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As of the third week before the Chinese New Year, the pace of domestic hot-rolled coil inventory buildup remained relatively normal. According to SMM data, the average hot-rolled coil production in January 2026 was 3.18 million mt, down about 5% YoY, while the average apparent consumption was around 3.18 million mt, down about 4% YoY. Inventory side, based on data from the third week before the Chinese New Year, the inventory buildup pace in 2026 was 2% slower than the average of the past four years during the same period. From the seventh week to the third week before the holiday, this year’s buildup pace was slightly higher than the four-year average, indicating an overall normal inventory buildup pace for hot-rolled coil before the Chinese New Year. During the 2026 Chinese New Year period, the total inventory buildup is expected to reach around 20%-25%. Post-Chinese New Year, on the production side, according to SMM data, the average hot-rolled coil production in January 2026 was approximately 3.18 million mt. Affected by steel mill maintenance, the increase in hot-rolled coil production in February 2026 is expected to be relatively limited, with the average likely reaching around 3.19-3.23 million mt, down about 6% YoY compared to February 2025. On the inventory side, from 2022 to 2025, the total inventory buildup in the first week after the Chinese New Year ranged from 20% to 40% WoW compared to the last week before the holiday. It is projected that in the first week after the 2026 Chinese New Year, the total inventory will increase by approximately 20%-25% WoW compared to the last week before the holiday, which may be relatively close to last year's buildup level. However, as the current inventory level is already 19% higher YoY, the market is expected to continue facing significant pressure after the Chinese New Year.

Nickel prices retreated after a rapid rise this week. Early in the week, driven by macro tailwinds from a weaker US dollar index and high market sentiment in the nonferrous metals sector, nickel prices hit new highs, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rising to 152,500 yuan/mt and LME nickel climbing to $19,160/mt. However, on Friday, both macro sentiment and capital flows cooled significantly, leading to a sharp pullback in nickel prices. By Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract settled at 140,000 yuan/mt, down 3.8% WoW, while LME nickel fell 4.3% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 148,430 yuan/mt this week, down 2,400 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel averaged 6,800 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel ranged from -500 to 400 yuan/mt, showing a notable decline WoW. Overall spot trading was muted this week, as most end-users had completed their pre-holiday stockpiling. On the macro front, the US Fed paused rate hikes in its January meeting, keeping rates at 3.5-3.75%, while Trump announced he would name the next Fed Chairman next week. China and the UK achieved a series of positive outcomes during UK Prime Minister Starmer's visit to China. Domestically, China's GDP exceeded 140 trillion yuan in 2025, up 5.0% YoY, meeting expectations, with Q4 growth up 4.5% YoY. In the short term, speculative sentiment showed signs of fading, and nickel prices are expected to undergo a phased correction next week, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract likely trading between 130,000 and 145,000 yuan/mt. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at around 1,700 mt this week, down 500 mt WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 71,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of roughly 4,300 mt WoW.

SMM January 30 News, Starting in December 2024, capital inflows pushed SHFE aluminum prices to record highs. On January 30, 2026, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract reached a highest price of 26,185 yuan/mt. In January 2026, the average SMM A00 aluminum ingot price recorded 24,085 yuan/mt, also hitting a historical peak. Stimulated by high prices, global aluminum supply accelerated. Domestically, two new aluminum projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia were energized and began production in December 2025 and are currently ramping up. Beyond these, production resumptions from idle capacity and capacity replacement projects may be encouraged, contributing to output earlier than planned. Overseas, there are signs that the planned commissioning and full production timelines for the Indonesian aluminum project may be brought forward. Under optimistic expectations, Indonesia's operating aluminum capacity is projected to reach around 2.3-2.5 million mt by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the dampening effect of high aluminum prices on downstream consumption is also evident. About two months before the 2026 Chinese New Year, social inventories of aluminum ingots in China began to accumulate. As of January 29, 2026, social aluminum ingot inventory reached 782,000 mt, up 330,000 mt YoY compared to the third week before the 2025 Chinese New Year holiday. The decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum nationwide far exceeded expectations, with total casting ingot volume in January increasing by 170,000 mt MoM from December. According to SMM estimates, the proportion of liquid aluminum in February is expected to drop by 7.7 percentage points MoM, and monthly casting ingot volume is projected to increase by another 170,000 mt MoM. Considering historical inventory buildup trends, casting ingot volume expectations, and current price levels, SMM projects that if aluminum prices remain at current high levels and all ingots can be smoothly delivered to social warehouses, t he peak social inventory of aluminum ingots in China after the 2026 Chinese New Year is expected to reach around 1.3-1.5 million mt , the highest in nearly five years. Post-holiday aluminum prices are likely to face significant inventory pressure. However, it is important to note that if the Mozambique aluminum plant reduces or halts production as scheduled in March, the combination of positive news and macro tailwinds is expected to keep aluminum prices firm in the short term. Conversely, if the Mozambique aluminum plant successfully signs a new power contract, allowing production to continue, coupled with high inventory levels, aluminum prices both domestically and internationally may experience a pullback. It is essential to continuously monitor the commissioning progress of new aluminum projects in Indonesia, the production dynamics of the Mozambique aluminum plant, and the performance of domestic aluminum ingot inventories.

