SMM Alumina Morning Comment on June 3 Futures Market: The night session was not open last Friday. The most-traded ag2509 futures contract opened at 2,955 yuan/mt in the daytime session, with a high of 2,973 yuan/mt, a low of 2,930 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,962 yuan/mt, up 1 yuan/mt or 0.03% from the previous close, with an open interest of 320,000 lots. Ore: As of May 30, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $74.38/mt, up $0.27/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Industry News: Bauxite Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics as of May 30, the total bauxite inventory at nine domestic ports was 21.56 million mt, up 580,000 mt from the previous week. According to Nanshan Aluminum, the raw material grinding and digestion unit hot commissioning for the Phase III alumina project of Indonesia Bintan Alumina Company was recently initiated simultaneously, marking the official entry of the project into the trial production stage and injecting new momentum into the company's development. Data released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed that global alumina production in April 2025 was 12.407 million mt, with a daily average production of 413,600 mt. IAI stated that China's estimated alumina production in April 2025 was 7.384 million mt. Alumina Production: According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in May 2025 (31 days) increased by 2.66% MoM and 4.06% YoY. As of the end of May, China's existing metallurgical-grade alumina capacity was approximately 110.82 million mt, with the actual operating capacity down 0.46% MoM and an operating rate of 77.3%. Basis Report: According to SMM data, the SMM Alumina Index premium against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 on May 30 was 314.53 yuan/mt. Warrant Report: On May 30, the total registered alumina warrant volume decreased by 11,412 mt from the previous trading day to 126,700 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Shandong region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 601 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Henan region decreased by 1,200 mt from the previous trading day to 300 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Guangxi region remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 30.01 million mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Gansu region decreased by 3,601 mt from the previous trading day to 1,504 mt. The total registered alumina warrant volume in the Xinjiang region decreased by 6,611 mt from the previous trading day to 121,300 mt. Overseas Market: As of May 30, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $21.95/mt. The USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.21. This price translates to approximately 3,275 yuan/mt at domestic major ports, which is 1 yuan/mt lower than the domestic alumina price, indicating that the alumina import window is gradually opening. Summary: The weekly operating capacity of alumina continued to rebound, reaching 86.67 million mt/year as of last Thursday, up WoW. This has further alleviated the pressure on spot supply, and the upward momentum of spot prices has slowed down. Overseas alumina transactions have been relatively sluggish recently, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have shifted from losses to profits, and the domestic alumina import window is gradually opening. In the short term, with the gradual resumption of production of some alumina facilities that were under maintenance and experiencing production cuts, the supply pressure of alumina is expected to gradually ease. The average profit of the alumina industry has entered a profitable state, and the market has strong expectations for alumina production resumptions. Alumina futures prices have taken the lead in pulling back, which may drive spot prices to weaken. In the future, it is necessary to continuously monitor changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not rely on this information to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]

Data released by the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed that global alumina production in April 2025 was 12.407 million mt, with a daily average production of 413,600 mt. The IAI stated that China's estimated alumina production in April 2025 was 7.384 million mt.

On Thursday, April 24, 2025, US President Donald Trump signaled a possible easing of trade tensions with China, boosting market sentiment. As a result, aluminium price has grown in India by 1.32 per cent to INR 234.5 (USD 2.75).

As the world economy is turning towards renewable energy solutions, companies worldwide are attempting to figure out what that does to metals' supply chains of metals such as aluminum, copper, and zinc. These metals, the foundation of renewable energy infrastructure, battery technology, and electric vehicles (EVs), are more important than ever. But with that new demand come new issues, like resource availability, geopolitical tensions, and the ecological costs of extracting and processing them.

Aluminium is an essential component of the global economy, and this week, the upstream sector witnessed some significant events. For instance, India's bauxite mining sector has grown in the non-ferrous segment, achieving an output of 23.93 million tonnes in FY 2023-2024.

In August 2024, the global aluminium industry experienced notable fluctuations in pricing, reflecting a complex interplay of market dynamics and economic factors.

Aluminum, with its widespread applications in industries like automotive, aerospace, and construction, is a vital commodity in the global economy. The market for this versatile metal has experienced significant fluctuations due to factors such as global events, supply and demand dynamics, and geopolitical influences. In April 2020, aluminum prices dropped by almost 35% compared to two years prior, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on demand. However, a year later, prices rebounded as recovering sectors increased demand. The Asian market, particularly China, has shown stability with monthly price increases, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) has seen an upward trend in aluminum prices. External factors, including economic policies, trade agreements, and technological advancements, significantly affect aluminum pricing. The shift towards sustainable practices, especially in China's green economy, has increased demand for lightweight materials like aluminum, potentially leading to higher prices due to supply shortages. Platforms like Metal.com provide real-time data and services that help stakeholders make informed decisions and predictions about future aluminum prices. Short-term forecasts indicate fluctuating prices due to global demand and supply shifts, while long-term trends are likely to be influenced by environmental concerns and sustainability efforts.

China is the highest alumina producer, contributing around 58 per cent of the world’s output.

According to the International Aluminium Institute survey, world alumina production in December 2023 stood at 12.298 million tonnes, bringing the whole year output at 141.924 million tonnes, slightly down from 142.23 million tonnes in 2022.

The world primary aluminium production has recorded an annual increase of 2.25 per cent for 2023, reaching 70.593 million tonnes at the end of December, found the International Aluminium Institute (IAI).