SMM August 20 News: Price Review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,681.62 yuan/mt, down 0.46 yuan/mt from last Thursday. In Shandong, the price was reported at 2,650-2,720 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Henan, 2,690-2,750 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Shanxi, 2,680-2,740 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Guangxi, 2,580-2,640 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt WoW; and in Guizhou, 2,720-2,790 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW. Markets Outside China: As of August 13, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $360/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $32/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 6.74. This price was equivalent to approximately 3,066.17 yuan/mt at mainstream Chinese ports, which was 384.55 yuan/mt higher than the alumina index price. Seven spot alumina transactions were concluded outside China this week, with details as follows: (1) On August 20, 2026, an alumina transaction was concluded outside China at $363/mt FOB East Australia for 30,000 mt, or $364/mt FOB East Australia for 50,000 mt, seller's option, with October shipment. (2) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment. (3) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $362.5/mt FOB West Australia, with September shipment. (4) On August 14, 2026, 63,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $409/mt CIF Rotterdam. (5) On August 14, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $400/mt FOB Jamaica, with September shipment. (6) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $360/mt FOB West Australia or $358/mt FOB East Australia, with October shipment. (7) On August 13, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded outside China at $374/mt CFR Malaysia, with August shipment. Chinese Market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China's total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina was 118.42 million mt/year, with total operating capacity at 88.01 million mt/year. The national alumina weekly operating rate remained flat WoW at 74.33%. Specifically, the weekly operating rate for alumina in Shandong remained flat WoW at 89.14%; in Shanxi, flat at 64.9%; in Henan, flat at 56.53%; in Guangxi, flat at 78.05%; and in Guizhou, flat at 83.05%. Spot market side, two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 5,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,960 yuan/mt each. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at delivered prices of 2,985 yuan/mt each. Spot alumina prices fell steadily this week, with the oversupply situation continuing to weigh on China prices. Markets outside China showed a different trend, with alumina prices rising steadily, mainly due to two reasons: first, transportation issues in the Middle East increased demand for bagged alumina, leading to a premium and sustained rise in prices outside China; second, bauxite supply in Indonesia was generally tight, limiting local alumina production and pushing spot prices outside China higher. Domestically, operating capacity for alumina remained stable this week, with weekly production at 1.688 million mt. Inventory performance showed divergence: raw material inventories at aluminum smelters decreased by 9,000 mt to 3.399 million mt, with current consumption primarily from in-factory inventory and long-term contract procurement pace maintained, overall changes relatively small; finished product inventories at alumina refineries decreased by 3,000 mt to 1.217 million mt, with enterprises maintaining normal long-term contract shipments and limited fluctuations; port inventories decreased by 35,000 mt to 1.016 million mt, mainly due to a decline in pickup volume; warrant inventories increased by 15,000 mt to 288,000 mt, and in-transit inventories edged up by 2,000 mt to 1.325 million mt. Overall, total alumina inventories in China decreased by 30,000 mt to 7.245 million mt. Looking ahead to next week, an alumina enterprise in Guangxi will resume production after maintenance ends, with capacity expected to recover, and overall supply is expected to increase, keeping the market under pressure. On imports and exports, July net imports were 63,000 mt, and net imports are expected to decrease going forward, with port inventories likely to decline during the period. Overall, inventory levels are expected to fluctuate within the current range, and spot prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. [Data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

[Supply Side Production Cut Expectations and Disruption Intensify, Silicon Metal Prices Continue Strong]: On the market quotation and transaction side, affected by expectations for month-end production cuts at large plants in Xinjiang, silicon enterprises generally have a strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Their quotes increased WoW, and futures-spot traders also raised their quotes following the rise in futures prices, leaving almost no low-priced supply in the market. The center of suppliers' quotations generally increased, while China's downstream users and users outside China show little willingness to chase price rises. Some downstream users have poor acceptance of high prices and mainly place orders on demand for restocking.

