SMM, June 20: Metal markets: The overnight domestic base metals market was closed. Looking back at the performance of domestic base metals on June 18: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance, with SHFE zinc up 0.39%, SHFE aluminum up 0.38%, and SHFE nickel edging up. SHFE tin fell 2.03%, SHFE copper fell 0.48%, and SHFE lead fell 0.15%. The overnight ferrous metals market was closed. Looking back at the performance of ferrous metals on June 18: Stainless steel rose 0.07%, iron ore fell 1.13%, rebar fell 0.95%, and HRC fell 0.77%. The most-traded coking coal contract fell 5.78%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 3%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.5%, LME aluminum rose 0.12%, LME lead fell 1.32%, LME zinc fell 2.05%, LME tin rose 0.19%, and LME nickel fell 1.41%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold fell 1.72%, posting a third consecutive weekly decline with a 1.55% drop for the week; COMEX silver fell 2.12%, marking a sixth straight weekly decline with a 4.51% drop for the week. The overnight most-traded SHFE gold contract was closed, with SHFE gold posting a weekly gain of 4.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract was closed, with SHFE silver posting a weekly gain of 5.25%. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end gold price forecast by $500, no longer expecting the US Fed to cut interest rates in 2026. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a note: “We revise our December gold target down to $4,900/oz (from $5,400), implying gold prices are still expected to rise in H2, but by less than previously anticipated. We remain structurally constructive on gold but tactically cautious, with near-term downside risks and medium-term upside risks.” The analysts said the outlook cut was driven by Goldman Sachs economists pushing back US interest rate cut expectations to June and December next year, from previously December 2026 and March 2027, as well as lower projected gold ETF inflows. They also added that concerns over central bank independence may be limited given the “surprisingly hawkish” first Fed meeting under Warsh. (Jin10 Data) Overnight closing prices as of 7:47 AM June 20: Macro front China: [NFRA: Promote the construction of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry] The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued guidance on the safe development and application of AI in the banking and insurance industry. It proposes to promote the construction of an AI application ecosystem in the financial sector. Advance the development of AI application infrastructure in the financial industry and promote the sharing and reuse of AI application outcomes across the sector. Encourage large financial institutions to play an exemplary role and export AI technologies and management experience to small and medium-sized financial institutions. Support small and medium-sized financial institutions in strengthening collaboration to jointly drive the implementation of application scenarios. Encourage closer synergy with the AI industry, using financial applications to foster industrial innovation and development, and leveraging industrial achievements to improve the quality and efficiency of financial applications. [Box office on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday surpasses 100 million yuan, number of new releases hits a near-decade high for the same period] According to data from online platforms, as of now, the box office (including pre-sales) on the first day of the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday has exceeded 100 million yuan. The film offerings during the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival are diverse and rich in genre. Over the short three-day holiday, nearly 20 films were released in concentrated fashion, setting a new high for the same period in nearly a decade. The film genres cover sci-fi, youth, animation, and more, addressing the viewing needs of audiences across almost all age groups. (CCTV News) [Guangdong: Accelerate the construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and make forward-looking plans for 6G technology and satellite internet] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that the deployment of 5G-A networks and pilot projects for 10G optical networks will be advanced in an orderly manner. 50G-PON ports will be deployed on a large scale in key scenarios such as factories and industrial parks. The upgrading and renovation of aging communication facilities will be further promoted, with FTTR whole-home optical network coverage to be achieved simultaneously in both new and older residential communities. Mobile network coverage along major transportation routes and hubs will be improved, and initiatives to increase broadband speeds and benefit the public will be implemented, driving an overall leap in broadband user download rates. The construction of the national integrated computing power network hub in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will be accelerated, the spatial layout of data centers optimized, edge computing vigorously developed, and a “cloud-edge-device” collaborative computing power service system created. Forward-looking plans will be made for 6G technology and satellite internet, a Guangdong 6G Industry Innovation and Development Alliance will be established, and ministerial-provincial 6G collaborative pilot projects will be promoted, with a focus on creating application benchmarks for distinctive scenarios such as embodied AI, intelligent connected vehicles, the low-altitude economy, and the marine economy. [Guangdong: Support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in enriching its futures product system and improving the full futures industry chain] The General Office of the People's Government of Guangdong Province issued a notice on the Implementation Plan for Promoting the Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Sector in Guangdong Province. It mentions that efforts will be made to cultivate and strengthen high-quality investment