[SMM Precious Metal Express] China, the UK and Japan all reduced their US Treasury holdings in June, with overseas holdings down $72.1 billion month-on-month to approximately $9.3 trillion, including a $26.4 billion reduction by Japan. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, the highest in 19 years, approaching the 5.44% peak seen during the early global financial crisis.

[Record-High U.S. Treasury Yields and Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Disrupt the Macro Environment; SHFE and LME Aluminum Prices Diverge] Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room will be somewhat capped by expectations of resumed production.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Zinc Prices Have Strong Support at the Bottom; Focus on LME Shipments to Delivery Warehouses] Overnight, LME zinc posted a small bearish candlestick, with the center of the daily candlestick moving higher. The upper Bollinger Bands upper band formed resistance above, and the KDJ opening expanded downward. Overnight, the US dollar was weak, providing bottom support for base metals, and the LME zinc backwardation structure......

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,885.5/mt. After the open, it drifted higher, hitting an early-session high of $1,891.0/mt. It then stayed high and moved sideways in a narrow range, with a low of $1,885.0/mt, and finally closed at $1,885/mt, up $5.5/mt from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.29%. The trading range was $1,885.0–$1,891.0/mt, with a spread of $6.0/mt. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2610 contract opened at 15,880 yuan/mt. After the open, it quickly fell to 15,845 yuan/mt and then rebounded to 15,938 yuan/mt. After moving sideways in a narrow range, it moved sideways in a narrow range at 15,865–15,880 yuan/mt in late trading, and finally closed at 15,875 yuan/mt, down 75 yuan/mt from the previous trading day’s closing price, a decline of 0.47%. Macro: The 60-day deadline for the US-Iran peace agreement officially expired, and Iran ruled out the possibility of an extension; US President Trump said the US is not currently seeking to extend the memorandum of understanding with Iran, and geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East intensified. As recent US economic data were weak, the market’s bets on further rate hikes by the US Fed continued to cool. China, the UK, and Japan all reduced their holdings of US Treasuries in June; the US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, a 19-year high. Li Qiang chaired the 12th plenary meeting of the State Council, stressing the need to thoroughly implement the CPC Central Committee’s decisions and deployments and strive to accomplish the annual targets and tasks for economic and social development. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) deployed efforts to accelerate the rollout of new-type policy-based financial instruments in 2026 and increase support for private investment projects. China’s National Bureau of Statistics: In July, the value-added industrial output of enterprises above designated size grew by 4.5% YoY in real terms; MoM, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential housing in first-tier cities shifted from a 0.1% increase in the previous month to flat. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead continued to consolidate on a strong note, and today was the delivery day for the SHFE lead 2608 contract, with relatively few quotations for warrant cargoes. In addition, EXW cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters differed between the northern and southern markets; in mainstream producing areas, cargoes were quoted at premiums of 0–50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, smelters sold in line with the market, and discounts in quotations changed relatively little WoW; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100–0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. After returning from the weekend, downstream enterprises gradually made purchases as needed, inquiries increased, and procurement was mainly EXW cargoes self-picked up from production site; spot market trading activity improved somewhat. Inventory: On August 17, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 410,975 mt; according to SMM, as of August 17, total social inventory of lead ingots across five locations reached 78,600 mt, up 5,800 mt from August 10 and up 3,400 mt from August 13. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Demand side, as downstream enterprises ended their high-temperature holidays, some enterprises resumed normal production, and routine procurement demand rebounded, easing post-delivery inventory buildup pressure for lead ingots to some extent. Supply side saw both increases and decreases: maintenance at primary lead enterprises was set to reduce supply to a certain extent; coupled with smelters holding prices firm while selling, the widening of spot lead discounts was limited. As losses at secondary lead enterprises improved somewhat, some enterprises resumed production, increasing market circulating supply, and secondary refined lead maintained trading at relatively larger discounts. Overall, lead prices were expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

