SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,380.5/mt and then hovered at highs, touching a high of $13,449.5/mt before the center fluctuated downward. Near the end of the session, it tested a low of $13,283/mt and ultimately closed at $13,323.5/mt, down 0.51%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 272,000 lots, an increase of 4,370 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 103,300 yuan/mt, initially rising to 103,400 yuan/mt before the center fluctuated downward. Near the end of the session, it dipped to 102,580 yuan/mt and ultimately closed at 102,720 yuan/mt, down 0.27%, with trading volume at 37,700 lots and open interest at 197,000 lots, a decrease of 2,022 lots from the previous trading day, primarily indicating bulls reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,240.5/mt, fluctuated upward to a high of $13,295/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to $13,182.5/mt, followed by wild swings, and finally closed at $13,242/mt, down 0.26%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 287,000 lots, a decrease of 2,451 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,350 yuan/mt, rose to 102,510 yuan/mt in early trading, then the copper price center dropped sharply to 101,700 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward to finally close at 102,290 yuan/mt, down 0.09%, with trading volume at 28,500 lots and open interest at 174,000 lots, an increase of 820 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper was closed overnight. The SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 77,740 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 78,340 yuan/mt and a low of 77,710 yuan/mt during the session. The closing price was 78,150 yuan/mt. The overall trend fluctuated upward. The price increase was 0.31%, with a trading volume of 26,894 lots and an open interest of 157,842 lots.

On May 23 (Friday), Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski stated that under the new system, Poland's copper ore mining tax would be reduced starting next year.

On May 23 (Friday), Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski stated that under the new system, Poland's copper ore mining tax would be reduced starting next year. The mineral extraction tax, which includes copper, was introduced in 2012. According to the annual report of KGHM, Poland's largest copper ore producer, the company paid 3.87 billion zlotys in taxes in 2024. Domanski said that the tax reduction and the introduction of investment expenditure deductions would reduce tax revenue by approximately 10 billion zlotys ($2.66 billion) over a decade and lower costs for copper ore producers by the same amount. Jakub Jaworowski, Minister of State Assets, stated that, in fact, KGHM is the supplier of approximately 85% of Europe's copper, which is absolutely crucial.

According to SMM, Poland's KGHM announced on Thursday that its copper sales volume in April was 54,100 mt, and its copper production receivable reached 57,900 mt.

On May 14 (Wednesday), KGHM Polska Miedz, Poland's largest copper producer, reported that its adjusted core profit for Q1 increased by 60% to 2.49 billion zlotys ($659.55 million), driven by rising metal prices and increased international sales. The company's payable copper production in Q1 reached 169,000 mt, meeting budget targets. Domestically, the company's core profit increased by nearly 40% to 1.25 billion zlotys, as price increases offset a decline in production. The core profit of its international subsidiaries in North and South America increased by 87% to 462 million zlotys, primarily due to increased sales. KGHM's joint venture in Chile, Sierra Gorda, more than doubled its quarterly core profit YoY to 672 million zlotys, driven by increased copper production and sales of copper and gold. The group's total revenue increased by 7.5% to 8.94 billion zlotys, while capital expenditure increased by 6% YoY to 692 million zlotys.

