SMM June 27 News: Metals market: Last Friday’s overnight session saw nearly all base metals on the domestic market rise. SHFE zinc gained 2.16%, SHFE copper rose 0.9%, SHFE aluminum edged up 0.81%, and SHFE tin advanced 1.66%. SHFE nickel increased 0.36%. SHFE lead dipped 0.37%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract climbed 0.64%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 1.66%. Last Friday’s overnight session saw mostly gains in ferrous metals. Stainless steel added 0.48%, iron ore rose 0.54%, and rebar slipped 0.1%. Hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,312 yuan/mt. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract gained 1.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.21%. Last Friday’s overnight session in overseas metals saw broad gains for LME base metals. LME copper edged up. LME aluminum rose 0.39%, while LME lead fell 0.58%. LME zinc gained 1.8%. LME tin advanced 1.69%. LME nickel dipped 0.36%. Last Friday’s overnight session in precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.37%, but COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly decline, down 3.37% for the week; COMEX silver gained 1.37%, while COMEX silver fell for a seventh straight week, down 10.79% for the week. Last Friday’s overnight session saw the most-traded SHFE gold contract rise 1.34%, but SHFE gold declined on a weekly basis, down 6.33% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 2.61%, while SHFE silver declined on a weekly basis, down 15.23% for the week. Macquarie strategists noted that all eyes are currently on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks, particularly the US Fed, will tighten policy to control prices. The apparent end of the Middle East conflict, combined with a more hawkish Fed stance, has led to a pullback in gold prices. The first meeting under new Fed Chair Walsh struck a “hawkish” tone, with the central bank under his leadership having the capacity to either “drive or suppress” the gold market. The shock from the Middle East situation is expected to drag on global growth in Q3, after which an eventual rebound in global growth and the start of a monetary easing cycle should push gold prices lower, as more investor funds rotate out of precious metals and into other assets. Investors have been taking profits and rotating into equities, which has created room for re-entry into precious metals and could drive a price rebound, but a significant macro event may be needed to reignite investor interest in gold. Spot gold prices are forecast to average $4,641 in 2026, up 35% YoY, but the average price is expected to decline 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027, followed by yearly declines through 2030. The bank lowered its year-end spot gold forecast to $4,300 from $4,400. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 7:46 a.m. on June 27, closing prices from last Friday’s overnight session: Macro front China: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Profits of China’s industrial enterprises above designated size grew 18.8% in January–May, with the electronics sector providing significant support] Data from the NBS showed that total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide reached 3,143.96 billion yuan in January–May, up 18.8% YoY. From January to May, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises realized total profits of 1,048.66 billion yuan, up 19.6% YoY; joint-stock enterprises realized total profits of 2,434.81 billion yuan, up 24.1% YoY; foreign-invested enterprises and those funded by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan investors realized total profits of 695.72 billion yuan, up 4.2% YoY; and private enterprises realized total profits of 772.65 billion yuan, up 10.7% YoY. Yu Weining, chief statistician of the Industrial Department of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises for January–May 2026. Yu Weining noted that the electronics sector played a significant supporting role. From January to May, profits of the equipment manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.1% YoY, boosting the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 5.2 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the global AI technology revolution has led to explosive demand for high-end computing power chips and memory chips, driving rapid profit growth in the electronics sector. From January to May, profits of the electronics industry surged 103.9% YoY, contributing 43.1% to the profit growth of all industrial enterprises above designated size, making it a crucial underpinning for the relatively rapid profit growth of these enterprises. [Series of 7 National Standards for "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" Released] At a press conference held by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), it was announced that the series of national standards "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" has been officially released. With the rapid iteration of technologies such as large models, artificial intelligence is accelerating from the stage of perception and understanding into a new phase of generative decision-making and autonomous execution. An agent, as an intelligent system with capabilities in autonomous perception, memory, decision-making, interaction, and