SMM June 13: Metal market: Overnight, base metals broadly rose in both domestic and overseas markets, with only LME nickel edging down 0.03%. SHFE tin led the gains with a 2.19% increase, while LME copper, LME zinc, LME tin, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1%—LME copper up 1.02%, LME zinc up 1.63%, LME tin up 1.75%, and SHFE zinc up 1.48%. The remaining metals saw gains within 1%. In addition, alumina's main contract rose 0.86%, and cast aluminum's main contract rose 0.45%. Overnight, ferrous metals broadly rose except for iron ore, which fell 0.13%, while rebar rose 0.44% and hot-rolled coil rose 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose 0.22% and coke rose 2.73%. Overnight, precious metals rebounded across the board, with COMEX gold up 3.06% and COMEX silver up 6.44%. However, due to significant earlier declines, COMEX gold still recorded a weekly loss of 2.87%, marking its second consecutive weekly decline; COMEX silver fell 1.42% on a weekly basis, marking its fifth straight weekly decline. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 2.3%, and SHFE silver rose 5.22%. Among them, SHFE gold fell 6.79% on a weekly basis, also its fifth consecutive weekly decline; SHFE silver tumbled 10.14% on a weekly basis, also recording a five-week losing streak. Bank of China issued a notice stating that, recently, global geopolitics and the US Fed's monetary policy have faced considerable uncertainties. Under the influence of multiple factors, precious metal price fluctuations in and outside China have further intensified. To protect the interests of clients involved in precious metal-related businesses such as gold accumulation, interest-bearing gold accumulation, precious metal accounts, two-way precious metal accounts, and agency services for personal trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, our bank particularly reminds you to guard against market risks, engage in rational investment based on your financial status and risk tolerance, reasonably control precious metal positions, and mitigate the impact of short-term price fluctuations through long-term investment, to prevent the risk of capital losses from market fluctuations. As of 8:31 am on June 13, the overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic front: [PBOC: Aggregate social financing rose by 17.48 trillion yuan in the first five months; new loans reached 9.11 trillion yuan; M2 money supply increased 8.6% YoY in May] Preliminary PBOC statistics show that the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in the first five months of 2026 was 17.48 trillion yuan, which was 1.16 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. Of this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9 trillion yuan, 1.38 trillion yuan less YoY; foreign currency loans to the real economy, in yuan terms, increased by 115.3 billion yuan, 211.6 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 103.1 billion yuan, 91.8 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; trust loans increased by 5.7 billion yuan, 57 billion yuan less YoY; undiscounted bankers' acceptances decreased by 17.2 billion yuan, 151.4 billion yuan more of a decrease YoY; net corporate bond financing was 1.67 trillion yuan, 757.7 billion yuan more YoY; net government bond financing was 5.67 trillion yuan, 634 billion yuan less YoY; and equity financing by non-financial enterprises on the domestic market was 230.5 billion yuan, 79.9 billion yuan more YoY. Over the first five months, renminbi loans increased by 9.11 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, of which short-term loans fell by 694.2 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 62.8 billion yuan; corporate (institutional) loans increased by 9.63 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans grew by 3.77 trillion yuan, medium and long-term loans grew by 4.99 trillion yuan, and bill financing increased by 699.9 billion yuan; loans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 279.7 billion yuan. Central bank data shows that at end-May, the broad money (M2) balance stood at 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 114.89 trillion yuan, up 5.5% YoY. Currency in circulation (M0) balance was 14.69 trillion yuan, up 11.9% YoY. Over the first five months, net cash injection reached 590.7 billion yuan. According to the central bank's official website, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on June 15, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan outright reverse repo operations via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price auction, with a tenor of six months (183 days), maturing on December 15, 2026. As for the US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index