Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 grade: 11,900-11,900 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 11,300-11,300 yuan/mt This week, China's grain-oriented silicon steel market remained stable overall. Spot prices diverged across regions, but mainstream market quotes held steady. There were no public price adjustment moves in Shanghai or Wuhan, and overall market trading performance was mediocre. Supply side, mainstream steel mills kept their production pace stable. In August, the ex-works base price for GO silicon steel was raised by 50 yuan/mt. Combined with raw material costs, this formed bottom support, and steel mills had a strong willingness to hold prices firm, theoretically providing a floor for spot prices. However, the market was in the traditional demand off-season, and cost-side positives were blocked from transmitting upward, making it difficult to drive spot prices higher. Demand side, downstream transformer enterprises entered the traditional high-temperature off-season, and power grid tender projects were implemented at a relatively slow pace. End-user enterprises adopted conservative procurement strategies. Most only maintained small-scale rigid-demand restocking, and willingness to proactively stockpile in bulk was insufficient. The overall trading atmosphere was sluggish, and market participants remained cautious. Overall, supply and demand continued to contend. Costs and steel mill price adjustments effectively limited the room for deep market price declines, but there was no clear signal of short-term demand recovery. Next week, GO silicon steel is expected to continue its weak but stable consolidation pattern, with market trading still dominated by rigid-demand transactions. Going forward, continue to monitor power grid tender fulfillment progress, downstream operating conditions, and raw material cost fluctuations. Data Source Statement: (Apart from public information, other data in this report are all derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database model. They have been comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team, and are provided for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice. SMM has the final right to interpret the terms of this statement and reserves the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement based on actual circumstances.

Non-oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B50A800 grade: 4,350-4,350 yuan/mt Guangzhou B50A800 grade: 4,150-4,150 yuan/mt Wuhan 50WW800 grade: 4,160-4,160 yuan/mt Shanghai market: This week, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel spot prices in the Shanghai market were in the doldrums, and overall market transactions maintained off-season performance. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures consolidated this week, market confidence recovered somewhat, the current supply-demand imbalance was relatively pronounced, demand visibly weakened, and most downstream motor enterprises mainly purchased as needed, with low stockpiling willingness. Overall, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel prices in the Shanghai market are expected to remain in the doldrums next week, with expectations of following cost declines. Guangzhou market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Guangzhou was in the doldrums, and transactions were somewhat sluggish. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures consolidated this week, and the spot market lacked direction. However, the industry is currently in its traditional consumption off-season, downstream end-users such as motor and appliance enterprises maintained low operating rates, purchasing sentiment was cautious and conservative, and typhoon and rainstorm weather affected sales, making the market even more sluggish. Overall, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel prices in the Guangzhou market are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Wuhan market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Wuhan was in the doldrums, with prices generally declining by 30-50 yuan/mt and lackluster transactions. Market feedback indicated that futures consolidated, downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, demand resilience was insufficient, and traders reported that actual transactions were average, and they held cautious expectations for the future market outlook and chose to control inventory levels. Overall, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel spot prices in the Wuhan market are expected to remain in the doldrums next week. Data Source Statement: (All other data in this report are derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, NBS data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communications, and the SMM internal database model, and are obtained through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference by the research team; they are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.) SMM has the final right to interpret the terms of this statement and reserves the right to adjust and amend the content of this statement according to actual circumstances.