According to reports, as of January 29, the in-factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands was 28,200 mt, an increase of 5,800 mt WoW. Recently, primary lead smelters in Hunan, Jiangxi, and other regions resumed production after maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply WoW. However, demand for lead-acid batteries remained sluggish, resulting in limited stockpiling by downstream enterprises before the Chinese New Year, as per tradition. Some enterprises even suspended production around the end of January. Trading in the spot market for lead was sluggish, and smelters' in-factory inventories shifted to an upward trend. Meanwhile, the price center of lead declined again this week, prompting suppliers to actively expand discounts for spot cargo sales or transfer lead ingots to social warehouses. Additionally, due to air pollution control measures in Henan, Shandong, and other regions, vehicle transport was partially restricted, causing some enterprises' inventories to accumulate.

SMM Jan. 30: Secondary lead suppliers maintained firm offers due to cost pressure, diminishing the price advantage of secondary lead. Additionally, weak end-use consumption led to low stockpiling willingness among downstream battery enterprises before the Chinese New Year. Weekly finished product inventories of secondary lead rose by 1,500 mt WoW to 35,000 mt. Most battery producers have completed pre-holiday stockpiling, with some planning to pick up goods under long-term contracts and halting spot order purchases. As production cuts and halts expand among secondary lead smelters and supply tightens, the pace of finished product inventory buildup is expected to slow down next week. 》Order to View SMM Metal Spot Historical Prices

SMM data shows that this week (January 26-30, 2026), as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, the most-traded stainless steel contract (SS2603) saw a significant pullback due to risk-averse capital exiting. By January 30, the contract price pulled back to 14,160 yuan/mt, down 560 yuan/mt (-3.80%) from the closing price of 14,720 yuan/mt on the previous Friday. At the beginning of the week, the futures tried to maintain a high level, but as the holiday neared, the bulls' willingness to take profits increased, coupled with pressure from bears, leading to a substantial decrease in open interest. The concentrated withdrawal of funds caused the futures to quickly give up earlier gains, with the price center returning to a rational range. From a macro perspective, the policy tone remained loose, but had limited impact on the pre-holiday market. Overseas, the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5-3.75% in its January meeting, and Powell stated that policies would be adjusted based on data, and if tariff inflation eases, there could be relaxation, which was in line with market expectations. Domestically, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng clearly stated that a moderately loose monetary policy would be implemented in 2026, with room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts; previously, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan worth of one-year MLF operations to maintain ample liquidity. Despite a generally warm macro environment, the approach of the long holiday led to a dominant risk-averse sentiment, guiding short-term fund flows, and the macro tailwinds failed to prevent the pre-holiday capital withdrawal. Fundamentally, the spot market has largely entered a "closed" state, with inventory showing a slight rebound. SMM's latest data indicates that social inventory rose to 853,000 mt this week, an increase of about 9,000 mt from 844,100 mt last week, indicating a small inventory buildup. In terms of spot transactions, pre-holiday stockpiling demand from downstream sectors was not evident, and trading remained sluggish; by January 30, most enterprises had stopped taking orders, and traders were gradually closing, entering a "price without market" holiday mode. High prices suppressed pre-holiday stockpiling enthusiasm, and the lack of demand made it difficult for spot prices to support the previous high futures premium. As the futures pulled back, the spot-futures price spread contradiction slightly eased. The cost side still showed strong resilience, forming a stark contrast with the futures pullback. By January 30, the price of high-grade NPI continued to rise to 1,054 yuan/mtu, up another 11.5 yuan from the previous week; high-carbon ferrochrome was raised to 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content). The uncertainty of Indonesia's ore quota policy continued to support raw material prices, keeping steel mill production costs high. Despite a significant pullback in the futures, spot raw materials did not loosen, meaning that upon return after the holiday, the high cost line will remain the strongest bottom support for stainless steel. In summary, this week's market performance was typical of "pre-holiday capital risk aversion" and "profit-taking."Against the backdrop of a closed spot market and stagnant demand, funds opted to take profits, leading to a significant correction in futures. However, the continuous rise in NPI prices has capped the deep downside room for valuations, and while the inventory of 853,000 mt saw a slight increase, overall pressure remains manageable. Looking ahead to the post-holiday market, the focus of contention will shift from "fund sentiment" to "the race between costs and inventory buildup." Attention should be paid to whether the extent of inventory accumulation during the Chinese New Year exceeds expectations, as well as the downstream acceptance of high-cost pricing after the holiday. In the initial post-holiday period, futures are expected to seek stabilization supported by costs, while vigilance is warranted against volatility risks arising from inventory changes.