SMM August 20 News: Domestic Bauxite: Domestic Ore Supply Disruptions Continue, Mainstream Prices Remain Stable Affected by the Shanxi coking coal incident, mining at major domestic bauxite production areas such as Shanxi and Henan has experienced some disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remain at a relatively high level, and alumina refineries have moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mostly passively accepting current ore prices for now. As of today, transaction prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi are around 530-550 yuan/mt EXW at crushing plants excluding VAT; in Henan, prices for similar specifications are around 500-540 yuan/mt EXW; in Guiyang, prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content are 490-540 yuan/mt EXW price including VAT; in Guangxi, prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content are 320-335 yuan/mt EXW at crushing plants excluding VAT. Imported Bauxite: Bauxite Price Hikes Fell Short of Early-Month Expectations, Upstream Import Ore Quotes Slightly Down Data as of August 14 showed that total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 4.6891 million mt, up 12,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically stable. Due to renewed tensions in the US-Iran situation, oil prices rebounded again, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China followed with an upward trend. Market quotes rose to around 37-38 $/dmt, and mine costs continued to increase to varying degrees. Combined with policy uncertainties in Guinea and weather-related transport disruptions, Guinean mines tightened control over bauxite shipments. For Australia, as of August 14, weekly port departures from major Australian ports totaled 1.1008 million mt, up 174,000 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically flat. Going forward, attention should be paid to the pace of shipments from Australian mines and changes in port shipments. As of August 14, China's bauxite port arrivals totaled 4.8239 million mt, down 402,800 mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of oil price and ocean freight rate fluctuations on future arrival pace and landed costs. Price-wise, Guinea's August long-term contract quotes for bauxite were in the range of 73-74 $/mt, but downstream price acceptance was relatively limited. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at China's alumina refineries remain at a high level. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories around 96 days, putting some upward pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounded, mine costs increased, and the traditional rainy season along with adverse weather caused shipment reductions. As a result, upstream and trader quotations did not meet early-month expectations, slightly declining to a high price range of $72-73/mt. Under the dual impact of persistently high inventory and shrinking profits, China's alumina refineries maintained their intended transaction prices in the $70-71/mt range. The divergence between upstream and downstream in the bauxite market remained significant, with transaction activity slowing down, and the stalemate continuing since last week. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quotation for Guinean bauxite was $36-44/mt, flat WoW; the CIF price was $70-73/mt, down $0.5/mt WoW; and the SMM imported bauxite index price stood at $71.99/mt, up $0.27/mt WoW. Moving forward, bauxite prices will still depend on mine costs, the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season and the government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor the bauxite market trends and transaction conditions. Overall, domestic ore prices remained at current levels. Meanwhile, China's alumina refineries' inventories remained high (about 96 days), and the price negotiation between buyers and sellers persisted. The uncertainty of Guinea's quota policy, shipment decreases, and the traditional rainy season also brought certain upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to the dual impact of costs and policies leading to reduced shipments, imported ore prices are expected to remain in a high-level stalemate. Subsequently, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

[SMM Silver Weekly Review: Silver Prices Saw a V-Shaped Reversal This Week, with Spot Discounts Continuing to Widen] Silver prices fell first and then rose this week. Mid-week, they plunged sharply, dragged down by a global bond sell-off and a surge in US Treasury yield; subsequently, the Treasury’s expanded buybacks triggered a sharp drop in the US dollar, and silver prices rebounded strongly to regain lost ground. Spot market discounts continued to widen, with insufficient downstream buying interest, forming a divergent pattern of “rising prices, widening discounts.” Inventory buildup totaled 53 mt, while ETF holdings edged down. In the short term, prices were expected to see wild swings; watch the US Treasury yield trend.

This week, macro signals were mixed. Early on, surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations weighed on precious metals. Mid-week, the Treasury expanded buybacks, pulling long-end yields lower and sparking a rebound. Yields remain high and the Fed’s hawkish tilt keeps downside risks alive, but debt concerns and central bank buying offer solid medium-term support. Focus shifts to Jackson Hole and US-Iran developments.