execution, represents an important application form of next-generation AI. It is also a key vehicle for AI technology to empower diverse industries and underpin high-quality development of the intelligent economy. The seven national standards in the "Artificial Intelligence — Agent Interconnection" series released this time comprehensively cover core aspects including overall architecture, identity codes, identity management, agent description, agent discovery, agent interaction, and agent tool invocation. They systematically establish a closed-loop standards framework encompassing "identity identification—capability description—supply-demand discovery—collaborative interaction—tool invocation," effectively filling the standard gap in this field. With unified architecture and interaction rules established through these standards, enterprises can reuse standardized components, reduce customized development, and shorten time-to-market. At the same time, they lay an institutional foundation for cross-domain trustworthiness and secure interaction by establishing unified identity authentication and full traceability mechanisms. (CCTV News) The People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs have issued a notice to solicit public opinions on the "Administrative Measures for the Import and Export of Gold and Gold Products (Draft for Comments)." (From Wall Street CN APP) [Three Departments: Further Improve Work Related to Collection of Mineral Rights Transfer Proceeds] The Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Natural Resources, and State Taxation Administration have issued a notice on further improving the collection of mineral rights transfer proceeds, clarifying that late payment penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will no longer be collected starting August 1, 2026. If a mining rights holder fails to pay the mineral rights transfer proceeds in full and on time, a penalty of 0.2% per day will be charged from the date of default, with the total penalty not exceeding the principal amount owed. Penalties for mineral rights transfer proceeds will be recorded under the mineral rights transfer proceeds category and shared between central and local governments according to the same proportion as mineral rights transfer proceeds. Late payment penalties that have already accrued before the implementation of this notice shall continue to be paid in accordance with previous regulations, and penalty charges will not apply. US Dollar: The overnight US dollar index fell 0.1% last Friday, closing at 101.36. On a weekly basis, the dollar index recorded its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 0.6% for the week. US Treasury yields and the dollar edged lower as oil prices declined and the market reassessed the US interest rate outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool shows the probability of one rate hike this year remains high at 42%, while the chance of a second hike has dropped to 28% from 34% a week ago as inflation expectations cool. A Wall Street Journal survey indicates the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, set to be released at 10 a.m. US Eastern Time (10 p.m. Beijing Time), is expected to rise from 44.8 to 49. (Jinshi Data APP) Reuters Poll: 78 of 102 economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% in 2026, compared with 72 of 102 economists who held this view in the early June survey. Artem Sakhbiev, FX strategist at BCA Research, said in a report that the recent rebound in the US dollar appears somewhat overextended and lacks the support needed to break out of the trading range of the past year. The Fed revised its interest rate projections upward at last week's meeting and explicitly focused on inflation. This led to a significant rise in inflation-adjusted real yields and eased concerns about political pressure for rate cuts, thereby boosting the dollar. However, this move now appears largely exhausted. The Fed is likely to hold rates steady, and the spread between short- and long-term yields could widen. (Jinshi Data APP) According to Nick Timiraos, known as the "Fed mouthpiece," sources say the search for a new president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has reached an impasse. The initial list of candidates failed to yield a final selection, forcing the bank to restart the selection process, which has now lasted seven months. On the surface, this was just a minor procedural hiccup. But at the same time, the independence of the US Fed is facing a severe test. Reserve Bank presidents are crucial to the Fed's independence: they participate in setting interest rates, and their appointment process is deliberately designed to avoid influence from Washington politics. (Jin10 Data App) Fed official Kashkari stated that signs of widespread inflation led him to expect one rate hike this year in the Fed economic forecasts released earlier this month. Rates are expected to remain unchanged in 2027. In a media interview on Friday, Kashkari said: "I am concerned about inflation, not just related to the Middle East situation, but signs of broader inflationary pressures in the economy." The Iran war pushed up oil prices, and prices rose across many categories. This has intensified concerns among some Fed officials that inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent, potentially requiring stronger action from the central bank. A report released earlier this week showed the May PCE annual rate came in at 4.1%, the largest increase since April 2023. Prices have exceeded the Fed's 2% target for over five years. In the dot plot forecasts released by the Fed last week, half of the officials who submitted dot plot projections expected at least one rate hike this year. (Jin10 Data App) The US goods trade deficit widened to its highest level in over a year in May, as exports fell and imports rose. Data released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed the goods trade deficit expanded 27.4% from the previous month to $105.8 billion, compared to an expected deficit of $85 billion. US goods exports fell 5.4% in May, dragged down mainly by declines in multiple categories, including shipments of industrial supplies. This category covers crude oil and petroleum products. Over the same period, imports rose 3.6%. (From Wall Street CN APP) In other currency news: As London experiences record-breaking heat, Bank of England officials are starting to worry that weather could become the next shock driving up inflation, just as the previous supply shock is fading. Climate scientists increasingly expect a strong El Niño event to form later this year into 2027, disrupting global weather patterns. Now, economists are also concerned this could trigger a new round of supply shocks, push up food inflation, and once again frustrate global central banks' efforts to fight inflation. (From Wall Street CN APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including the Eurozone June industrial sentiment index, Eurozone June economic sentiment index, US June Dallas Fed business activity index, Japan May unemployment rate, China June official manufacturing PMI, UK Q1 GDP annual rate final, UK Q1 current account, France June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Switzerland June KOF economic leading indicator, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany June CPI monthly rate preliminary, Canada April GDP monthly rate, US April FHFA house price index monthly rate, US April S&P/CS 20-City non-seasonally adjusted house price index annual rate, US June Chicago PMI, US May JOLTS job openings, US June Conference Board consumer confidence index, China June RatingDog manufacturing PMI, France June manufacturing PMI final, Germany June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June manufacturing PMI final, UK June manufacturing PMI final, Eurozone June CPI annual rate preliminary, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate preliminary, US June Challenger job cuts, US June ADP employment change, US June S&P Global manufacturing PMI final, US June ISM manufacturing PMI, US May construction spending monthly rate, Switzerland June CPI monthly rate, Eurozone May unemployment rate, US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, US June average hourly earnings annual rate, US June average hourly earnings monthly rate, US May factory orders monthly rate, China June RatingDog services PMI, France May industrial output monthly rate, France June services PMI final, Germany June services PMI final, Eurozone June services PMI final, UK June services PMI final, and other data. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to: 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivering a speech; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra through July 1; the 2026 Beijing Space Computing Conference taking place from June 29 to 30; ECB President Lagarde speaking in Sintra; the Reserve Bank of Australia releasing the minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; the US and Iran holding technical negotiations (to be confirmed); Fed Chairman Walsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem speaking at the ECB Forum; the ECB holding its Central Bank Forum in Sintra; ECB President Lagarde delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaking on the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy; and a new round of domestic refined oil product price adjustments opening in China. It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Market was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both Northbound and Southbound trading shut. On July 3, the US-NYSE was closed for the US Independence Day holiday; trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts ended early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday; trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts ended early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 4th due to the US Independence Day holiday. In crude oil: Both oil futures fell in overnight trading last Friday, with US oil dropping 2.34% and Brent oil dropping 2.52%. On a weekly basis, US oil futures recorded a three-week losing streak, falling 7.4% for the week; Brent oil futures also fell for a third straight week, dropping 8.06% for the week. Brent spot crude oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, and the near-month contracts exhibited a contango structure—where near-term prices are lower than those further out—for seven consecutive days, reflecting a temporary oversupply. Tariq Zahir, a managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, indicated that oil prices had "dropped too fast, too furiously," the ceasefire agreement remained fragile, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz was still fraught with variables, so fluctuations were expected to persist. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs' One-Delta business, pointed out that Iran had begun a show of force near the Strait of Hormuz, some cargo ships had altered their routes, and the inventory overhang in the Gulf region was gradually flowing into the market. He believed that while the probability of a significant near-term price rise in crude oil was limited, the basis for a further substantial drop from current prices was equally insufficient. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US natural gas drilling rig additions recorded the largest single-week increase in four years. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil drilling rigs operated by US energy enterprises reached 440 last week, marking a two-week consecutive increase, up from 433 the previous week. Active natural gas drilling rigs rose to 573, recording the largest gain since June 2022, compared with the prior figure of 563. (From Wall Street Cn APP) A report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that US refining capacity decreased by 263,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, a decline of 1.43%. This was primarily driven by the planned conversion of a major refinery in Houston and the closure of a refinery in the Los Angeles area due to market dynamics, which is known for strict environmental regulations. Marathon Petroleum, headquartered in Findlay, Ohio, maintained its position as the largest US refiner with a total refining capacity of 2.986 million bpd, accounting for 16.4% of the nation’s total capacity. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Furthermore, Iraq’s Ministry of Oil stated that OPEC has begun to gradually restore Iraq’s pre-war production quota, a move which will strengthen Iraq’s output capabilities and support the recovery of the oil sector. A high-level consensus has been reached within OPEC, fully taking into account Iraq’s past special circumstances and current actual needs. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Barclays said it has lowered its Brent crude oil price forecasts, cutting the 2026 estimate from $100 per barrel to $96, and the 2027 estimate from $88 to $85, citing the recovery of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded substantially, reaching about 80% of pre-war levels. However, this normalization process remains incomplete. The bank noted that Iran’s assertion of control through fee impositions and coordination mechanisms has created frictions and may potentially delay a full recovery. A temporary deal reached last week aimed at ending the US-Israeli war against Iran has allowed traffic on the Strait of Hormuz shipping route to resume. (From Wall Street Cn APP) Recommended Reading:

Japan-headquartered TOYO plans to build a 1.5GW HJT solar cell manufacturing facility in the Houston metropolitan area of Texas, with an estimated investment of around USD 357 million. Engineering, design and procurement work are already underway, with pilot production and project completion targeted within the next 20 months. The facility will be co-located with TOYO’s existing Houston module plant, which currently has 1GW of annual capacity and is planned to expand to 2GW in 2026. TOYO said HJT provides a platform for future perovskite integration, while domestic cell production will improve efficiency, lower logistics costs and support a FEOC-compliant US supply chain. SMM believes US trade scrutiny and manufacturing incentives are accelerating localized cell capacity deployment among PV manufacturers.

Toyo Solar announced the construction of a 1.5GW HJT cell production line in Texas, US. The project is located in the Houston metropolitan area and plans to achieve integration with an existing module plant, with an investment of approximately $357 million and an expected construction period of 20 months. Upon completion, it will be eligible for the US IRA Act Section 45X Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit (approximately $0.04/W), further boosting local PV manufacturing capacity.

SK On participated as a sponsor in CLEANPOWER 2026, hosted by the American Clean Power Association (ACP) in Houston from June 1 to 4, and held a customer invitation event near the exhibition venue. At the event, SK On unveiled its ESS brand “GRIDON” and its next-generation product, “GRIDON Gen2,” for the first time.

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs During Night Session, Spot Market Trading Remained Sluggish]

Houston-based SEG Solar announced plans for a new 4 GW solar module manufacturing facility in its home city. The $200 million investment will bring the company’s total U.S. annual production capacity to approximately 6 GW, with commercial operations slated for Q3 2026. The 500,000-square-foot plant is designed to integrate next-generation technologies like HJT. Notably, SEG has been validated as a non-FEOC entity, a crucial compliance factor for U.S. developers seeking federal tax credits. This expansion aligns with Texas’s broader surge, as the state’s module production is forecasted to exceed 15 GW in 2026.