SMM reported on January 29 that this week (January 23-29, 2026), the total inventory in the two major stainless steel markets of Wuxi and Foshan showed a further trend of inventory buildup, decreasing from 844,100 mt on January 22, 2026, to 853,000 mt on January 29, 2026, an increase of 1.05% WoW. Social inventory of stainless steel continued to rise this week. Although the overall level remained relatively low, the accumulation trend was clear. Current prices are already at high levels, lacking further upward momentum, and the futures market showed weak upward drive. Coupled with strong fear of high prices among downstream end-users, purchasing enthusiasm remained under pressure. Approaching the year-end, most downstream rigid pre-holiday stockpiling was completed, leading to a significant weakening in purchasing intensity this week. Furthermore, enterprises rushed to ship goods in December to seize the export policy window, which overdrawn January's export demand in advance. Even with the Chinese New Year approaching, the restocking momentum from the traditional pre-holiday stockpiling season was extremely limited and had minimal impact, with end-users' substantive willingness to purchase remaining persistently low. From the perspective of goods flow, orders from futures-spot trading institutions arrived successively, but most accumulated in the circulation channels without effectively flowing to end-users. Simultaneously, downstream operations gradually shut down for the holiday as the Chinese New Year approached, with market fear of high prices and holiday wind-down mentality intertwining, further suppressing purchasing demand. Although there are expectations for maintenance and production cuts at stainless steel mills in February, under the dominance of short-term weak demand, inventory still showed an accumulation trend. Overall, the current market's supply-demand imbalance structure is prominent, and the wait-and-see atmosphere continues to intensify.

This week, precious metals prices surged beyond expectations. As monthly inventory clearance by state-owned enterprises approached and some traders closed their books at month-end, liquidity in the spot market remained tight. At the beginning of the week, spot market premiums over TD in Shanghai were quoted at a moderate 300-500 yuan/kg. However, as the spot-futures price spread widened towards the weekend, suppliers held back sales, quoting high premiums of 1,000 yuan/kg over TD. It was reported that in the Shenzhen market, a small amount of silver material traded at high premiums of 1,500-1,800 yuan/kg over TD, but transactions were limited. Amid the sharp rise in silver prices this week, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time procurement, while some enterprises suspended production and adopted a cautious wait-and-see approach, leading to a slight cooling in spot market transactions. On the inventory side, social inventory of silver continued to decline this week, with some social inventories nearly depleted by mid-week and only a small amount of spot cargo replenished by the weekend. Approaching the month-end, some smelters had not yet shipped their February long-term contracts, reducing the availability of circulating spot cargo. The risks of price volatility and expectations of a short squeeze driven by the low inventory environment persisted.