SMM August 20 Today at 11:30, the futures closing price was 107,370 yuan/mt, up 470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 350 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, copper scrap prices increased by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap fell to 2.69, and the purchasing sentiment index fell to 1.88. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 4,387 yuan/mt, up 199 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,290 yuan/mt. According to an SMM survey, copper prices stopped falling and stabilized. Secondary copper rod enterprises reported an increase in upstream supply, and they were all worried about the risk of further price declines. Meanwhile, secondary copper rod enterprises indicated that as the traditional peak season arrived, coinciding with the increase in supply, most reasonably priced materials were fully traded, and copper scrap trading was relatively active during the day.

This week, platinum and palladium experienced wild swings with rapid switches between long and short positions. U.S. Treasury yields became the core marginal variable, and the U.S. Treasury's expansion of long-term bond buyback scale provided strong support for the valuation repair of precious metals. Spot market premiums fluctuated slightly with futures, and overall consumption remained sluggish. End-users mainly focused on restocking as needed, with insufficient willingness for active stockpiling.

August 20, SMM News: Base metals: At midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper rose 0.36%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.57%. SHFE lead rose 0.28%. SHFE zinc edged down. SHFE tin rose 1.68%. SHFE nickel rose 1.19%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures edged up, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.3%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 0.98%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.57%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 2.17%, rebar fell 0.46%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.27%. Stainless steel rose 0.63%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.25%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.12%. On the overseas market base metals side, as of 11:40, LME metals generally rose. LME copper, LME lead, and LME zinc each gained less than 0.3%. LME aluminum fell 0.79%. LME tin rose 0.73%. LME nickel fell 0.64%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.11%, COMEX silver rose 2.11%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 2.47%, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 4.93%. Additionally, at midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 4.52%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 2.44%. At midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures fell 1.46% to 1,716.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 20, noon quotes for some futures: Spot market & fundamentals Aluminum: Today the futures market continued its decline, but the south China spot market was steady with improvement. The cumulative decline in absolute prices had been substantial, clearly breaking below the monthly moving average. Coupled with stable inventory draws and a significant single-day decline, these dual positives prompted holders to generally hold back from selling more firmly... Macro front China: [Unchanged for the 15th consecutive month! August LPR quotes released: 5-year above 3.5%, 1-year 3%] China's August loan prime rate (LPR) was released on August 20, with both 1-year and 5-year above LPR unchanged. The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that the loan prime rate (LPR) on August 20, 2026 is: 1-year LPR at 3.0%, 5-year above LPR at 3.5%. The above LPR is valid until the next LPR release. The 7-day reverse repo rate, as the main policy rate, has remained unchanged for 15 consecutive months since its cut in May 2025. Therefore, the pricing basis for LPR quotes has not changed this month. The LPR was last adjusted in May 2025, with both the 1-year and over-5-year LPR cut by 10 basis points. [Shanghai issues "Housing Eight Measures" for property market: Down payment for second homes outside the outer ring road reduced from 20% to 15%, and interim home purchase subsidy policy introduced] To better meet residents' rigid and improved housing needs and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, on August 20, six departments including the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Management, the Shanghai Municipal Housing Authority, the Shanghai Municipal Finance Bureau, the Shanghai Branch of the People's Bank of China, the Shanghai Financial Regulatory Bureau, and the Shanghai Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the 《Notice on Optimizing Local Real Estate Policy Measures》 (hereinafter referred to as the 《Notice》), effective from August 21, 2026. The 《Notice》 mainly includes 8 policy measures in 5 aspects: optimizing housing provident fund withdrawal, optimizing personal housing credit, implementing trade-in home purchase subsidies, promoting housing voucher placement, and advancing the acquisition of second-hand housing. [Beijing Yizhuang: Will accelerate the mass production of 100,000-unit level embodied AI robots] According to the "Beijing Yizhuang" official account, on August 19, the 2026 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing Yizhuang. At the "Open Cooperation" main forum, Li Quan, member of the Party Working Committee and Deputy Director of the Management Committee of the Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area, released the "Beijing Machine Domain"—a vision of building a new society of human-machine integrated embodied AI. Beijing Yizhuang will