Editor's Note: During the Labour Day holiday when the Chinese market was closed, global macro developments, commodity markets, and ex-China policy dynamics continued to evolve, with multiple external factors potentially impacting post-holiday market performance. To help market participants accurately grasp market trends and conduct rational market analysis, SMM has systematically compiled key macro developments and major industry news during the holiday, along with a summary of this week's critical data and event periods, for industry reference. Internationally, geopolitical developments, energy landscape, ex-China monetary policy, and trade policy all saw significant changes. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, intermittently disrupting global energy markets and briefly driving international oil prices into a rapid short-term rise. Major global central bank policies continued to diverge. The US Fed released its latest policy signal — New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that if inflation continues to pull back toward the 2% policy target, the US Fed will cut interest rates at an appropriate time. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, officially reversing its previous accommodative monetary policy cycle, further widening the divergence in global liquidity landscape. On the energy export front, according to Bloomberg on May 4, US crude oil exports continued to climb over the past nine weeks, with cumulative exports exceeding 250 million barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia to reclaim the position of the world's largest crude oil exporter. Global trade and foreign exchange markets also saw notable shifts. In trade, according to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that due to the EU's failure to fulfill a previously agreed trade deal, the US would impose additional tariffs on automobiles and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25% — subsequent changes in the global trade landscape warrant continued attention. In the foreign exchange market, Japan intervened in the currency market three times between April 30 and May 4. A relevant official from Japan's Ministry of Finance simultaneously interpreted related IMF rules, explicitly classifying the three-day intervention operations as a single operation, with a clear intent to stabilize the yen exchange rate. On industrial policy, Indonesia introduced resource export control measures, planning to levy export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel products, which may impact global energy and non-ferrous metal supply chains, pricing systems, and related commodity markets. This week, major economic data in and outside China will be released in quick succession. Highly watched data including China's foreign exchange reserves, gold reserves data, China's import and export data (TBD), and US April non-farm payrolls data will be published sequentially. Meanwhile, SMM will comprehensively review price movements across metal categories during the holiday, and combining the latest variables in and outside China, is expected to publish post-holiday market trend outlooks to provide professional reference for industry trading, production, and strategic planning. Stay tuned. ※Holiday Macro News ►Domestic [Baiyun Airport Port Sees Record-High Canton Fair Foreign Arrivals Exceeding 540,000] On the last day of the Labour Day holiday, coinciding with the closing of the 139th Canton Fair, reporters learned from the Baiyun Border Inspection Station that since the opening of this Canton Fair, as of 0:00 on May 5, Baiyun Airport port handled over 1.14 million inbound and outbound passengers, up 14.5% YoY. Foreign business travelers became the core driver of port passenger flow growth, with inbound and outbound foreigners exceeding 540,000, up 20.8% YoY, setting a new historical record for port passenger flow during the same Canton Fair period. (CCTV News) [National Railways Carried Over 100 Million Passengers Cumulatively During Labour Day Holiday] According to China State Railway Group Co., Ltd., national railways carried 20.383 million passengers on May 4. Since the launch of Labour Day holiday transport on April 29, national railways have cumulatively carried 117 million passengers, with transport operations safe, stable, and orderly. On May 5, return passenger flows continue to rise, with national railways expected to carry 23 million passengers and 2,225 additional passenger trains planned. (CCTV News) [China Bulk Commodity Price Index at 132.1 Points in April, Up 20.2% YoY] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the April China Bulk Commodity Price Index on May 5. The index stood at 132.1 points in April, up 1.7% MoM and up 20.2% YoY. Among the 50 bulk commodities under key monitoring by the federation, 38 saw MoM price increases in April. Among them, paraxylene, methanol, and polypropylene led the gains, up 22.4%, 14.5%, and 11.8% MoM respectively. ►Overseas [US Illegal Tariff Refunds Delayed by One Day, Earliest Distribution Starting May 12] US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stated that the first batch of electronic refunds for tariffs ruled illegal by the US Supreme Court is expected to begin distribution no earlier than May 12. The US Court of International Trade had previously expected refunds to start on May 11, but this has been delayed by one day for undisclosed reasons. (CCTV News) [Senior Iranian Commander: Iran Is Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, US Cannot Reverse the Current Situation] Senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Yadollah Javani confirmed in an interview on May 4 that Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz, that any passing vessel must obtain Iranian permission to ensure safe passage, and that hostile forces' ships attempting forced transit will be dealt with resolutely. Yadollah Javani dismissed US President Trump's claim of "clearing" the strait's shipping lanes for humanitarian reasons as a lie, stating that Iran would prevail if the confrontation escalated. He said the US could never restore the situation to before February 28, nor reverse the current state of affairs. (CCTV News) [Trump refuses to confirm whether US-Iran ceasefire agreement remains in effect] On May 4, US President Trump refused to clarify whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran remained in effect during an interview. When asked whether the ceasefire had ended and whether military strikes could resume, Trump said: "I can't tell you that. If I answered, you'd say this guy isn't smart enough to be president." Earlier that day, Trump warned in an interview that if Iran