gained 0.1% to 99.79, down 0.28% for the week, with markets closely watching the peace talks between the US and Iran. On the 12th, multiple US media reported that a senior US government official said that day that the US has "80% to 85%" confidence in signing a memorandum of understanding with Iran in the coming days. Meanwhile, the US is "confident" that Israel will support this US-Iran MoU. According to reports from CNN, CBS, and others, the official said at a telephone press briefing, "We haven't quite reached the finish line, but we're very close." The official said the specific location and date for the US-Iran MoU signing have yet to be determined, but US President Trump previously suggested signing it in a European country, which could be an option. (Xinhua News Agency) On the 12th, Iranian media reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said that once Iran and the US complete the final stage of negotiations, the MoU will be signed and announced immediately. The first stage will be signed remotely via electronic means, "which could happen in the coming days." (Xinhua News Agency) In a report, HSBC analysts noted that the US dollar exchange rate is currently below the level implied by market expectations for US interest rates. They noted that as market expectations have recently shifted from anticipated rate cuts to possible rate hikes, the dollar's response has been relatively limited. They believe this likely reflects loose US financial conditions and market hopes for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They said the dollar needs a clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the US Fed fails to support rate hike expectations at next week's meeting, the dollar “could be in trouble”. (Jinshi Data APP) Traders expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, but see a more than 50% chance of a rate hike before year-end. On Thursday, after Trump’s comments on a potential deal, market pricing edged down slightly. Other currencies: Turner Chris, an analyst at ING, said that for EUR/USD trend, the Fed’s upcoming policy meeting may be more important than the ECB’s rate hike decision on Thursday. The ECB has already signaled further rate hikes, and the market is speculating about another hike in July. But he said that since the market has already priced in the ECB’s aggressive tightening cycle and is reluctant to push those expectations higher, the EUR/USD exchange rate has remained below 1.16. Moreover, the market believes the Fed may raise rates later this year. He said that unless the Fed pushes back against these expectations at its meeting on Wednesday, the dollar should stay firm. (Jinshi Data APP) Data: Next week, China will release China's May total retail sales of consumer goods YoY, China's May industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size YoY, China's May share of yuan in global payments via SWIFT, China's May total electricity consumption YoY (TBC), China's May total electricity consumption (TBC), and other data; the US will release the US Fed interest rate decision (upper bound) for the period to June 17, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, US June NAHB housing market index, ADP employment change for the week ended May 30, US May housing starts annualized total, US May building permits total, US May import price index MoM, US May retail sales MoM, US April business inventories MoM, US May pending home sales index MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ended June 13, US June Philly Fed manufacturing index, US May Conference Board Leading Economic Index MoM, and other data; the UK will release UK May CPI MoM, UK May retail price index MoM, UK ILO unemployment rate for the three months to April, UK May unemployment rate, UK May jobless claims change, UK Bank of England interest rate decision for the period to June 18, UK June Gfk consumer confidence index, UK May seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, and other data; the Eurozone will release Eurozone April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Eurozone June ZEW economic sentiment index, Eurozone May final CPI YoY, Eurozone May final CPI MoM, Eurozone April seasonally adjusted current account, and other data; Switzerland will release Switzerland May consumer confidence index, Switzerland May trade balance, Switzerland SNB policy rate for the period to June 18, and other data; Japan will release Japan BoJ target rate for the period to June 16, Japan May core CPI YoY, and other data; Canada will release Canada April wholesale sales MoM, Canada April retail sales MoM, and other data; Germany June ZEW economic sentiment index, Germany May PPI MoM, and Australia RBA interest rate decision for the period to June 16 will also be released. In addition, on June 15, China will see 218.