In her view, policymakers face increasing incentives to keep Treasury yields contained, a backdrop that historically has been supportive for hard assets such as gold. Warsh himself offered little guidance on the future path of rates, repeatedly stressing that the Fed had abandoned formal forward guidance and would remain focused on incoming data. He also emphasized that the central bank's credibility would ultimately be measured by its ability to deliver price stability rather than by its rhetoric. For now, gold traders appear focused on the chairman's inflation-fighting language. But Ivaldi argues that investors should pay closer attention to what she sees as the deeper forces reshaping global capital flows. "The jawboning works for a few days, but the underlying plumbing tells the real story," she said. “The dollar is left less fungible for international trade, not more, the sovereign debt burden remains massive, and the long-term structural case for gold has only grown stronger. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-post-fed-selloff-may-be-missing-bigger-picture-says-former-lehman

Published: Jun 19, 2026 - 5:54 AM (Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another volatile week, as early safe-haven demand from Middle East uncertainty gave way to heavy selling after the Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled that a 2026 rate hike remained on the table. Spot gold kicked off the week trading at $4,210.52 per ounce on Sunday evening, and quickly pushed higher as traders continued to price in geopolitical risk around the U.S.-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The rally continued through Monday’s and Tuesday’s trading sessions, with gold holding above $4,300 as markets looked ahead to the Fed decision and monitored signs of progress toward a regional de-escalation. Gold made its strongest move on Wednesday, when spot prices set their weekly high at $4,381.83 per ounce just minutes before the rate announcement, but the advance quickly reversed after the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% while signaling that another rate hike before year-end was possible. The hawkish shift lifted the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, undercutting gold despite lingering concerns about inflation and the Middle East. The yellow metal’s selloff accelerated Thursday after the U.S. and Iran signed a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing oil prices and reducing some of gold’s safe-haven appeal. Spot gold broke back below $4,250 and ultimately set its weekly low at $4,201.14 per ounce on Thursday afternoon as U.S. markets closed ahead of Friday’s Juneteenth holiday. The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed the bears back in control on Wall Street after the Fed’s hawkish lean, while Main Street sentiment bounced back into bullish territory despite gold’s late-week slide. “Unchanged (but volatile),” said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management. “The tone of the Federal Reserve meeting and new chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments came as a shock to the market, which will have to absorb the apparent shift in coming days and weeks. Warsh himself is unlikely to make attempts to clarify his comments–unlike under the last Fed Chairman–so we will have to wait for the next fed meeting to see where the Fed goes next. In the meantime, a peace in Iran, albeit fragile, as well as ongoing purchases from central banks and Tether, supports the price on the downside.” Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, sees gold prices sliding further next week. “Why? That’s how the coin toss went this morning,” he said. “The bottom line is nothing about the market has changed. Central banks continue to buy while investors continue to sell. Inflation is still a concern, with the US FOMC hinting at a rate hike before the end of 2026. While this could support the US dollar, theoretically weakening dollar-backed commodities like gold, it doesn’t change the fact central banks would rather own gold long-term than the dollar.” “Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “I still believe the pullback was completely overdone. A lot of where things go now rest on the peace deal to be signed in Switzerland and the details that get ironed out over the next 60 days. If we keep moving toward a more lasting peace, gold should benefit… despite what Chairman Warsh does at the Fed.” “I’m betting on peace, and I’m betting on gold.” Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options, told Kitco News that Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as head of the Fed went well, but it’s clear the FOMC is divided on the rate path. “What really came out was that it looks like there's a lot of members that are looking for rate hikes,” he said. “I think that's the story.” As far as the reaction from precious metals, Grady said while the price action may look dramatic, there’s nothing behind it right now. “I always go back to the volume,” Grady said. “You see gold is down $115; it was down $125... the [front-month futures] volume didn't even break 100,000 for the day. Just anemic, no one's trading. We see silver almost down $5, but the total silver volume from last night at 6 pm is 31,000 contracts.” “They're just not trading it,” he added. “Volumes are anemic, the open interest is extremely low. There's not a lot of interest in the market right now.” Grady said that gold found solid support at the $4,000 per ounce level, and we could be headed back there in short order. “You can see the psychological level