The latest data from the General Administration of Customs shows that in June 2026, China's air conditioner exports reached 5.11 million units, up 11.5% YoY; cumulative exports from January to June totaled 39.16 million units, down 4.6% YoY.

"The store sold 86 pre-owned homes in H1, a YoY growth of 43%. High-quality 'good homes' are highly favoured by clients," Li Songqiang, commercial district manager of the Beijing Lianjia Aozhou Kangdu store, told a China Securities Journal reporter. As July began, the recovery in Beijing and Shenzhen's housing markets continued to consolidate. A reporter visited several real estate agency stores and found that trading volumes and average transaction prices in both the new and pre-owned housing markets had improved simultaneously, client inquiries and on-site viewings remained high, and the market recovery momentum was becoming increasingly clear. Experts believe that the current market still has strong resilience and self-adjustment capability, and the subsequent recovery will be mainly characterized by structural improvement driven by high-quality supply.

SMM Jul 16: Metal market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market generally declined. SHFE copper slipped 0.22%, SHFE aluminum edged down. SHFE lead rose 0.1%, SHFE zinc fell 0.72%. SHFE tin dropped 1.34%. SHFE nickel surged 2.94%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.26%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.52%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract slid 2.36%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up 0.18%. The most-traded polysilicon futures dropped 0.48%. Ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar and hot-rolled coil edged up. Stainless steel rose 1.13%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.43%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:43, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.31%, LME aluminum added 0.44%, LME lead advanced 0.68%. LME zinc rose 0.55%, LME tin climbed 0.46%. LME nickel jumped 2.47%. Precious metals, as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.33%, COMEX silver dipped 0.08%. In the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold dropped 0.82%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract tumbled 3.22%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 1.95%, and the most-traded palladium futures gained 0.29%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container shipping futures contract fell 0.79% to 2,573.5 points. As of 11:43 on July 16, midday futures market snapshot: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 40 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 104,180 yuan/mt, down 1,025 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,080 yuan/mt, down 1,015 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories fell for two consecutive days, mainly due to reduced arrivals... Macro Front On the domestic front: [China's power and ESS battery sales up 49.1% YoY in June] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released June 2026 power battery data, showing that in June, China's power and ESS battery sales were 196.0 GWh, up 7.6% MoM and up 49.1% YoY. Power battery sales were 133.4 GWh, accounting for 68.1% of total sales, up 5.0% MoM and up 41.8% YoY; ESS battery sales were 62.6 GWh, accounting for 31.9% of total sales, up 13.4% MoM and up 67.5% YoY. January-June, China's cumulative sales of power and ESS batteries reached 979.4 GWh, up 48.6% YoY. Power battery sales totaled 661.3 GWh, accounting for 67.5% of total sales, up 36.2% YoY; ESS battery sales totaled 318.1 GWh, accounting for 32.5% of total sales, up 83.4% YoY. (Jin10 Data App) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Achieve Net Injection of 616 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 626 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. With 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo maturing today, the day's net injection stood at 616 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.02% to 100.5. During his appearance before a Senate hearing, Fed Chairman Warsh frequently expressed dissatisfaction with inflation, stating: "Recent inflation data does not perfectly reflect underlying inflation conditions. The labour market looks quite good, but the inflation side is less optimistic. I am not satisfied with any inflation metric. We will review our tools, including the balance sheet and interest rates, to see if adjustments are needed to address inflation." The Fed's Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity expanded at a slight to mild pace in 11 of the 12 Fed districts, with the overall pace roughly on par with the prior period. The report noted that factors such as high oil prices dampened some consumption, with consumers cutting back on discretionary spending and shifting to cheaper goods. Tourism rebounded, with World Cup-related traffic providing a boost for some regions. Manufacturing maintained mild growth, with orders rising in data centers, machinery, and national defense. Construction and real estate activity improved modestly, with data center construction a highlight. Drilling activity in the energy sector increased, financial conditions were generally stable, and commercial and consumer loan volumes rose modestly. However, agriculture was affected by lower commodity prices, rising costs, and tighter credit. Most surveyed contacts expect the economy to continue expanding in the coming months, though significant uncertainty remains over the fuel cost outlook. Fed Governor Cooke stated on Wednesday that it is prudent to wait for inflation to slow for some time, but she is prepared to act if inflation does not slow soon. Cooke noted: "I believe we should give more time from now on to observe how inflation develops. However, looking ahead, I still see risks as primarily concentrated on the upside for inflation, driven by the investment boom in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and price pressures from the Iran war.""If we do not see signs of slowing inflation soon, I am prepared to act. I am fully committed to achieving our inflation target—that commitment is unwavering." Cook contrasted the current situation with a year ago, when inflation was well above the Fed's 2% target and the labor market appeared stable but ran the risk of both labor market and inflation slowdowns. "I note that the balance of risks has shifted markedly compared to about a year ago, and now inflation risks outweigh employment risks," she said. According to the CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in July is 88.8%, with an 11.2% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike. For September, the odds of rates staying on hold stand at 51.2%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 44% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 4.7%. (Jin10 Data App) Other Currencies: On July 16, the Bank of Korea announced it would raise the 7-day repo rate from 2.50% to 2.75%, with all seven monetary policy board members voting unanimously for the 25-basis-point hike. This is the first rate hike by the Bank of Korea since January 2023 and marks the start of a new tightening cycle. The move was fully within market expectations. All economists surveyed by Bloomberg and all but one of the 37 economists polled by Reuters had predicted a July hike. A Korea Financial Investment Association poll of 100 fixed-income experts showed 66% forecast a rate increase this month. The rise from 2.50% to 2.75% appeared modest, but the signaling effect far outweighs the number itself. The Bank of Korea had cut rates four times since October 2024, reducing them by a cumulative 100 basis points, then held the benchmark rate steady for eight consecutive meetings. This rate hike may signal the formal end of the easing cycle. (Wall Street CN) Data: Data due today include US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US monthly retail sales for June, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for July, the NAHB housing market index for July, US business inventories for May, the US pending home sales index for June, UK three-month GDP growth for May, UK manufacturing output for May, the UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for May, and UK industrial production for May. Additionally, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its second regular press conference of July. Fed Governor Cook Lisa will speak on the economic outlook. US Vice President Vance will deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions. US President Trump will give a speech. 