SMM News on August 17: Weaker-than-expected US economic data led the market to lower expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes, with the US dollar index pulling back to around 99.5. Coupled with medium and long-term support from geopolitical safe-haven demand and central bank gold purchases, rising international gold and silver prices lifted China’s futures market, in turn boosting sentiment in the precious metals sector of A-shares. As of around 15:10 on August 17, COMEX gold rose 0.48% to $4,458.7/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold contract gained 1.05% to 955.72 yuan/g; COMEX silver climbed 1.47% to $66.065/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver contract increased 2.48% to 16,143 yuan/kg; and silver T+D rose 2.89% to 16,065 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum futures contract surged 3.37% to 436 yuan/g, while the most-traded palladium contract advanced 2.03% to 318.95 yuan/g. Equities: As of the close on the 17th, the precious metals sector rose 3.33%. Among individual stocks, Hunan Silver jumped 6.63%, while Shandong Humon Smelting, Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shengda Resources posted leading gains. Spot Market Silver On August 17, the morning ex-works reference average spot price for SMM 1# silver was 16,021 yuan/kg, up 3.21% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, higher silver prices suppressed downstream purchasing demand, and the market saw strong wait-and-see sentiment today. Against the backdrop of a widening spot-futures price spread, suppliers became more cautious in quoting, with transactions mainly driven by rigid demand from some acceptance needs, overall leaning toward parity. In Shanghai, early-session quotations were mainly at TD -5 to +10 yuan/kg, with insufficient purchasing momentum and transactions skewed toward the lower end. In Shenzhen, some national-standard cargoes clustered around a slight discount to parity. Today’s premiums quotations against the SHFE the most-traded contract 2610 were a discount of 70-50 yuan/kg. Overall, silver prices rebounded slightly today, but with the news flow lacking further upward momentum, prices are expected to move sideways in the short term. In the spot market, higher silver prices continued to curb follow-up demand, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines at the start of the week. Platinum On August 17, the average spot price of platinum was 431 yuan/g, up 2.62% from the previous trading day. Mainstream quotations for platinum were a discount of 3-2 yuan/g against the PT2610 contract. Driven by today’s rise in futures, suppliers slightly widened their discount quotations versus the previous trading day, but downstream consumption remained weak, and purchase willingness was limited after the futures rally, with procurement mainly consisting of small lots for rigid demand. Suppliers faced obstacles in selling high-priced cargoes, and the bargaining room in actual deals widened somewhat. Warehouse warrant premiums were relatively high, and mainstream quotations mostly hovered around a discount of about 1.5 yuan/g to the most-traded contract. Overall, platinum spot market trading remained sluggish today. Views From Various Parties On the outlook for precious metals, some institutions were relatively optimistic while others were more cautious. The views of several institutions are as follows: Everbright Futures believed that multiple US inflation readings cooled and consumption weakened, prompting the market to lower its expectations for a September rate hike. Gold prices last week generally shot up but then met resistance and pulled back. In the short term, upside resistance for gold was evident; however, stagflation, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases provided support, leaving limited room for a sharp pullback. On the US Fed, divisions within the US Fed remained apparent: Richmond Fed President Barkin supported keeping rates unchanged, while Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated a rate-hike stance. The market was also watching for comments from Wosh; his speech at the global central bank annual meeting at month-end in August was expected to be exceptionally important and could provide some guidance for the September policy meeting. On the geopolitical front, the contest and negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz were still ongoing. After the US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly weakened, CPI and PPI both came in mild, further confirming a marginal easing of inflation pressures. The market’s extreme pricing for a September rate hike pulled back markedly from earlier highs, which also drove a notable rebound in gold prices. However, as the data were released and the probability of a rate hike declined, the market again became “confused” about the outlook, and profit-taking pushed gold prices somewhat lower. In addition, reports said the Japanese government supported the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike, and the next window for a hike was likely to fall in September or October, triggering a brief bout of liquidity-panic sentiment in the market. In the short term, gold faced substantial resistance in the upper range and needed time to digest it, along with further catalysts from news flow. Nevertheless, it could be expected that deepening US stagflation, persistent geopolitical risks, and continued increases in holdings by China’s central bank would all provide structural support for gold, keeping the probability of a sharp pullback relatively low. (Zhitong Finance) CICC Wealth Futures: The US-Iran issue remained in stalemate. Iran stated that the US must not enter the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Strait of Hormuz in the future; however, Trump announced that the Strait of Hormuz was about to become US territory, and the impact of geopolitical factors had yet to be eliminated. In addition, attention should be paid to the US dollar: the US dollar remained weak recently, with the fundamental reason being that US missteps on the military, geopolitical, and financial fronts reduced the US dollar’s safe-haven value. Coupled with midterm election pressure, expectations of passive fiscal tightening, and the trend of “UK gilts-ization of US Treasuries,” the US dollar could weaken further in the medium term, and the year’s high may have already been seen. Overall, gold still had supportive factors in the macro backdrop, and gold prices were expected to retain short-term upward momentum after the pullback. CITIC Securities stated that base metals this week saw some profit-taking at their respective key resistance levels, and base-metals equities also experienced profit-taking. However, given that commodity prices