The European Commission has launched a consultation on expanding the scope of its 2026 Steel Regulation, which cuts duty-free steel import quotas to 18.3 million mt/year, nearly 47% below 2024 levels, and raises the out-of-quota tariff to 50%. The regulation also introduces “melt and pour” traceability, requiring importers to identify where steel was originally melted and cast. The consultation considers adding four product groups, including stainless steel wire, steel wire, cast iron pipes and forged steel bars, and will remain open until September 30, 2026. The new rules could pose challenges for Vietnamese exporters using imported billets or hot-rolled steel, as products may be counted under the raw material’s country of origin rather than Vietnam. Vietnam’s steel exports to the EU already fell 18.3% in volume and 23.3% in value year on year in the first five months of 2026. Exporters, particularly those in stainless steel wire and steel pipes, are advised to closely monitor the consultation and engage with EU importers and industry associations.

[EU] European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices edged slightly higher today, primarily driven by strong willingness among steelmakers to hold firm on prices, although some room for negotiation remains between buyers and sellers. Currently, most producers have completed their Q3 production scheduling, and their strong pricing stance has established a firm bottom support at 830 USD/tonne EXW. On the supply and demand front, despite sluggish end-user demand, EU blast furnace capacity utilization saw a slight month-on-month increase. The Southern European market has fully entered summer holiday mode, with some fully-booked mills taking the opportunity to withdraw their offers. On the import side, buyers' procurement willingness remains low due to concerns over the potential exhaustion of Q4 import quotas. Among them, Indian offers to Europe held steady at 650 USD/tonne CFR, while Italian import quotes remained firm at 570 USD/tonne CIF.

European hot-rolled coil supply is set to tighten as revised EU import quotas and CBAM-related costs reduce the availability of imported material, while improving mill order books encourage domestic producers to restart idled capacity, ArcelorMittal said in its second-quarter 2026 results.

Rising compliance costs, a verification bottleneck, and tightening EU import quotas combine to reshape the competitive landscape for Asian stainless steel suppliers in Europe from 2026 onward. The EU CBAM entered its definitive implementation phase on January 1, 2026 — transitioning from a reporting exercise into a mechanism with real trade cost implications.

[Plate/HRC]HRC export deals at 488-494 USD, flat d/d; overseas fears further downside and delays buying HRC and other flat-product export prices were flat day on day, with HRC export deals in the 488-494 USD/tonne range. Overseas buyers reckon prices may still have room to fall and prefer to delay purchasing and watch the market even when holding orders, so little actual volume was released. [Billet]Export billet FOB steady at 458-460 USD ex-Jiangyin; mills hold firm, deals face resistance Export billet FOB held steady, quoted at 458-460 USD/tonne ex-Jiangyin. Domestic mills held offers firm, while importers' essential demand was soft and buyers' bids sat below sellers' floor, leaving spot deals hard to close and actual trade limited. [Rebar]Rebar export flat at 480-485 USD; buyers press price and wait, trade thin Rebar export prices were flat day on day, with deals at 480-485 USD/tonne. Some buyers pressed hard on price and stayed cautious, while domestic sellers, mindful of margins, were unwilling to sell low, so trade saw no meaningful release. [India]India Mumbai HRC down ~3 USD w/w to 602 USD, monsoon curbs demand Mumbai HRC fell about 3 USD/tonne week on week to 602 USD/tonne EXW, with transacted prices around 571-611 USD/tonne. Monsoon weather curbed construction and infrastructure demand, keeping spot buying and restocking weak while low-priced cargoes intensified competition; a soft, sideways tone is expected near term. [Black Sea/CIS]Black Sea billet quiet and steady; Russian mills front-load for Q4 EU tariff-free quota Black Sea billet trade was quiet with FOB offers steadying and to-Turkey quotes around 495-500 USD/tonne CFR; holidays plus soft demand slowed buyers' pace. Russian mills, racing to secure Q4 EU tariff-free quota, have brought some production forward. [Indonesia]Indonesia SAE1008 wire rod at 485 USD, below China; SE-Asia off-season keeps trade thin Indonesia's SAE1008 wire rod export offers held at 485 USD/tonne FOB, clearly below China's comparable ~509 USD/tonne FOB. With Southeast Asia in its seasonal lull, buyers' restocking appetite was limited and, despite the competitive price, actual deals stayed thin. [Brazil/Vietnam]Brazil HRC import quotes down to 600-610 USD; Vietnam cuts prices, ~20kt booked Brazil HRC import quotes slipped to 600-610 USD/tonne CFR, with about 20,000 tonnes of flat-product imports booked recently. Vietnam, the core supplier, was forced to cut offers to win orders against low-priced Indonesian and Indian material, while Brazil's strict import quotas and domestic credit tightening capped restocking.