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. TSMC will hold its 2026 Q2 earnings conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices in both benchmarks fell, with WTI down 0.23% and Brent down 0.52%. Concerns over geopolitical conflicts persisted, keeping oil prices moving sideways. US President Trump said oil prices would fluctuate for some time. For the week ended July 10, US EIA crude oil inventories dropped 1.692 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 2.594 million barrel decline and a prior build of 2.998 million barrels. EIA gasoline inventories fell 1.533 million barrels, versus expectations for a 760,000 barrel decline and a prior drop of 1.904 million barrels. (Jin10 Data) A research report from Tianfeng Securities noted that the international crude oil market went through a "roller coaster" ride dominated by geopolitical risks in H1, with international oil prices surging to near $120/barrel before pulling back quickly. Recently, although tensions flared up again in the Strait of Hormuz, overall risks remain manageable. The core pricing logic for the crude market is shifting from "extreme geopolitical risks" to a three-way game among "geopolitical tail risk, political intervention, and fundamental equilibrium." In H2, oil prices are likely to see wild swings with resistance on the upside and support on the downside, with a general trend of "strength first, then weakness." The Brent price center is expected to trade within the $70/bbl–$75/bbl range. (Jin10 Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM July 16 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally fell. Only LME nickel rose, up 0.48%. SHFE tin led the decline with a 2.04% drop. LME tin and SHFE zinc both fell over 1%, with LME tin down 1.33% and SHFE zinc down 1.03%. Gains in other metals were all within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.18%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.28%. Overnight in the ferrous metals sector, iron ore closed flat at 759.5 yuan/mt. Rebar, HRC, and stainless steel all saw slight fluctuations in gains. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.11%, while coke rose 0.63%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.07%, while COMEX silver fell 1.7%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 0.03%, while SHFE silver fell 1.43%. As of 6:49 a.m. on July 16, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): H1 GDP Up 4.7% YoY, National Economy Operating Within a Reasonable Range, New Momentum Growing Rapidly] NBS data showed that preliminary estimates indicate H1 GDP reached 69,570.4 billion yuan, up 4.7% YoY based on constant prices. By industry, primary industry added value was 3,152.2 billion yuan, up 3.7% YoY; secondary industry added value was 25,047.3 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; and tertiary industry added value was 41,370.9 billion yuan, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of quarters, Q1 GDP rose 5.0% YoY, while Q2 grew 4.3% YoY. On a QoQ basis, Q2 GDP increased 0.9%. Overall, the national economy operated within a reasonable range in H1, with new quality productive forces being cultivated and strengthened, and high-quality development progressing with new improvements. However, we must also note that external uncertainties and destabilizing factors remain abundant, and the contradiction between strong domestic supply and weak demand is still pronounced; the foundation for economic improvement needs to be further consolidated. In the next stage, we will adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, intensifying counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, continuously expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, enhancing growth drivers while revitalizing existing resources, focusing on building a strong domestic market, accelerating the cultivation of new growth momentum, and intensifying efforts to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, so as to promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. [PBoC: H1 Aggregate Social Financing Increased by 20.84 Trillion, New Loans 10.72 Trillion, June M2 Up 8% YoY] Preliminary PBoC statistics show that the outstanding stock of aggregate social financing at end-June 2026 was 462.06 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing in H1 was 20.84 trillion yuan, up 7.4% YoY. In H1, RMB loans increased by 10.72 trillion yuan. At end-June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 356.71 trillion yuan, up 8% YoY. That of narrow money (M1) was 118.48 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 14.74 trillion yuan, up 11.8% YoY. In H1, net cash injection was 641.7 billion yuan. On the dollar front: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.42% to 100.51, recording a two-session losing streak. The US Fed's latest Beige Book showed that from late May through June, US economic activity improved mildly, with 11 of the 12 Fed districts achieving growth. Inflation was mild overall, but forecasts for the inflation outlook varied across districts, and uncertainty over energy prices was the biggest variable affecting the outlook. The labour market was solid, with employment expanding slightly, but a shortage of skilled workers pushed up wages. (Wall Street Insights) Buffett Warren said that the new Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin is the "right person" for the position. "I think he will do his best to fulfil the task entrusted to him, which is to achieve 2% inflation and maintain full employment." "He cannot be perfect, just as I know I cannot be perfect in managing other people's money and earning excess returns." "He has the country's interests at heart, and I believe many Fed officials do as well. That does not mean their decisions are always perfect, but sometimes those decisions are indeed extremely difficult." (CNBC) President Trump Donald stated that pausing rate action would be better than raising rates for the Fed. He reiterated his desire for (policy) rates to fall, saying, "we should have the lowest interest rates in the world." "I respect Fed Chairman Warsh." Fed Governor Cook Lisa stated that as artificial intelligence (AI) buildouts continue and recent supply shocks push up prices, the risk of persistently high inflation outweighs the risk of a weakening labour market. In a speech prepared for an event in Washington on Wednesday, Cook Lisa said, "If we do not soon see signs that inflation continues to pull back, I am prepared to act. I am firmly committed to achieving the inflation target, and this commitment will not waver." (from the Wall Street Insights APP) According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 88.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike was 11.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in September was 51.2%, that of a cumulative 25bp hike was 44%, and that of a cumulative 50bp hike was 4.7%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, data to be released include the US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, US June retail sales MoM, US July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, US July NAHB housing market index, US May business inventories MoM, US June pending home sales index MoM, as well as UK May three-month GDP MoM, UK May manufacturing output MoM, UK May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK May industrial production MoM, etc. Furthermore, the Ministry of Commerce held its second regular press conference of July, US Fed Governor Lisa Cook spoke on the economic outlook, US Vice President Vance delivered remarks, the US Fed released its Beige Book on economic conditions, US President Trump delivered a speech, 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem gave a speech, and TSMC held its Q2 2026 earnings call. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose, with WTI up 1.13% and Brent up 0.39%, both recording a third consecutive session of gains as the market continued to monitor US-Iran developments. Goldman Sachs: If the prolonged disruption to Gulf exports persists and delays the production rebound, Brent crude prices could break above $110 per barrel in Q4 2026. (Jin10 Data) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventories fell by 1.69 million barrels last week. Bloomberg users had expected a draw of 2 million barrels, analysts had forecast a decline of 1.962 million barrels, following an increase of 2.998 million barrels the prior week. Gasoline inventories on the US Gulf Coast hit their lowest level since September 2017. Fuel stockpile supply fell to its lowest since May 2025. (From Wall Street CN App) As the US reinstated its maritime blockade against Iran, two tankers carrying Iranian crude that appeared to be bound for Pakistan have turned back. Vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show the Rani and Amil, carrying a combined 1 million barrels of crude, briefly signaled Karachi as their destination before turning around on Wednesday. The two tankers were already outside the Persian Gulf when the US reimposed the maritime blockade on Iranian shipping. US Central Command said Wednesday that it had diverted two merchant vessels attempting to breach the blockade since the operation resumed, without naming the ships. According to data intelligence firm Kpler, Pakistan has not imported Iranian crude for at least a decade due to US sanctions risk. One possibility is that the two tankers selected Karachi as a waypoint for waiting or transferring cargo to other vessels. Both are under US sanctions and belong to Iran's "shadow fleet" used to ship oil. (Jin10 Data)