banks and investment institutions, encourage leading securities firms and fund management companies to enhance their service capabilities, compliance management capabilities, and market leadership, attract well-known domestic and international asset management institutions to establish corporate headquarters or regional headquarters in Guangdong, and encourage the development of the investment advisory business. Leverage the comprehensive service functions of the capital market, guide and support local cities in improving the databases of enterprises in the listing pipeline and M&A projects, work with stock exchanges, securities firms and other institutions to deliver thorough and detailed full-cycle advisory services for enterprises planning to go public, streamline approval processes involving the transfer of land use rights, real estate, and equity stakes in the M&A and restructuring of publicly listed firms, and encourage enterprises to expand the issuance scale of technology bonds, green bonds, and asset-backed securities. (from Wall Street CN APP) [Weifang: Expanding the 2026 Consumer Goods Trade-in Category Subsidy Campaign] The Weifang Municipal Bureau of Commerce released an announcement regarding the expansion of the 2026 consumer goods trade-in category subsidy campaign in Weifang City. It will provide subsidies in accordance with unified provincial categories and standards to individual consumers purchasing range hoods, household gas stoves (including integrated stoves), water purifiers, dishwashers, hearing aids, robot vacuum cleaners (including floor scrubbers), mobility-assisting exoskeleton robots, smart toilets, and other products. Individual consumers purchasing the above subsidized category products in Weifang City will receive a subsidy equal to 15% of the final selling price after all applicable discounts. Each person is limited to one subsidized item per category, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan per item, and the delivery address of the subsidized product must be within the administrative area of Weifang City. (Weifang Release) [INE Releases Notice on the Launch of Market Orders and Related Trading Order Sizes] According to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE), market orders will be launched effective July 6, 2026 (i.e., starting from the night trading session on July 3, 2026). Market orders will apply to all listed futures and options contracts. For limit orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order; the maximum order quantity is 500 lots for futures contracts and 100 lots for options contracts. For market orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order; the maximum order quantity is 60 lots for futures contracts and 30 lots for options contracts. For settlement price trading orders, the minimum order quantity is 1 lot per order, and the maximum order quantity is 500 lots. On the US dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 100.76, after hitting an intraday high of 101.13 and a low of 100.69. On the weekly chart, the US dollar index rose for the week, gaining 0.97%. Market pricing indicated that bets on Fed rate hikes rose, fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Data showed that foreign exchange traders, including hedge funds, were heavily buying options, betting that the dollar would strengthen further after the Fed sent hawkish signals this week and reinforced expectations of US rate hikes. According to traders, leveraged funds began buying dollar call options on Wednesday. This demand extended into Thursday as investors digested the anti-inflation rhetoric from the new Fed Chairman Warsh. Tobias Jungmann, Head of Americas FX Options at Bank of America, said, "We are seeing large-scale buying of USD call options, mainly concentrated in G-10 currencies. Given that current implied volatility is at low levels, establishing USD long positions via options looks very attractive." James Swindell, Senior FX Options Trader at Barclays in London, said, "We are seeing significant and broad-based demand for USD call options, particularly in EUR/USD and GBP/USD." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 60.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 39.6%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 31.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 19.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane said on Thursday that eurozone inflation will remain elevated despite the recent pullback in energy prices. To address the surge in energy costs since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February, the ECB raised interest rates last week for the first time in nearly three years. However, following the announcement of a peace deal between Iran and the US, oil and natural gas prices subsequently fell sharply. Lane said the ECB has no doubt about the correctness of the rate hike decision and still expects inflation to stay above the 2% target for an extended period. He said, "We think food prices will rise, as will the prices of goods and services. Even in a milder scenario where oil prices pull back, the rate hike was justified." Additionally, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch said: If we see services inflation pick up, we might consider another 25-basis-point hike as insurance. If the data is unclear, I don't think there is any need to rush. (Jin10 Data) [Bank of England keeps rate unchanged in a 7-2 vote, says it will closely monitor Middle East situation] The Bank of England kept its rate at 3.75%, saying the recent drop in oil prices is "encouraging," although two policymakers voted for an immediate 25-basis-point hike over concerns about persistent inflation. External member Megan Greene joined the camp of Huw Pill, the lone dissenter in April and chief economist, voting to raise the rate to 4% immediately, citing an unstable price outlook despite the recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. (from Wall Street News APP) On the macro front: Next week, the following data will be released: China's one-year loan prime rate as