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos mature, along with 600 billion yuan of six-month outright reverse repos. The National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes the monthly report on residential property prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT) will hold a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan (TBD). China will also open a new round of fuel price adjustment windows. On June 18, the Fed’s FOMC will release its interest rate decision and summary of economic projections; Fed Chairman Warsh will hold a monetary policy press conference. ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech. BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida Shinichi will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will release its interest rate decision. RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will release its interest rate decision, and the Bank of England (BOE) will release its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. The Group of Seven (G7) Summit opens and will run until June 17. Crude oil: Overnight, oil prices on both markets fell, with WTI down 3.9% and Brent down 3.96%. Expectations for a US-Iran peace agreement continued to heat up, putting oil prices under pressure and pulling them back. On a weekly basis, oil prices also fell, with WTI down 6.9% and Brent down 6.76%. In early US stock trading, according to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the Islamabad memorandum of understanding was "closer than ever" to being reached, causing oil prices to tumble and US stock indices to extend their intraday gains. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated that the two sides had now reached an understanding on most issues, and that Iran was internally finalizing the text of the memorandum of understanding. During the US midday, CCTV reported that Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said "the final agreed text of the peace agreement has been completed," and that the two countries were moving forward with implementing the next steps. Oil prices continued their decline. During US trading, stocks briefly dipped after Trump criticized Iran for leaking the terms of the deal, before Wall Street Insights noted that the UAE had reportedly agreed to unlock large-scale funds for Iran, with an initial tranche of roughly $3 billion already transferred, further boosting optimism about reaching an agreement. (Wall Street Insights) US Secretary of Energy Wright stated that about 7 million barrels of oil and fuel currently transit the Strait of Hormuz daily, roughly half the amount of cargo stranded at the onset of the Iran conflict. Wright said that currently no Iranian crude oil can be shipped out through the Strait of Hormuz. He added that if an agreement is reached, he expects all products to be able to pass freely through the Persian Gulf. Wright also noted that if no agreement is reached, the US military will resume transport along the route. Wright stated that the US will not impose an oil export ban to curb oil prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Secretary Wright said on Friday local time that US refiners can still absorb more Venezuelan crude oil. Wright stated that Venezuela currently sends about half of its total exports of 1.2 million barrels per day to the US, and that proportion could rise in the coming months. Wright also said that Iran is not currently exporting any oil or refined products. During the Middle East conflict, the US has actively filled the gap in oil exports. (Jinshi Data APP) Due to the most severe supply disruption on record caused by the Iran conflict, US emergency reserve crude oil exports have surged to an all-time high. Customs data compiled by Kpler Ltd. show that nearly 22 million barrels of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have been sold to markets outside China so far this year. This volume has already exceeded the previous high set four years ago. Although US emergency reserve crude oil exports are not uncommon, the large scale of this year's shipments shows that with the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing supply disruptions, global markets are increasingly relying on US supplies to tide them over. About one in every three barrels of crude oil flowing out of the emergency stockpile is exported. The volume heading overseas could be even higher, as the Trump administration is still releasing the full 172 million barrels of crude oil it committed to. This is part of a broader effort by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to help cushion the impact of the Iran war on global energy markets. (Wall Street CN)

