Published：June 29, 2026 1. Review – First Test of the 4,000-USD Mark As feared, the falling 50-day moving average (4,468 USD) has posed an insurmountable hurdle for the price of gold in recent months. Since the last bounce off this moving average on May 12 at $4,773, the downtrend has accelerated significantly. In particular, breaking below the round $4,400 mark led to a sharp sell-off in the first week of June, bringing the price down to $4,023. Although the subsequent recovery was swift, reaching $4,382 within a few days, the Fed’s interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference under new Fed Chair Warsh once again triggered strong selling pressure. Within just seven days, the gold price plummeted to $3,959. The psychologically important $4,000 mark could no longer withstand the selling pressure, and gold fell to its lowest level since early November 2025. 1.1 $4,000 as a Key Level Even though price declines on the downside have recently accelerated significantly, the bears have overall made only slow progress on the downside so far. This week, the low set on March 23 was breached by $140. It took the bears about three months to achieve this! At the same time, however, the broader correction that began in late January remains unquestionably intact. Attention is now focused on the broad support zone around the $4,000 mark. Given the sometimes panicked sentiment of the past few days, a bottoming process typical of early summer is certainly possible here. The erratic and volatile back-and-forth of recent weeks supports this view. However, considerable correction potential has now built up in the stock markets, which is likely to weigh on precious metal prices as well in the event of a significant pullback. For now, patience remains the order of the day. Experience shows that precious metal prices often find a bottom in June or July, from which a substantial summer rally usually begins. For this to happen, however, the gold price would need to hold the $4,000 level and the silver price the $55 level. Alternatively, prices could drop another notch lower first. 2. Chart Analysis: Gold in U.S. Dollars 2.1 Weekly Chart: Bottom Formation in the Coming Days and Weeks Gold in U.S. dollars, weekly chart as of June 27, 2026. Source: Tradingview Since reaching an all-time high of $5,602 at the end of January, the gold market has been in a healthy, yet increasingly complex, correction phase. With the recent low of $3,959, the price has now fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend (from $1,615 to $5,620). The next relevant retracement levels are at $3,608 (50 %) and $3,138 (61.8 %). This makes it clear that the worst-case scenario we have repeatedly outlined—in the range around $3,500—remains valid and still cannot be ruled out. In the short term, the weekly candles continue to slide southward along the lower weekly Bollinger Band ($3,997). However, one to a maximum of three additional weeks of strong downward pressure are likely to represent the maximum scenario for the bears’ run. Afterward, a bottoming process and the onset of a recovery—or a summer rally—are to be expected. At the same time, after nearly five months of correction and a price decline of over 29%, the weekly stochastic oscillator is clearly in oversold territory. Against this backdrop as well, the remaining downside risk appears significantly limited over the coming days and weeks. Should the correction nevertheless continue in the broader picture, the oscillator would first have to recover. Accordingly, the odds are good that the gold price will form a bottom now or in July in the range between 3,800 and 4,000 USD. Overall, the weekly chart remains bearish but is heavily oversold. A recovery or counter-movement is already on the horizon and could begin in July or August. In the bigger picture, however, the correction could drag on and bring new lows in the fall. 2.2 Daily Chart: New Buy Signal Gold in U.S. dollars, daily chart as of June 27, 2026. Source: Tradingview On a daily basis, the price of gold has lost contact with the still-slowly-rising 200-day moving average (USD 4,474) over the past three weeks. The gap widened at times to nearly 13%, underscoring the currently weak technical condition. Only a return above this closely watched moving average would significantly brighten the chart picture. By the end of the week, however, prices had recovered noticeably and closed the week at $4,088. The recovery that has begun should initially lead to the $4,120 range and, ideally, could extend directly to around $4,220 without any major pullbacks. The positive divergence in the daily stochastic is supportive here, as the indicator no longer fully confirmed the recent low of $3,959. In addition, the oscillator clearly reached its oversold zone. This suggests that a bottoming process may already have begun. Nevertheless, it cannot be ruled out that, in the course of the typical early-summer volatility, there will be further pullbacks before a sustained counter-movement can take hold. Overall, the daily chart could thus be on the verge of a trend reversal. The daily stochastic has turned upward in the oversold zone and offers further upside potential. However, a final pullback below the $4,000 mark down to the area around $3,840 remains possible. 3. Gold Futures Market Structure Commitments of Traders Report for the gold futures contract dated June 23, 2026. Source: Sentimenttrader According to the weekly Commitments of Traders Report (COT Report) published by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), commercial traders held a cumulative short position of 207,563 gold futures contracts at the closing price of $4,331 on June 16. The sharp price decline of the past few weeks has not yet led commercial traders to significantly reduce their short positions. Overall, there have been hardly any notable shifts since the beginning of the year, which supports our thesis that the COMEX is increasingly losing influence. In a long-term comparison, however, the commercial short position remains at a significantly elevated level. Based on data from the past 22 years, the CoT report should therefore continue to be interpreted negatively. 