still had significant drivers for further gains, it recommended being more patient with base metals. Gold prices were temporarily under pressure at the $4,500 threshold, but both employment and inflation data reduced the likelihood of rate hikes ahead of the midterm elections, and gold prices remained in a favorable window. A rare high premium emerged on the spot copper side, highlighting an extremely tight inventory situation; copper prices were on the verge of breaking to a new all-time high, and equities—priced at only a little over 10x PE based on a 100,000-yuan copper price—provided a sufficient margin of safety, making the allocation value proposition stand out. (Zhitong Finance) In the latest report released last Thursday, UBS strategists said that falling real interest rates would drive investors back into the gold market, while a weaker US dollar and strong central-bank demand for gold purchases would jointly push gold prices toward the $5,000/oz threshold in H1 next year. (Zhitong Finance) Citadel Securities strategist Scott Rubner, for the first time since 2026, recommended that investors allocate to structured gold positions, saying the current precious-metals market was forming “one of the most attractive upside opportunities in months” . Rubner believed that gold and silver were simultaneously benefiting from multiple tailwinds, including a shift in US Fed policy expectations, continued central-bank gold buying, quant funds still positioned as bears, the options market releasing bullish signals, and retail funds previously drawn by the AI trading wave potentially flowing back in. In his view, multiple factors were creating a rare resonance, and the precious-metals market could enter a new uptrend phase. StoneX senior analyst Matt Simpson said that improving Middle East peace prospects lowered market inflation expectations, pushing gold prices further higher from a consolidation range that had lasted for weeks and sat above $4,000. The US Department of Labor was set to release the non-farm payrolls report tonight. Simpson added: “Regardless of the non-farm payrolls data, $4,000 has proven to be a solid support level—I suspect bulls are waiting for a pullback to seize the opportunity and drive gold prices in a rebound to $4,600. The non-farm payrolls data may bring some fluctuations in the short term, but price action has already shown the direction; gold seems to want to rise.” World Gold Council: In July, positive momentum factors offset negative risk factors, leaving gold prices flat in July. Looking ahead, a second wave of high inflation similar to that in the late 1970s cannot be ruled out. But that in itself does not mean gold will surge, as it will depend on real interest rates, the US dollar, growth expectations, demand from Asian investors, and how central banks respond. Kelvin Wong, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, said: “The link between gold and oil prices still exists, because oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices may continue to rise.” (Jinshi Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said that since the beginning of this year, gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, driven by the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, hard-to-bridge geopolitical rifts amid de-globalization, and continued support from ongoing gold purchases by global central banks. Therefore, we believe this round of decline in gold prices is only a temporary adjustment within a bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and around $4,000/oz is highly likely to be the bottom area for this cycle. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from suppression to support, US Fed monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and together with a surge in US military spending pushing up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an upward channel within the year. Everbright Futures, looking ahead to August, said the short-term trend in gold prices depends on how the US-Iran situation evolves. If the conflict continues or spillovers expand, market sentiment may turn weaker again, and under expectations of liquidity risks, gold prices may continue to underperform; but if there is a substantive breakthrough in negotiations, gold prices may stabilize in the short term and see a rebound-driven repair. At that time, if financial markets both inside and outside China recover in tandem, it can be further confirmed. However, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank buying and allocation demand, even if another pullback occurs, the downside room will be relatively limited. In addition, the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium at the end of August may see Walsh outline a medium-term policy framework; before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key validation indicator. Overall, gold may show a solid bottom and be in a sentiment-repair phase, warranting a cautiously optimistic view. The core risks are that the US-Iran conflict again drives oil prices to climb above $90/oz, US inflation data rebounds far above expectations, and the probability of a September rate hike continues to rise, which may continue to suppress market sentiment; however, judging from the performance of financial markets outside China and oil prices, neither strongly supports a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict. A Reuters poll showed that after gold prices pulled back sharply from record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, but most still expect central bank buying and concerns about fiscal sustainability to provide support. In a survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for 2026 gold prices was $4,509 per ounce. This was below $4,916 three months earlier and marked the first downward revision in 11 quarters. The average forecast price for 2027 was $4,610, versus $5,100 in the previous survey. Gold prices hit a record high of $5,595 per ounce in January, but in Q2 they saw a sharp pull back as the Iran war