attempted to attack US ships in the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, they "will be totally destroyed." However, he subsequently stated that from a military standpoint, the conflict with Iran was "essentially over." (CCTV) [Qatar condemns attack on UAE oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz] Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement on the 4th, strongly condemning a drone attack on an oil tanker operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company of the UAE while passing through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a serious violation of international law and the principle of freedom of navigation. The statement said Qatar firmly opposes using the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure tool, called for the unconditional reopening of the strait, and emphasized that freedom of navigation through this vital waterway is an established principle that cannot be compromised. The statement noted that the continued closure of the strait would jeopardize the vital interests of countries in the region. Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its support for all measures taken by the UAE to protect its assets. (Xinhua) [US Fed "No. 3" speaks: Interest rate cuts will eventually come if inflation pulls back, but timing has been forced to delay] New York Fed President Williams publicly stated on Monday that as long as inflation pulls back toward the US Fed's 2% target as expected, the US Fed will eventually need to cut interest rates . However, due to inflation running higher than expectations this year, the timing of interest rate cuts has been forced to delay, though the overall policy direction has not fundamentally changed. Williams told reporters after delivering a speech in New York on Monday: "As inflation moves lower, we will eventually need to cut interest rates at some point to match fundamentals. Inflation has been higher than previously expected this year, and in my view, this only delays the timing of rate cuts and does not change the overall policy logic." Last week, the US Fed decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, but internal policy disagreements became prominent, with three officials opposing the easing bias implied in the meeting statement, preferring more neutral language to release signals that rates could move either up or down going forward. Regarding the controversial wording, Williams was clear in his stance: he fully endorsed the current statement's language, believing that based on day-to-day economic data, there was no sufficient reason to support a rate hike in the short term. [IMF Chief Warns: Prolonged Middle East Conflict Could Trigger More Severe Inflation and Growth Shocks] The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that inflation has begun to intensify, and if the Middle East war continues into 2027 with oil prices rising to around $125 per barrel, the global economy could face a "worse scenario." IMF Managing Director Georgieva stated that the continuation of the war means the organization's previous assumption of only a mild slowdown in global economic growth and only a slight edge up in prices no longer holds. Therefore, the "adverse scenario" set by the IMF has effectively begun to materialize. Speaking at a conference hosted by the Milken Institute, Georgieva noted that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored for now and financial conditions have not yet tightened, but this could change if the war persists. [RBA Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points as Expected — Entering Wait-and-See Mode After "Triple Hike"?] The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its third consecutive rate hike on Tuesday, raising the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing last year's monetary easing cycle. The move underscored the central bank's determination to suppress stubborn inflation, making it an outlier among major global central banks — decisively embarking on a new tightening cycle while the US-Iran conflict fueled uncertainty and many central banks chose to stand pat. The RBA's nine-member policy committee approved the rate hike with a vote of 8 in favor and 1 against . RBA Governor Michele Bullock will hold a press conference at 1:30 PM Beijing time to explain the policy decision. The committee emphasized in its statement: "After three rate hikes, monetary policy now has sufficient room to respond to changing conditions , and the committee will focus on its dual mandate of price stability and full employment, taking all necessary measures to achieve its objectives." [Japan Intervened to Boost Yen on "3 Consecutive Days" During Holiday, Claims It "Counts as 1" Under IMF Rule of "Maximum 3 Interventions Within 6 Months"] Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on three consecutive days during Golden Week, but Japanese officials promptly cited IMF rules stating that the three actions "count as one" — a statement reflecting the government's careful calculation of intervention frequency. A Ministry of Finance official told reporters on May 5 that under relevant IMF regulations, foreign exchange market interventions over three consecutive business days are considered a "single action."The official made the above remarks while accompanying Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama at an international conference held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. By this calculation, the three interventions on April 30, May 2 (Friday), and May 4 (Monday) were counted as one combined action. The official added that even when Japan was on public holiday, interventions could still be counted as long as global markets were open; May 4 was therefore recognized as the last of three consecutive business days starting from April 30. This round of intervention began on April 30, triggered when USD/JPY broke above 160.72. According to Bloomberg's analysis, authorities deployed approximately $34.5 billion that day to support the yen, and the exchange rate rebounded to around 155. However, the effectiveness of the subsequent two interventions diminished notably—the yen briefly strengthened after each intervention before pulling back again. The two subsequent interventions reportedly cost a combined approximately $20 billion. In total, the three interventions in this round are estimated to have exceeded $54 billion in scale. ※Industry News and Corporate Developments [Indonesia Plans to Impose Export and Windfall Taxes on Coal and Nickel to Ease Subsidy Pressure] Indonesia plans to impose export taxes and windfall taxes on coal and nickel as one of the measures to offset the growing