SMM Steel, February 24 – According to SMM statistics, the estimated total shipments to mainstream markets this week reached 302,700 mt, up 50.90% WoW. By market:

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fluctuated, Rising First and Then Falling, While Spot Quotes Edged Lower and Transactions Recovered SMM News, March 17: SS futures moved sideways. During the day, SS futures rose first and then fell, overall maintaining a sideways movement pattern, and closed at 14,155 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, although SS futures were relatively strong in the morning, affected by the previous cuts in guidance prices by major stainless steel mills, trader quotes still edged slightly lower than yesterday. However, market sentiment had stabilized somewhat, and amid the price pullback, both inquiries and transactions increased to some extent. The most-traded SS futures contract fluctuated. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,220 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi stood at 200-400 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan also fell by 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were basically stable; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were quoted basically stable in Wuxi; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were basically stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" began, the stainless steel market entered a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually recovering. Recently, activity in inquiries and purchases increased markedly, but stainless steel spot prices overall remained basically stable, with no obvious fluctuations. End-user procurement was still mainly driven by rigid demand, and the full bustle of the peak season had yet to emerge, ...

Recently, Chengdu Xinyan Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. completed the batch delivery of 48 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks in the 49-mt class, marking not only a major breakthrough in the market-oriented deployment of the enterprise’s hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles, but also demonstrating its strength in large-scale operations and further accelerating Chengdu’s hydrogen energy industry toward commercialization and clustering. The delivered vehicles were manufactured by Sinotruk Chengshang and equipped with the large-power hydrogen fuel cell system independently developed by Chengdu Xinyan. With high reliability and strong load-bearing capacity, they are well suited to trunk logistics and bulk transportation scenarios. Combined with local hydrogen refueling network support and Sichuan’s expressway toll reduction and exemption policies, they can provide clients with a green, efficient, and low-cost transportation solution. As a core period of the “Chengdu-Chongqing Hydrogen Corridor,” Chengdu is accelerating the development of an ecological system spanning the entire industry chain of “production, storage, transportation, refueling, and application.” Multiple provincial- and municipal-level policies are supporting the promotion of hydrogen-powered vehicles. The operation of these heavy-duty trucks will further drive coordinated development across the upstream and downstream industry chain and foster a virtuous industrial cycle. As hydrogen energy has become a hot topic at this year’s national Two Sessions, with the industry focusing on the large-scale application of fuel cell vehicles, Chengdu Xinyan’s delivery responds to the national strategy with concrete action, supports Chengdu in building a highland for the hydrogen energy industry in western China, and injects new momentum into the region’s green transformation.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Fell Back as Steel Mill Price Adjustments Dampened Downstream Buying Interest SMM News, March 16: SS futures showed a downward pullback. Although the contract was relatively stable during Friday's night session, Monday's open was dragged lower by a broad decline across the nonferrous metals sector, with SS also pulling back to close at 14,185 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, affected by the decline in SS futures and an overall cut of 200 yuan/mt in the morning guidance prices from a major stainless steel mill, retail quotations in the market edged lower. Price fluctuations fueled stronger wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers, and intraday transactions were weak. However, market feedback indicated that transactions had been broadly steady earlier, and coupled with relatively strong expectations for the cost side of stainless steel, most market participants had not expected this round of price cuts. Traders' spot quotations fell by less than the reduction in the guidance price. The most-traded SS futures contract pulled back after falling. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,045 yuan/mt, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for Wuxi 304/2B were in the range of 245-445 yuan/mt. In the spot market, Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coils were generally stable; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coils were stable; Wuxi quotations for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils were stable; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also stable. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins, the stainless steel market is entering a window for demand recovery, with downstream end-users gradually resu...