4. Gold Sentiment Sentiment Optix for gold as of June 23, 2026. Source: Sentimenttrader The sharp correction since late January has completely erased the previously highly euphoric sentiment. Since the low in March, sentiment indicators have been moving in the neutral, largely inconclusive range. In the worst-case scenario, the sentiment pendulum could still swing to the opposite extreme of panic and fear. However, this would require significantly lower prices, which we would currently only expect in the context of a severe stock market crash. In summary, sentiment remains in the neutral range with an Optix value of 58. Ideally, the Optix will soon turn upward again above the 50–55 range. Otherwise, the probability of a more severe correction will increase noticeably. 5. Seasonality of Gold Seasonality of the gold price over the last 17 years as of May 1, 2026. Source: Seasonax Typically, after its spring correction, the gold price finds a bottom in June or July and can then recover through September. Given the recent low of $3,959 and the erratic price movements of the past few weeks, such a turning point could already be taking shape in the coming days or weeks. August, in particular, has historically shown strong performance. Overall, the seasonal traffic light is gradually shifting from red to orange and will then turn green starting in mid-July. 6. Macro Update – The facade is still holding, but the foundation is increasingly eroding Share of the “Magnificent 7” in the S&P 500, as of June 25, 2026. Source: The Diary Of A CEO At first glance, the financial markets continue to appear surprisingly robust, but beneath the surface, warning signs are mounting. While the major U.S. indices are trading near their record highs, market breadth has noticeably deteriorated, and numerous former market leaders—such as Oracle, Salesforce, Netflix, Palantir, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon—have long been in significant correction or bear market phases. For many of these high-flyers of recent years, the technical damage is now considerable. The fact that former growth and AI winners, as well as heavyweights from the megacap segment, have in some cases fallen sharply from their highs shows just how narrow the foundation of the still-ongoing bull market has become. As a result, the technology sector in particular—as the central driver of the boom—has now become highly vulnerable. 6.1 The Limits of the AI Boom Free cash flow forecast for the hyperscalers, as of June 26, 2026. Source: Financelot Even among the AI hyperscalers, the euphoria is beginning to show cracks. Valuations now appear so stretched that the gap between free cash flow and the major indices is unlikely to be sustained indefinitely. At the same time, declines in rental prices for AI GPUs and in data center profit margins are already evident. This reinforces a familiar pattern: either investments decline, revenues catch up significantly, or the market corrects. Based on current evidence, the third scenario appears increasingly plausible. This is because the AI boom thrives not only on technological strength but also on extreme capital investment over a very short period of time. If competitive pressure from China puts additional strain on margins and demand does not grow at the same pace, the hyperscalers will likely have to scale back their spending sooner or later. 6.2 Speculation on Credit Drives the Markets Margin debt as a percentage of GDP at an all-time high, as of June 6, 2026. Source: Hussman Strategic Advisors At the same time, margin debt as a percentage of GDP has reached a new all-time high of over 4%, surpassing even the levels seen in August 2021, March 2000, and July 2007. Historically, such extreme levels have always been followed by sharp pullbacks—not because a chart predicts the future, but because high leverage makes those who have to sell at the wrong moment particularly vulnerable. This is precisely where the real danger lies: as long as prices rise, debt acts as a catalyst. As soon as the market turns, that same leverage becomes a risk factor and amplifies the downward movement. In an environment where market breadth is already crumbling, this can significantly intensify the momentum of a sell-off. 6.3 Space Speculation as a Prime Example Most recently, the hype surrounding SpaceX’s IPO was unprecedented. It is precisely this euphoria and risk appetite in the market—combined with the stock’s extreme valuation—that make it a prime example of a speculative bubble, as the highly ambitious visions of the future, AI fantasies, and space dreams are far ahead of current business realities. An IPO with an implied valuation of around 2 billion USD and a revenue multiple of about 100 appears to be barely supported by fundamentals. As long as the bulk of the narrative rests on Starlink and projections reaching far into the future—such as Mars colonies, asteroid mining, or space-based AI—the risk-reward ratio remains massively skewed and highly unfavorable. 6.4 Late-cycle characteristics are piling up Boom & Bust Cycles, June 26, 2026. Source: Visual Capitalist The narrowing market breadth, combined with a “super-IPO,” is a classic late-cycle characteristic. When only a few mega-caps and rampant speculation on credit are driving the index higher, while a broad segment of the market is already giving way and “smart money” is cashing out via IPOs, the risk of an abrupt revaluation rises significantly! Boom-and-bust cycles are not an exceptional phenomenon, but a recurring feature of developing economies. Markets rarely move in a straight line but instead oscillate between excessive optimism and excessive pessimism. Phases of strong expansion are regularly followed by excesses, rising risks, and finally a correction that resolves imbalances and lays the foundation for the next upswing. 