SMM social inventory of copper cathode continued to climb since the end of 2025, reaching a phase high of 330,200 mt on January 22. This week (January 26) data showed the first decline, down 5,700 mt MoM from January 22, with inventories in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Guangdong all dropping back slightly. Meanwhile, copper prices retreated from highs since mid-January, with the SMM #1 copper cathode average price falling from 104,000 yuan/mt on January 14 to around 101,400 yuan/mt on January 27. On the surface, the pattern of "falling prices and declining inventory" aligns with the traditional logic of demand improvement. However, considering spot market performance, the destocking driver did not stem from robust end-use consumption. In contrast to the inventory decline, the spot market has shown a clear discount structure since early January, which can be divided into two phases: As the 2601 contract approached delivery, influenced by suppliers tightening spot availability to deliver warrants, spot discounts quickly narrowed from an average discount of 65 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month, turning into a premium structure between January 12 and 15, with the peak reaching an average premium of 200 yuan/mt. However, this premium was actually a "structural premium" driven by delivery behavior, not accompanied by a substantial recovery in downstream consumption. After the contract rollover on January 16, market logic shifted rapidly, and spot prices against the 2602 contract immediately turned to an average discount of 125 yuan/mt. Under the dual pressure of persistently high inventory and weak downstream consumption, spot selling pressure continued to increase. Although the widening Contango price spread between futures contracts provided some support for spot premiums/discounts, it still could not reverse the overall market oversupply situation, with the average discount falling to a recent low of 265 yuan/mt by January 27. Downstream purchasing only occurred occasionally when copper prices touched psychological price levels, indicating weak and non-resilient demand. Based on spot market performance, the recent decline in social inventory is mainly due to a temporary reduction in arrivals in north China, combined with some rigid demand for cargo pick-up triggered by the earlier pullback in copper prices to key levels. However, the driving force behind this destocking is clearly insufficient. The spot market continues to experience deep discounts and sluggish trading, with no sustained improvement. Downstream consumption is limited to buying the dip rather than trend stockpiling, indicating that demand is highly sensitive to prices and lacks resilience. At the same time, supply pressure has not dissipated. Domestic smelters are maintaining high operating rates, and supply remains ample in major consumption areas such as east China. Therefore, this inventory decline should be viewed more as a result of fluctuations in the pace of arrivals and the short-term release of flexible demand, rather than a signal of substantial and sustainable recovery in end-use consumption. According to SMM communication with enterprises: Trader 1: Recently, there is little intention to sell, and they plan to consider selling only when discounts exceed 200 yuan/mt. Now that the price spread between futures contracts has widened, it is enough to cover rollover costs, and they are even considering stockpiling until April for sales. Trader 2: Currently, both supply and demand are weak. Everyone is worried that smelters will continue shipments. If we purchase too much now, we will have limited funds left. If smelters suddenly release several thousand metric tons of goods at a discount of more than 300 yuan/mt between February 8 and 10 before the Chinese New Year, everyone will regret it, as they won’t be able to purchase at even lower prices. That’s why everyone is staying calm now. Downstream 1: We’ve observed that when the front-month copper contract is around 99,500 yuan/mt, end-users become more active, and orders increase slightly. However, most actual orders are placed near 99,000 yuan/mt. Customers are like that—when they see a lower price, they want an even lower one. Downstream 2: Recently, non-registered copper cathode supply has been relatively tight. Because the price spread is indeed large, producers tend to bid up prices, so we generally prefer to purchase earlier. We’re not holding much inventory now and are buying on a daily basis. Looking ahead to the market around the Chinese New Year, the "triple suppression" pattern of high inventory, wide price spreads between futures contracts, and deep discounts is expected to be difficult to reverse in the short term. Before the Chinese New Year: Wide price spreads amid high inventory will strengthen suppliers’ willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, thereby suppressing spot market liquidity and buying interest. Spot premiums/discounts lack momentum for recovery and are expected to remain in a discount structure. If smelters engage in distress selling, discounts may widen further. After the Chinese New Year: The key validation point for the market will be the extent and speed of post-holiday inventory buildup. If significant inventory accumulation occurs, it will reinforce the perception of weak demand and may force spot premiums/discounts to move even lower.

SMM Jan. 28: Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 350-120 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 235 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 410-390 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 400 yuan/mt, also flat from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,515 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,350 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Inventory in Guangdong ended four consecutive declines and increased slightly, mainly due to increased arrivals and weakened consumption. As copper prices changed little and downstream restocking willingness remained relatively low nearing month-end, spot premiums eventually remained flat from yesterday. Today, purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 1.98, up 0.04 from the previous trading day, while selling sentiment was 3.74, up 0.05 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). As of 11:00, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a discount of 350 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 400 yuan/mt. Overall, inventory ended consecutive declines and increased again, while spot trades were mediocre and premiums remained flat from yesterday.