SMM, July 13 – Metals Market: In overnight trading last Friday, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME aluminum led the declines with a 2.07% drop, while SHFE nickel led the gains with a 0.78% rise. The remaining metals all had changes within 1%. The main alumina contract fell 0.4%, and the main cast aluminum contract fell 0.78%. In overnight trading last Friday, ferrous metals fell except for stainless steel and iron ore. Stainless steel rose 0.03%, and iron ore rose 0.27%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both edged down. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 1.03%, and coke fell 1.15%. In overnight trading last Friday, for precious metals, COMEX gold fell 0.29%, with a weekly edge up of 0.08%. COMEX silver fell 0.74%, with a weekly decline of 1.25%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.56%, with a weekly decline of 0.83%, and SHFE silver fell 0.58%, with a weekly decline of 2.63%. HSBC lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations of a hawkish turn in Fed monetary policy and a stronger US dollar that continues to pressure gold prices. The bank cut its 2026 average price forecast from $4,864 per ounce to $4,560, and its 2027 forecast from $5,000 to $4,925. HSBC expects gold prices to fluctuate in a range of $3,800 to $4,700 for the rest of 2026, ending the year near $4,750. (Wall Street CN) As of 7:17 on July 11, last Friday’s overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestically: [State Council Executive Meeting: Promote the Scaled Development of Emerging Pillar Industries Across the Entire Chain, Strengthen Basic Research and Key Software and Hardware Breakthroughs] According to CCTV, Li Qiang chaired a State Council executive meeting that studied work related to cultivating emerging pillar industries. The meeting pointed out the need to promote the scaled development of emerging pillar industries across the entire chain, strengthen basic research and breakthroughs in key software and hardware, and accelerate technological iteration and ecosystem improvement. It also highlighted the need to optimize regulatory models and guide localities to develop according to their own conditions and in differentiated ways. (Jinshi Data APP) [Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Implement Temporary Export Ban Management on Helium] The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement, stating that in accordance with relevant provisions of the Foreign Trade Law of the People’s Republic of China, they have decided to implement temporary export ban management on helium (Customs commodity code: 2804290010). This announcement takes effect from the date of issuance, and subsequent adjustments will be announced separately. (Jinshi Data APP) [National Electricity Load Hits a Record High of 1.518 Billion kW] Since the beginning of this year, the national economy has continued to develop towards new and better directions, with end-user electrification levels steadily rising. Combined with recent high temperatures in many parts of the country, electricity loads have rapidly climbed. On July 10, China’s nationwide electricity load hit a record high for the first time this year, peaking at 1.518 billion kW, an increase of 10 million kW from the historical extreme. Since the start of summer, the south China regional power grid and multiple provincial grids, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Ningxia, Gansu, Fujian and Shaanxi, have set new record highs in electricity load more than 20 times cumulatively. The repeated record highs in electricity demand this year were driven primarily by three factors: First, steady growth in industrial electricity consumption. High-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing are booming, and electricity use by emerging industries such as NEVs, energy storage and computing equipment continues to expand. Second, relatively rapid growth in service sector electricity consumption. Since the beginning of this year, the YoY growth rate of electricity consumption in the battery swapping and charging service industry and the internet data service industry has both exceeded 40%. Third, high temperatures have pushed up electricity loads. As residents’ living standards continue to improve, the proportion of air-conditioning cooling load in the national total is approaching 30%, and in some provinces it exceeds 40%. (National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)) [National Energy Administration: The share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point per annum by 2028] The National Energy Administration issued the “Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026–2028).” The plan proposes that, by 2028, the share of non-fossil energy consumption will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point per annum; the coal consumption rate of coal-fired power units will be reasonably controlled, and the proportion of coal-fired capacity achieving the current energy efficiency benchmark level will strive to increase by 15 percentage points; a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining areas and oil regions will be established; support will be given to establishing a number of zero-carbon industrial parks, with significant progress made in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries and continuously improved levels of green energy use. The plan proposes vigorously promoting energy saving and carbon reduction in thermal power. It will steadily and orderly shut down a batch of coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW class and below where conditions permit, while encouraging the construction of replacement units meeting next-generation coal power standards; promote the implementation of a number of supercritical/ultra-supercritical cross-generational upgrades and retrofits for 600,000 kW class coal-fired units. Support will be given to implementing zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) retrofit construction for units where conditions allow, with carbon emission levels per kWh after retrofitting expected to be reduced by about 10%. It will implement a batch of coal power, gas power and new energy integration projects, supporting coal power and new energy in achieving integrated carbon reduction effects through methods such as coupled peak shaving and peak supply via thermal storage and energy storage, and integrated collection and transmission. (Jin10 Data App) US dollar side: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 100.96, posting a weekly gain of 0.05%. The Fed’s semi-annual report showed that in 2026, US economic activity maintained robust expansion overall, primarily driven by high-tech investment and government spending. Factory output grew strongly due to AI-related data center investments, and production capacity continued to improve. However, the housing market stalled, and the external economy was weighed down by the Middle East conflict and tariffs, resulting in sluggish growth. The labour market was generally stable, with both wages and productivity increasing, but slowing immigration led to a decline in labour supply, while small businesses and households still faced relatively tight credit conditions. Inflation remained elevated and firmed further in spring, with asset prices above historical norms. The financial system was resilient overall, with ample bank reserves, and the private credit market continued to function normally despite some redemption pressures. Long-term inflation expectations remained well anchored near the 2% target, although the uncertainty brought by the Iran conflict was a primary risk. (Jin10 Data App) The report noted that the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained about twice the 2% target as of this May. This was also the first monetary policy report released since the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office. Warsh will testify before the House and Senate committees on Tuesday and Wednesday this week respectively, undergoing routine mid-year review on monetary policy. (Wall Street CN) According to CME “Fed Watch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 33.