6.5 Semiconductors as a Warning Sign Semiconductor Index, as of June 16, 2026. Source: Creative Planning Given the parabolic rise in semiconductor stocks, history also speaks clearly. To date, there have been only two periods in which the “Semiconductor Index” rose by more than 230% within 14 months: from December 1998 to February 2000 and from April 2025 to the present. The fact that these are precisely the only two such episodes underscores just how extraordinary—and at the same time fragile—such parabolic rises typically are. The warnings from prominent investors are correspondingly stark. Ray Dalio warns of an environment reminiscent of earlier bubble phases, and Jeremy Grantham describes the U.S. stock markets as historically expensive in light of the AI euphoria. 6.6 Fed Under Scrutiny Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains wary of premature expectations of monetary easing. At its most recent meeting, it kept key interest rates unchanged but simultaneously raised its inflation forecasts and made it clear that the fight against inflation is not over. Under Kevin Warsh, the central bank is also placing less emphasis on traditional forward guidance. As a result, markets will have to focus more on the data going forward, which is likely to make monetary policy expectations more volatile and reactions in the financial markets more erratic. On top of that, markets often react nervously in the first few months following a change in leadership at the Fed, as monetary policy, reaction patterns, and communication styles must first settle into a new rhythm. It is striking, however, that markets have recently interpreted the Fed’s stance as more restrictive than its projections suggest. While higher interest rates have been priced in for the short term, the Fed’s projections for the coming years continue to point toward falling key interest rates. 6.7 Oil Remains the Pacesetter Oil short positions at an all-time high, as of June 22, 2026. Source: Zerohedge Of course, the oil price remains a key factor for the next phase of monetary policy. The recent easing of tensions in the Persian Gulf and the resumption of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have put pressure on the crude oil market and dampened inflationary momentum for the time being. Should this trend continue, the recent surge in inflation could potentially prove to be temporary. This would also increase pressure on the central bank to reconsider interest rate cuts later this year. Despite the easing of tensions, however, the geopolitical situation remains extremely fragile. A renewed escalation in the Middle East could drive oil prices significantly higher at any time, thereby abruptly worsening the inflation outlook. Therefore, the current oil oversupply should not be misinterpreted as a sign of a permanently more balanced market. The additional volumes of crude oil that have entered the market in recent weeks, the extremely low inventory levels, the still-restricted transport routes, and the ongoing shortage of refined products point more toward a temporary distortion than toward a sustainable easing of the situation. Added to this are record-high short positions. Consequently, volatility in the oil market will remain high, and another price spike is already on the horizon. 6.8 Shortages of Intermediate Goods Will Feed Through to Consumer Prices At the same time, new bottlenecks are emerging in critical intermediate goods. Sulfur and sulfuric acid, in particular, are becoming a bottleneck for the extraction of numerous industrial metals and, consequently, for the supply of copper, nickel, uranium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. However, this is not only an issue for industry but also for inflation. When intermediate products become scarcer and more expensive, the effects are felt with a delay on investment, production, and ultimately on consumer prices. 6.9 Precious Metals as a Strategic Buffer The bottom line is that signs of a late phase in the cycle are mounting: While the major indices continue to trade near their all-time highs and still appear strong, market breadth, credit excesses, semiconductor euphoria, AI hype, and speculative IPO fantasies are already painting a significantly more fragile picture. Added to this are a cautious central bank, a still-volatile oil market, and rising consumer prices. The environment thus remains vulnerable to abrupt shifts in direction: The facade is still standing, but the foundation is already becoming noticeably more fragile. This is precisely why real assets should continue to play a central role in the portfolio. Although precious metals have been correcting for nearly five months and the weekly chart now shows signs of being oversold, the macroeconomic environment—marked by high debt, inflation, and political uncertainty—continues to support a gradual increase in holdings as a strategic store of value and liquidity buffer. Gold and silver are and will remain important diversifiers and provide the best long-term protection against inflation. 7. Conclusion: Gold – Bottoming Out Ahead of the Summer Rally After more than five months of correction, the gold market is likely gradually ripe for a counter-movement or recovery. The brief dip below the round mark of $4,000 may already have marked the early-summer low. Alternatively, the bears may make one last attempt in the coming weeks to push the gold price below this psychological level. However, given the oversold weekly chart and the now more favorable seasonal trends, the odds point more toward an upside surprise. The upcoming recovery could turn out to be a summer rally, targeting at least the range between $4,400 and $4,500. However, we are not yet convinced of a sustained breakout from the downtrend channel with prices clearly above $4,550; it is quite possible, in fact, that the correction will continue for the time being following a summer rally. This view is also supported by the increasingly fragile environment in the stock markets, which is characterized by dwindling market breadth, high credit leverage, AI hype, and speculative one-off fantasies. Overall, the big picture remains dominated by high uncertainty, as geopolitics, oil prices, inflation, and interest rates can set the markets in motion again at any time, while consumers face increasing price pressure. This is precisely why gold and silver are indispensable strategic building blocks in a world where the facade still stands, but the foundation is increasingly eroding. Florian Grummes Precious Metals and Crypto Expert www.midastouch-consulting.com Free Newsletter Source: www.celticgold.de