July Price Review ： Domestic grain-oriented silicon steel prices rose first and then retreated in July. Supported by rigid demand from downstream transformer manufacturers as well as orders in the new energy and UHV sectors from early to mid-July, mainstream grades including B23R085 climbed to cyclical highs. Nevertheless, persistently high prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, market trading turned sluggish, and spot prices came under pressure and fell at month-end, ending the upward rally. In view of forward expectations, the market generally holds the view that this round of price surge has come to an end. Fundamental Analysis Domestic steel mills plan to maintain roughly the same output of grain-oriented silicon steel in August as in July, sustaining high production levels with no obvious tightening in supply delivery pace. In terms of product mix, production is still overwhelmingly dominated by high magnetic induction (HIB) grain-oriented silicon steel, while the output proportion of conventional CGO grain-oriented silicon steel remains low. Output of both varieties changes little compared with July. Steel mills have no intention of carrying out concentrated voluntary production cuts. The continuously ample supply keeps weighing on the spot market and creates obvious resistance to further price hikes. Newly added installed capacity of various power sources showed divergent performance in June, forming structural support for grain-oriented silicon steel demand. Newly installed thermal power capacity maintained relatively strong year-on-year growth. Thermal power supporting step-up transformers and auxiliary transformers for power plants continued to generate rigid demand for grain-oriented silicon steel. Newly installed hydropower capacity increased substantially, driving demand for main and auxiliary transformers of hydropower stations. Newly installed wind and solar power capacity was weaker than the same period of previous years, leading to limited incremental demand for box transformers and main transformers supporting new energy. Newly installed nuclear power capacity declined, resulting in periodic weakening of demand for special grain-oriented silicon steel for nuclear power applications. Overall, construction of traditional power sources gained momentum in June. Thermal and hydropower installed capacity contributed major incremental demand, supporting orders for large power transformers and further boosting demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel. Insufficient incremental wind and solar power installations offset part of the demand growth. Therefore, demand presented a structural pattern: strong demand from traditional power sources and weak demand from the new energy sector. August Price Outlook Looking ahead to August 2026: On the supply side, domestic supply of grain-oriented silicon steel will edge down slightly. Major state-owned steel mills will basically continue high-load production, while some private enterprises will conduct minor maintenance, leaving overall supply broadly stable. Despite the price correction of grain-oriented silicon steel in July, most steel mills still enjoy decent profits. In addition, leading steel mills including Baowu lifted the August base price of grain-oriented silicon steel by RMB 50 per tonne, demonstrating obvious price-support sentiment and sound overall production enthusiasm. Deliveries of high-grade products remain steady; however, sufficient supply of conventional grades has brought inventory pressure to the market. On the demand side, China’s 15th Five-Year Plan UHV projects keep being launched. Transformer enterprises prioritize fulfilling supporting orders for UHV construction, and demand for high-grade grain-oriented silicon steel used in transformers for new energy grid interconnection stays resilient. Nevertheless, the impact of the high-temperature off-season will surface in August. Most downstream enterprises will only conduct inventory replenishment for rigid demand. The conversion of tender orders issued by State Grid and China Southern Power Grid is subject to time lags, and enterprises lack motivation for proactive stockpiling. Furthermore, India’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation against Chinese grain-oriented silicon steel has disrupted exports. Cargo diverted from overseas markets flows back and continuously hits the domestic market, putting prices under pressure. On the cost side, hot rolled coil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in August with limited upward momentum, and the monthly average price will continue to decline month-on-month. In summary, SMM forecasts that grain-oriented silicon steel prices will fluctuate on a weak trend in August 2026. High-grade grades will be relatively resilient against price falls, while conventional grades will face more prominent downward pressure. Data source statement: (Data in this report other than public information are all sourced from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and are produced by the research team through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference; they are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.) SMM reserves the final right of interpretation of the terms of this statement and the right to adjust and amend the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Copper Import and Export Market] On August 13, SMM Chinese bonded warehouse copper cathode inventories stood at 35,200 mt, up 4,100 mt WoW. According to SMM, the increase in bonded warehouse inventories was mainly due to: 1. the recent opening of the export window, which created export arbitrage opportunities for some copper cathode and led to a concentration of cargoes in the bonded warehouse; 2. the earlier successive arrivals of cancelled warrants from LME Asian warehouses, which further lifted inventory levels.

Data Source Statement: All data in this report, other than publicly available information, are derived from public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, customs import and export data, and various data published by major associations and institutions), market communication, and SMM’s internal database models. They are produced through comprehensive analysis and reasonable inference by the research team, are for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making advice. Shanghai Metals Market reserves the right of final interpretation of this statement and the right to adjust and amend its content based on actual circumstances.