of $4,000 is going to be good support for gold,” he said. “But if we just keep sitting around these levels and no one comes in to start buying it, I think that you're going to see a retest of those lows.” Grady said nothing about new Fed chair Warsh appears to be rubbing markets the wrong way, and the bearish moves he sees are a response to others on the FOMC. “I think the market's reacting to the other Fed governors who are looking for rate hikes,” he said. “That's what the gold market's reacting to, anyway. The equities don't seem to be reacting to any of that. But I think what Warsh is holding onto, and why he keeps stressing that he wants to focus on the data that's coming out, is because if you look at the latest inflation numbers, everything's coming from energy. As I'm talking, the energy market's ticking down, and now we're seeing $75 crude oil.” “If we can get gas prices down around $3, or even under $3, I think the whole picture changes, because the inflation data will change.” Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, Grady said he wouldn’t want to be on either side of any gold trades, but he expects gold prices to test the recent lows when traders return next week. “I'd be flat, and I plan on being flat,” he said. “I feel like we haven't seen the lows in gold. I think we're going to see a retest of those lows in gold, possibly even next week. I'm looking at the screen right now, it's a fifty-cent bid-ask spread, one lot up, no volume on that screen. People are not trading. If people saw this as a value area, they'd be in there buying. And I just don't think there's a lot of people in there buying.” “I think we have to find that level, so I'm looking for a retest of those lows.” This week, 10 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street’s majority opinion turning bearish as gold gave up its gains following the reemergence of rate hikes on the horizon. Only one expert, or 10%, expected to see gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while seven others – fully 70% of the total – predicted a price decline. The remaining two analysts, representing 20%, saw the yellow metal trending sideways next week. Meanwhile, 46 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors returning to their bullish baseline despite gold’s post-Fed weakness. 25 retail traders, or 54%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while another 16, or 35%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining five investors, representing 11% of the total, expect to see consolidation during the coming week. Next week’s economic data will feature the final reading of Q1 GDP and PCE inflation, along with an early look at manufacturing and services purchasing for June The data calendar starts on Tuesday morning with the release of S&P Global Flash PMI for June. Then on Wednesday, markets will be watching New Home Sales for May. Thursday will see the release of final US Q1 GDP and PCE, along with weekly jobless claims, and May durable goods orders. The week wraps up on Friday morning with the final print of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for June. Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, said the new Fed chair didn’t do gold any favors. “This meeting makes the Gold rally from ~$4K/oz look increasingly like a tactical dead-cat bounce, not a structural reversal,” she warned. “Until the task force outputs land (~6wks) and there's clarity on what they actually decide, the statement & presser have to be read as more hawkish than the market priced going in → rallies to be sold, not chased.” Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to decline next week. “It appears the rally triggered by the signing of the US-Iran memorandum has ended amid the Fed’s hawkish stance, sparking a wave of US dollar buying,” he said. “From a technical analysis perspective, the long-standing key support level, the 200-day moving average, has shifted to resistance. However, for this view to be confirmed, gold would need to fall below $4,000, breaking through the key round figure and the area of the previous rebound. That said, the bulls still harbour faint hopes that this level will once again attract buyers.” “Either way, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a retest of $4,000 next week.” Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see lower gold prices in the coming days. “LOWER unless we take out lower timeframe formation above mentioned below,” he said. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. The trade below 52554 projected this down $740 (+)—we attained $1,209.2. The trade below 52036 brought in $1,157.4 of pressure. The trade below 51606 brought in $1,114.4 of pressure. These are OFF HOLD.” “On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $871.5,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $772.3. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $746.1. The break below 47420 brought in $695.8 of pressure. On 5/15 we left a medium bearish reversal—we have come off $507.0 from 45532. These are OFF HOLD. We held medium timeframe exhaustion with a 40462 low and rallied $345.3—if we continue to rally into a bullish correction, the minimum target is 50547. Friday we left the minor bullish reversal—we have rallied $167.9 from the 42326 open. The break above 42236 (-20.6 per/hour) projects this up $65 min, $155 (+) max—we attained $158.9. The break above 42769 (-14 tics per/hour) has brought in $114.6 of strength. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion with a 44036 high and rolled over $166.2 into a bearish correction/trend against the move up from 40462, with possible exhaustion at 42249-069 and 41840-1677, but these are premature to hold. A maintained gap lower will leave a minor bearish reversal.” At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,208.99 per ounce for a flat performance on the week and a loss of 1.14% on the day. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-18/wall-street-bears-back-control-after-feds-hawkish-outlook-main-street-leans