subsidy costs in the national budget. Indonesia's Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the proposed measures are still under discussion with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. "Discussions with the Energy Ministry are ongoing, but what is clear is that the related revenue will be sufficient to help bridge the subsidy gap." Purbaya noted that coal and nickel exports had not previously been subject to export taxes, creating regulatory loopholes that could foster under-invoicing and smuggling, while also limiting customs authorities' ability to inspect goods before shipment. The implementation of export taxes is expected to grant the Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DJBC) greater authority to conduct inspections before goods are exported, thereby helping to close tax loopholes and prevent fiscal leakage. (Wallstreetcn) [250 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Shipped Outside China, US Inventory Falls for Four Consecutive Weeks—How Long Can the World's "Last Supplier" Hold Out?] Over the past nine weeks, a large number of tankers sailed intensively toward the US, loading up along the coast of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico before heading to destinations such as Japan, Thailand, and even Australia. During this period, the US cumulatively exported over 250 million barrels of crude oil outside China, once again surpassing Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil exporter. Against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz nearing shutdown and Middle Eastern supply disruptions, the US has effectively assumed the role of a critical global energy source. However, this rapid surge in export volume also exposed potential risks. US domestic inventory has been declining notably, with total crude oil and refined product reserves falling for four consecutive weeks and dropping below historical averages, while the production side also faced pressure to maintain output. (Jin Shi Data) [Trump: US Is Taking "Hundreds of Millions of Barrels of Oil" from Venezuela] On May 4, US President Trump spoke at a small business summit on the topic of energy cooperation with Venezuela. Trump stated that the US currently has a "good relationship" with Venezuela and said related actions were "going well." He noted that major energy enterprises had begun entering Venezuela to develop resources. On energy cooperation, Trump said the US was obtaining "hundreds of millions of barrels of oil" from Venezuela and shipping them to US regions including Houston for refining, describing the bilateral relationship as "almost like a partnership." He also emphasized that US oil and natural gas production had reached record highs. (Wallstreetcn) [Trump: Will Impose 25% Tariff on EU Cars and Trucks Exported to the US Next Week] According to CCTV News, on May 1 local time, US President Trump stated that because the EU had not fulfilled the trade agreement already reached between the two sides, the US would impose additional tariffs on cars and trucks imported from the EU next week, raising the rate to 25%. Trump said that if relevant enterprises set up factories and produced in the US, they could be exempt from tariffs. [Hainan LNG Phase II Project Achieved Major Milestone, Expected to Be Fully Completed by 2027] According to PipeChina, a major oil and gas infrastructure project in China — the Hainan LNG Phase II Project — completed the 821-mt dome air-raising operation for Tank No. 3, marking a major milestone for the project. The Hainan LNG receiving terminal Phase I project has construction completed and commissioned 2 LNG storage tanks of 160,000 m³ each, while the Phase II project is constructing 3 new prestressed concrete full-containment LNG storage tanks of 220,000 m³ each. Currently, the overall progress of the Phase II project is approaching 50%, and it is expected to be fully completed by 2027. Once completed, it will add 400 million m³ of gas storage capacity, doubling the peak shaving capacity, and significantly enhancing emergency peak shaving and secure supply capabilities for the entire Hainan Island and the South China coastal region. (CCTV News) [Dongyang Guangming: Subsidiary Signs Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with Estimated Total Value of 16 Billion to 19 Billion Yuan] Dongyang Guangming announced that its subsidiary Dongguan Dongyang Guang Cloud Computing Technology Co., Ltd. signed a Computing Power Service Procurement Framework Contract with a certain Enterprise A, with an estimated total contract value ranging from 16 billion yuan to 19 billion yuan (tax inclusive). The contract term is 60 months after order acceptance, with service fees paid monthly. This cooperation aims to deepen the company's presence in AI computing power and high performance server supporting services, but faces multiple uncertainties including policy and regulatory risks, performance capability, and funding, with uncertain impact on the company's future performance. ※Weekly Macro Preview May 6 Data to be released include China's April RatingDog Services PMI, France's March industrial output MoM, France's April Services PMI final, Germany's April Services PMI final, Eurozone April Services PMI final, UK April Services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also notable: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. May 7 Data to be released include France's March trade balance, Switzerland's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, US April Challenger enterprise layoffs, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, and China's April foreign exchange reserves. Also notable: 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. May 8 Data to be released include Germany's March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's March seasonally adjusted trade balance, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, Switzerland's April consumer confidence index, Canada's April employment, US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May 1-year inflation expectations preliminary, US May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary, and US March wholesale sales MoM. Also notable: 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will speak; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; China's refined oil products will enter a new price adjustment window. May 9 Data to be released include China's April trade balance in US dollar terms (TBD) and China's April trade balance (TBD). Also notable: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Daly will participate in a panel discussion at the Hoover Institution's 2026 Monetary Policy Conference.

