Recently, the domestic lithium chemicals market has accelerated its decline, with the price center of lithium carbonate continuing to fall. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract hit a record low of 62,560 yuan/mt since its listing. This week, lithium carbonate futures prices stabilized and rebounded. As of the close on May 14, the most-traded contract was reported at 65,200 yuan/mt, up 3%. Zhang Weixin, an analyst at China Securities Futures, believes that the current lithium carbonate market is still facing oversupply. Yang Fei, a senior researcher in the Non-Ferrous Metals and New Materials Team at CITIC Futures, stated that the recent stabilization of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly due to substantive progress made in high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, which has warmed market sentiment. Although China's lithium carbonate exports to the US are extremely low, the US is China's largest export market for ESS batteries. The mutual cancellation of hefty tariffs between China and the US indirectly benefits the lithium industry chain.

Recently, the domestic lithium chemicals market has accelerated its decline, with the price center of lithium carbonate continuing to fall. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract dropped to a record low of 62,560 yuan/mt. This week, lithium carbonate futures prices stabilized and rebounded. As of the close on May 14, the most-traded contract was reported at 65,200 yuan/mt, up 3%. Zhang Weixin, an analyst at China Securities Futures, believes that the current lithium carbonate market is still oversupplied. Yang Fei, a senior researcher at the Non-Ferrous Metals and New Materials Team of CITIC Futures, stated that the recent stabilization of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly due to substantive progress in high-level economic and trade talks between China and the US, which has warmed market sentiment. Although China's lithium carbonate exports to the US are extremely low, the US is China's largest export market for ESS batteries. The mutual cancellation of hefty tariffs by China and the US indirectly benefits the lithium industry chain. It is reported that after the US imposed tariffs, the cost of US imports of Chinese ESS parts increased by over 145%, which means a significant decline in profits for US energy storage system integrators. "The US has pledged to remove 91% of tariffs and suspend the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs. Although the absolute value of tariffs remains high, if Chinese battery cell export enterprises, US energy storage system integrators, and project investors each bear a portion of the tariff costs, all parties are expected to be profitable," Zhang Weixin believes. Based on this, the outlook for US energy storage demand is expected to improve. However, the US accounts for less than 20% of global ESS installations. Zhang Weixin believes that even considering that shipments are higher than installations, the potential demand increase from tariff reductions may range from 10,000 to 25,000 mt of LCE, having a relatively small impact on the supply-demand pattern. Therefore, although tariffs have decreased, it is difficult to change the overall oversupply situation in the market, and battery cell shipments may not see significant improvement. From a fundamental perspective, market participants believe that even if macro sentiment improves, lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate at lows in the short term. Yang Fei believes that the recent weakness in lithium carbonate prices is mainly due to the deterioration of the supply-demand structure. From the supply side, as of the week ending May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate rebounded on a WoW basis. Coupled with the recovery of lithium ore imports and the release of domestic ore capacity, market supply pressure has increased significantly. More importantly, lithium carbonate is still in an expansion cycle in 2025. According to statistics from Wang Chuhao, an analyst at Chang'an Futures, in Q1 2025, the commissioning process of new lithium resource projects both domestically and overseas proceeded smoothly. The capacities of new projects such as Goulamina, Kamativi, and Dahongliutan began to ramp up. Overall lithium resource supply in 2025 is expected to increase, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. From the demand side, the growth rates of cathode material and NEV production have slowed significantly, and demand expectations for May-June are expected to be mediocre. Wang Chuhao stated that in May this year, although the production schedules of cathode material plants increased MoM, there was no significant restocking behavior observed downstream. The market sentiment remained cautious, with large price spreads, and downstream players continued to make just-in-time procurement, with no significant improvement on the demand side. On the cost side, Zhang Weixin believes that after lithium ore prices rapidly fell below $800/mt and approached $700/mt, the current ore prices are insufficient to force the industry to undergo large-scale capacity exits. The "ore prices - lithium chemicals prices" downward spiral is likely to continue. Yang Fei also believes that the current social inventory has not significantly decreased, and lithium ore prices have not yet broken out of the downward trend. Has the price of lithium carbonate hit bottom? "The cycle for macroeconomic expectations to warm up and transmit to lithium chemicals consumption is relatively long, and ESS battery cell exports still face additional tariff pressures." Zhang Junrui, an analyst at Hongze Research, believes that lithium carbonate is more influenced by its own industry fundamentals. Before the market expectation of oversupply changes, lithium prices are likely to remain in the doldrums. Zhang Weixin also stated that the factors that can stabilize lithium carbonate prices still need to be found on the supply side. The fundamental logic behind the current decline in lithium carbonate prices is capacity exits. Achieving capacity exits through market-oriented means implies that prices need to fall below some supply costs, forcing these suppliers to cut losses and exit the market. Only when new production reduction or suspension projects emerge in the market can lithium carbonate prices truly stabilize.

