SMM May 28 update: The minor metal sector strengthened on May 28. As of the close on May 28, the minor metal sector rose 3.44%. In terms of individual stocks: Sino-Platinum Metals, Yunnan Germanium Industry, and China Molybdenum hit the daily limit, while China Minmetals Rare Earth, China Tungsten And Hightech, China Northern Rare Earth, and China Rare Earth led the gains. On the news front: According to authoritative local media in Zimbabwe and Xinhua News Agency, the Zimbabwean government recently issued the Mineral Classification and Declaration, explicitly listing lithium and other high-value minerals as "critical minerals" subject to equity and export controls. The critical minerals involved include 14 types: lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, copper, rare earth elements, chromium, platinum group metals (PGMs), manganese, antimony, uranium, ruthenium, tungsten, and niobium. The market is focused on the impact of tightening resource-country policies on global supply chains, with sentiment warming for minor metal varieties such as antimony and tungsten. Spot market Tungsten According to SMM pricing, on May 28, the average price of wolframite concentrates (≥65%) was 415,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), up 1.22% from the previous trading day. Notably, after wolframite concentrates previously experienced a 61.88% decline over more than two months, driven by increased purchasing demand in the tungsten market, tungsten prices saw a rebound over two trading days. Currently, transactions in the tungsten concentrates market have improved, suppliers are bullish and hold back from selling, high-grade ore sees an upward shift in transaction center, while medium and low-grade ore circulates more but price increases appear lackluster. Downstream APT industry operating rates have slightly improved, but with limited new orders in the industry, smelters are cautious in restocking, with only small volumes of spot orders and large orders transacted in the market. Regarding the tungsten outlook, in the short term, driven by orderly inventory destocking, the return of downstream rigid demand, and the formation of pricing consensus among industry leaders, the tungsten market has overall entered a consolidation-at-lows and recovery phase. Going forward, key attention should be paid to the execution of long-term contracts and the pace of end-use demand recovery. According to SMM surveys, downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises have seen inventory drop to low levels, with expectations of rigid restocking demand, but influenced by the market not yet being fully stabilized, enterprises remain cautious in procurement, generally adopting a small-order purchasing model. If upstream raw material inventory continues to be cleared and supply-demand imbalances are alleviated, tungsten prices are expected to enter a stabilization and consolidation phase in June-July. In the medium and long-term, the gap in Q3 mining quota transitions may lead to a contraction in market supply, coupled with expectations of the traditional September-October peak season, the industrial supply-demand structure will continue to optimize, thereby providing bullish support for tungsten prices. Rare Earths After the rally on May 27, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide on May 28 fell 1.79% from the previous trading day, and inquiries in the rare earth oxide market were sluggish on the 28th. Affected by futures price fluctuations combined with periodic restocking by some major producers, Pr-Nd oxide prices fluctuated frequently this week. Upstream and downstream players continued their stalemate, with suppliers maintaining relatively firm offers overall, while downstream metal producers maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment and showed low purchase willingness at high prices. Absent other news-driven factors, Pr-Nd oxide is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term before any significant change in the supply-demand relationship. Institutional Views Huafu Securities noted in its research report dated May 24, when commenting on other minor metals: rare earths performed weakly, while tantalum pentoxide surged during the week. In the rare earth market, end-use demand from downstream magnetic material sectors remained weak, with no large-scale concentrated restocking observed — only sporadic rigid-demand small orders were transacted, and the demand side consistently failed to provide effective support for the market. Market sentiment fluctuated significantly, with frequent tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Overall industry confidence was insufficient, with a notable stalemate between upstream and downstream on offer and bid prices, and significant divergence within the industry regarding the outlook for subsequent market trends. On Friday, the market maintained a wait-and-see attitude, awaiting changes in the magnetic material restocking pace and a recovery in downstream demand. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, China Moly, China Gold, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. Kaiyuan Securities' mid-year 2026 investment strategy for the metals sector indicated: Copper: Supply side, most ex-China miners continued to face declining ore grades and recovery rates, with disruption factors persisting (Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine). Although China's domestic enterprises added incremental capacity, the overall increase was limited. Under optimistic assumptions, global supply growth from 2026 to 2027 may fall below 2%. Demand side, power demand in both China and the U.S. maintained high growth rates in H1, which is expected to contribute marginal incremental copper demand. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the supply-demand structural imbalance for copper will become more pronounced in 2026, supporting a rise in the copper price center. Lithium: Supply side, capital expenditure in the lithium industry contracted and supply discipline gradually took shape. Combined with frequent disruptions, supply elasticity in the lithium industry has declined notably compared to before. Meanwhile, energy storage demand sustained high prosperity, driving gradual improvement in the lithium demand structure and marginal easing of inventory pressure. Lithium prices are expected to see a phased recovery. Lithium enterprises with resource security, low-cost advantages, and integrated layouts are expected to see earnings recovery elasticity outperforming the industry average. Lithium mine and lithium chemicals companies with high resource self-sufficiency rates and strong cost control capabilities are worth watching. Tungsten: As a strategic metal where China holds a dominant position, tungsten ore supply is constrained by resource depletion, environmental protection, and other factors. Combined with the government's total volume control on tungsten ore mining, tungsten ore production release remains limited. Demand side, emerging sectors are boosting tungsten demand, which is expected to provide long-term support for tungsten prices. According to a CITIC Securities research report, the current metals sector valuation remains at a reasonable level, with aluminum, copper, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and gold valuations at relatively low levels, and a valuation rebound is still anticipated. Sector dividends have pulled back slightly, but the projected dividend yields of some individual stocks still exceed 5%. Looking ahead to 2026, liquidity shocks are expected to ease, supply disruptions are expected to occur frequently, and certain downstream sectors are expected to sustain relatively high prosperity. It is recommended to maintain a focus on allocation opportunities in lithium, copper, rare earths, strategic metals, aluminum, and gold sectors. Recommended Reading:

On April 29, Tibet Huayu Mining released its Q1 2026 production and operation data announcement. The report showed that in Q1 2026, zinc concentrates production totaled 2,070 mt in metal content, lead-antimony concentrates with silver content reached 1,489 mt in metal content, and gold concentrates reached 323.6 kg.

SMM April 20 News: Affected by tight raw material supply, germanium prices rose over 27% in more than three months. Meanwhile, production halts at some separation plants provided supply-side support for rare earths. Combined with downstream enterprise inventories falling to low levels and downstream restocking demand, rare earth prices continued to rise. The surge in end-use demand from AI computing power, semiconductors, robotics, and other sectors also brought positive demand expectations to the minor metal sector. Coupled with inflows of some market funds, the minor metal sector rose for three consecutive trading days. As of the close on April 20, the minor metal sector gained 3%. In terms of individual stocks: Yunnan Germanium Industry and Western Metal Materials hit the daily limit, while China Rare Colored Metals, Tin Industry Co., Eastern Tantalum Industry, China Tungsten Hightech, China Rare Earth, and China Northern Rare Earth were among the top gainers. Spot Market Rare Earths Spot market side, Pr-Nd oxide prices continued to strengthen over the past two trading days. On April 20, Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 800,000-805,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 802,500 yuan/mt, up 0.94% from the previous trading day. Driven by tight supply expectations from production halts at some separation plants, upstream suppliers had a strong mentality to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, while downstream enterprises were currently at low inventory levels. The rebound in rare earth prices brought some restocking demand into the market, further supporting continued rare earth price increases. As the average price of Pr-Nd oxide rose above 800,000 yuan/mt again, wait-and-see sentiment in the market gradually intensified, while downstream magnetic material enterprises had limited acceptance of high-priced metals, and purchasing enthusiasm declined. In the short term, supported by strong upstream confidence in holding prices firm, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to hover at highs. Germanium Affected by tight raw material supply, the price center of germanium shifted upward overall. On April 20, SMM germanium ingot was priced at 15,000-19,500 yuan/kg, with an average price of 17,250 yuan/kg, flat from the previous trading day. The average price of 17,250 yuan/kg on the 20th was up 3,750 yuan/kg from the low of 13,500 yuan/kg on January 14, a gain of 27.77% over more than three months. Institutional Views According to a Huafu Securities research report, the main drivers behind the sharp rise in rare earth Pr-Nd prices last week included the dual effects of supply-side tightening and demand-side recovery. In terms of supply, the market widely reflected tightening rare earth raw material supply, especially as news of significant production cuts or halts at some enterprises was circulating recently, with quotes continuing to tighten. From January to February 2026, cumulative rare earth exports reached 10,468 mt, up 23% YoY; of which February alone saw exports of 4,407 mt, up 37% YoY. Robust export demand diverted spot cargo resources in China, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. In the short term, the market is still expected to fluctuate upward, but caution is warranted against resistance to transactions at high levels. Individual stocks: for