[Domestic Iron Ore Brief Review] This week, the mine-mouth price of 64-grade alkaline powder (dry basis, pre-tax, acceptance payment) in Shandong remained stable at 894. Miners mostly maintained normal production, with the majority of long-term contract shipments stable and essentially operating with no inventory. A few steel enterprises saw inventory increase slightly, with purchases mainly made as needed, and overall market transactions were moderate. Steel mills currently mainly purchase as needed, with both buyers and sellers being relatively cautious.

This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. The main logic during the week remained weakening cost support. On Tuesday, Iran proposed charging transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump made conciliatory remarks, saying that “even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, he would still be willing to end military action against Iran.” Market expectations for tighter crude oil supply weakened, and declines in the energy sector dragged down the coal sector, weakening the cost-side logic. During the week, inventories of the five major steel products continued to decline, but apparent demand remained at a low level for the same period in previous years, providing limited fundamental-driven momentum to futures. In the spot market, purchasing interest was average, mainly focused on restocking at low prices. Spot prices were relatively firm, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

Today, Dalian iron ore fluctuated in the doldrums, with the most-traded contract I2605 finally closing at 799.5 yuan/mt, down 0.50% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand, and transactions in the spot market tended to be mediocre. This week, total inventory at 35 main ports fell by 300,000 mt WoW to 155.48 million mt; over the same period, daily average port pick-up volume is expected to increase by 3 million mt, up 150,000 mt WoW. As steel mills gradually resumed blast furnace production, hot metal production rose steadily, effectively supporting rigid demand for iron ore. From a macro perspective, growing expectations that the conflict in the Middle East will become prolonged meant that energy prices hovering at highs will provide some cost support for iron ore. However, continued compression in steel mill profits and weak willingness to transact restrained upside room for iron ore prices. On balance, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[China Iron Ore Brief Review] In west Liaoning, local iron ore concentrates prices fell slightly by 5 yuan/mt, with the ex-factory prices of 66-grade iron ore concentrates, wet basis and excluding tax, at 735-740 yuan/mt; recently, production at some local mines and beneficiation plants was hindered by environmental protection inspections, leaving overall iron ore concentrates resources relatively tight. Demand side, steel mills were mainly purchasing as needed, and the whole

Dalian iron ore was stronger in the morning session today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 805 yuan/mt, down 1.29% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 3-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were average. Fundamentals, inventory at the 10-port sample showed clear structural divergence this week. Among them, mainstream mid-grade ores such as PB fines and blended fines saw a notable inventory buildup, with PB fines surging 1.24 million WoW to nearly 9 million. In contrast, IOCJ fines, super special fines, and high-silicon Brazilian coarse ore bucked the trend and posted destocking. This divergence indicated that, against the backdrop of steel mill profits coming under pressure, the consumption side was accelerating toward extreme cost reduction. Steel mills generally adopted a barbell-style ore blending strategy of pairing high- and low-grade materials, significantly squeezing demand for mainstream mid-grade ore and putting further pressure on iron ore's upward momentum. On the macro front, driven by persistently high inflation outside China and fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, tighter US dollar liquidity further weighed on bullish sentiment in commodities. Combined with pressure from elevated inventory on the micro side and weak demand for mid-grade ore, iron ore prices lacked drivers for an upward breakout in the short term and are expected to remain in the doldrums within a narrow range.

[China Iron Ore Brief Review: Iron Ore Concentrates Prices in the Tangshan Region May Remain in the Doldrums. Iron ore prices in the Tangshan region fell slightly by 5-10 yuan, with the current ex-factory prices of 66-grade iron ore concentrates, dry basis and tax included, at 970-975 yuan/mt; there have been no significant changes on the ore side at present, and overall iron ore concentrates resources remain relatively tight. Demand side, steel mills are still largely maintaining normal production as planned, but their overall desire to bargain down prices remains relatively strong, and market sentiment is marked by pronounced game-playing]

Dalian iron ore futures were in the doldrums today after rising at the open. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 808 yuan/mt, down 0.80% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills mainly restocked to meet rigid demand, with inquiries remaining cautious; as of now, spot market transactions were relatively sluggish. On the fundamentals, SMM’s weekly maintenance statistics showed that blast furnace maintenance affected hot metal production by 1.4281 million mt this week, down 186,100 mt YoY. The impact of maintenance was expected to ease further next week, by about 40,000 mt. Therefore, rigid demand for iron ore remained relatively strong this week, providing solid downward support for ore prices. However, iron ore prices faced clear upward pressure. On the one hand, port inventory remained at a relatively high level (about 155 million mt); on the other hand, the relatively high price level suppressed spot market trading activity, leaving insufficient upward momentum for iron ore. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the overall market remaining in a stagnant state.

Today, iron ore prices opened higher but showed a volatile weakening trend during the session. The main contract I2605 closed at 813 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading session. Spot prices remained largely stable compared to the previous trading day.

Dalian iron ore futures were in the doldrums today after rising at the open. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 813 yuan/mt, up 0.06% from the previous trading session. Spot prices were basically stable from the previous trading day. Traders showed mediocre willingness to offer quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were limited. SMM shipping data showed that the iron ore supply side tightened somewhat this week. Affected by the Australian cyclone, global total shipments fell 14.8% WoW to 28.66 million mt. By contrast, China’s total iron ore arrivals fell 1.5% WoW to 26.74 million mt. Meanwhile, port inventory still showed structural divergence: the destocking trend for high-grade fines was evident, but the destocking trend for lump ore slowed down somewhat. Overall, tighter supply, coupled with steady growth on the demand side, determined that support for iron ore prices remained relatively strong this week. However, as the impact of weather factors on shipments weakened and Middle East-returned iron ore increasingly flowed into China, the supply side was still expected to remain relatively loose going forward. Therefore, iron ore prices were expected to continue a fluctuating trend at highs this week.

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......