Today, the SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the SHFE copper 2602 contract were quoted at a discount of 310-220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 265 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price was 101,140-101,600 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the SHFE copper 2602 contract opened lower with a gap and trended downward with fluctuations. It opened with a quick gap-down decline, then rebounded slightly briefly, before weakening again and falling to a low of 101,610 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated between 101,860 and 102,200 yuan/mt, closing at 101,880 yuan/mt. The Contango spread between nearby contracts was between 340 and 270 yuan/mt. The import loss for the current SHFE copper contract month was between 610-730 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the morning session, suppliers offered Guixi and Jinchuan (plate) at discounts of 220-150 yuan/mt. Standard-quality copper was offered at discounts of 300-240 yuan/mt. Among these, Zhongtiaoshan, Yuguang, and Jintong Yusheng started to trade at discounts of 300-280 yuan/mt, while Xiangguang, Lufang, and JCC were offered at a discount of 240 yuan/mt. Registered SX-EW copper supply was tight, thus trading at discounts of 350-330 yuan/mt. Near month-end, some suppliers engaged in destocking, while some buyers still had demand for cargoes with invoices dated this month, leading to higher spot prices for such cargoes. Jinchuan ISA Yongchang, etc., traded quickly at a discount of 330 yuan/mt. In the Changzhou area, supplies such as Xikuang and Tianfu appeared, while northern sources were difficult to sell; all are expected to arrive before the Chinese New Year. Entering the second session, suppliers lowered prices for some supplies. Zhongtiaoshan, Zhongjin, Jintong Yusheng, Yuguang, etc., traded at discounts of 330-280 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the inhibitory effect of high copper prices on downstream consumption continues to manifest, leading to weak consumption and consequently inventory accumulation domestically. High inventory continues to widen the price spread between futures contracts, strengthening suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses, thereby suppressing spot market liquidity and buying enthusiasm, leaving spot discounts lacking momentum for recovery. Although downstream buying the dip exists, its scale is insufficient to reverse the overall discount structure. Therefore, Shanghai spot copper discounts are expected to remain under pressure.

SMM Jan. 27: Today, spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract were at a discount of 350-120 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 235 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 410-390 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 101,505 yuan/mt, down 1,155 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,340 yuan/mt, down 1,180 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking the fourth consecutive drop, mainly due to reduced arrivals. Despite the continuous inventory decline, suppliers were eager to sell and continued to actively lower prices, causing spot premiums to fall further today, with overall trading activity remaining sluggish. Procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong today was 1.94, up 0.01 from the previous trading day, while sales sentiment was 3.69, up 0.1 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). As of 11:00, high-quality copper against the front-month contract was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, standard-quality copper at a discount of 350 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper at a discount of 400 yuan/mt. Overall, despite the continuous inventory decline, suppliers' eagerness to sell led to a further decline in spot premiums.

DCE iron ore futures weakened today, with the most-traded contract I2605 settling at 784.5 yuan/mt, down 0.95% from the previous session. Spot prices fell about 2-7 yuan/mt. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was moderate, mostly following the market trend, while steel mills purchased as needed with many inquiries, resulting in an overall average trading atmosphere. On fundamental data, according to SMM shipping data, global iron ore shipments totaled 29.84 million mt last week, up 310,000 mt (+1%) WoW. Shipments from Australia and other non-mainstream origins slightly declined, while Brazil's shipments rebounded WoW. Meanwhile, China's port arrivals reached 27.41 million mt, up 730,000 mt (+2.7%) WoW. On basic data, supply side, China's port inventory reached a three-year high, with the inventory buildup trend showing no clear inflection point, and oversupply pressure continued to accumulate. Demand side, despite the Chinese New Year restocking window opening, steel mills' restocking strategy focused mainly on varieties with ample inventory, lacking acceptance for high-priced resources, which prevented restocking activities from providing strong support to overall ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices were expected to fluctuate rangebound with a weak bias in the near term.

SHFE zinc's most-traded 2603 contract opened at 24,800 yuan/mt. After opening, a tug-of-war between longs and shorts kept SHFE zinc fluctuating rangebound near the daily average line. It finally closed up at 24,725 yuan/mt, an increase of 140 yuan/mt, or 0.57%. Trading volume increased to 208,000 lots, and open interest rose by 1,452 lots to 122,000 lots. SHFE zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, supported by various moving averages below. Domestically, production cuts at some smelters and a continued decline in social inventory provided some support for zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.