intensified energy inflation and pushed up expectations for rate hikes, posting the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen by about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noted that gold prices rose on Monday because a sharp drop in oil prices eased inflation concerns and weighed on the US dollar and US Treasury yield. The steep fall in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the outlook for further monetary tightening. The move followed a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also pressured the US dollar and US Treasury yield, improving the outlook for non-interest-bearing assets ahead of this week’s US Fed meeting. The market is now focused on the US Fed and the upcoming release of US inflation data for further guidance on the interest-rate outlook. If yield remains subdued, gold prices should continue to find support around current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the US Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank: Cut its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce. Platinum prices are expected to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year, versus a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case showed that, despite Q3 historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling, India’s gold imports would remain subdued in Q3. This was due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and a discount in local prices, which curbed demand for fresh imports. However, Citi still set its 0–3 month short-term gold target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumed easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the US Fed; in the near term, many risks could still drive gold prices to retest lower levels, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance from the US Fed. Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical gold demand for the metal and buying by central banks were supporting the gold market. The analysts added that while gold prices faced near-term headwinds from expectations of US Fed tightening and a firm US dollar, after months of exchange-traded fund outflows, gold investment positioning looked very thin, suggesting that room for further declines could be limited. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets such as gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs said that, despite pressure from expectations of a more hawkish US Fed, central bank buying is expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains strong; the bank estimated that central banks purchased 81 mt of gold in May, with the three-month average monthly purchases at 67 mt—well above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman analysts said, “We believe the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings will continue for many years, as they hedge geopolitical and financial risks through reserve diversification.” The bank forecast that average monthly purchases in this year and next will be 50 mt and 40 mt, respectively. (Jinshi Data APP) Soojin Kim, an analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, “Recent price action suggests the market is placing greater emphasis on the possibility that US interest rates will stay high for longer, rather than gold’s traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment.” (Jinshi Data APP) Asset manager Fidelity International said it plans to rebuild its gold position, which it reduced earlier this year, at an appropriate time in the future, believing that gold’s long-term drivers remain strong. Ian Samson, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, “We plan to increase our gold holdings again; it’s just a question of timing.” He said he cut his gold allocation to neutral from January to February this year, when a multi-year bull market in gold abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market at some point in 2027. The rationale for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if “governments return to fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to pushing inflation back down,” “but I don’t think we’re in that world right now.” Samson also said that continued gold purchases by central banks (a key driver of the previous gold bull market) will continue to support gold prices. Recommended Reading:

Recently, Mitsubishi Motors Philippines Corporation disclosed that it is planning to construct a new, modern electric vehicle battery assembly facility. The total investment scale for the project reaches 7 billion Philippine pesos, all of which will be incorporated into the Philippines' new Electric Vehicle Incentive Strategy (EVIS) support framework. The chairman of Mitsubishi Motors Philippines clearly stated that this planned project focuses on the localized assembly of batteries for hybrid models, with no plans to include battery research and development at this stage. The primary bottleneck currently hindering project progress is the pending official release of the detailed implementing rules for the EVIS policy. At the technology and industry chain planning level, Mitsubishi aims to position this Philippines battery factory as a benchmark production line in Southeast Asia, with technical standards aligned with its existing production bases in Thailand and Indonesia, and overall competitiveness benchmarked against its domestic factories in Japan. At the same time, the company will progressively advance localization support and has already initiated cooperation discussions with several local Philippine automotive parts companies to build a local supply chain system.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Zinc Prices Fluctuate at Highs; Watch Changes in the LME Structure] Last Friday, LME zinc posted a small bullish candlestick, with various moving averages below providing support, while the upper Bollinger Bands’ upper band formed resistance above. Affected by the unexpected negative US monthly retail sales rate, a weaker US dollar, and the widening LME backwardation structure...