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through September is 31.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 18.0%. (Jin10 Data App) Other currencies: According to a Reuters report, three sources familiar with the Bank of Japan’s thinking said the BOJ plans to keep interest rates unchanged in July but will maintain its policy guidance, committing to continue pushing ahead with the rate hike process. One source said, “With oil prices falling, downside risks to the economy have diminished somewhat. But the high cost of past imports will continue to exert upward pressure on prices.” Two other sources expressed similar views. They also stated that the BOJ may raise its FY2026 economic growth forecast in its July quarterly report and will continue to watch for inflation overshoot risks, as cost increases from a weak yen and strong AI demand partially offset the impact of falling oil prices. (Jin10 Data App) ING economists Marieke Blom and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar said in a report that if the eurozone savings rate falls to pre-pandemic levels, it could unlock goods and services demand worth approximately 1% of GDP. In Q1 of this year, household savings stood at 14.3% of disposable income, higher than the pre-pandemic five-year average of 12.5%. In the US, the savings rate in the last quarter of 2025 was 10.2%, a level which could add nearly 2% to eurozone GDP. Consumption is expected to remain weak as higher mortgage rates, slowing credit growth and precautionary savings weigh on spending. However, they said a shift from bank deposits to investments could lay the foundation for stronger spending and domestic demand in the coming years. (Jin10 Data App) On the macro front: This week, China will release data including June trade balance in US dollar terms, June trade balance, June YoY exports and imports, Q2 GDP YoY, June total retail sales YoY, June industrial added value above designated size YoY, June nationwide electricity consumption YoY, and June nationwide electricity consumption. The US will release data including June unadjusted CPI YoY, June seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, June seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, June unadjusted core CPI YoY, June PPI YoY, June PPI MoM, July NY Empire State manufacturing index, initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales MoM, July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June NFIB small business optimism index, ADP employment change weekly for the week ending June 27, July NAHB housing market index, May business inventories MoM, June pending home sales index MoM, June annualized housing starts total, June building permits total, June import price index MoM, June industrial output MoM, July preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The Eurozone will release data including May industrial output MoM, May seasonally adjusted trade balance, May seasonally adjusted current account, June final CPI YoY, and June final CPI MoM. The UK will release data including May three-month GDP MoM, May manufacturing output MoM, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and May industrial output MoM. Data such as Canada’s May wholesale sales MoM and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision as of July 15 will also be released. In addition, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on H1 2026 import and export situation; the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on national economic performance; the National Energy Administration will release nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. China’s refined oil products will see a new pricing adjustment window open. Fed Governor Waller will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at the hearing on the “Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report”; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a fireside chat; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs at the hearing on the “Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.” On July 16, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak; 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy. Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; the Bank of Canada will release its interest rate decision and monetary policy report, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil side: Overnight last Friday, oil prices on both benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 0.79% and Brent crude down 1.42%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude rose 4.11% and Brent crude rose 4.3%, together ending a prior four-week losing streak. Markets are still pinning hopes on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for navigation. Notably, after the US and Iran conflict escalated this week, the weekly oil price shed its four-week losing streak, gaining over 4% for the week. According to CCTV News, on Friday, July 10, local time, US President Trump posted on his social media platform “Truth Social,” stating that Iran wanted to continue “negotiations” with the US, and the US had agreed to continue negotiations. Trump also said the US had clearly informed Iran that the ceasefire was over. Subsequently, Xinhua News Agency, citing US media reports, said a new round of US and Iran negotiations may be held in Switzerland this week. However, according to Iran’s Fars News Agency, sources close to the Iranian negotiating team said the claim that Iran and the US would hold a new round of talks this week was untrue. According to CCTV, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Friday that Iran has never sought to negotiate with the US but agreed to a visit by mediators to Iran. (Wall Street CN) CCTV reporters learned from the Iranian side that Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi will lead a diplomatic delegation to visit Oman on the 11th. During the visit, the two sides plan to engage in dialogue and exchange views on bilateral relations and the regional situation, especially the current conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Data released on the 10th by international market services firm Kpler showed that on July 9, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz area fell to 22 from 30 the previous day, marking the second consecutive day of declining strait traffic volume. Kpler said this data includes both commercial and non-commercial vessels, with commercial vessel traffic slightly higher than non-commercial. “The renewed escalation of US-Iran military confrontation has weakened market confidence that diplomatic efforts can bring stability to the situation in the near term.” (Xinhua News Agency) Barclays: Risks to the forecasts of $96/bbl and $85/bbl for Brent crude oil prices in 2026 and 2027 respectively are fairly balanced. This week, OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report (specific release time of the monthly report is pending, typically published around 18-21 Beijing time).