This week, ferrous metals experienced divergent and volatile movements. At the start of the week, the four major stock indices all closed lower. Coking coal futures showed strong performance, with the most-traded contract 2609 hitting a high of 1,486.5 yuan/mt, while ore and steel futures trended weaker. Subsequently, hit by news about Shaanxi authorities ensuring coal supply for enterprises, coupled with persistently weak steel consumption, supply-demand imbalances gradually built up, leading to a sharp decline in coking coal and coke futures. In the latter half of the week, on the one hand, news of iron ore shipments and tightening market liquidity drove a stronger performance in its futures; on the other hand, the escalation of coking coal supply tightness once again pushed up coking coal, coke, and hot-rolled coil and rebar futures prices. In the spot market, the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented mid-week......

DCE iron ore futures trading was in the doldrums today. The most-traded contract, I2609, eventually closed at 764 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous day. Traders showed average enthusiasm in quoting; steel mills purchased as needed with few inquiries, and spot trading volume was low as of now.

This week, HRC prices fluctuated downward. The weekly average price edged lower, and overall trading volume declined. Supply side, rolling line maintenance decreased this week, and overall HRC production edged up. Demand side, apparent demand for HRC weakened again this week, as the downstream sector entered the off-season, with high temperatures and rainfall constraining project starts. Speculative demand retreated, end-user wait-and-see sentiment intensified, and actual procurement volumes gradually declined. Inventory side, this week SMM’s nationwide 86-warehouse (large sample) HRC social inventory stood at 4.279 million mt, down 72,900 mt or 1.68% WoW. By region, inventory in the Northeast and South China markets built up WoW, while East China, North China, and Central China markets saw destocking WoW. Inventory destocking provided support to HRC prices. Cost side, the average iron ore price edged lower, and the sixth round of coke price increases was implemented, slightly strengthening cost support for HRC. Looking ahead, costs may continue to increase, but as the off-season effect deepens, the pace of HRC destocking may narrow. In the short term, HRC prices are expected to move sideways. Overall, the most-traded HRC contract is expected to trade in the 3,340-3,410 range next week.

Today, the DCE iron ore futures trended in the doldrums. The most-traded I2609 contract closed at 764 yuan/mt, down 0.33% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices were unchanged from the previous day. Traders showed moderate quoting activity; steel mills purchased as needed with few inquiries, and spot trading volume was low so far. According to SMM survey data, as of today, total iron ore inventory at major Chinese ports reached 149.35 million mt, up 960,000 mt WoW. Inventory edged up slightly, while average daily port pick-up volume edged up by 68,000 mt to 3.268 million mt. Overall, iron ore supply was on the loose side, placing strong downward pressure on ore prices. Additionally, the seventh round of coke price increases was formally announced today, and steel mill profits are expected to contract, intensifying market bearish sentiment on iron ore prices. Overall, ore prices currently face significant resistance to gains and are expected to continue hovering at lows in the near term.

June 12: Northern ports: South African high-iron ore: 31.4-32.1 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore: 37.8-38.3 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; Gabonese ore: 41-41.6 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps: 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore: 37.5-38 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday. Southern ports: South African high-iron ore: 34.1-34.6 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; South African semi-carbonate ore: 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; Gabonese ore: 41.5-42 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday; 46% Australian lumps: 43.5-44 yuan/mtu, flat from last Friday; South African medium-iron ore: 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, down from last Friday. The manganese ore market is steady but stagnant, end-use demand is sluggish, and a wait-and-see sentiment prevails.

[Domestic Iron Ore Brief] Over the past week, China's iron ore concentrates market prices edged up slightly. By region, prices in Tangshan, Qian'an, Qianxi, and other areas in Hebei were basically flat; those in Chaoyang, Beipiao, Jianping, and other areas in western Liaoning edged down by 1-5 yuan/mt, while east China saw a decline of 15-20 yuan/mt. Looking ahead, domestic iron ore concentrates supply is expected to remain tight, providing some support for domestic prices.

From June 3 to June 5, the Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , with a strategic partnership established with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and the sub-forum, bringing together 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, with 120+ speakers sharing their insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG construction, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help the upstream and downstream of the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads：A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulphur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Gouvernment of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute

According to the SMM survey, on June 12, the total inventory at 10 ports tracked by SMM stood at 110.97 million mt, up 610,000 mt WoW. Coarse fines and concentrates showed inventory buildup, while lump and pellets experienced slight destocking.