of June 22, Canada's May CPI m/m, Eurozone June consumer confidence index preliminary, France's June manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany's June manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK June manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK June services PMI preliminary, UK June CBI industrial orders balance, US ADP employment change for the week ending June 6 weekly, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, US June S&P Global services PMI preliminary, US June Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Australia's May unadjusted CPI y/y, Germany's June IFO business climate index, Switzerland's June ZEW investor confidence index, US Q1 current account, US May new home sales annualized, Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK consumer confidence index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index y/y, US May personal spending m/m, US Q1 real GDP annualized q/q final, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures q/q preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures q/q final, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized q/q final, US May core PCE price index m/m, US May durable goods orders m/m, US June final University of Michigan consumer sentiment, US June final 1-year inflation expectations, and other data. Also next week, attention should be paid to: ECB President Christine Lagarde addressing the EU Parliament; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem delivering remarks; the 17th Summer Davos Forum held in Dalian from June 23 to 25; the Bank of Japan releasing a summary of opinions from its June monetary policy meeting board members; Nvidia holding its annual general meeting; the Bank of Canada releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Fed releasing its annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo attending a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); today saw the maturity of 300 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and 248 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repos; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams speaking; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaking; and 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaking. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures gained: WTI crude rose 0.91%, while Brent crude rose 0.47%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude futures posted a second straight weekly decline, falling 9.83% for the week; Brent crude futures also fell for a second consecutive week, down 8.53%. International crude oil futures opened lower on Friday, struggled to rebound intraday, and turned lower several times. They hit a fresh daily low after reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, but as reports emerged that both sides continued to exchange fire after the ceasefire, they turned positive again late in the European session. Brent crude struggled around the $80 mark throughout the day. (Wall Street CN) Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that negotiations on a permanent agreement with the US will only begin after a permanent end to the war in Lebanon, the full lifting of the US blockade, US issuance of waivers for Iranian oil, and the release of Iran's frozen assets. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran is shipping a large amount of oil that was previously stranded due to the US blockade, potentially a positive development for Tehran after it signed a tentative peace deal with Washington on Wednesday. Shipping data compiled by Bloomberg showed that 11 tankers carrying a total of 20 million barrels of crude oil departed from Iran's Chabahar port on the Gulf of Oman this week. Previously, the US military had prevented these tankers from entering the Indian Ocean, a move aimed at restricting Tehran's access to petrodollars. (Jin10 Data APP) Separately, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed that during the week ended June 16, speculative net long positions in Brent crude futures fell by 94,763 contracts to 114,128 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) In addition, due to contract rollover, the NYMEX July crude oil futures will see their final floor trading at 2:30 AM on June 23 and final electronic trading at 5:00 AM that day. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiration dates of US oil contracts on some trading platforms are usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration. Please pay extra attention.

The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Reference Price (HMA) for the second half of June 2026. The HMA for the second half of June is as follows: the nickel price is $18,642.33 per ton (compared to the first half of June 2026, 18799.29 USD/ton), a decrease of 156.95 USD of 0.83%; the price of cobalt is 55,852.33 US dollars per ton; the HMA of iron ore is 1.58 USD/ton; and the HMA of chrome ore price is 6.37 USD/ton. • Ni 1.2%: USD 49.53/wmt (↓ $0.32) • Ni 1.3%: USD 54.25/wmt (↓ $0.36) • Ni 1.4%: USD 59.52/wmt (↓ $0.48) • Ni 1.5%: USD 64.73/wmt (↓ $0.52) • Ni 1.6%: USD 70.19/wmt (↓ $0.57)

This week, ferrous metals edged higher before extending their pullback, with coking coal posting the largest decline. At the beginning of the week, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments issued a notice on launching a three-year campaign for energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and news that the U.S. and Iran were to sign a memorandum of understanding on the 19th improved market sentiment, lifting all ferrous metals. In the latter half of the week, expectations for an eighth round of coke price hikes materialized in the futures market. However, as steel mill profits narrowed further and spot coke had largely priced in the eighth increase, further upside room was limited. Combined with emerging expectations of peak hot metal output, futures began to correct and cost support weakened. Meanwhile, May macro data came in below expectations, dragging the entire ferrous metals complex lower...