★ macro ★ 01 ★★ [The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan from open market operations.] The central bank conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with a bid volume of 10 billion yuan and an allotment volume of 10 billion yuan, at an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous level. As 288.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 278.5 billion yuan was achieved on the day. 02 ★★★ [NBS: June Consumer Prices Rose 1.0% YoY] Data from the NBS showed that in June 2026, the national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. Urban areas rose 1.0%, rural areas rose 0.8%; food prices fell 1.6%, non-food prices rose 1.5%; consumer goods prices rose 1.1%, services prices rose 0.8%. In H1, the national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In June, the national CPI fell 0.3% MoM. Urban prices fell 0.4%, rural prices fell 0.3%; food prices fell 0.4%, non-food prices fell 0.3%; consumer goods prices fell 0.6%, services prices remained flat. 03 ★★★ [ [NBS: June Industrial Producer Prices Rose 4.1% YoY] ] Data from the NBS showed that in June 2026, the national PPI rose 4.1% YoY and fell 0.3% MoM. Industrial producer purchasing prices rose 6.4% YoY and fell 0.2% MoM. In H1, industrial producer prices rose 1.5% YoY, and industrial producer purchasing prices rose 2.4%. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★★ [Zhejiang Activates Level IV Typhoon Emergency Response] The 9th typhoon of this year, Bavi, was located on the ocean surface about 1,210 kilometers east-southeast of Keelung City, Taiwan, at 5:00 a.m. on July 9, with maximum sustained winds of Force 16 near its center (super typhoon). It is forecast to move northwest at about 15–20 km/h, gradually turning to move northwest tonight, and gradually approaching the waters east of Taiwan. Affected by Bavi, winds in the southern East China Sea will gradually strengthen to Force 8–11 on the night of the 9th. According to the Zhejiang Provincial Emergency Plan for Flood Control, Typhoon Prevention and Drought Relief and the work plan for defending against Typhoon Bavi, after assessment and consultation, the Zhejiang Provincial Flood Control and Typhoon Prevention Headquarters decided at 9:00 a.m. on July 9 to adjust the maritime typhoon emergency response to a Level IV typhoon emergency response. 02 ★★ [H1 NEV Production and Sales Both Exceeded 7 Million Units] On July 9, the latest data released by CAAM showed that from January to June this year, China’s NEV market saw steady growth in production and sales as well as exports. NEV production and sales totaled 7.438 million units and 7.446 million units, up 6.7% YoY and 7.3% YoY, respectively; in June, NEV new-vehicle sales accounted for nearly 60% of total new-vehicle sales. On the export front, from January to June, auto exports reached 5.096 million units, up 65.3% YoY. Of this, NEV exports were 2.355 million units, up 1.2 times YoY. 03 ★★ [China Index Academy: Full-Year Floor Space of Newly Built Commercial Buildings Sold Is Expected to Fall 7.8% YoY] China Index Academy released Summary of China’s Real Estate Market in H1 2026 & Trend Outlook for H2, expecting that in H2, policies on both the supply and demand sides will continue to gain traction, and stabilizing home prices may become a key focus. Overall, the real estate market remains in the process of consolidating at lows, and the market recovery will continue to show divergent characteristics. Looking ahead to H2, the second-hand housing market in core cities is expected to maintain a certain level of activity; sustained improvement in transactions, together with a stabilization in listings, will further narrow the pace of price declines, and the foundation for price stabilization in some cities will gradually strengthen. For new homes, affected by a low base in the same period of 2025, the YoY decline in nationwide new-home sales in H2 is expected to narrow gradually, but a comprehensive market recovery will still take time. 04 ★★★ [Shipbuilders’ Orders Scheduled Through 2030, Industry Sees Clear Upcycle Opportunities] Riding the wave of the global shipbuilding industry’s recovery, China’s shipbuilding sector is seeing clear upcycle opportunities. In H1, Hengli Heavy Industry signed 207 new vessel orders, with cumulative orders on hand exceeding 500 vessels, and its delivery schedule has been locked in through 2030; China State Shipbuilding’s delivery cycle is also scheduled through 2030; and Sumec’s newly won orders in Q1 2026 surged by more than 600% YoY. Overall, orders at leading shipbuilders in China are generally full, and industry dividends are being released. Amid the high-prosperity cycle, potential risks also warrant attention. Analysts noted that overly rapid capacity expansion under optimistic sentiment should be guarded against. In addition, variables such as trade policy disruptions, divergence in segmented demand, and shortcomings in fuel technologies may constrain the industry’s upside room and profitability. 05 ★★ [ Mongolia’s Coal Exports Reached 59.21 Million mt in H1 2026 ] According to statistical data released by Mongolia’s customs authorities, from January to June 2026, Mongolia’s cumulative coal exports totaled 59.2149 million mt, with average monthly coal exports close to 10 million mt, an increase of 21.34 million mt compared to the same period last year, up 56.3% YoY. Among them, hard coal exports were 56.8428 million mt, up 62.0% YoY; lignite exports were 2.3721 million mt, down 15.2% YoY. In June, Mongolia’s coal exports continued to surge, with monthly exports reaching 10.3057 million mt, up 69.0% YoY and up 4.8% MoM. Of this, hard coal exports stood at 9.9272 million mt, up 72.7% YoY and up 4.3% MoM; lignite exports were 378,400 mt, up 8.8% YoY and up 17.8% MoM. ★ Other Hot Topics ★ ⭕ [Tata Steel’s Q1 FY2027 India Crude Steel Production at 5.82 Million mt] Indian steelmaker Tata Steel Group released its production and delivery data for Q1 FY2027 (April 1, 2026 to June 30, 2026). Tata Steel India’s crude steel production reached 5.82 million mt, down about 6% MoM and up 11% YoY, primarily driven by higher output at the Jamshedpur and Kalinganagar plants; during the same period, its India deliveries stood at 5.17 million mt, down about 16% MoM and up about 9% YoY, with domestic deliveries up 11% YoY. ⭕[Fangda Jiugang Successfully Trial-Rolls 36mm Large-Size HG6E/C High-Strength Seismic Rebar] Recently, Fangda Jiugang successfully trial-rolled 36mm large-size HG6E/C high-strength seismic rebar for the first time. Testing shows that all performance indicators, dimensional accuracy, and surface quality comply with relevant standards, marking a major breakthrough in the high-end construction steel segment for the enterprise. HG6E/C is a 635MPa-grade ultra-high-strength seismic rebar, a high-grade, high-end specialty steel for construction, offering significant comprehensive advantages over conventional rebar used in general engineering. ⭕ [Tsingshan Special Material Stainless Steel Deep-Processing Project Commissioned] The “Four-Chain” Integration Promotion Meeting for the stainless steel industry chain and the Tsingshan Special Material Launch & Development Conference were held in Zhouning County. Attendees included Xiang Guangda, Chairman of Tsingshan Holding Group; Zhang Jimin, Chairman of Xintuo Group; Zhang Longqiang, Deputy Secretary General of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) and Party Secretary and President of the Metallurgical Industry Information and Standards Research Institute; Li Yan, Member of the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee and Executive Vice Mayor; Wang Qingjie, Executive President of the Stainless Steel Branch of CISA; Zhang Luyao, Chairman of Fujian Tsingshan Special Materials Co., Ltd.; Lei Chunxiong, Secretary of the County Party Committee; Yang Chenxia, Director of the Comprehensive Division of the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology; and Zheng Jinsi, Deputy Director of the Municipal Bureau of Industry and Information Technology. The meeting was chaired by Chen Dongyue, Deputy Secretary of the County Party Committee, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group of the County Government, and Acting County Magistrate. * This report is an original work and/or compilation of SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM holds the copyright in accordance with the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws, regulations, and international treaties. Without written permission, no one may reproduce, modify, sell, transfer, display, translate, compile, and disseminate or otherwise disclose the above content to any third party or permit any third party to use it. Once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to demanding the assumption of contractual liability for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. 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Once discovered, SMM will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to demanding the assumption of contractual liability for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. The views in this report are based on information collected from the market and a comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided in this report is for reference only, and risks are borne by the user. This report does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not replace their independent judgment with this report. Any decision made by clients has nothing to do with SMM. Furthermore, any losses or liabilities resulting from unauthorized and illegal use of the views in this report have nothing to do with SMM. SMM reserves the right to modify and the final interpretation of the terms of this statement.