antimony, Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining are recommended; for molybdenum, Jinduicheng Molybdenum, China Gold International, and CMOC; for tungsten, Jiaxin International Resources, China Tungsten High-Tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten; for rare earths, China Rare Earth, China Northern Rare Earth, JL MAG Rare-Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten. A research report from Guojin Securities noted that the earlier impact of electronic trading platform liquidity was gradually being digested, and prices were stabilizing; combined with expectations of more relaxed exports going forward, we are more optimistic about subsequent demand; the export rush coupled with ongoing supply-side reforms points to a promising resonance in rare earth supply and demand. A research report from Dongguan Securities stated that, looking ahead, the growth rate of rare earth supply-side quotas in China is expected to slow down. Demand side, humanoid robots, the low-altitude economy, and other sectors are expected to open up a second growth driver for rare earth demand this year, and the supply-demand logic of the rare earth industry is expected to be further optimized. The slowdown in quota growth in China, combined with limited incremental supply outside China, points to continued tightening of overall supply. Recommended reading:

On April 11, Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd. issued a disclosure announcement regarding the signing of a "Share Transfer Agreement" and a "Concert Party Agreement" by its controlling shareholder, as well as the proposed change of control. According to the announcement, the equity change involved Henan Wanyang Qixin Management Co., Ltd. acquiring 90,196,117 shares of Tibet Huayu Mining Co., Ltd. held by Tibet Daoheng Investment Co., Ltd. through a negotiated transfer, accounting for 11.00% of the publicly listed firm's total share capital. In 2024, Tibet Huayu's production of zinc concentrates was 19,600 mt in metal content, lead-antimony concentrates (silver-bearing) 16,500 mt in metal content, gold concentrates 1.87 mt, and antimony concentrates 1,500 mt in metal content.

【SMM News Flash】Huayu Mining (601020) announced on January 27 that it expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm ranging from 800 million yuan to 900 million yuan for the full year of 2025, up 215.8% to 255.28% YoY. During the reporting period, demand for nonferrous metals in domestic and overseas markets remained robust, and prices continued to rise. The company fully benefited from the sustained prosperity in the precious metals and minor metal markets, driving a substantial YoY increase in its operating revenue.

Huayu Mining (601020.SH) released its 2025 annual performance forecast, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm to be between 800 million yuan and 900 million yuan, an increase of 215.80% to 255.28% YoY. The reasons for the performance change: during the reporting period, demand in the nonferrous metals market was robust and prices rose; the company benefited from the favorable conditions in the precious metals and minor metal markets, leading to a substantial growth in operating revenue; at the same time, non-recurring gains and losses increased significantly YoY.

[Semi-Annual Report Disclosure] The semi-annual report of Huayu Mining for 2025 disclosed that during the reporting period, the company completed a mining volume of 319,600 mt and ore processing volume of 328,500 mt. The Shannan branch achieved metal content of lead+zinc+antimony totaling 19,434.39 mt (lead: 7,793.14 mt, zinc: 10,273.38 mt, antimony: 1,367.87 mt), and silver metal content of 34,055.21 kg.