June 18: North China ports: South African high-iron manganese ore: 31.4-32.1 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate: 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, down WoW; Gabonese ore: 40.6-41 yuan/mtu, down WoW; 46% Australian lumps: 43.3-43.8 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron ore: 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. South China ports: South African high-iron manganese ore: 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African semi-carbonate: 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese ore: 41-41.5 yuan/mtu, down WoW; 46% Australian lumps: 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron ore: 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. The manganese ore market remains stable but stagnant, with sluggish end-use demand and a dominant wait-and-see sentiment in trading.

The iron ore benchmark contract I2609 traded on a weak note today, finally closing at 747 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. Port spot prices remained broadly unchanged from yesterday.

[China Iron Ore Brief] The domestic iron ore concentrates market slightly weakened this week, with regional performance diverging. Prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, and Qianxi in Hebei were basically stable; the Chaoyang, Beipiao, and Jianping areas in western Liaoning saw a slight decrease of 1-5 yuan/mt; while east China bucked the trend with an increase of 10-15 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to next week, according to SMM tracking, steel mill profits are expected to be under pressure again following the implementation of the seventh round of coke price increases.

The most-traded iron ore contract was in the doldrums today. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 747 yuan/mt, down 1.13%. Port spot prices fell in tandem, dropping 10-15 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders showed moderate selling interest; steel mills remained cautious, purchasing as needed with weak restocking willingness. Overall market trading was sluggish, with scarce transactions. As the holiday approached, market trading turned mediocre. Spot and futures prices moved sideways. Looking ahead to next week, as hot metal production peaks and pulls back, iron ore demand expectations are likely to weaken; meanwhile, falling ocean freight rates eroded cost support. In the near term, iron ore prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

SMM, June 18: Metals markets: As of midday close, base metals on the domestic market were nearly all down. SHFE copper fell 0.66%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.13%. SHFE lead fell 0.27%. SHFE zinc rose 0.14%. SHFE tin fell 2.46%. SHFE nickel fell 0.38%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged lower, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.28%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 4.88%. The most-traded silicon metal futures fell 0.98%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.24%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.26%, rebar fell 1.04%, HRC fell 0.89%, and stainless steel fell 0.66%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract fell 6.26%, and the most-traded coke futures contract fell 4.21%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:45, LME metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 1.06%, LME aluminum and LME lead fell nearly 1%. LME zinc fell 1.12%, LME tin fell 2.7%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold fell 0.94%, and COMEX silver fell 2.17%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures fell 1.85%. In addition, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 2.63%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.88%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping freight futures (European route) rose 1.13% to 3,742.5 points. As of June 18, 11:45, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: The mainstream brand 0# zinc traded around 24,680-24,790 yuan/mt in the Ningbo market. Ningbo regular brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt against the 2607 contract, and at a premium of 30 yuan/mt against Shanghai spot cargoes. The mainstream in Ningbo was quoted against the 2607 contract... Macro front Domestic side: [Five Departments: Launch of 2026 NEV Promotion Campaign in Rural Areas] The General Offices (Comprehensive Departments) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and three other departments are launching the 2026 NEV promotion campaign in rural areas, deepening the auto trade-in program in villages. Within the NEV rural promotion campaign, a trade-in special section will be set up to publicize and promote subsidy policies, and provide "one-stop" services such as old vehicle inspection, evaluation and recycling, and assistance with subsidy applications, to further increase policy awareness and coverage and facilitate rural consumers' participation and access to subsidies. Rural consumers who trade in old cars for NEVs can apply for auto trade-in subsidies according to policy requirements, without any limit on the number of subsidy qualifications. [NDRC: to Strengthen Coordinated Planning of Computing Power Network, New-Type Power Grid, and New-Generation Communication Network During 15th Five-Year Plan Period] Li Chao, Deputy Director of the Policy Research Office and Spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said at a press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, greater emphasis will be placed on supply-demand matching and coordinated planning and construction of the computing power network, new-type power grid, and new-generation communication network. On the "hard investment" front, more effective computing-electricity synergy models will be explored to strengthen computing with electricity and promote electricity with computing; computing-network integration innovation will be enhanced, and direct connection lines between national hubs will be appropriately expanded to further reduce network transmission latency. On the "soft development" front, the monitoring and market-based scheduling of computing resources will be strengthened, and the construction of a nationwide integrated computing power network that is interconnected, universally accessible and easy to use, green, and secure will be accelerated. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS to Launch Optimized Foreign Currency Repo Service from June 22] The Interbank Market Clearing House Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Clearing House) and the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) issued a notice stating that to further optimize foreign currency repo trading and clearing services and meet market participants' needs for collateral management and diversified settlement methods, Shanghai Clearing House and CFETS will launch an optimized foreign currency repo service on June 22, 2026. During the term of a foreign currency pledged repo transaction, both parties may initiate substitution of pledged bonds for trades not yet due for settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system or the CFETS foreign exchange trading system, subject to counterparty confirmation. Prior to the settlement date, both parties may initiate cash settlement through the Shanghai Clearing House integrated business system, and Shanghai Clearing House will complete the buyout repo maturity settlement based on the cash settlement instruction. The specific launch arrangements by CFETS will be announced separately. (from Wallstreetcn APP) [PBOC Reverse Repos Net Inject 59.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 248 billion yuan seven-day reverse repo operations in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 188.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.15% to 100.24. US Fed officials hinted on Wednesday that they may need to raise interest rates soon rather than cut them, a sharp shift in thinking amid rapidly climbing inflation. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha stated that the pullback in energy prices may offer some relief in the coming months. However, he cautioned that the interest rate outlook has already decoupled from oil prices, which indicates deeper uncertainty over whether underlying inflation will cool enough to spare the US Fed from having to hike rates eventually. Beyond energy, Guha noted, two pressures remain: the ongoing pass-through from tariffs and cost spillovers from the investment boom in AI infrastructure. Claudia Sahm, chief economist at New Century Advisors and former Fed economist, said conditions that would normally prompt the Fed to respond to supply-driven inflation—namely an overheated labour market or unanchored inflation expectations—have yet to be seen. But she acknowledged that the case for action is building. “I can understand the view that the Fed should be ready to step in and hike if things worsen,” she said, adding that the Fed could move more swiftly than during the pandemic-era inflation surge because “they are already having that debate now.” According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the US Fed holding rates steady through July stands at 64.0% (versus 91.0% before the decision), with a 35.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike (versus 8.9%) and a 1% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike (versus 0%). For the year-end, the probability of unchanged rates is 14.2% (versus 38.2%), while the odds of cumulative hikes stand at 25bp (36.4%, versus 43.0%), 50bp (33.8%, versus 16.2%), 75bp (13.5%, versus 2.4%), and 100bp (2.1%, versus 0.1%). Citi expects the Fed to deliver 25bp rate cuts in October 2026, December 2026, and January 2027, shifting from its previous forecast of cuts in September, October, and December this year. Goldman Sachs Vice Chairman and former Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed may need to raise rates as early as September if inflation remains persistently elevated. “If the inflation data do not cool between now and September, it would be wise for the Fed to act in September or in the autumn. That would be the more prudent course,” Kaplan said. Markets turned hawkish after Fed Chairman Walsh signalled that the central bank remains focused on fighting inflation. Traders dumped short-term Treasuries, pushing some yields higher. Walsh’s remarks were reinforced by the personal projections of Fed members, half of whom pencilled in rate hikes by the end of 2026. Kaplan stated that if inflation remains stubborn, it indicates that monetary policy is still too loose. He also pointed out, “Fed policy actions are rarely one-offs; rate hikes often come in series of two or three. So I think if you’re going to act in September, you need to be prepared. There may be one or two more.” (Jin10 Data APP) Data Releases: Today will see the release of US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, the US May Conference Board leading index month-on-month change, Switzerland’s May trade balance, the Swiss National Bank policy rate as of June 18, the UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, the UK May unemployment rate, the UK May claimant count change, the UK Bank of England rate decision as of June 18, and the eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, among other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: China’s refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window. The Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections, Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference, the Swiss National Bank will announce its rate decision, and the Bank of England will release its rate decision and meeting minutes. It is worth noting that on June 18, China’s SGE, SHFE, ZCE, and DCE will have no night session trading due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. CME Group’s precious metals, energy, forex, equity indexes, and US Treasury futures contracts trading will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday, while ICE’s Brent crude oil futures contract trading will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on June 20 for the Juneteenth holiday. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.82% and Brent down 1.48%. Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday, declaring an end to the war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A US official stated that the agreement had officially taken effect, but it remained unclear whether Iran had immediately taken steps to fully reopen the strait. "Trump's signing of the MOU after the G7 meeting is another important step in the process of reopening the Strait of Hormuz," said Rajeev De Mello, Global Macro Portfolio Manager at Gama Asset Management, "This will further compress energy risk premiums, ease inflation concerns, and provide support for bond and equity markets after the Fed's initial reaction." (Wall Street CN) An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated: Iran must be able to sell its oil smoothly, with no obstacles in transportation and insurance, and must receive the proceeds from oil sales. Jinshi Data APP) According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EIA crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels last week, compared with estimates of a 5.2 million barrel decline by Bloomberg users and a 3.6918 million barrel draw by analysts, following a 7.227 million barrel drop the prior week. Inventories at the Cushing hub in Oklahoma have declined for eight consecutive weeks to around 20 million barrels, a level that most traders consider the operational minimum. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve also fell this week to about 340 million barrels, the lowest since 1983. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

The Singapore International Ferrous Week (SIFW) 2026 officially kicked off on June 16, 2026. Logan Lu, CEO of Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), attended the opening ceremony as a distinguished guest. Co-hosted by SGX and Green Esteel with support from Enterprise Singapore, the event runs from June 15 to June 19. Its core summit, Singapore Iron & Steel Conference, attracted over 350+ participants including miners and steel mills from Australia, Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea, serving as Southeast Asia’s flagship ferrous industry exchange platform. SGX CEO Loh Boon Chye delivered a keynote, highlighting trends in iron ore pricing mechanisms and financialization. He noted that physical trade evolution calls for diversified, differentiated pricing benchmarks to streamline risk management. Iron ore has grown into a mainstream investable commodity, included in major global indices; SGX has partnered with SummerHaven to launch tradable iron ore products. Leveraging strengths in physical trade, shipping, financing and risk hedging, Singapore acts as a neutral global commodity hub, the core rationale behind SIFW. Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry Alvin Tan likened geopolitical and economic headwinds to kryptonite weighing on the sector, yet underscored steel’s strong resilience. He outlined four growth pillars: tapping robust Asian steel demand led by Southeast Asia and India; utilizing Singapore’s full industrial and financial ecosystem for supply chain and price risk management; advancing AI and digitalization to boost operational efficiency; and accelerating low-carbon steel and maritime decarbonization amid tightening global carbon regulations. The Singapore New Energy Metals & Materials Forum , co-organized by Green Esteel and SMM , was launched alongside this event with the goal to advance low-carbon metal collaboration. Satvinder Singh, Deputy Secretary General of the ASEAN Economic Community, delivered the opening remarks for the forum, focusing on the industry resilience of the global ferrous metals sector amid multiple challenges and echoing the four development strategy recommendations mentioned above: deepening engagement in Asia, basing in Singapore, technology enablement, and green transformation. He also highlighted Singapore’s positioning as a commodities trading hub, as well as local supporting measures for industrial digitalization and the low-carbon transition. On the same day, Logan Lu arranged two important opening events. At 10:30 a.m., he also attended the opening of the inaugural Singapore New Energy Metals & Materials Forum, co-hosted by Green Esteel and SMM, and engaged in in-depth exchanges with enterprises across the industry chain in and outside China on core topics such as ferrous metals, the global supply chain layout for new energy metals, and the industry’s green and low-carbon transformation. The Singapore New Energy Metals & Materials Forum represents a strategic extension into the fast-growing track of new energy metals and new materials. The forum adopts an integrated “Forum + Exhibition” model, bringing together global industry leaders, policy researchers, investment institutions, traders, and technology R&D and manufacturing producers to jointly assess the industry’s future development direction. As the global energy transition continues to accelerate, new energy metals and high-end new materials are a critical foundation for the low-carbon economy and the development of renewable energy. Coupled with multiple variables such as changes in the geopolitical environment, the restructuring of critical minerals supply chains, and adjustments to the global trade system, the industry is facing new opportunities and challenges. Centered on six major themes—global macro economy, supply and demand for critical metals, industry chain integration, supply chain resilience, industry investment, and breakthroughs in new materials technologies—the forum promotes global resource matching and strategic cooperation across the new energy metals industry chain through keynote speeches, panel discussions, business matchmaking, and industry exhibitions, thereby driving the industry’s sustainable development.