SMM, Jul 2: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on overseas and China markets showed mixed performance. Only LME nickel, SHFE copper, and SHFE tin rose, with SHFE tin up 0.99%, LME nickel up 0.49%, and SHFE copper up 0.07%. SHFE aluminum closed flat at 22,485 yuan/mt. LME zinc led the decline, down 1.68%, while losses in other metals were within 1%. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.11%, and the most-traded aluminum casting contract rose 0.4%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, iron ore led gains, up 1.7%. Rebar rose 0.1%, while stainless steel fell 0.54% and hot-rolled coil edged down 0.09%. Coking coal and coke, coking coal closed flat at 1,265 yuan/mt, and coke fell 1.12%. In the precious metals sector overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.15% and COMEX silver fell 0.53%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold rose 1.23% and SHFE silver rose 1.44%. As of 6:43 a.m. on Jul 2, overnight closing quotes: Macro Front China: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, compiled by RatingDog, came in at 51.7 in June, staying in expansion territory for the seventh consecutive month. [Shenzhen Housing Market Trading Volume Hits Near 6-Year High in June] Data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center showed that combined new and second-hand residential home sales in Shenzhen reached 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. This was the highest transaction volume for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations of new homes (pre-sale and move-in) totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY. Second-hand home transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jinshi Data APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.41. Fortress Securities stated that investors are underestimating the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates as early as this month, as Chairman Kevin Warsh appears ready to take a more preemptive approach to fighting inflation. The firm's head of macro strategy, Frank Flight, continues to view two rate hikes this year—in September and December—as his base case. Even so, he noted that the market is pricing in a roughly 30% probability of a July hike, a level he considers too low. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set an ambitious timetable for the US central bank to "discover" and begin relying on real-time economic data, which he argues would be superior to what he described as "problematic government reports." "My aspiration is that in nine to 12 months, we will be leveraging new technologies to understand what is happening in the real economy in a synchronous, real-time manner, enabling us as central bank policymakers to make better decisions. We will no longer rely solely on data from government agencies that suffer from statistical biases and where surveys have lost their relevance," Warsh said at a monetary policy forum in Portugal. "My ideal data is 'what's happening now.' If we do our jobs well, a year from today we will say: we have uncovered data that helps us make better decisions." Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking (the final day of the Sintra annual conference) that inflation risks have receded over the past four weeks, while he reaffirmed his commitment to price stability. He declined to provide any forward guidance on future interest rate policy. He described the labour market as "holding steady," noting robust economic demand and strong supply-side performance. Deutsche Bank analysis pointed out that Fed officials' public remarks have declined notably since the Jun 17 FOMC meeting, confirming Warsh's earlier policy stance that "US central bank officials talk too much" and that there is a need to reduce forward guidance and push for "institutional change." (Wallstreetcn) Data: US private-sector job growth slowed in June but increased for the 12th consecutive month, showing the labour market cooldown has yet to evolve into a sharp slowdown. Data released Wednesday by ADP Research showed US private payrolls rose by 98,000 in June, below the 119,000 estimated by economists. The prior month's figure was an increase of 122,000. Although the gain missed expectations, the data still supports the judgment that the labour market has been stabilizing this year. Macro Front: Data releases today include the US June unemployment rate, US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US initial jobless claims for the week ended Jun 27, US June average hourly earnings YoY, US June average hourly earnings MoM, US May factory orders MoM, Switzerland June CPI MoM, and the Eurozone May unemployment rate. Due to the US Independence Day holiday (Jul 3), US June non-farm payrolls data will be released earlier, at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on Thursday, Jul 2. The US stock market will be closed on Friday, Jul 3. Trading in CME precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, US Treasury, and equity index futures contracts will end early at 1:00 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Trading in ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 1:30 a.m. Beijing time on Jul 4. Investors are advised to take note. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, the Ministry of Commerce will hold its first regular press conference for July. 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will attend a conference on the Spanish economy. Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices fell across both benchmarks, with WTI crude down 2.03% and Brent crude down 2.41%. The immediate driver of the heavy sell-off was a rapid easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A White House spokesperson explicitly stated there is a strong chance of reaching a deal between the US and Iran, with delegations from both sides having held indirect talks in Doha on Jul 1 on topics including unfreezing assets and ensuring maritime security in the strait. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley concluded that the global oil market is about to return to severe oversupply. Even accounting for the massive global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves, the daily average net surplus in the crude oil market next year will still approach 2 million barrels, exerting long-term pressure on oil prices. (Wallstreetcn) Official data showed US crude oil inventories fell from 415 million barrels at the end of February to 331 million barrels as of Jun 19, hitting their lowest level since 1983. Although these depleted reserves urgently need to be rebuilt, this is not enough to reverse the surplus pattern. Samantha Dart, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, estimated global demand to replenish strategic petroleum reserves is slightly above 1 million barrels per day. While this will tighten the market to some extent, it can only partially offset the anticipated surplus, with the market ultimately still facing a net surplus of nearly 2 million barrels per day. Regarding market concerns over future shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs believes the material impact on global energy prices would be limited. (Wallstreetcn)

★ Macro ★ 01 ★★ [Oil Prices May Return to the 7-Yuan Era] According to China's refined oil product price adjustment cycle, the 13th adjustment window of the year will open at 24:00 on July 3, with only 3 statistical working days remaining and 70% of the current pricing cycle completed. As reported by Dazhong Daily, the decline in oil prices has continued to widen during this cycle, deepening for six consecutive days from an initial drop of just over 0.4 yuan to the current level exceeding 0.65 yuan. The trend of a substantial cut appears largely irreversible, and this Friday evening may mark the year's first triple consecutive decline in oil prices, as well as the fourth price reduction in 2024. As of the calculation data from the 7th working day, estimated figures show a cut of 820 yuan/mt for gasoline and 790 yuan/mt for diesel. Converted to retail terminal unit prices, estimates show a drop of 0.66 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.7 yuan per liter for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.68 yuan per liter for 0# diesel. The two previous adjustments in June had already achieved a double consecutive decline, with cumulative cuts of 1,040 yuan/mt and 1,000 yuan/mt for gasoline and diesel respectively, equivalent to a cumulative price drop of between 0.84 and 0.89 yuan per liter. The price of 92-octane gasoline has fallen below 8 yuan, returning to the 7-yuan range. Once this round of cuts takes effect, the national average price for 95-octane gasoline may fall below 8 yuan, re-entering the 7-yuan era. 02 ★★ [US and Iranian Officials to Hold Indirect Talks in Doha] Sources stated on July 1 that officials from the US and Iran will hold indirect talks in the Qatari capital, Doha, later that day. ★ Industry and Downstream ★ 01 ★★ [Shenzhen Real Estate Market Hits New High for June Transactions in Nearly Six Years] According to data released today by the Shenzhen Centaline Research Center, first-hand and second-hand residential transactions in Shenzhen totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM yet up 14.2% YoY. The combined transaction volume was the highest for the same period since 2021. Specifically, online registrations for new housing (pre-sale and existing) amounted to 3,785 units, a decrease of 16.7% MoM but an increase of 15.6% YoY, while second-hand housing transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. Monitoring data indicates that both new home pre-sales and second-hand home transactions in Shenzhen for the month reached record highs for the same period over the past six years, marking the best June performance for the property market in nearly six years. 