[SMM Analysis] Freight Rates Surge, Making Deals Difficult for Steel Expor ters Affected by the US-Iran conflict, tight energy supply and sharply higher fuel costs, compounded by exchange rate fluctuations, have continuously pushed up China's export offers in recent days. Compared with the beginning of the month (March 6), SMM HRC prices have been raised by $9/mt; galvanizing prices rose by $11/mt; CRC rose by $5/mt; billet rose by $6/mt; and rebar rose by $6/mt. However, looking back at market transaction performance, deals weakened again recently. According to the SMM survey, ocean freight rates surged sharply, with current freight to the Middle East as high as $50-60. Most outside China clients remained on the sidelines; shipowners also refused to commit tonnage while waiting for the market to stabilize. For China exporters, there were offers but no market, making shipments difficult. Meanwhile, market sources said Hadeed, the GCC's only flat steel producer, raised its May hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, still related to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. HRC cargoes previously booked from China and other origins were also being redirected to the west coast, mainly heading to Jeddah Port, bringing high inland transportation costs. As for global steel prices, in India, in addition to rising raw material costs and rupee depreciation, a sudden LNG energy shortage further pushed up production costs, forcing steel mills to maintain a strong willingness to hold prices firm despite the traditional domestic off-season and blocked exports. In the Southeast Asian market, price increases were accepted entirely passively, mainly due to the rigid pass-through of high ocean freight rates by overseas suppliers. Although Southeast Asian buyers hesitated to take orders, they had no choice but to passively accept the increases against the backdrop of persistently high geopolitical logistics costs. At the same time, CIS export offers also rose significantly, benefiting from the intensifying geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the resulting short-term global supply tightens. In the Middle East market, meanwhile, as war tensions continued to escalate, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz completely disrupted transportation, while freight rates and delivery uncertainty pushed the sheets & plates import markets in the UAE and Saudi Arabia into a complete standstill. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. The copyright, trademark rights, domain name rights, commercial data information property rights, and other related intellectual property rights of all content contained in this report (including but not limited to information, articles, data, charts, pictures, audio, video, logos, advertisements, trademarks, trade names, domain names, layout designs, etc.) are owned or held by SMM or its related right holders. The above rights are strictly protected by relevant laws and regulations of the People's Republic of China, such as the Copyright Law of the People's Republic of China, the Trademark Law of the People's Republic of China, and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People's Republic of China, as well as applicable international treaties. Without prior written authorization from SMM, no institution or individual may: 1. Use all or part of this report in any form (including but not limited to reprinting, modifying, selling, transferring, displaying, translating, compiling, disseminating); 2. Disclose the content of this report to any third party; 3. License or authorize any third party to use the content of this report; 4. For any unauthorized use, SMM will legally pursue the legal responsibilities of the infringer, demanding that they bear legal responsibilities including but not limited to contractual breach liability, returning unjust enrichment, and compensating for direct and indirect economic losses. Data Source Statement: (Except for publicly available information, other data in this report are derived from publicly available information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, brokerage reports, data from the National Bureau of Statistics, customs import and export data, various data published by major associations and institutions, etc.), market exchanges, and comprehensive analysis and reasonable inferences made by the research team based on SMM's internal database models. This information is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. SMM reserves the final interpretation right of the terms in this statement and the right to adjust and modify the content of the statement according to actual circumstances.

[SMM Tin Commentary: The SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated Near the 370,000 Level, with Market Sentiment Remaining Predominantly Cautious Ahead of the Interest Rate Cut Decision]