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

Published: Aug 13, 2026 - 10:43 PM (Kitco News) – Gold prices have faced the strong headwind of a high opportunity cost for much of 2026, but falling real rates will drive investors back to the precious metal, with a weaker dollar and strong central bank demand helping to propel prices back toward $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027, according to strategists at UBS. In a recent client note, the Swiss banking giant pointed out that prices have successfully broken out of their recent $100 trading channel to rise above the $4,250 resistance area for the first time in two months. “Reported Chinese institutional buying and inflows into exchange-trade funds (ETFs) have supported the latest price movement, while recent joint government efforts by the US and Japan to stabilize the yen may also have helped reduce the risk of a sell-off in US Treasuries,” they wrote. “Near-term risks remain, especially if US data stay firm, oil prices keep inflation concerns alive, or markets continue to price in a more hawkish Federal Reserve rate path,” the strategists warned. “But while the immediate backdrop may remain volatile, the medium- to long-term case for gold still looks supported by several durable drivers. We expect gold prices to rise toward USD 5,000/oz in the first half of 2027.” UBS expects lower real interest rates will help to reignite investment demand for the yellow metal. “[W]e expect inflation to gradually moderate, allowing the Fed to hold interest rates steady this year before resuming easing in 2027,” they said. “This should create a more favorable backdrop for gold, as a shift toward lower policy-rate expectations would likely reduce real yields, weigh on the US dollar, and help boost investment demand for gold.” A softening U.S. dollar and ongoing diversification flows are also powerful medium-term tailwinds for the gold price . “The US dollar may stay resilient in the near term, but structural challenges including large US fiscal and external deficits and already elevated investor allocations to US dollar assets mean there is scope for renewed weakness,” the strategists wrote. “A weaker dollar has historically been a powerful tailwind for gold, while a renewed focus on diversification away from the US dollar should benefit the precious metal.” Meanwhile, sovereign gold purchases continue to provide a firm price floor beneath the market. “Central bank demand has remained an important pillar of support, even when private investment demand has been lackluster,” they said. “We expect annual central bank purchases to remain elevated, supported by a long-term desire to reduce exposure to USD assets.” UBS noted that central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in Q2, and their in-house estimates project full-year purchases to total between 750-1,000 tonnes in 2026. “While these flows may not be enough to drive prices sharply higher on their own, they can help stabilize the market and offset weaker areas such as jewelry demand.” The Swiss bank advised investors to separate gold’s near-term trading risk from its longer-term investment case. “[P]eriods of weakness toward USD 4,000/oz or below may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure,” they said. “For investors with an affinity for real assets, we continue to view a mid-single-digit gold allocation as appropriate within a well-diversified portfolio.” On May 26, UBS cut its year-end 2026 gold price forecast from $5,900 to $5,500 per ounce , citing risks of persistent headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and sustained U.S. dollar strength. UBS analysts Dominic Schnider and Wayne Gordon wrote at the time that investors are shying away from the yellow metal as yields stay high. “Markets are rediscovering the concept of opportunity cost, with gold’s non-yielding characteristics once again becoming a more important consideration as real rates remain elevated,” they wrote.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of August 10–14, 2026. Chinese stainless steel futures fell for a fourth straight week, settling at RMB 14,245/mt (about $2,114/mt) on August 14.