02 ★★ [China-Made Air Conditioners See Export Orders Surge from Europe] Data shows that only about 20% of European households have air conditioning installed. Due to the concentrated surge in European demand for cooling, export orders for Chinese-made air conditioners have continued to grow. Air conditioning enterprises are working overtime to produce and fulfill these export orders. At an enterprise's air conditioner production workshop in Jiangmen, Guangdong, workers are rushing to assemble air conditioner parts. Since March this year, the enterprise’s export orders to the European market saw a sharp increase, with exports in May exceeding 800,000 units, up 20.3% YoY. The person in charge told the reporter that many residential buildings in Europe were built long ago, building facades are subject to strict controls, and installation procedures for traditional split air conditioners are complicated with high approval thresholds. Mobile air conditioners produced by Chinese enterprises, which require no outdoor unit and no wall drilling, precisely match the usage scenarios of local homes, apartments, and shops. An air conditioner enterprise’s sales in the French market in June surged over 100% YoY, while its Italian market sales rose 30% YoY in June. 03 ★★ [Chongqing: Promoting Housing "Trade-in" and Optimizing Support Policies such as "Selling Smaller to Buy Larger" and "Transfer with Mortgage"] The Chongqing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee is publicly soliciting opinions on the "Chongqing Urban Housing High-Quality Development 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Comments)". It proposes to promote a virtuous cycle in the new and second-hand housing markets, advance housing "trade-in", optimize support policies such as "selling smaller to buy larger" and "transfer with mortgage", reduce transaction costs, and foster synergy between the new and second-hand housing markets. Based on the "Yuyue Anju" system, fully implement online contract signing services for existing homes, establish and improve mechanisms for supervision of existing home transaction funds, listing and release of property listings, and price monitoring; simplify the transaction process, strengthen real estate registration information sharing, automatically verify property information, and promote "one-stop acceptance" and full online processing of transaction services. 04 ★★ [TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company Successfully Trials T1100S-Grade Ultra-High-Strength Carbon Fiber in a Single Attempt] According to China Baowu, recently, the TISCO Steel Science & Technology Company under China Baowu successfully trial-produced T1100S-grade ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in a single attempt, with excellent performance across all key indicators, reaching domestic leading and international advanced levels. Carbon fiber is a key strategic material supporting aerospace and high-end equipment manufacturing. From aircraft structural components to rocket casings, breakthroughs in lightweight materials directly determine the performance ceiling of equipment. The T1100S grade, meanwhile, is a top-tier high-modulus, ultra-high-strength carbon fiber in the industry, with extremely high technical barriers, and has long been a key focus of China’s new material breakthroughs. 05 ★★ [In H1, New Home Prices in 100 Chinese Cities Edge Up Cumulatively, While Second-Hand Home Prices Fall] In the first half of this year, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities continued a structural uptrend. In June, the average new home price in the 100 cities was 17,184 yuan per m², up 0.16% MoM and up 2% YoY. Second-hand home prices in the 100 cities fell cumulatively. In June, the average second-hand home price in the 100 cities was 12,639 yuan per m², down 0.42% MoM and down 7.68% YoY. Core cities were the first to show positive signals: Shenzhen’s second-hand home prices turned to a month-on-month increase in June, while Shanghai’s second-hand home prices rose MoM for four consecutive months. ★Other Hot Topics★ ⭕ [China Fully Enters Main Flooding Season Today] Starting July 1, China fully entered the main flooding season. According to forecasts and comprehensive assessments, during the main flooding season (July–August), both northern and southern China will see areas of heavy rainfall, with the north facing relatively severe flooding, more frequent localized extreme rainstorms and floods, and stronger typhoons moving northward to affect inland areas. Meanwhile, parts of the southwest and northwest may experience periodic droughts due to high temperatures and low rainfall. The flood control and drought relief situation is severe and complex. On the morning of July 1, the Ministry of Water Resources organized a rolling consultation to analyze and assess the current and near-term development of rainfall, water conditions, flooding, and drought, and deployed targeted key preventive measures accordingly. Based on the 24-hour rainfall forecast, the ministry issued province-specific targeted early warnings to 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including Liaoning, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Gansu, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. These warnings detailed lists of counties (cities and districts) under heavy rainfall coverage, reservoir lists, and flash flood disaster risk areas and locations, and reminded relevant parties to ensure safe reservoir operation during flooding, and to guard against small and medium river floods and flash flood disasters. ⭕ [Domestic Route Fuel Surcharges to Be Sharply Cut from July 5] 9 Air issued a notice today stating that effective July 5, 2026 (ticket issuance date), domestic route fuel surcharges will be reduced. For routes over 800 kilometers, each passenger will be charged 100 yuan, and for routes of 800 kilometers or less, each passenger will be charged 50 yuan, representing cuts of 50 yuan and 30 yuan, respectively, from the previous levels. In April and May this year, domestic fuel surcharges were raised significantly for consecutive months. Starting June 5, they were reduced by 20 yuan and 10 yuan for the two categories. With the decline in fuel prices, the fuel surcharge reduction in July is much larger. ⭕ ["US ADP Employment Data" Lower Than Expected] US ADP employment for June was 98,000, the lowest increase since March, below the expected 118,000. The prior reading was 122,000. *This report is an original work and/or compilation produced exclusively by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"). SMM legally holds the copyright and is protected by the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China and other applicable laws and international treaties. No reproduction, modification, sale, transfer, display, translation, compilation, dissemination, or any other form of disclosure of the above content to third parties or licensing thereof is permitted without written authorization. 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Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 5:42 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices have tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what many investors interpreted as a hawkish debut, but at least one market strategist argues the precious metal's longer-term outlook remains intact. In commentary following Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair, Rebecca Ivaldi, Market Strategist at FCT Capital Partners and former Lehman Brothers analyst, said markets may be overestimating the central bank's willingness to keep monetary policy restrictive and underestimating the structural forces supporting gold demand. The precious metal came under pressure after Warsh repeatedly emphasized the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. During the press conference, Warsh described inflation as a burden on American households and declared that the Federal Open Market Committee was "unambiguous and unanimous" in its determination to restore price stability. However, Ivaldi argues that beneath the hawkish rhetoric were several signals suggesting a less restrictive policy path than markets initially assumed. "The knee-jerk algorithmic reaction to the press conference was exactly what we saw in January right after the news broke that Warsh had been picked -- Hawk in the Fed equals Gold Down," she wrote. "But this short-term speculative reaction is almost entirely irrelevant in my view." One of the key points highlighted by Ivaldi was Warsh's discussion of housing markets. During the press conference, the Fed chair acknowledged that monetary policy appeared "somewhat restrictive" in housing, while describing the broader impact of policy across the economy as "uneven." Ivaldi interpreted those comments as evidence that Warsh may be more concerned about overly restrictive borrowing costs than his public messaging suggests. She also pointed to Warsh's skepticism toward traditional inflation measures and his decision to launch a review of the Fed's data-gathering framework. During the press conference, Warsh announced a task force to examine new data sources and improve the quality and timeliness of economic information available to policymakers. He argued that many official statistics rely on outdated survey methods and that policymakers need more real-time information about economic conditions. According to Ivaldi, that effort suggests the Fed may ultimately conclude that underlying inflation pressures are less severe than headline data currently indicate. She contends that