SMM June 18 News: In metals markets: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets collectively rose. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.4% increase, LME tin rose 0.85%, LME aluminum gained 0.99%, SHFE zinc climbed 0.67%, and SHFE nickel added 0.6%. All other metals saw small fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose 0.52% and aluminum casting main contract rose 0.17%. Overnight, the ferrous metals complex generally fell. Iron ore dropped 1.13%, recording a three-day losing streak. HRC, rebar, and stainless steel all fell within 1%. Coking coal and coke both declined, with coking coal down 2.26% and coke down 1.25%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 1.79% and COMEX silver fell 2.93%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.84% and SHFE silver fell 1.36%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:43 AM on June 18: Macro Front China: [PBoC: Improve the Short-End Interest Rate Adjustment Mechanism] Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, stated that the short-end interest rate adjustment mechanism will be improved. Building on the temporary overnight repo and reverse repo tools established in July 2024, the mechanism for using the tools will be improved, and the operating rates will be adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo rate plus and minus 25 basis points, narrowing the corridor from 70 basis points to 50 basis points. The open market operations toolbox will be further enriched, and overnight reverse repo operation varieties will be added at appropriate times to better match the short-term liquidity needs of the banking system. (CCTV News) [PBoC Optimizes the Mechanism for Temporary Overnight Repo and Reverse Repo Open Market Operations] To flexibly and efficiently utilize temporary overnight repo and reverse repo open market tools, the People's Bank of China decided to optimize the operational elements effective immediately. The operation time is adjusted to 15:00-15:30 on working days, and the operating rates are adjusted to the 7-day reverse repo rate minus 25bp and plus 25bp, respectively. The rules for using the tools are further clarified. When the money market overnight rate (DR001) is persistently lower or higher than the corresponding tool's operating rate, the People's Bank of China will initiate corresponding operations based on the needs of primary dealers. (People's Bank of China) [Wu Qing‘s Speech at Lujiazui Forum: Expand the Scope of the Fifth Set of Standards to the AI Field, Support Hong Kong-Listed Companies for Domestic Listing] Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, intensively released policy signals at the 2026 Lujiazui Forum on the 17th, covering reforms to the tech listing system, capital market opening-up, guiding long-term capital, and AI regulation, outlining the regulatory layer's policy blueprint for deepening capital market reforms. In his speech, Wu Qing said that the scope of the fifth set of listing standards will be expanded to the artificial intelligence field, actively supporting the listing of high-quality AI large model companies, and supporting qualified Hong Kong-listed companies to list domestically. He also stated that research on promoting RMB foreign exchange futures pilot programs will be accelerated. He further stated that efforts will be made to enhance cross-border regulatory collaboration, support legal and compliant cross-border investment and financing activities, and lawfully crack down on various cross-border illegal activities. Guiding opinions for regulating the development of capital market AI will be released in due course, with strict investigations and punishments for illegal activities such as riding hot topics, hyping concepts, or even market manipulation and insider trading in the name of technology. US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.82% to 100.38. The US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting this week stood pat as widely expected. The post-meeting statement emphasized the commitment to price stability by reducing high inflation, and the dot plot reflected a strong hawkish bias among Fed policymakers. On Wednesday, June 17 US Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced after its FOMC meeting that it would keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. To date, after cutting rates at three consecutive meetings through last year-end, the FOMC has stood pat at all four monetary policy meetings in 2026. This decision was completely within market expectations. This was the first FOMC meeting with Warsh as Fed Chairman. Judging from the rate decision, his first major act in the new role was to significantly shorten the statement, including the rate guidance. The new statement emphasized only the inflation side of the dual mandate on employment and inflation. Its assessment of inflation and other economic areas was consistent with the previous one, reiterating that inflation remains high and noting that the Middle East conflict brings high uncertainty to the economy. Compared with the statement, the dot plot released after the meeting reflected an even more pronounced hawkish tilt: half of the Fed officials providing rate forecasts