SMM June 12 News: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 1.51%, SHFE tin rose 2.97%. SHFE nickel rose 0.94%. SHFE aluminum rose 1.06%. SHFE zinc rose 0.43%. SHFE lead fell 0.31%. In addition, casting aluminum linked futures rose 0.45%, alumina most-traded linked futures rose 1.45%. Lithium carbonate most-traded linked futures rose 3.85%. Silicon metal most-traded linked futures rose 0.63%. Polysilicon linked futures rose 5.91%. Ferrous metals all rose, iron ore rose 0.13%, rebar rose 0.66%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.74%, stainless steel rose 2.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.02%, coke most-traded contract rose 5.63%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:38 AM, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.01%, LME aluminum rose 0.54%, LME lead edged up. LME zinc rose 0.26%, LME tin rose 0.25%, LME nickel rose 0.67%. Precious metals: as of 11:38 AM, COMEX gold rose 2.63%, COMEX silver rose 5.36%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded linked futures rose 1.89%, SHFE silver most-traded linked futures rose 4.36%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded linked futures rose 3.99%, palladium most-traded linked futures rose 5.69%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 1.16% to 3,929.5 points. As of 11:38 AM on June 12, some futures midday quotes: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at 270 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, standard-quality copper reported at a premium of 210 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt, SX-EW copper reported at a premium of 150 yuan/mt up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,715 yuan/mt up 1,090 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,625 yuan/mt up 1,075 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory has declined for 9 consecutive days and has now hit a new low for the year... Macro front China: [PBOC's open market operations net injected 178 billion yuan on the day, and net injected 885.8 billion yuan this week] PBOC conducted 393 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with 215 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 178 billion yuan on the day. This week, PBOC conducted 1,112 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations, with 226.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, realizing a net injection of 885.8 billion yuan this week. (Jinshi Data APP) [Guangzhou: Fully Advance the Implementation of Major Projects Such as Intelligent Connected Vehicles and NEVs, Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors and Integrated Circuits, and Low-Altitude Economy] The “Guangzhou Commerce Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)” was released for public consultation. It highlighted the need to fully advance the implementation of major projects including intelligent connected vehicles and NEVs, ultra-high-definition video and new-type displays, green petrochemicals and new materials, intelligent equipment and robotics, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and low-altitude economy, and cultivate a group of leading intermediate product enterprises that are high-tech, manufacturing single champions, and specialized and sophisticated. Promote the accelerated development of intermediate product trade in foreign trade transformation and upgrading bases, and cultivate a number of well-known brands and “chain leader” enterprises. Support enterprises in using technologies such as the industrial internet, big data, and artificial intelligence for digital transformation, improving production efficiency and product quality, and driving the intermediate product trade to leap toward high-end and digital-intelligent development. (Jinshi Data APP) On the US dollar front: As of 11:38, the US dollar index rose 0.06% to 99.75. According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through June is 98.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 7.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate cut is 1.4%. Market expectations for a US Fed rate hike have been pushed back from December this year to January next year, and the possibility of a rate hike this year is no longer fully priced in. (Jinshi Data APP) Amid sustained inflationary pressure driven by the Iran war, US producer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in more than three years. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the US PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, the largest increase since November 2022, and rose 1.1% MoM. The core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose 4.9% YoY. The report highlighted the growing damage to the US economy from the energy price shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. As the conflict is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, businesses are passing on higher energy and transportation costs, and other goods and services are also becoming more expensive. Combined with data earlier this week showing that consumer prices in May rose at the fastest pace in three years, Thursday's PPI report may further strengthen market expectations for a US Fed rate hike in 2026. As the labour market appears to be regaining growth momentum, the US Fed is shifting its focus to curbing inflation. On the data front: Today will see the release of Germany May CPI MoM Final, UK April Three-Month GDP MoM, UK April Manufacturing Production MoM, UK April Seasonally Adjusted Goods Trade Balance, UK April Industrial Production MoM, France May CPI MoM Final, US June 1-Year Inflation Expectations Prelim, and US June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Prelim. In addition, watch for: the Huawei Developer Conference on June 12-14; Elon Musk’s commercial space company SpaceX plans to list on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 1.12% and Brent crude down 1.15%. The US and Iran may reach a preliminary agreement on a memorandum of understanding, causing oil prices to pull back slightly. According to CCTV, on June 11 local time, US President Trump posted on the social media platform “Truth Social” that, given that consultations with Iran had been submitted to the highest leadership of Iran and approved, he had canceled the strike and bombing operation originally planned for that night against Iran. According to the latest OPEC data, Iran’s crude oil production fell 19% last month, as the US blocked the country’s ports amid the ongoing conflict. Data from the monthly report released on Thursday showed that Iran’s daily output dropped by 546,000 barrels to 2.33 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, OPEC’s latest monthly report showed that the organization on Thursday lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, marking its second consecutive downward revision. Since the outbreak of the Iran war, the producer group has believed that the conflict’s impact on consumption has been consistently smaller than that estimated by other forecasters such as the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, both of which expect demand to decline in 2026. In addition, the report noted that the oil producer group raised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2027. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►