SMM July 4 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead rose 0.38%, SHFE zinc rose 0.87%, SHFE tin rose 3.8%. SHFE nickel dipped 0.02%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.07%, and the benchmark casting aluminum futures rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.39%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.4%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.54%. LME aluminum rose 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%. LME zinc rose 2.17%. LME tin rose 4.99%. LME nickel rose 0.4%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.49%, with a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver rose 2.87%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 5.26%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, with a weekly gain of 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.61%, with a weekly positive close and a gain of 8.82%. J.P. Morgan stated that gold prices may be constrained in the short term due to weakening demand and are expected to remain range-bound. The main reasons are reduced purchasing power in key demand areas and gold's renewed sensitivity to real interest rate changes, which may cap further price increases. However, the bank maintains a bullish view for the medium and long term. Gold is expected to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, J.P. Morgan believes gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend, driven by factors including continued central bank purchasing, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will underpin gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 AM on July 4, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic side: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level technological self-reliance, building a strong domestic market, deepening reforms, and expanding opening-up.] On July 1, Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council and Secretary of the Party Leadership Group, presided over a meeting of the State Council Party Leadership Group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping's thoughts on party building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [Central Bank: To Conduct 1,000 Billion Yuan Outright Reverse Repo on July 6 with 3-Month Term] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations through fixed quantity, rate tender, and multiple price bidding, with a term of 3 months (91 days). The maturity date is October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: The overnight US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.91. For the week, the US dollar index fell, dropping 0.44% for the week, the largest weekly decline since mid-April. The reason was a significant cooling in the US June employment data, which led the market to lower short-term Fed rate hike expectations, causing the dollar index to fall this week. Against a weaker dollar, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% on the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% on the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY briefly pulling back to around 161 but remaining at high levels. Japan continued to release signals of foreign exchange intervention, with both finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring the market and maintaining readiness to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's trend has been notably influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations. If further economic data continues to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure, but whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japanese policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) Fed mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he believes Fed Chairman Walsh is on the dovish side within the FOMC. The previous day, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks. A week earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed hope that the Fed would keep an "open attitude" toward inflation and predicted the Fed would ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said: "If the July non-farm payrolls are very strong, close to or above 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be that high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike still stands." Before the start of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets priced in about a 20% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 meeting, down from 33% before the non-farm payrolls report. The market still expects the US Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points this year, but the earliest hike would be in December. On the European Central Bank, Lagarde said: “The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. However, it is notable that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra conference did not rule out the possibility of not implementing this additional hike.” She warned that the normalization of energy supplies could take half a year or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she sees no pressures on consumer prices beyond energy-affected areas. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said: “US non-farm payrolls data is actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real divergence between Europe and the US.” Subran believes that the ECB will not act again after last month's rate hike. “That was an insurance hike, but from the current data, it seems to have passed,” he said, “the traumatic effects of the (Iran) war will take time to manifest, and the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than a few weeks ago.” (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Muller said that the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone. Muller said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials made clear that “we are not entering a new rate-hiking cycle.” Muller said: “For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level.” Muller added: “Falling oil prices will ease services inflation pressure,” and “we are not yet seeing second-round effects.” (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of Switzerland's June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, the Eurozone May PPI m/m, the Eurozone May retail sales m/m, the US June S&P Global Services PMI final, the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany's May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, the UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France's May trade balance, the US ADP employment change for the week ending June 20, the US May trade balance, China's June foreign exchange reserves, Japan's May trade balance, the New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision due July 8, the US May wholesale sales m/m, China's June CPI y/y, China's June PPI y/y, Germany's May seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, the US June existing home sales annualized, Germany's June CPI m/m final, France's June CPI m/m final, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment change, China's June M2 money supply y/y, among other data releases. In addition, next week attention should also be paid to: 900 billion yuan in outright reverse repos maturing today; speeches by US Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Riksbank Deputy Governor Seim; Turkey hosting the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremann's monetary policy press conference; the US Fed's release of its monetary policy meeting minutes; the ECB's release of its June monetary policy meeting minutes; remarks by FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams; and remarks by 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures edged up, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On a weekly basis: WTI futures posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also fell for a fourth straight week, down 0.91%. The crude oil market was relatively stable, with Brent crude consolidating near $72 per barrel as the market weighed the supply outlook in the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street CN) Data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show that in the week ended June 30, speculators in Brent crude futures cut their net long positions by 34,704 lots to 55,634 lots. Speculators in diesel futures reduced their net long positions by 2,664 lots to 57,852 lots. (Jin10 Data) Data showed that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (b/d) from May, surpassing 10 million b/d, but remained 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in the oil market, allowing millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf to reach international markets, thereby enabling producers to raise output and bring prices down to pre-war levels. According to Kpler, combined exports of crude and condensate from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran jumped by more than 3.5 million b/d from May to 10.07 million b/d. Another freight analytics firm, Vortexa, estimated that oil shipments in June were 10.2 million b/d, up from 7 million b/d in May but still well below 16.5 million b/d a year earlier. Based on data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, UAE crude exports hit a record 3.7 to 3.8 million b/d in June, more than 1 million b/d above May's levels. (Jin10 Data) In addition, three sources said that Venezuela's largest refinery, the 645,000 b/d Amuay refinery, resumed operations on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing about 140,000 b/d of crude oil, with the fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCC) also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 13.3 yuan/nickel unit to 1,133.7 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average price of the Indonesian NPI FOB index fell WoW by $0.31/nickel unit to $146.69/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market remained in the doldrums under a supply-demand tug-of-war and persistently sluggish trading, with prices under pressure overall.

This week, finished steel continued its gradual decline, while raw materials began to stabilize, with coking coal rebounding to some extent. During the week, rumors about a coal mine accident in Shanxi and customs clearance restrictions at the Mongolian border spread, boosting sentiment. Coupled with the China Mineral Resources talks, the raw materials side rebounded from lows. In the second half of the week, as rumors of maintenance at steel mills across various regions emerged, negative feedback expectations intensified somewhat, and raw materials pulled back. Approaching the weekend, however, the 10th round of coke price increases was initiated, pushing coking coal and coke futures higher. In the spot market, the off-season characteristics of end-users became increasingly evident, with the market restocking at low prices as needed. With spot prices remaining relatively firm, the spot-futures price spread continued to widen...