China Steel Market: [Sheets & Plates] HRC export deals at $488-494, stable DoD; buyers outside China anticipate further declines, leaning towards delayed procurement HRC and other sheet & plate export prices were stable DoD today, with HRC export deal prices at $488-494/mt. Markets outside China believed there was still potential for price declines, and even with orders in hand, they tended to delay procurement and adopt a wait-and-see sentiment, limiting the actual release of deals. [Steel Billet] Billet export FOB remained stable; Jiangyin Port at $458-460; mills held prices firm, deal resistance was significant Steel billet export FOB prices remained stable today, with quotations at Jiangyin Port at $458-460/mt. China steel mills showed a strong intention to hold prices firm, while rigid demand in importing countries outside China was insufficient, and buyer bids were generally below the psychological price levels of mills. Spot cargo deals faced significant resistance, and actual transactions were limited. [Rebar] Rebar exports remained stable temporarily; deals at $480-485; buyers pushed for lower prices and stayed on the sidelines, trading was sluggish Rebar export prices were stable MoM today, with deals at $480-485/mt. Some buyers had a strong desire to bargain down prices and a heavy wait-and-see sentiment; domestic sellers were unwilling to sell cheaply due to profitability considerations, resulting in no significant release of deals. International Steel Market: [India] Mumbai HRC price dropped ~$3 WoW to $602; monsoon dampens demand Mumbai HRC prices dropped approximately $3/mt WoW to $602/mt EXW, with market deals around $571-611/mt. Monsoon weather suppressed construction and infrastructure demand, resulting in weak spot procurement and restocking willingness. Competition among low-priced resources intensified, and prices are expected to consolidate on a subdued note in the near term. [Black Sea/CIS] Black Sea billet trading was sluggish with stable quotes; Russian mills advanced Q4 production schedules to capture EU duty-free quotas Trading in the Black Sea billet market was sluggish, with FOB quotations holding firm, and offers to Turkey at approximately $495-500/mt CFR. The procurement pace of buyers slowed down due to holidays and weak demand. Some Russian steel mills advanced their production schedules to capture Q4 duty-free quotas for the EU. [Indonesia] Indonesian SAE1008 wire rod exports at $485, below China; off-season in Southeast Asia kept deals sluggish Indonesian SAE1008 wire rod export offers held at $485/mt FOB, notably lower than the similar grade from China at approximately $509/mt FOB. Southeast Asia was in its seasonal off-season, limiting buyers' restocking willingness; although the low prices were competitive, actual deals remained sluggish. [Brazil/Vietnam] Brazil HRC import offers fell to $600-610; Vietnam cut prices to secure orders, transactions recorded at about 20,000 mt Brazilian HRC import offers fell to $600-610/mt CFR, with combined sheet & plate import deals of about 20,000 mt recorded recently. Vietnam, as a core supplier, is forced to proactively lower its quotations to stimulate order intake in the face of low-price impacts from Indonesia and India; Brazil's strict import quotas and domestic credit tightening, meanwhile, are curbing restocking activity.

[Brazil] This week, Brazilian HRC import offers dropped to 600–610 USD/tonne CFR, with a combined import contract of approximately 20,000 tonnes of flat steel recently concluded in the market. Notably, facing the impact of lower-priced resources out of Indonesia and India, Vietnam, as a core supplier to Brazil, has been forced to proactively lower its offers to stimulate export bookings. Currently, Brazil's strict import quota system alongside domestic credit tightening has significantly dampened local importers' restocking appetite. Compounded by continuously rising inventories at service centers, downstream demand remains deeply subdued, leaving steel mills struggling with sluggish new order intake.

[Europe] With the new EU import quota mechanism in effect, European HRC prices continue to be pushed higher. Currently, Nordic steel mills are quoting EXW prices of 851 USD/tonne for September delivery (actual transactions at around 817 USD/tonne), while Italian EXW prices for September are quoted at 811–845 USD/tonne (actual transactions at around 794 USD/tonne). As buyers have not yet fully accepted the high prices, overall trading volume is limited. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Q3 HRC quota was exhausted within just one week, and quotas for India and Indonesia have also been more than half consumed. The rapid restriction of overseas resource inflows has strongly supported domestic HRC prices in Europe, and expectations are that prices from most steel mills will continue to rise in the short term.

Tightening supply policy in Indonesia, new import quotas and carbon costs in the EU, and tariff walls in the US pushed benchmark stainless steel prices higher across nearly every major market in the first half of 2026 — even as real demand stayed weak everywhere, turning global trade increasingly into a fight over market access rather than supply and demand.

The EU's revised steel safeguards took effect July 1, cutting annual duty-free import quotas to 18.35 million tonnes. South Korea's country-specific quota was reduced by 19.7% to 2.07 million tonnes. To offset the impact, Seoul plans to stimulate domestic steel demand by strengthening cooperation with shipbuilding, defense and renewable energy sectors, which is expected to generate over 510,000 tonnes of additional steel demand. Korea also intends to continue EU negotiations under the FTA framework while expanding into new export markets to reduce reliance on Europe. Under the new quota system, five countries including Turkey, India, Japan, South Korea and Ukraine secured around 2.74 million tonnes/year of duty-free allocations in category 1A (HRC), representing 53% of the total quota. The overall HRC quota was cut by 59%, with Turkey's quota falling about 60% while Japan's rose roughly 24%.