once temporary energy-related distortions are removed, inflation is already much closer to the Fed's target than widely believed. Another point attracting attention was Warsh's treatment of the Fed's so-called "dot plot." Although the latest projections showed a significant number of policymakers expecting higher rates by year-end, Warsh downplayed the importance of those forecasts, noting that participants effectively submitted their projections in pencil and could easily revise them as conditions change. Ivaldi argues that the chairman's remarks undermine the market's assumption that the Fed is preparing for additional tightening. She noted that Warsh confirmed there was no active discussion of raising rates at the current meeting and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. For gold investors, however, Ivaldi believes the more important story lies beyond Fed policy. She argues that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the gradual evolution of non-dollar trade arrangements continue to support long-term demand for physical gold. Ivaldi explained that the reopening of energy trade routes could restore flows in which Middle Eastern trade surpluses are converted into physical gold through Chinese markets, creating a structural source of demand largely independent of short-term interest-rate expectations. Ivaldi also maintains that rising sovereign debt burdens and pressure on government financing costs ultimately limit how restrictive monetary policy can become. In her view, policymakers face increasing incentives to keep Treasury yields contained, a backdrop that historically has been supportive for hard assets such as gold. Warsh himself offered little guidance on the future path of rates, repeatedly stressing that the Fed had abandoned formal forward guidance and would remain focused on incoming data. He also emphasized that the central bank's credibility would ultimately be measured by its ability to deliver price stability rather than by its rhetoric. For now, gold traders appear focused on the chairman's inflation-fighting language. But Ivaldi argues that investors should pay closer attention to what she sees as the deeper forces reshaping global capital flows. "The jawboning works for a few days, but the underlying plumbing tells the real story," she said. “The dollar is left less fungible for international trade, not more, the sovereign debt burden remains massive, and the long-term structural case for gold has only grown stronger. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-post-fed-selloff-may-be-missing-bigger-picture-says-former-lehman

SMM June 15 News: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals moved higher across the board. SHFE copper rose 1.35%, SHFE tin rose 4.35%. SHFE nickel rose 1.27%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.31%, SHFE zinc rose 2.37%, SHFE lead rose 1.21%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.67%, while the most-traded alumina contract edged lower. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.8%, the most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 0.67%. Ferrous metals rose broadly, with iron ore up 0.39%, rebar up 0.41%, hot-rolled coil up 0.5%, and stainless steel up 1.54%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.97%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.06%. Overseas base metals: As of 11:38, LME metals nearly all rose. LME copper rose 0.89%, LME aluminum fell 0.17%, LME lead rose 0.56%, LME zinc rose 0.85%, LME tin rose 2.35%, LME nickel rose 1.12%. Precious metals: As of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 2.47%, COMEX silver rose 3.52%. Domestic precious metals: The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 7.93%. Furthermore, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.67%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.36%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe route container shipping futures contract fell 3.44% to 3,773.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 15, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, mainstream transaction prices for #0 zinc were concentrated at 24,650-24,885 yuan/mt, Shuangyan mainstream transactions were at 24,740-24,945 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream transactions were at 24,580-24,815 yuan/mt. In early trading, market quotes against SMM’s average price were at premiums of 10-30 yuan/mt, with no quotes against the futures price yet... Macro Front Domestic: [NDRC and Other Departments: Launching a Three-Year Campaign for Key Industries’ Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reducing Transformation] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments have decided to organize a three-year campaign for energy-saving and carbon-reducing transformation in key industries, including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that key industries have large-scale and high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting from 2026, nine key industries—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—will be the focus of a three-year initiative to fully implement energy-saving and carbon-reduction retrofits. This aims to drive enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible, leading to a marked improvement in the green and low-carbon development of these industries. Beginning in 2028, the scope of implementation will be further expanded based on practical circumstances, with additional industries advanced in a phased manner. All regions may proceed in an orderly fashion as needed, based on local conditions. [PBOC Reverse Repo Injects Net 206.5 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted a 425 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation in the open market at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repos matured. US Dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.27% to 99.53. Easing tensions in the Middle East led the market to scale back bets on US Fed interest rate hikes. Interest rate swaps showed traders now see a roughly 60% probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points before December, down from about 80% last Friday. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the Fed holding interest rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of holding rates steady through July is 91.3%, with a 7.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 1.4% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jinshi Data APP) On the data front: US consumer confidence rebounded for the first time in four months in early June, as lower gasoline prices offered some relief to Americans grappling with surging inflation. A survey released Friday showed the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June rose to 48.9 from May's record low of 44.8. Economists had expected a modest recovery to 46. Consumers anticipated prices would rise 4.6% YoY over the next year, down from 4.8% in May. They also projected costs would climb at an average annual rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, also below the prior month's expected increase. Although gasoline prices remain higher than pre-Ukraine war levels, the decline in recent weeks has lessened pessimism about personal finances among Americans. The report showed a notable improvement in sentiment among lower-income consumers, who typically allocate a larger share of their budgets to fuel costs. Nevertheless, against the backdrop of the Iran war and the resulting wave of inflation, overall economic sentiment remains at historically depressed levels. Survey Director Joanne Hsu stated, "While there has been some relief, gasoline prices still have a significant impact on consumers. As a result, current price levels remain broadly unacceptable to consumers and have dampened their view of the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland’s May Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone’s April seasonally adjusted trade balance, Eurozone April industrial production MoM, Canada April wholesale sales MoM, the US June Empire State manufacturing index, US May industrial production MoM, the US June NAHB Housing Market Index, and China’s May total electricity consumption YoY (to be determined), among other data. Attention should also be paid to: ECB President Lagarde’s speech; the National Energy Administration’s release of total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; and the opening of the G7 summit, which runs through June 17. Crude Oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 5.58% and Brent down 4.76%. A US-Iran peace agreement is expected to be signed soon, easing market concerns over crude supply and putting oil prices under pressure. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump stated on social media on the 14th that with the signing of the US-Iran agreement on the 19th, the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened for mine-clearing operations. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister also indicated that an immediate and permanent halt to military operations on multiple fronts, including in Lebanon, will be announced starting tonight. Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said the US nationwide average gasoline price fell below $4 per gallon on Sunday for the first time since April 20. He expects that in an optimistic scenario, the nationwide average price could fall below $3.75 per gallon before July 4, but the hurricane season could be a major variable in the latter half of the summer. " The coming weeks are critical—any major misstep could significantly impact the subsequent oil price trajectory." (Wall Street CN) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►