H1 2026 sulfur imports fell by 771,000 mt YoY, a decline of nearly 30%. Combined imports from the four Middle Eastern countries (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) dropped by 1.52 million mt, a decrease of 62%. Canada emerged as a new major source, with imports rising from 172,000 mt to 328,000 mt (+90%), making it the second-largest origin. The average price in June surged to $885/mt, forming a pattern of “volume decline and price increase”.

SMM, August 10: Metals market: Last Friday overnight, base metals across domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising together. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. Other metals fell within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while the aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Last Friday overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance: stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar ended flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Last Friday overnight, in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight last Friday, reclaiming $4,400/oz, and surged 7.17% for the week; COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight last Friday, up 10.41% for the week. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold gained 5.03% for the week, while SHFE silver gained 9.43%. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said: "The current gold rally has fundamental support. We expect gold prices to march toward $5,000 per ounce in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war on Iran in late February, gold prices briefly pulled back under pressure. UBS strategists said: Risks remain in the short term. If oil prices rise or the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and increased bond appeal, gold prices will face pressure; however, the institution remains optimistic on gold's medium- and long-term outlook. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged this year and resume its rate-cutting cycle in 2027. "Growing expectations for lower policy rates are likely to suppress real yields and weigh on the dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal." (Wall Street CN) As of 7:40 on August 8, last Friday's overnight closing quotes: Macro front Domestic: [Over 30 trillion yuan! China's goods trade imports and exports continued growth momentum in the first seven months of this year] The General Administration of Customs released data today showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Of which, exports reached 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports reached 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Of this, exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8% YoY, and imports reached 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2% YoY. SMM compiled the import and export data for some metal industry products based on figures released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: [H1 aluminum industry profit up about 115% YoY, aluminum semis and aluminum products exports up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, the aluminum industry's profit rose about 115% YoY. While aluminum prices increased, raw material costs such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises also further adopted green electricity like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and gaining cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients pressing for orders, but overseas clients were also placing more orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, up about 14% YoY. More orders and busier production lines meant environmental protection facilities were running at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: Housing Provident Fund Maximum Loan Amount to Be Moderately Raised; Married Couples' First-Home Provident Fund Loan Can Be Up to 3.4 Million Yuan] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." The notice mentioned that the maximum housing provident fund loan amount will be moderately raised. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home it is 1 million yuan. For families where both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan amount for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home it is 2 million yuan. For those meeting the following conditions, the maximum loan amount can be further increased: 1. For households registered in the six urban districts purchasing a first home outside those districts, the maximum can be raised by 200,000 yuan; 2. For home purchases that comply with the city's policies supporting green building development, the maximum can be raised by 400,000 yuan; 3. For Beijing-registered families with two or more children purchasing a home, it can be raised by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met, the maximum loan amount can be raised cumulatively: for a family with one contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of last Friday’s overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, down 0.18% for the week and recording a two-week losing streak. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below the market expectation of an 80,000 increase; data for May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000, and the labour force participation rate hit its lowest in over five years. The disappointing jobs data caused the probability of a September rate hike to plunge from 55% to 44%, the 10-year Treasury yield dived from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index briefly fell below 99.5 intraday. ‘Fed whisperer’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a hard one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence that the labour market is re-accelerating, which may partly weaken the case for a rate hike next month, though this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the 12 voting members voted for a hike. A falling unemployment rate will keep attention focused on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest New York Fed survey showed that Americans’ overall perceptions of the job market improved in July, while their inflation expectations also shifted. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. The increase was most pronounced among those with a high school education or less and households with annual incomes below $50,000. Consumers became more optimistic about the stock market, with the expected probability that stock prices would rise in a year reaching the highest since April 2021 for this series. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s “FedWatch”: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, with a 40.1% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For October, the probabilities are: rates unchanged (45.3%), a cumulative 25bp hike (44.9%), and a cumulative 50bp hike (9.8%). (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week, China will release the July M2 money supply y/y data, among others; the US will release the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly change in ADP employment for the week ended July 25, July existing home sales annualized, July CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, July CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI m/m seasonally adjusted, July core CPI y/y not seasonally adjusted, the high yield and bid-to-cover ratio for the 10-year Treasury auction on August 12, initial jobless claims for the week ended August 8, July PPI y/y and m/m, July retail sales m/m, the preliminary August one-year inflation expectations, June business inventories m/m, and the preliminary August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; the eurozone will release the August Sentix Investor Confidence Index, June industrial production m/m, the revised Q2 GDP y/y, final Q2 employment q/q seasonally adjusted, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release the preliminary Q2 GDP y/y, June three-month GDP m/m, June manufacturing output m/m, June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and June industrial production m/m; data including France’s July final CPI m/m, Canada’s June wholesale sales m/m, Japan’s June trade balance, the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on August 11, and Germany’s July final CPI m/m will also be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan releases the Summary of Opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivers a speech. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attends a hearing. Crude oil: Both crude oil benchmarks fell in overnight trading last Friday, with WTI down 0.27% and Brent down 0.13%. Weekly, WTI dropped 8.96% and Brent fell 6.31%. The market remains focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of a US-Iran peace agreement have compressed the geopolitical risk premium. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimates Brent's fair value at $80 and maintains a consolidation range of $80-90. On August 7, US officials said that progress has been made between Oman and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift the blockade on Iranian ports. US actions will continue to depend on actual performance and will be linked to Iran’s compliance with its commitments. Regarding the above, Iran and Oman have yet to respond. (CCTV) It was learned on August 7 that Hassan Kashkavi, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman have clarified the overall framework of the memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be released soon. On August 6, Iran disclosed preliminary text details of the proposed Strait of Hormuz strategic management plan, which includes prohibiting hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators to be fined up to 20% of the cargo value. Iran has repeatedly stressed in recent days that arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and will never accept any external intervention. Meanwhile, US President Trump said on the 6th that the US is participating in the negotiations on the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) This week, the EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA publishes its monthly oil market report, and OPEC issues its monthly oil market report (specific release times are to be confirmed, typically around 18-21 Beijing time). China's refined oil products will open a new round of price adjustment window.

According to customs statistics, in the first seven months of 2026, the total import and export value of China's goods trade reached 30.13 trillion yuan, a YoY (the same hereinafter) increase of 17.3%. Exports were 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%; imports were 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, the total import and export value of China's goods trade was 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2%. Exports were 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%; imports were 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. By trade mode, in the first seven months, China's ordinary trade imports and exports reached 18.13 trillion yuan, up 10.2%; processing trade imports and exports stood at 5.81 trillion yuan, up 26.3%; bonded logistics imports and exports were 5.18 trillion yuan, up 40.8%. By trading partner, in the first seven months, China's trade with ASEAN totaled 5.14 trillion yuan, up 20%; with the EU, it was 3.67 trillion yuan, up 9.5%; with the US, it was 2.38 trillion yuan, down 1.6%. Over the same period, China's combined imports and exports with Belt and Road partner countries amounted to 15.36 trillion yuan, up 15.5%. By type of enterprise, in the first seven months, private enterprises' imports and exports stood at 17.16 trillion yuan, up 17.2%; foreign-invested enterprises' imports and exports were 8.78 trillion yuan, up 17.6%; state-owned enterprises' imports and exports reached 4.14 trillion yuan, up 17.3%. By key commodities, On the export side, in the first seven months, China exported 11.12 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 21.2%; labor-intensive products 2.37 trillion yuan, down 1.4%; agricultural products 429.69 billion yuan, up 3.7%. On the import side, in the first seven months, China imported 5.31 trillion yuan of mechanical and electrical products, up 29.7%; 283 million mt of crude oil, down 13.2%; and 904.1 billion yuan of agricultural products, up 7.4%. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM has compiled the import and export situation of some metal industry products as follows: Exports: In July 2026, rare earth exports were 4,223.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 29.5% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 34,706.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 10% from January-July 2025. In July 2026, steel exports were 10.121 million mt, a YoY increase of 2.9% from July 2025 . Cumulative exports for January-July 2026 were 6,499.5 mt, a YoY decrease of 4.4 % from January-July 2025. In July 2026, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis were 643,000 mt , a YoY increase of 18.6% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative exports were 4.039 million mt, a YoY increase of 16.7% from January-July 2025. Imports: In July 2026, iron ore and concentrates imports were 108.085 million mt, a YoY increase of 3.3% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 736.841 million mt, a YoY increase of 5.9% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, copper ore and concentrates imports were 2.379 million mt, a YoY decrease of 7.1% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 16.985 million mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, coal and lignite imports were 42.728 million mt, a YoY increase of 20% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 268.109 million mt, a YoY increase of 4.3% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, rare earth imports reached 9,451.3 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.8% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 63,323.0 mt, a YoY decrease of 65.5% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, steel imports reached 445,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 1.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports reached 3.14 million mt, a YoY decrease of 10.1% from January-July 2025 . In July 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 425,000 mt, a YoY decrease of 11.5% from July 2025 . In January-July 2026, cumulative imports were 2.915 million mt, a YoY decrease of 6.2 % .

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.211 million mt of steel products in July 2026, down 199,000 mt MoM, or 1.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to July reached 64.995 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. In July 2026, China imported 445,000 mt of steel products, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Table 1: Steel Imports and Exports Data Summary, January-July Source: SMM • China's steel exports stayed elevated with fluctuations in July According to SMM's July export schedule survey, the planned HRC export volume for the month was 1.059 million mt, slightly higher than actual exports in June. SMM export order data showed that export orders for steel products declined from a high level in May. At that time, port inspections on MD and other activities were relatively strict, which slowed down the pace of some export orders. However, orders at steel mills improved slightly. Coupled with the fact that cargoes delayed due to earlier inspections were gradually shipped out in July, overall steel exports in July still delivered a relatively decent performance. Table 2: China's Total Steel Exports Source: SMM • July steel imports remained low On the import side, steel imports in July were 445,000 mt, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Net exports of steel reached 61.855 million mt. Short-term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing slid further MoM; overseas demand remained in off-season mode According to J.P. Morgan's global PMI data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 52.1. Although it remained in expansion territory, the pace of expansion slowed for the third consecutive month. The preemptive steel stockpiling demand earlier triggered by geopolitical disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping has been fully cleared. Combined with persistently weak demand for consumer goods, property, and infrastructure among end-users in Europe and the US, global commodity and physical steel orders collectively fell into contraction territory. Alongside this, ASEAN manufacturing PMI also declined again. China's Manufacturing New Export Orders Index for July was 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, slipping back into contraction territory. 2. Overseas steel mills have proactively controlled production; supply contraction lacks sustainability In June 2026, global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt. In China, as the southern rainy season and high-temperature off-season deepened, downstream steel product construction was significantly hampered. Under heavy pressure from persistently inverted profit margins, steel mills' monthly output edged down 0.8% MoM. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world declined 2.0% MoM, with performance diverging in Asia's core regions. India and Vietnam both saw flat MoM output in June; the former was supported by robust domestic infrastructure resilience, while the latter benefited from earlier concentrated stockpiling and steady operation following new capacity ramp-up. In contrast, Japan and South Korea were dragged by slowing production schedules in downstream automotive and manufacturing sectors, showing a seasonal slight correction. Notably, the Middle East and CIS regions, which had plunged deeply in May, saw marginal recovery. Meanwhile, Europe and the US collectively entered a seasonal weakening trajectory. EU production in June dropped significantly by 5.3% MoM, with Germany tumbling 9.4%; North America declined 5.9% MoM and the US also fell 4.0%. The main reasons for the pullback in Europe and the US were, on one hand, the industry's entry into the routine summer maintenance period, and on the other, the high summer electricity prices and steel scrap prices squeezing electric furnace margins, significantly dampening mills' willingness to operate. The decline in overseas production theoretically offers structural opportunities for China's exports. However, the drops in end markets like Europe and the US were more due to proactive production cuts driven by falling demand. Coupled with India and Vietnam still maintaining high output, China's exports continue to face pressure. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage continued to narrow; export order-taking pressure persisted As of July 31, 2026, the HRC export offers (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $515/mt, $575/mt, and $515/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $486/mt. China's HRC offers were -$29/mt, -$89/mt, and -$29/mt lower than those other countries, respectively. China's steel export price advantage further narrowed MoM from June. Overseas markets remained in the off-season, and low-price promotions remained the main channel for those countries to ease domestic pressures. In contrast, domestic sales pressure was not evident, and prices remained relatively firm. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and pressure on export order-taking persisted. Figure 2: HRC Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders rebounded from a bottom in June-July; order-taking improved slightly According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, the planned HRC export volume this month was 1.023 million mt, down 2.8% MoM from the actual level last month. SMM steel export order data showed that although overseas markets remained in the off-season, recent restrictions on resource exports from the Middle East (especially Iran) created a notable supply gap in semi-finished products in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia. This shortfall was quickly filled by Chinese resources. On the other hand, traders took profits from spot-futures price spread operations in late July, offering lower actual prices to facilitate transactions, which led to a bottoming rebound in export order data in July. In reality, overseas demand had not yet emerged from the off-season, and a steady recovery in export order-taking still faces pressure. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volume Source: SMM 5. Anti-dumping cases related to steel increased in July In July, the number of new anti-dumping cases related to steel initiated against China increased, covering products such as steel pipes, coated steel, sections, coiled rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils. Details of specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in July Source: SMM Taking all factors into account, lower actual transaction prices stimulated some volume growth, with semi-finished products accounting for a larger share. Given that July export numbers have already been significantly elevated, SMM expects that total steel exports in August will not sustain a strong unilateral upward trend. Instead, they will move sideways in a high range, while semi-finished product exports will remain relatively high. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For requests related to reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to holding the infringing party liable for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. Scan the QR code for free access to information Scan to join the group Scan to add WeChat for consultation

Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B50A800 grade: 4,350-4,350 yuan/mt Guangzhou B50A800 grade: 4,150-4,150 yuan/mt Wuhan 50WW800 grade: 4,200-4,200 yuan/mt Shanghai market: This week, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market were in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 30-100 yuan/mt and overall transaction performance was poor. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures were weak at first then strengthened later, leading to heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Currently still in the off-season, downstream motor enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, traders were cautious in ordering and maintained low inventory strategies, and overall market inventory remained at low levels. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market are expected to be in the doldrums next week. Guangzhou market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Guangzhou was in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 30-50 yuan/mt and transactions being sluggish. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures were first down then up, slightly restoring market confidence, but the industry is currently in the traditional consumption off-season. Downstream end-users such as motor and appliance enterprises maintained low operating rates, and their procurement sentiment was cautious and conservative, continuing to purchase as needed, with overall stockpiling willingness remaining low. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Guangzhou market are expected to be in the doldrums next week. Wuhan market: This week, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel prices in Wuhan were in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 50-80 yuan/mt and transaction performance was poor. Market feedback indicated that the current market resource circulation was limited, and cost support remained, leading to some recovery in market expectations, but traders were cautious about future market trends and continued to control inventory levels. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Wuhan are expected to be in the doldrums next week. Data Source Statement: (All data in this report, except for public information, are based on public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, customs import and export data, and various data released by major associations and institutions), market communication, and rely on SMM's internal database models, and are comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. SMM reserves the right of final interpretation of this statement and the right to adjust and modify the statement content according to actual circumstances.