On April 2, 2026, the White House ushered US steel trade policy into "Version 2.0." This strategic shift goes beyond simple tariff hikes. It uses full-value taxation and melt-and-pour traceability to block low-end imported raw materials, while applying structural tariff reductions to finished products to ease manufacturing inflation. Ultimately, this two-pronged approach aims to forcibly bring the global supply chain back to domestic US steel production.

[ION Minerals Expands Its Lithium Resources Footprint in Texas and Saskatchewan] ION Minerals said it had achieved a major expansion of its diversified lithium resources portfolio in the US and Canada. In a late-March news release, the Houston-based company said the expanded land footprint was achieved through prudent acquisitions, targeted leasing, and focused geological assessments. ION now controls more than 280,000 acres across three project areas, further cementing its position as a leading developer of critical lithium resources for the North American battery supply chain. Smackover is a subsurface geological formation stretching from Florida to Texas and is rich in lithium brine. Source: https://www.mining.com/ [EnergyX's "Lone Star" Project Revolutionizes Domestic Lithium Production in the US] EnergyX's groundbreaking "Lone Star" project marked a major milestone in the US pursuit of critical minerals independence through advanced direct lithium extraction technology. This pioneering facility is the first commercial-scale direct lithium extraction plant to enter operation in the US, addressing long-standing supply chain vulnerabilities while establishing an operational framework for domestic battery-grade lithium production. As demand for critical minerals accelerates amid the global energy transition, the project demonstrates how innovative extraction technologies can transform regional resources into strategic assets. Direct lithium extraction differs fundamentally from traditional mining methods, targeting subsurface brine rather than hard-rock deposits or surface evaporation systems. EnergyX's "Lone Star" project demonstrated this approach through its GET-Lit™ technology, which uses advanced filtration and chemical separation processes to treat brine from the Smackover formation. Source: https://discoveryalert.com.au/ [University of Surrey Develops a Lithium-Ion Battery Anode to Enhance Energy Storage] Researchers at the University of Surrey's Advanced Technology Institute (ATI) developed a new-type battery design that could significantly extend EV driving range. In a study published in ACS Applied Energy Materials, the researchers introduced a lithium-ion battery anode. The anode achieved one of the highest energy storage capacities reported to date in a silicon-carbon nanotube system, while remaining stable after hundreds of charge cycles. Lithium-ion batteries power a wide range of devices in modern technology. Graphite is the most commonly used anode material, offering high stability but limited energy storage capacity. By contrast, silicon has a much higher capacity, but it expands during charging, causing cracking and performance degradation over time. Source: https://www.automotivepowertraintechnologyinternational.com/

Rio Tinto expects Resolution Copper mine to open by mid-2030s, may export some concentrate HOUSTON, March 24 (Reuters) – Rio Tinto aims to bring its Resolution Copper project in Arizona online by the mid-2030s, but may need to export some copper concentrate due to challenging economics for smelting in the U.S., a senior executive said on Tuesday. The mining giant recently gained control of key acreage for the project after a lengthy court battle.