(Kitco News) - The gold market continues to regain lost ground, and although the precious metal isn’t out of danger just yet, current prices still represent an attractive entry point for investors looking to build a position, according to Wells Fargo. In the bank’s mid-year outlook webinar, Sameer Samana, Head of Global Equities and Real Assets Strategy, said there is still a risk that gold prices could fall below $4,000 per ounce, but he is maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. On Tuesday, the bank raised its year-end gold target to $5,300-$5,500 an ounce and expects prices to climb further to $5,800-$6,000 by the end of 2027. The bank's strategists argue that the forces driving gold's rally are structural rather than cyclical, suggesting the current bull market still has room to run. Gold remains one of Wells Fargo's highest-conviction investment ideas, as the bank sees persistent inflation pressures, rising government debt, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty continuing to support the precious metal through 2027. "We firmly believe that gold is that additional diversifier," said Samana. "More and more in this highly uncertain world, central banks are looking around for something in addition to U.S. Treasuries and cash with respect to where to park their reserves." The outlook comes as gold continues to recover from a sharp correction after posting strong gains over the past two years, culminating in a record high in January. Spot gold last traded at $4,357.10 an ounce, up 0.61% on the day. However, gold prices are still down more than 20% from their highs at the start of the year. During the webinar, Chief Investment Officer Darrell Cronk described 2026 as being driven by "geopolitics, geography and geology," highlighting ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside intensifying competition for critical resources. He said these trends are helping to reshape global investment flows and support demand for real assets. While Wells Fargo expects inflation to moderate somewhat in the second half of the year, the bank does not see a return to the low-inflation environment that characterized the decade before the pandemic. Inflation has been supported by tariffs, higher energy costs, and growing artificial intelligence-related demand, according to Cronk. That inflation outlook is one reason Wells Fargo remains skeptical that long-term Treasury yields will fall significantly from current levels. During the briefing, Cronk argued that markets continue to underestimate the impact of persistent inflation and rising fiscal deficits on bond yields. "I think the market has gotten interest rates wrong for some time now," he said, noting that Wells Fargo entered the year expecting Treasury yields to remain higher than Wall Street consensus forecasts. He added that inflation premiums, term premiums, and growth expectations all point to long-term yields remaining elevated. Those dynamics could prove particularly supportive for gold . Responding to a question about whether inflation could outpace bond yields and potentially push real yields lower, Cronk said the Federal Reserve remains constrained by its dual mandate and is unlikely to aggressively tighten policy unless inflation accelerates materially. While Wells Fargo expects inflation to cool somewhat as energy markets stabilize, the bank sees continued pressure from fiscal spending and structural investment trends. Samana said that this environment creates a compelling asymmetric opportunity for gold investors. "To me, it's one of the highest-convexity ideas that we have," he said. "For gold to not do well, you would need countries around the world to rein in their deficits and defend price stability. The fact that policymakers will always take the easy way out, to me, is the case for gold ." He added that while gold could experience periodic pullbacks, the long-term risk-reward profile remains attractive. "I think eventually you're seeing something with a six handle out in 2027," Samana said, referring to Wells Fargo's expectation that gold prices could surpass $6,000 an ounce over the next 18 months. Beyond gold , Wells Fargo is also constructive on industrial metals, arguing that artificial intelligence infrastructure spending, data center construction, and global electrification trends should continue to support demand for copper and other key materials. The bank expects both precious and industrial metals to benefit from the global race to secure strategic resources and build next-generation technologies. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/golds-bull-market-has-room-run-inflation-risks-fiscal-deficits-support