accelerate the development of 100 feature robot products that can be practically deployed, promote their application in 1,000 niche areas; accelerate the mass production of 100,000-unit level embodied AI robots, and form a production capacity of 1 million sets of key core parts. (from Wall Street News APP) The PBOC conducted zero 7-day reverse repo operations for 8 consecutive working days. Today, 327.4 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar side: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.83. US Fed meeting minutes showed that several officials last month leaned toward raising rates, while many said that if inflation failed to decline, further tightening of monetary policy would be necessary. However, at the July meeting, uncertainty continued to heavily influence Fed officials' judgment. The minutes showed: "Regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants reiterated that their interpretation of future data would be a key component of policy discussions." The FOMC voted 9 to 3 in July to keep the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari voted against, advocating for a 25-basis-point rate hike. Two other regional Fed presidents who did not have voting rights in July—Schmid and Musalem—also later stated that if they had had voting rights at that time, they would have supported a rate hike at that meeting. Most of the policy discussions at the July meeting revolved around differing judgments on future inflation trends. The meeting minutes stated: "Most participants expected that inflation would gradually pull back over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price increases faded, but many participants noted that the possibility of inflation remaining elevated persisted." According to the CME FedWatch: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 32.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged by October is 58.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 37.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 4.3%. Four US Senate Democrats led by Chris Van Hollen have demanded that Fed Chairman Warsh publicly disclose the content of his conversations with Trump, after The Wall Street Journal reported that the two had spoken multiple times, even though Warsh's schedule did not show such calls. The senators said that without disclosing contact information, it could lead the public to mistakenly believe that the White House is steering monetary policy. Last month, under questioning by Van Hollen, Warsh did not directly respond to the matter. The senators demanded that Warsh confirm in writing whether he has had any contact with Trump since taking office, or amend his schedule to disclose relevant calls. In early August, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett downplayed these calls, saying that Trump did not pressure Warsh on rate decisions; and Trump himself said that he had only had one brief conversation with Warsh. In contrast, former Fed Chairman Powell had detailed records of his calls with Trump and disclosed several face-to-face meetings. The US Treasury issued a statement saying it will at least double the size of liquidity support repo operations targeting long-term nominal coupon securities, covering two maturity buckets: 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year tenors. The current maximum size per operation is $2 billion, and future operations will be at least $4 billion each. The adjustment will take effect on September 9, 2026, and will be implemented for the remainder of the current refunding quarter (through November 4, 2026). The Treasury will provide more information on future repo sizes at the next quarterly refunding meeting, scheduled for November 4, 2026. The expansion of the repurchase operation scale reflects the Ministry of Finance's intention to provide stronger liquidity support for the long-term nominal government bond market. The Ministry of Finance will announce the updated temporary government bond repurchase arrangements later. US Treasury Secretary Bessent this year has become one of the most interventionist Treasury secretaries in decades through a series of unconventional operations, aiming to curb the rise in US borrowing costs. This week, the US Treasury announced it would "at least double" its originally planned repurchase of 10-year to 30-year bonds. Previously, the Treasury had signaled a possible reduction in long-term debt issuance. On July 31, Bessent led the US government's first yen purchase in 30 years. Former Treasury official Mark Sobel commented that Bessent is "absolutely an aggressive interventionist," with a style reminiscent of his hedge fund background. He believes that Bessent and senior government officials are clearly concerned about rising long-term US Treasury yields. Affected by inflation, Fed monetary policy, and fiscal deficits, the 10-year US Treasury yield has been rising, pushing up mortgage rates and dragging down economic growth. Some analysts point out that Bessent is trying to stabilize the market through yield curve intervention, but also warn that without addressing high debt and fiscal deficits, this strategy is difficult to sustain in the long term. (Jin Shi Data APP) Data: Today, the following data will be released: Australia July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany July PPI month-on-month, Switzerland July trade balance, UK August CBI industrial order expectations, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, US August Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July Conference Board leading index month-on-month, China July year-to-date installed power generation capacity, China July year-to-date installed power generation capacity year-on-year rate, among