projected at least one rate hike this year. Bloomberg rates strategist Ira Jersey commented that given half of Fed officials foresee hikes, the market focusing on the dot plot makes the bear-flattening of the Treasury yield curve look logical. Nick Timiraos, a veteran Fed correspondent known as the "new Fed wire," described the dot plot as "very hawkish." He pointed out in the article title that the Fed held rates steady, but more officials expect the next move to be a hike. (Wall Street CN) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July stands at 64.0% (was 91.0% before the decision). The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 35.1% (was 8.9%), and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 1% (was 0%). For December, the probability that the Fed holds rates steady is 14.2% (was 38.2%), with the chances for a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 36.4% (was 43.0%), a 50-basis-point hike at 33.8% (was 16.2%), a 75-basis-point hike at 13.5% (was 2.4%), and a 100-basis-point hike at 2.1% (was 0.1%). (Jin10 Data App) Data: Today, China's May Swift RMB share in global payments, the US Federal Reserve's June 17 interest rate decision (upper bound), US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13, the US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June, and the US Conference Board Leading Index month-over-month change for May will be released. Also due are Switzerland's May trade balance and Swiss National Bank policy rate on June 18, the UK's ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May claimant count change, and the Bank of England‘s June 18 interest rate decision, as well as the Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted current account for April, among other data. In addition, China will open a new refined oil product pricing window. The Fed's FOMC will release its interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections. Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England will announce their interest rate decisions, with the BoE also releasing meeting minutes. Notably, on June 18, there will be no night trading session on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE in China due to the eve of the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 19, the NYSE will be closed for Juneteenth. On the same day, trading of precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, equity index, and US Treasury futures contracts on the US-based CME will close early at 01:00 Beijing Time on June 20 for Juneteenth. Also due to Juneteenth, trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts on the US-based ICE will close early at 01:30 Beijing Time on June 20. Crude Oil: As of the overnight close, both oil benchmarks fell. Brent crude fell 0.38% and WTI crude fell 0.35%. On June 17 local time, senior US officials read out the 14 terms of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war and promoting the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the media. According to the arrangement, both sides will begin 60 days of further negotiations this Friday (June 19) in Switzerland to reach a final agreement. The US commits that, effective immediately upon the signing of this memorandum and until sanctions are lifted, the US Treasury Department will issue exemption licenses for Iran's exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and derivatives, as well as related supporting services (including banking transactions, insurance, and transportation). (Jin10 Data App) Amid the chain reaction from easing Middle East tensions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) judged in its monthly oil market report released Wednesday that if a peace arrangement proves sustainable, the global crude market could shift to a clear oversupply next year. The IEA systematically assessed the impact of the end of the Iranian conflict for the first time in this report. The agency analyzed that as oilfields shut down for months due to the conflict gradually resume production, supply from the Gulf region will show a "gradual" recovery trend this year. On this basis, global crude oil production is expected to increase by 8 million barrels per day by next year, reaching a total scale of 110 million barrels per day. In contrast, global demand growth is estimated at about 2 million barrels per day, described as "relatively mild." The IEA noted in the report that this supply-demand mismatch will lead to a "massive surplus," which it suggested "could provide a welcome breathing space for the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted stocks or build new strategic reserves." Currently, oil inventories in OECD countries have fallen to their lowest levels since 1990. (Jin10 Data) The IEA also noted that oil prices experienced a sharp correction between May and mid-June, driven by market optimism about a peace deal and changes in Asian demand. Reduced crude oil procurement from Asia exerted clear downward pressure on prices. Affected by these combined factors, North Sea crude prices cumulatively fell by more than $40 per barrel during this period to around $82, indicating the market had already priced in expectations of increased supply and slowing demand. (Jin10 Data)