(Kitco News) – Even when real yields decline and the dollar weakens, gold prices could struggle to catch a bid as strong equity markets will continue to draw investors to risk assets, according to commodity analysts at Société Générale. The French banking giant cautioned that gold investors may be in for an extended period of muted ETF flows combined with a pause in central bank purchases. “The market is finely balanced, and the path of monetary policy remains the key variable for gold through its impact on real rates and the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset,” they wrote. “Our analyst’s central scenario is driven by persistent inflation, oil-driven price shocks and a clear ‘higher for-longer’ rates regime.” SocGen analysts expect the world’s major central banks will remain cautious, with “the Fed on hold, the ECB still leaning hawkish, and the BoJ gradually tightening.” Going forward, the analysts see two potential macroeconomic paths. The first is “an AI-led, inflationary growth cycle keeping policy tight,” while the second involves “an energy-driven stagflation shock, particularly in the event of prolonged supply disruptions.” “Our analysts expect inflation across the US and Europe to stay elevated into early 2027 before moderating, providing only temporary support to gold’s hedge appeal,” they warned. “Crucially, they view policy stability rather than easing as the baseline, limiting upside for gold in the near term.” SocGen said they do expect some support to emerge later “as real yields gradually decline and the USD initially softens,” but they warned that even then, gold’s upside will be limited by “resilient global growth, strong equity markets and a continued investor preference for risk assets.” “On the demand side, subdued ETF inflows and constrained central bank activity limit the strength of financial demand, though a recovery is anticipated into 2027,” they added. “Physical demand, particularly jewellery, shows resilience in value terms and could provide marginal support as prices consolidate.” Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-17/persistent-inflation-oil-driven-price-shocks-and-higher-longer-rates-will

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 11:32 PM (Kitco News) – Gold’s 26% decline during the Iran conflict came from a boost to the dollar, yields and equities which overwhelmed the yellow metal's safe-haven appeal, but persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and central bank demand remain intact, and gold prices will still reach nearly $4,800 in 2026 and $4,900 in 2027, according to Barclays. In a research note published Monday, the UK banking giant’s cross-asset research team led by Lefteris Farmakis and Themistoklis Fiotakis said gold’s three-month selloff was driven by the stronger U.S. dollar, white-hot equity markets absorbing all the available risk capital, and the unwinding of leveraged gold positions, with Russian and Turkish central bank gold sales also contributing to the weakness. The analysts said gold’s slide from its January peak to its June trough reflected a normalization of real interest rates, markets pricing out Fed rate cuts this year, and the short-term appeal of rising stocks detracting from gold’s investment appeal. The Barclays team calculated that the rise in the dollar index and the 10% S&P 500 rally accounted for 10% of the gold price decline, with the remainder coming from position unwinding in the metals markets. The analysts said these factors are temporary, however, and that gold’s structural drivers — persistent inflation, policy uncertainty and continued reserve diversification — are still intact, and they will reassert themselves as the geopolitical stress related to the Hormuz crisis dissipates. They characterized these drivers as “slow-moving variables whose influence accumulates over time,” which is why they were ill-suited to support gold prices during the short-term shock of the Iranian crisis. Barclays calculated that every percentage-point increase in inflation gives gold a 5% uplift, and they believe the inflationary impulse of the Iran energy shock will be supportive. The bank estimates gold’s fair value price currently sits at $4,150 per ounce, and they expect a rebound now that the Iran conflict appears to be winding down. The Barclays team said they now anticipate a reassertion of the dollar’s downward trend, a return to consistent central bank buying and sustained upward pressure on inflation from higher energy prices. Barclays said they are maintaining their 2026 and 2027 gold price forecasts at $4,791 and $4,900 per ounce, but warned that there may still be some short-term mark-to-market downside. The analysts also recommended exposure to gold mining stocks, including Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont and Agnico Eagle. “Recent price gyrations notwithstanding, if there is a period when gold ought to be trading at a premium, it is now,” they said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/barclays-sees-gold-hitting-4791-2026-4900-2027-iran-correction-fades

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 2:00 PM (Kitco News) - Central bank demand has been a solid pillar of support for the gold market as prices pushed to all-time highs at the start of the year. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, official-sector demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future. The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves. The survey comes at a historic moment for the precious metal. The WGC noted that gold recently surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset, underscoring a dramatic shift in how official institutions are managing their wealth. In an interview with Kitco News, Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said the survey demonstrates that official-sector confidence in gold remains exceptionally strong. "Central banks are still very positive on gold. In fact, more positive than ever," Fan said, noting that the percentage of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves rose to a record 45% this year from 43% in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The survey itself suggests that central bankers increasingly view gold as a strategic monetary asset rather than a passive legacy holding. Eighty-four percent of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of global reserves within five years, while 74% expect the U.S. dollar's share of reserves to decline over the same period. The findings reinforce a trend that has transformed reserve management over the last decade. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the last four years, double the pace seen during the previous decade. Fan said one of the most notable developments is that interest in gold is spreading across a broader group of central banks. "We're seeing newer central banks starting to emerge," he said, pointing to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Guatemala, and El Salvador that have recently entered the market or resumed purchases after years of inactivity. "The base on which central banks are buying is expanding." While emerging-market central banks remain the dominant buyers, Fan noted that interest is no longer confined to developing economies. The survey showed that 18% of advanced-economy central banks also expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. Fan said central banks are increasingly discussing gold internally as reserve managers evaluate how best to diversify their portfolios amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. "The number of conversations that we've been having over the past one or two years has definitely picked up," he said. "More central banks are approaching us, new central banks are approaching us." The survey found that reserve diversification remains the primary reason for buying gold, followed by the need for a stronger hedge against economic risks and concerns surrounding reserve-currency economies. Thirty-one of the 34 central banks planning to increase gold reserves cited diversification as a key motivation. The survey shows that reserve managers also continue to value gold's traditional monetary characteristics. A record 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during times of crisis as a major reason for holding the metal, while 84% pointed to its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, and 83% highlighted its diversification benefits. Fan said those responses were particularly striking because they came during the latest conflict in the Middle East. "The most relevant factor this year was gold's performance during times of crisis," he said. "If anything, it's even more relevant than before." He added that recent geopolitical tensions have not changed central banks' long-term assessment of the metal. "Central banks are valuing more than ever gold's performance during times of crisis, gold's role as a long-term store of value, gold as a portfolio diversifier, gold being able to be a geopolitical hedge," Fan said. The growing importance of gold is also reflected in participation levels. This year's survey attracted 76 responses, the highest on record and up from 73 last year. Fan said the growing response rate is itself evidence that gold is becoming increasingly important within the official sector. "That fact alone points out that gold is much more relevant, much more front and center as a topic among central banks," he said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/record-45-central-banks-plan-increase-gold-holdings-wgc-survey-finds

June 4, 2026 The price of gold is taking a breather. With the slide below $4,500 per ounce, the precious metal is currently testing its 200-day moving average—a crucial technical support level. This period of weakness has been triggered by renewed concerns over interest rates. But Tom Winmill, portfolio manager of the Midas Discovery Fund , warns against being blinded by short-term volatility. In an interview with Kitco News, he emphasized: The structural drivers for gold and select mining stocks remain intact. Interest Rate Concerns vs. Fundamental Strength Growing inflation fears are fueling market expectations of further interest rate hikes by year-end. This naturally weighs on interest-free gold. Nevertheless, Winmill does not view the current pullback to the 200-day line as a break in the upward trend. His confidence is based on robust fundamentals, above all the persistently high demand from central banks. Added to this are profound changes in the global monetary landscape. The so-called “weaponization” of the U.S. dollar and efforts toward de-dollarization are increasingly eroding the greenback’s status as the undisputed reserve currency. A dollar that remains weak in the long term would provide additional tailwinds for the gold price. The Decisive Factor: Real Interest Rates Winmill sees another key argument in favor of gold in the interplay between inflation and economic growth. While central banks appear rhetorically determined to combat inflation, Winmill doubts they will tighten the reins enough to risk a deep recession. The result: Real interest rates are likely to remain low or even fall further. Historically, this environment of declining holding costs has been an ideal breeding ground for tangible assets. Gold benefits twice in this scenario—as a classic safe haven in uncertain times and due to the favorable real yield environment. Geopolitical risks and persistent inflationary pressures further support this thesis. Mining Stocks: Solid Balance Sheets Instead of Cost Panic The weak gold price and rising costs have also left their mark on mining stocks. However, Winmill often