others. In addition, attention should be paid to: the Ministry of Commerce's August first regular press conference; interview of 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem by CNBC; Alibaba's earnings release. Crude oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks moved sideways, with WTI up 0.05% and Brent up 0.23%. With US-Iran negotiations in a stalemate, oil prices moved sideways. According to CCTV News: On August 19 local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform "Truth Social" that Iran failed to seize the opportunity to reach an agreement, so he announced the "harshest economic action ever taken against any country" against Iran, calling it an unprecedented "economic war and economic isolation." Trump said the US is building a record number of oil pipelines to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. He said that with the emergence of more alternative supply routes and the US strengthening its control over the strait, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz will decline. Trump also said that although some had predicted that oil prices could skyrocket to $350, current oil prices remain around $84 to $85 per barrel. Two US officials told Axios that the US military has quietly established a shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz, carrying millions of barrels of oil daily. Although the broader war remains deadlocked, the operation has achieved significant results. The operation has been ongoing for weeks, and 15 to 20 tankers have already passed through the southern channel off the coast of Oman to enter or exit the Strait. Officials said that about 10 million barrels of oil are shipped through the strait daily and enter the global energy market, but this figure is about half of the pre-war volume. This US-led operation is alleviating one of the most severe impacts of the war: the disruption of oil supply, which has driven a sharp rise in crude oil prices. Officials stated that although the current volume of oil shipped through the strait is still below pre-war levels, it has already had a notable impact on global oil supply. (Jinshi Data) In addition, Venezuelan oil minister Paula Enao told investors in Houston that Venezuela hopes to sign production-sharing contracts and increase oil production in this country with the world's largest crude oil reserves. Enao said that Venezuela currently has 916 blocks available for exploration and production. She said Venezuela is known for heavy crude, but there are also investment opportunities in light and medium crude and natural gas. She said: "We need to reach these agreements to enter these new blocks." "There is a whole world waiting for you to explore." This week, Venezuela has signed agreements with oilfield services giant Schlumberger (SLB.N) and independent oil producer Hnt Oil, but the country hopes to attract more private investment to revive oil production. Over the past 20 years, Venezuela's oil production has been steadily declining. Enao said about 140 companies attended the meeting, and the scale of on-site investors showed the market's interest in investing in Venezuela. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM August 20: Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices were similar to the same period yesterday. Wuxi saw destocking today, consumption sentiment improved significantly from yesterday, and spot discounts narrowed. Today's transactions were around a discount of 20 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.2, down 0.01 MoM; the purchase sentiment index was 3.16, up 0.04 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices adjusted slightly, and the trading atmosphere in central China remained sluggish. Futures prices stabilized and stopped falling sharply, but downstream processing enterprises' wait-and-see sentiment for purchases did not diminish. Only a few top-tier players maintained small restocking, and suppliers showed a clear intention to hold prices firm, so the downward trend in market quotes was not strong. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in central China centered around a discount of 70-90 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 3.1, down 0.01 MoM; the purchase sentiment index was 2.9, unchanged MoM. On the inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consuming regions fell by 10,500 mt MoM today, and all three regions experienced destocking.

As of Thursday this week, the average price of SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate declined. Demand side, the overall market was mediocre in the middle of the month. Some downstream enterprises mainly picked up goods under long-term contracts, or still had certain raw material inventory, and had weak sentiment for spot order stockpiling, with low acceptance of nickel sulphate prices. Supply side, some upstream enterprises had high inventory levels and planned to reduce operating rates, seeking shipments and destocking. Looking ahead, the market is expected to continue destocking this month, and prices are expected to remain under pressure by month-end. Inventory side, the inventory index of upstream nickel salt smelters remained at 8.1 days this week, while the inventory index of downstream precursor enterprises decreased from 10.7 days to 10 days, and the inventory index of integrated enterprises decreased from 9.9 days to 9.7 days. Buying and selling strength side, the Willingness to Sell Sentiment Factor of upstream nickel salt smelters remained at 2 this week, the Willingness to Purchase Sentiment Factor of downstream precursor enterprises remained at 2.3, and the sentiment factor of integrated enterprises remained at 2.3. (Historical data can be queried by logging into the database.)