Next week, the main macroeconomic data to be released include China's June CPI annual rate and the US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI. This week, US non-farm payrolls data came in far below the previous value and expectations, cooling market expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike. The US dollar index may return to a weak range of fluctuation. Although the prospects for US-Iran peace talks remain unclear, the gradual recovery of shipping and maritime transport and the decline in crude oil prices indicate that supply chain markets are recovering. In addition, it should be noted that the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting next week. For LME lead, high lead ingot inventory outside China is the biggest bearish factor in current market trading, especially as LME lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M contango did not narrow but widened, with the latest quote at -$37.79/mt. Fundamental news was mediocre, providing limited support for prices. In the near term, we need to pay more attention to the US dollar index trend and the new developments from next week’s US Fed meeting, and their impact on the metals market. LME lead is expected to trade in the range of $1,865-1,915/mt next week. For SHFE lead, this week, amid a carnival for bears, SHFE lead fell to a more than two-year low, causing lead smelters’ losses to widen and forcing secondary lead enterprises to cut or suspend production again. Bears then began to exit, and lead prices stopped falling and rebounded. Going forward, we need to monitor downstream enterprises’ purchasing trends. If lead ingot destocking materializes, lead prices may continue to rebound; otherwise, we should remain vigilant about bearish funds that have not exited. Next week, the most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade in the range of 15,800-16,100 yuan/mt. Spot Price Forecast: 15,750-16,000 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the off-season trend in July remains unchanged. However, after large enterprises complete their semi-annual inventory checks and account closing, they will resume regular purchasing, which may bring some purchasing expectations. Supply side, primary lead enterprises are about to resume production after maintenance, turning supply expectations upward. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are in a state of production cuts, leading to regional supply constraints. If lead prices continue to rebound next week, we need to watch for the possibility of secondary lead production resuming as losses are repaired. Spot lead is expected to remain in contango trading.

Nickel prices consolidated at lows and hit bottom this week. Early in the week, expectations for further US Fed interest rate hikes and a stronger US dollar weighed on the most-traded SHFE nickel contract, keeping it under pressure around 124,000 yuan/mt. Mid-week, US June non-farm payrolls data significantly missed expectations, triggering a sharp reversal in macro sentiment. Rate hike expectations cooled abruptly, the US dollar index pulled back quickly, and nickel prices rebounded slightly, leaving the weekly decline at 1.2%. The LME nickel 3M contract also traded under pressure this week, breaching the $17,000 level and falling nearly 2% WoW. In the spot market, SMM #1 refined nickel averaged 127,080 yuan/mt this week, down 4,500 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums trended higher this week, climbing to around 2,200 yuan/mt, while mainstream electrodeposited nickel discounts held steady in the 400-400 yuan/mt range. On spot transactions, the sustained drop in nickel prices encouraged bargain-hunting by end-users, but after some downstream players had already stockpiled during the earlier price decline, overall weekly trading activity was moderate. On the macro front, US Labor Department data on July 3 showed that non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, roughly half the 113,000 expected and well below the downwardly revised 129,000 for May. The sharper-than-expected cooling in non-farm payrolls data prompted a more cautious assessment of the employment outlook and led investors to re-evaluate the Fed’s monetary policy path. Rate hike expectations cooled markedly, the US dollar index fell to a two-week low, and the US Treasury yield curve steepened steadily. Inventory side, bonded zone inventory in Shanghai stood at around 2,700 mt, flat WoW. China’s social inventory stood at approximately 130,000 mt, a WoW buildup of about 1,100 mt. Nickel prices are currently caught between macro disruptions and weak industry fundamentals. In the short term, recovering macro sentiment supports a rebound, but the upside is still capped by high inventory pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt next week.

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI dropped by 13.3 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,133.7 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average FOB Indonesia NPI index price slipped by $0.31/nickel unit WoW to $146.69/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market maintained a stalemate in the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, with sluggish trading throughout, and the overall market remained in the doldrums, with prices under pressure.

