[7.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June PPI declined 0.3% MoM, the first drop since last year, while market expectations were for a flat reading; June PPI rose 5.5% YoY, significantly narrowing from the 6.5% in May; June core PPI YoY growth slowed to 4.7%, with only a 0.2% MoM increase, both below market expectations. On July 16, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract surged in early trading, breaking through 130,000 yuan/mt and briefly hitting 133,000 yuan/mt, with a morning gain of 2.9%; LME nickel simultaneously held above $17,000/mt, rising about 2.5% in early trading. Recently, macro, policy, and cost-side positives re-emerged. Combined with a MACD golden cross, nickel prices holding above the 10-day moving average, and bearish funds taking profits, nickel prices have rebound momentum. However, weak demand and high inventory continue to cap upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade within a 127,000–137,000 yuan/mt range. Going forward, attention will focus on the results of Indonesia's July RKAB quota approval and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidated and rebounded during the night session, with downstream enterprises showing a "price fall wait-and-see + sporadic orders" state.]

Rebar futures consolidated today, with the most-traded contract closing at 3,115, up 0.26% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, most offers held steady, but in the afternoon, quotes in some regions edged down by 10 yuan/mt, and trading performance was mediocre.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Drives SS Futures Higher; Spot Stainless Steel Follows Gains, Downstream Purchases Remain Cautious According to SMM on July 16, SS futures showed an overall rising and probing pattern. Driven by SHFE nickel strength, SS simultaneously climbed and probed higher. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,795 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures were relatively stable in the morning and spot offers held steady accordingly, they surged rapidly in the afternoon following SHFE nickel's sharp rise, and spot offers rose in tandem. Despite rapid price fluctuations, downstream end-users remained cautious in purchasing, but low-priced cargoes in the market were basically gone. SS most-traded contract: At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was at 14,665 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 255-605 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi was unchanged and Foshan's average price held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi were flat; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil quotes in Wuxi were unchanged; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were flat. This week, macro fund disturbances intensified, and stainless steel futures followed an independent weak trajectory, with the futures movement clearly diverging from SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, fund sentiment switched repeatedly, driving wild swings in SS futures. The key support level of 14,500 yuan/mt was breached earlier, and the overall trend center continued to shift lower, with overall market trading sentiment leaning bearish. Spot and...

Rebar futures drifted higher today. The most-traded contract closed at 3,115, up 1.33% from the previous trading day. Spot side, market quotations largely followed the gains in futures, with an increase of 10-30 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, prices in some markets pulled back, and transactions of high-priced resources were weak.

SMM July 15 news: Today, the most-traded SHFE lead 2608 contract opened at 15,870 yuan/mt. Dragged down by the decline in LME lead, the SHFE lead continued its overnight fall after the opening, and the decline widened, hitting an intraday low of 15,565 yuan/mt, a new low since December 13, 2023. Meanwhile, losses in China's secondary lead sector expanded, with only 20-30% of secondary lead enterprises remaining in production. Additionally, downstream enterprises showed dip-buying interest, providing some support to lead prices. In the afternoon, the decline in SHFE lead slowed, and it eventually closed at 15,575 yuan/mt, down 1.86%. Open interest for SHFE lead on the day stood at 59,064 lots, a decrease of 5,089 lots from the previous trading day. Furthermore, the SHFE lead 2607 contract entered delivery today, with open interest of 3,060 lots, equivalent to 15,300 mt of lead ingot delivery. Compared with the current lead ingot social inventory of over 70,000 mt, this round of delivery will be completed smoothly. Also notably, LME lead inventory saw another single-day surge of 80,000 mt today, as invisible inventory in the trading system turned into visible inventory, putting significant psychological pressure on traders. Lead prices are expected to continue to consolidate on a weak note. Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute any decision-making advice.

China Steel Export: [Flat products] Raw-material news lifts HRC export deals up 1 USD On July 14 China's HRC and other flat-product export prices rose 1 USD/tonne day on day, with HRC export deals at 486-492 USD/tonne FOB. Futures climbed quickly in the afternoon on raw-material headlines, but market feedback showed no clear pickup in actual enquiries or deals, with overseas markets still needing time to react. Some northern mills said heavy rainstorms kept them from issuing offers today, which may affect subsequent shipments. [Billet] Billet export FOB steady, Jiangyin at 456-459 USD On July 14 China's billet export FOB prices were largely steady, with Jiangyin port quoted at 456-459 USD/tonne. Market feedback indicated shipment slots generally booked into September, with a few orders pushed to October. China's price advantage versus Southeast Asia, India and Iran has narrowed, making high-priced Chinese export cargoes hard to sell, while mills showed limited appetite to take new orders, saying prices were unattractive. [Rebar] Rebar export offers steady, afternoon enquiries improve On July 14 China's rebar export offers held steady, with workable FOB prices at 480-485 USD/tonne. Market participants said futures rose in the afternoon, enquiries improved somewhat, and some traders concluded small volumes.

Futures drifted lower today, with the most-traded contract settling at 3,054, down 1.05% from the previous trading day. In spot markets, most regional prices edged down by 10-30 yuan/mt, and overall shipments remained sluggish.

[Sheets & Plates] Today, export prices for HRC and other sheets & plates edged up $1/mt from the previous day, with HRC transaction prices at $486-492/mt. Raw material news disruptions pushed the futures market sharply higher in the afternoon. Market feedback indicated no significant release in actual inquiries or transactions yet, and markets outside China still need time to react. Some northern producers reported that no quotations were made today due to heavy rain, and subsequent shipments may be affected to some extent.

[ADC12 Price Daily Commentary: Cast Aluminum Futures Drift Lower, Spot Demand Under Pressure in Off-Season] Today, ADC12 market quotations overall consolidated on a subdued note, with the SMM ADC12 price dropping 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The pullback in aluminum prices and the weakening of cast aluminum alloy futures weighed on market sentiment, with enterprises' offer centers shifting lower in tandem with the cost side.