As a niche yet high-strategic rare metal, hafnium (Hf, atomic number 72) lags behind common metals like copper in public awareness, but its unique physicochemical properties make it irreplaceable for nuclear power, aerospace, semiconductors and other high-end fields. This concise breakdown covers its core traits, supply dynamics and critical applications to highlight its underrecognized role in advanced manufacturing. I. Core Properties A silver-gray, high-melting-point transition metal, hafnium exists solely as a zirconium-associated metal—no independent ore deposits. The near-identical atomic radius and chemical properties of zirconium and hafnium make separation/purification highly challenging, the root of its scarcity.Key strengths for harsh industrial use: 2233℃ melting point, exceptional high-temperature oxidation/structural stability Strong room-temperature plasticity, balanced strength and toughness Superior corrosion resistance (insoluble in dilute acids/alkalis, soluble only in hydrofluoric acid/aqua regia) ~600x higher thermal neutron absorption than zirconium (ideal for nuclear reactor control) High dielectric constant of hafnium oxide (critical for advanced semiconductors) Carbides/nitrides (melting point >2900℃) for ultra-high-temperature ceramics and hard alloys II. Supply & Scarcity Resources: Extremely scarce (crustal abundance ~3 ppm), exclusively tied to zirconium ores. Global resources concentrated in Australia, South Africa, the U.S. and Brazil; China faces low hafnium content in domestic zirconium ores, leading to high external dependence. Supply: Production hinges on zirconium smelting, with zirconium-hafnium separation as a core technical barrier. Only a handful of global players produce high-purity (nuclear/electronic-grade) hafnium at scale, forming an oligopoly. Annual output is ~hundreds of tons, with ultra-low supply elasticity—supply disruptions trigger sharp price swings. Ⅲ. Irreplaceable Core Applications Demand is rigid (no cost-effective substitutes) across high-end sectors: Nuclear Industry: Preferred material for pressurized water reactor control rods, regulating reaction rates and ensuring safety. Driven by global nuclear power revival, demand is steadily growing. Aerospace: Key nickel-based single-crystal superalloy additive, boosting high-temperature creep strength and lifespan for aero-engine turbine blades, combustors and rocket nozzles. Semiconductors: High-purity electronic-grade hafnium oxide overcomes silicon dioxide’s miniaturization limits, reducing leakage current and enabling advanced-node chip production—a key growth driver. Other High-End Fields: Used in cutting tool coatings, special electronic components, corrosion-resistant materials and emerging hydrogen storage research, with expanding use cases. Ⅳ. Conclusion Hafnium is a "scarce niche metal with rigid high-end demand," holding irreplaceable strategic value in China’s key industries (nuclear power, aerospace, semiconductors). The global market remains in long-term tight supply-demand balance, and its strategic and market value will rise alongside global advanced manufacturing upgrades.

On March 11, Pan Xueyuan, Member of the Standing Committee of the Yangzhou Municipal Party Committee and Executive Vice Mayor of Yangzhou, led a team to Yizheng Economic and Technological Development Zone to survey the construction progress of the CIMC Green Hydrogen Zero-Carbon Equipment Industrial Park, a key provincial project in Jiangsu. He inspected the construction progress on site, inquired about the construction plan, key challenges, and industrial layout, and required that the leading role of chain-leading hydrogen energy enterprises be fully leveraged to coordinate efforts to bring the project into operation and deliver results at an early date. Meng Dehe, Secretary of the Yizheng Municipal Party Committee, and Yu Lei, Executive Vice Mayor, accompanied the visit, while Li Jie, General Manager of CIMC Jidian and CIMC Zhongdian, and his delegation reported on the work. In front of the project planning display board, Pan Xueyuan focused on learning about the industrial park’s product layout. The project covered a total area of 150 mu, with plant space of approximately 60,000 m², and included a 15-mu supporting detection and R&D testing base. After reaching full production, it was expected to produce 2 GW of electrolyzers and hydrogen-ammonia-methanol series equipment annually. With the goal of becoming a nationally leading supplier of hydrogen-based energy equipment, the enterprise laid out the full value chain of alkaline, PEM, and AEM electrolyzers, skid-mounted hydrogen production plants, and green ammonia and green methanol equipment, which Pan Xueyuan highly affirmed. As a chain-leading enterprise in the hydrogen energy industry chain at both the provincial and municipal levels, CIMC Zhongdian will join hands with CIMC Raffles Group to integrate industry resources and build a green hydrogen equipment industry chain. Next, with the support of the local government, the enterprise will build “two centers and two platforms,” continue to lead industry innovation, and support the high-quality development of the green hydrogen industry in Yizheng and Yangzhou as a whole.

Dalian iron ore futures were generally stronger today. The most-traded contract, I2605, eventually closed at 816.5 yuan/mt, up 1.81% from the previous trading session. Meanwhile, the spot price rose by about 5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made relatively few inquiries. Overall spot market transactions were limited. The latest SMM survey showed that the impact of blast furnace maintenance on hot metal production was 1.751 million mt, down 250,000 mt WoW. This impact is expected to further decline by 229,800 mt next week to 1.522 million mt. As blast furnace maintenance intensity gradually eases, iron ore demand is expected to show signs of rebounding in the short term. Looking ahead, although current port iron ore inventory has reached 155 million mt, the overhang is mainly concentrated in certain varieties. Overall, market demand for some high-demand varieties has seen a structural shift. In particular, varieties represented by IOCJ fines and PB lumps continued to destock rapidly, while MAC fines and Indian fines saw an inventory buildup. The structural contraction on the supply side is expected to lend favorable support to iron ore fundamentals in the short term. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs or remain relatively strong this week.

Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…