considers concerns about profitability to be exaggerated. Underground operations, in particular, are less dependent on fuel costs and have long since positioned themselves with alternative energies. According to Winmill, the industry is fundamentally healthier than ever: record free cash flow, strengthened balance sheets, and some of the strongest results in recent years. While rising royalties, higher wages, and financing costs can squeeze margins, the starting point is significantly better than in previous cycles. Furthermore, the pressure to engage in expensive acquisitions has eased, as higher gold prices have already boosted the value of existing reserves. For investors, the bottom line is this: the gold bull market is not over; it is merely taking a breather. The lowest point in the valuation cycle for mining stocks is likely behind us. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/focus-on-gold-structural-strength-despite-headwinds-from-interest-rate-fears

May 29, 2026, 02:29 AM Gold is consolidating but the long-term bull market remains strong. Fiscal imbalances and central bank buying to drive prices higher. Gold is just taking a breath and the race is not over. Gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, dipping below $4,500 per ounce and testing key technical support levels, but the long-term bull market remains firmly intact, according to portfolio manager Tom Winmill of the Midas Discovery Fund. In an interview with Kitco News , Winmill emphasised that the current consolidation should be viewed as a healthy pause rather than a reversal. “Gold is just taking a breath and the race is not over,” he stated, underscoring his conviction that structural drivers continue to support higher prices ahead. The yellow metal has faced pressure amid shifting market dynamics, including stronger US dollar moves and fluctuations in Treasury yields. Yet Winmill sees these as temporary headwinds in what he describes as a secular bull market for gold. Strong fundamentals underpin outlook Winmill pointed to persistent global fiscal imbalances as a core reason for optimism. “There’s no way back from the fiscal imbalances, and gold benefits,” he noted, highlighting how elevated government debt levels and monetary policy realities create a favorable environment for precious metals. Central bank buying remains a powerful tailwind, with many emerging market institutions continuing to diversify reserves away from traditional currencies. This demand floor, combined with investor interest in gold as a hedge against uncertainty, provides significant support even during periods of consolidation. The portfolio manager also drew attention to gold equities, which he believes offer compelling value after the recent correction in the sector. Mining companies have strengthened their balance sheets through disciplined capital allocation and are now generating robust cash flows. Winmill views gold stocks as a strategic opportunity for investors seeking leveraged exposure to rising metal prices. Path to higher prices remains open Looking further ahead, Winmill has previously expressed bullish targets, including scenarios where gold could approach or exceed $5,000 per ounce. He maintains that the path to such levels is “wide open,” driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors including potential monetary easing, geopolitical risks, and ongoing de-dollarization trends. Despite short-term volatility, the Midas Discovery Fund manager advised patience. The recent pullback, in his view, represents a breathing period that allows the market to reset before the next leg higher. Investors who focus on fundamentals rather than daily price action are likely to be rewarded as the cycle matures. Portfolio positioning and strategy At Midas Discovery, Winmill’s approach centers on a mix of established producers and select development-stage companies with strong assets. Holdings have historically included names like Barrick Gold and Newmont, alongside royalty companies that provide lower-risk exposure to gold price upside. The fund’s long-term track record reflects success in navigating precious metals cycles, aiming to preserve and grow purchasing power through strategic investments in gold, silver, and related hard assets. Winmill has managed the fund for over two decades, emphasizing a disciplined, value-oriented style. Current market conditions, with gold testing its 200-day moving average, present what Winmill sees as an attractive entry or accumulation point for both physical metal and equities. He cautioned, however, that volatility will persist, particularly as markets digest economic data and geopolitical developments. Broader market context Gold’s performance in 2026 has been marked by significant swings following a strong prior year. While prices have retreated from peaks above $4,500, many analysts continue to forecast substantial upside over the medium term, with some projections targeting $5,000 or higher by year-end or into 2027. Winmill’s message aligns with this constructive view, reinforcing that structural bull market drivers have not been exhausted. For investors, the current environment calls for a focus on quality assets and a long-term horizon rather than attempting to time short-term moves. As global uncertainties persist, from fiscal policy challenges to international tensions, Winmill believes gold’s role as a safe-haven and inflation hedge will only grow in importance. The race, as he puts it, is far from over. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/05/29/gold-is-just-taking-a-breath-path-to-5000-oz-still-wide-open/