[China's ore shortage situation unchanged, July zinc concentrate TCs continue to decline]: From weekly data, the SMM Zn50 domestic weekly average TC fell 400 yuan/mt Zn WoW to -600 yuan/mt Zn, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index fell $5.33/dmt WoW to -$82.83/dmt....

SMM, July 3: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract traded at a higher center than the same period of the previous trading day. Buying sentiment picked up somewhat, boosted by Friday stockpiling, but remained at a weak level. Market liquidity was relatively ample, with mainstream transactions at parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. In east China today, the shipment sentiment index stood at 2.91, flat MoM, while the procurement sentiment index came in at 2.79, up 0.06 MoM. Following the sharp drop on the futures market, aluminum prices rebounded for two consecutive days, yet bearish sentiment in the central China market remained strong. With the weekend stockpiling cycle approaching, downstream processing enterprises still mainly made just-in-time procurement, with only small-scale raw material stockpiling, leaving the overall market trading atmosphere largely sluggish. Suppliers also showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were centered around a discount of 50-70 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. In the central China market today, the shipment sentiment index was 2.89, up 0.01 MoM, while the procurement sentiment index stood at 2.12, up 0.01 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas fell by 1.95 MoM today, with all three regions showing destocking.

On July 3, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) came in at -$128.25/dmt, down $3.80/dmt from -$124.45/dmt in the previous period. The SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) for June was -$121.44/dmt, a decrease of $18.31/dmt from -$103.13/dmt in May. The payable indicator for 20% grade domestic copper ore was 97.5%-98.5%. This week, copper concentrate spot market trading activity improved from last week, with results from several mine tenders being released. In terms of spot transactions, a trader sold 20,000 mt of HVC and 10,000 mt of blended ore as a package to a smelter at an average of SMM and Fastmarket indices minus $15/mt, for shipment from August to September, QP: M+5. Another trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore to a smelter at an average of SMM and Fastmarket indices minus $15/mt, for shipment in August, QP: M+5. Market rumors suggested that a trader sold 30,000-50,000 mt of imported copper concentrates to a smelter at a fixed number of -$127/dmt. On the mine tender front, results from a leading mine tender were released, with a transaction at -$196/dmt on the trader side. According to SMM, a smelter participated in this tender and was awarded, but the exact transaction price is currently unknown. The results of last week's Gibraltar tender were released, with market rumors of a transaction at -$180/dmt on the trader side, for shipment in H1 2027, with a volume of 30,000-60,000 mt. Additionally, a tender for a complex Peruvian blended ore was conducted, with a transaction price on the trader side of -$150/dmt, for 10,000 mt per year from 2026 to 2028, ore type Cobriza, QP: M+3. Overall, the downward trend in the copper concentrate spot market persisted, with mine tender and trader offer prices remaining deeply negative. However, as spot TC continued to breach historical extremes, Chinese smelters' resistance to current prices strengthened. Currently, smelters' psychological price level is largely around -$120/dmt, making it difficult for low-priced offers to be accepted in the spot market. The spot TC for imported copper concentrates has limited further downside room. On July 1, Chilean miner AMSA and some core Chinese copper smelters finalized the pricing scheme for the mid-year annual copper concentrate TC contract, abandoning the traditional fixed TC model for the first time in favor of a guaranteed floor index-linked pricing mechanism. It is reported that the persistently historically low spot TCs in the copper concentrate spot market created multiple disagreements during these mid-year term contract negotiations. Chinese smelters have historically used fixed TC pricing for mid-year term contracts, but AMSA insisted on switching to index-based pricing this time. Ultimately, the two parties reached an innovative compromise solution. On June 26, Anhui Youjin Guanhua New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s 100,000 mt copper cathode smart electrolysis project officially commenced production and produced copper. According to SMM, the project is located in Guichi District, Chizhou City, Anhui province, with a total investment of about 835 million yuan. Currently, the company's monthly copper cathode production is about 10,000 mt. After the project is put into operation, it will bring a certain increment to regional copper cathode supply. SMM's copper concentrates inventory at eleven ports stood at 657,000 mt in physical content on July 3, up 40,800 mt in physical content from June 26. The main increases came from Fangchenggang Port and Qingdao Port, up 50,000 mt and 30,000 mt WoW respectively.