Copper prices have recently experienced significant fluctuations, showing a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound. In early April, affected by the US's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," the entire market was filled with anxiety, which significantly dragged down copper prices. Copper prices plummeted after the Qingming Festival, dropping to a low of 71,320 yuan/mt. After the market collectively vented its pessimism, it gradually returned to calm. Additionally, signs of easing emerged in the tariff war initiated by the US, causing copper prices to refocus on fundamental factors and gradually recover. Weakening Financial Attributes In April, global financial markets closely monitored the US tariff policy, experiencing two phases: a concentrated release of panic sentiment followed by its easing. In early April, affected by the US's "reciprocal tariff" policy, global stock markets suffered heavy losses. Risk-averse sentiment drove US Treasuries and the Japanese yen higher, while the non-ferrous metals sector weakened across the board. After the rapid release of market panic, on April 9, the US announced a temporary suspension of imposing high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trading partners. This led to significant gains in European and US stock markets, with the non-ferrous metals sector staging a broad-based rebound. By this point, most of the impact from the trade conflict had been absorbed by the market, and global markets gradually returned to calm. The US Fed will hold its interest rate-setting meeting in early May. The negative impact of the US tariff policy on the market has already weakened, but its influence on inflation and economic growth will continue to be reflected in US macroeconomic data. The macroeconomic environment in May is expected to remain stable overall, with its impact on copper prices likely to diminish. Tight Supply Recently, overseas mine operations have remained generally stable, with only sporadic disruptions. According to SMM, protesters in the Cusco region of Peru have blocked the entrance to Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine since March 30. Additionally, in mid-April, a worker at KGHM's Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile died, halting mine production. Sierra Gorda's copper production in 2024 was 146,000 mt, with little actual impact on global copper concentrate production. Since March, there have been signs of easing in the copper concentrate supply environment. In mid-March, the Panamanian government indicated it would allow First Quantum to export 120,000 mt of copper concentrate and permit the restart of the power plant serving the mine. Freeport, which had not exported any copper concentrate this year, obtained an export quota of approximately 1.27 million mt of copper concentrate. Additionally, there is room for some production release from projects like Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca Phase II and Oyu Tolgoi Phase II. For the week ending April 18, the processing fee for imported copper concentrates was reported at -$34.71/mt, down $3.82/mt WoW. The current level of processing fees for imported copper concentrates has remained negative for three consecutive months and continues to weaken. According to SMM's survey, some domestic smelters still have maintenance plans in May. Considering the potential impact of the downward shift in the copper price center on smelters' production enthusiasm, the tight supply situation for ore is expected to ease in May. Affected by the downward shift in the copper futures price center and suppliers of copper scrap raw materials holding back cargoes, the price spread between copper cathode and copper scrap narrowed significantly in April, even dropping to 450 yuan/mt in mid-April, the lowest level since late October 2023. The sharp decline in copper prices significantly reduced the sales volume of copper scrap suppliers. Copper anode production only saw slight increases from some secondary copper rod enterprises switching production. Copper anode production from ore is constrained by factors such as tight supply in the copper concentrate market and continuously falling spot TCs, making it difficult to significantly increase production. Currently, the impact of the foreign trade environment on copper scrap imports is gradually being reflected, with imported copper scrap volumes unlikely to rebound in April. Additionally, suppliers of copper scrap raw materials are holding back cargoes, waiting for copper prices to rise, which will exacerbate the tight supply of copper scrap in April. Although the processing fee for imported copper concentrates has remained negative, it has not significantly impacted smelter production. Although Tongling Nonferrous Metals announced maintenance in March, the operating rate of domestic copper smelters, as surveyed by SMM, has continued to rise, reaching 87.68% by the end of March. This is mainly due to factors such as high copper prices, as well as high prices for by-products like sulphuric acid and gold. The number of smelters planning maintenance in China in Q2 has significantly increased, with multiple smelters having maintenance plans from April to June. We estimate that the impact of maintenance on copper cathode production will be concentrated in April and May. Stable Consumption Boost The operating levels of copper cathode rod enterprises have been better than in the previous two years this year, mainly due to insufficient production of secondary copper rods rather than driven by growth in end-use demand. The rebound in terminal wire and cable consumption will be offset by high inventory levels in the copper rod industry, making it difficult for the consumption rebound to effectively form new and significant demand. The production and sales of the air conditioning industry exhibit distinct seasonal characteristics. May will mark the beginning of the downward cycle in air conditioning production, with air conditioning inventory likely to accumulate again at high levels. Therefore, copper demand from the air conditioning sector will experience a seasonal decline in May. May is a seasonally recovering period for the automotive industry. As trade-in subsidies for the automotive industry have been in place for several years, some demand has already been fulfilled in advance, and the actual boosting effect of consumption on production is expected to be relatively limited. Overall, driven by supply factors, copper prices are expected to continue their upward recovery in May. (Source: Futures Daily)

View SMM Metal Quotes, Data, and Market Analysis Order and View SMM Metal Spot Historical Price Trends On April 18, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) reported -$34.71/dmt, a decrease of $3.82/dmt from the previous period's -$30.89/dmt. The pricing coefficient for domestic trade ore with a 20% grade was 93%-95%. During the week, the spot market for copper concentrates was very quiet, with many traders having already sold their May shipment positions and now waiting for June shipment arrangements. BHP's Escondida tendered 10,000 mt to smelters, with the tender closing next Tuesday. Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula tendered 30,000 mt to smelters, with the tender closing next Monday and shipment scheduled for Q3. A 10,000 mt tender for Mantoverde, with shipment in June and M+4, will close on April 25. According to SMM, affected by the US-China trade war, some traders plan to resell copper concentrates originating from the US with a shipment date after April 10 to a Japanese smelter. Following this news, other traders plan to include copper concentrates originally imported to China into long-term contracts with Japanese smelters. Japanese smelters, constrained by smelter storage capacity, capital occupation costs, and inventory management, may not fully accept the redirected copper concentrates. The redirected copper concentrates involve mines such as Morenci, Robinson, Pinto Valley, and Mission. According to further information from SMM, last week a worker died at KGHM's Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile. Although the unfortunate accident was production-related, it does not affect Sierra Gorda's production plan. Sierra Gorda has four Larox filter lines, and one was already planned for maintenance shutdown before the accident, with the other three continuing to operate. Coincidentally, during the maintenance of one Larox filter line, a worker tragically died. Sierra Gorda's copper production remains within the annual plan. As of April 18, SMM's nine-port copper concentrate inventory was 706,900 mt, a decrease of 19,300 mt from the previous period, with the main reduction coming from Jinzhou Port, where copper concentrate inventory decreased by 32,000 mt WoW. View SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

Chilean mining regulator Sernageomin is investigating the death of a worker at a plant at Poland’s KGHM’s Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile.Following the accident, work at the plant was halted to facilitate the investigation.