Last week, polysilicon futures prices showed a rebound trend, closing higher for two consecutive trading days. On May 9, the most-traded PS2506 polysilicon futures contract closed at 38,175 yuan/mt, with a daily increase of 5.7%. Li Xiangying, an analyst at Guosen Futures, believes that the recent rise in polysilicon futures prices is a correction of the previous oversold conditions. "The polysilicon futures prices were previously oversold, falling below the cash cost line of enterprises and trading at a significant discount to spot quotes," Li explained. The spot quote for polysilicon is around 37,000 yuan/mt for mixed-grade material, while the delivery brand for polysilicon futures is higher-quality dense material. Although the supply and demand situation for polysilicon has not improved, there is upward momentum after the oversold prices. "The time period for the market-oriented reform of new energy electricity prices is approaching, and the rapid contraction of end-user order demand has triggered expectations of negative feedback in the industry," said Wang Yanqing, an analyst at China Securities Futures. The fundamental situation of polysilicon remains weak, leading to the previous decline in futures prices below the cash cost line of mainstream enterprises. Therefore, the current futures prices have some correction momentum. From the perspective of the industry's cost curve, Zheng Feifan, an analyst of non-ferrous metals and new materials at CITIC Futures Research Institute, introduced that at the beginning of 2024, the cash cost line for the most advanced 1.5 million mt of capacity in the industry was around 42,000 yuan/mt, mainly from several leading manufacturers. With technological progress and a decline in raw material prices, by the end of 2024, the cash cost line for the most advanced 1.5 million mt of capacity in the industry had fallen to around 38,000 yuan/mt. In 2025, polysilicon production processes are expected to continue to be optimized, with costs potentially falling further, and the cash cost line is expected to drop to 33,000-34,000 yuan/mt. In addition, the registration of polysilicon warrants is still in its early stages, and the quality requirements for delivery brands are high. The deliverable resources in the market are relatively concentrated, with spot and warrant factors supporting near-month prices, resulting in a "backwardation structure" in the futures market. As the delivery time for the PS2506 contract approaches, the market is also watching whether the futures market can alleviate the high inventory pressure in the spot market. According to SMM data, as of the week ending May 9, the social inventory of polysilicon was 257,000 mt, down 1.9% WoW, but still at a high level. "When the absolute price falls below the key level of 35,000 yuan/mt, the market believes it has fallen below the industry's average theoretical cash cost, which may indirectly affect the speed at which spot inventory is transferred to the futures market," said Liu Yixian, an analyst at Hongze Research. Currently, downstream demand for polysilicon is low, and the market is showing an active destocking pattern. From the perspective of the supply-demand gap in the production schedule for "polysilicon-wafers," although polysilicon is currently in a slow destocking phase, inventory levels in the polysilicon segment remain high, with spot cargo still being sold at a volume discount. From a fundamental perspective, domestic polysilicon production remained at a low level of 95,000 mt in April. Zheng Feifan believes that polysilicon companies are currently operating at a loss overall, and supply is expected to remain tight in May. However, the market still has some concerns about production resumptions at major plants during the rainy season. On the demand side, production scheduling for solar cells and modules remained high in March and April, driving a rebound in the operating rate of silicon wafers. However, crystal pulling enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventories, resulting in relatively limited procurement of polysilicon. The PV "installation rush" in May may come to an end. Looking ahead, Li Xiangying stated that the current fundamental situation for polysilicon remains unfavorable, with little improvement expected in the short-term weakness of demand. The trend in spot prices will depend more on supply-side adjustments to the operating rate. "Futures price trends follow changes in supply and demand, as well as cost conditions in the spot market." Li Xiangying believes that, in the absence of significant changes in the supply-demand pattern, polysilicon spot prices are likely to continue fluctuating around the cost line. "From the current market trading logic, polysilicon futures prices may have short-term rebound momentum, with potential expectations for production cuts also providing support to the futures market." Wang Yanqing cautioned that overall polysilicon inventories remain high, and there is significant downward pressure on prices from downstream buyers, leading to sluggish spot transactions. Under the negative feedback from the industry chain, the upside room for polysilicon prices is limited.

The Progress of This Week's Recycling Incident Was as Follows:

【Idemitsu Kosan to Build New Lithium Sulphide Plant in Japan】 On March 3, Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. (Tokyo) announced plans to invest approximately 21.3 billion yen to establish a world-class large-scale lithium sulphide (Li₂S) production facility at its Chiba plant. This material is a key intermediate for manufacturing all-solid state lithium-ion batteries. The company plans to increase its capacity to a scale equivalent to 3 GWh of ESS batteries annually and establish a vertically integrated industry chain from raw materials to intermediates and final products. This move aims to meet the demand for the commercialization of all-solid state batteries by automakers and battery producers in 2027-2028, accelerating the adoption of solid electrolyte technology. According to the plan, the large-scale lithium sulphide facility is expected to be completed in June 2027. The project has been certified under Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's "Battery Supply Chain Enhancement Project," with approximately 7.1 billion yen of the total investment coming from the maximum government subsidy. Source: Chemical Engineering 【American Salars Lithium Expands Argentina Lithium Project by 1,635%】 On March 3, Canadian exploration company American Salars Lithium announced that it had reached a tentative agreement with an independent third party to acquire up to 100% equity in the Salar De Pocitos Project in Salta Province, Argentina. This acquisition will enable the company to increase its lithium ore assets in the "Lithium Triangle" region by 1,635%, making it the second-largest resource holder in the Salar De Pocitos. Under the agreement, American Salars Lithium will initially acquire a 75% stake and can increase to full ownership by paying a total of $2 million (approximately 2.89 million Canadian dollars) in cash and issuing 20 million shares. The transaction includes royalties, acquisition premium terms, and a 10% intermediary commission. The acquisition covers 10 mining rights spanning approximately 13,080 hectares, contiguous with the company's flagship project—the 800-hectare Pocitos 1 lithium salt lake project, which was fully acquired from Recharge Resources in June 2024. The company's CEO, Nick Horsley, stated: "This acquisition marks a strategic breakthrough for our team and will fundamentally reshape the company's development trajectory. Through discussions with top global lithium mining companies, we have precisely identified the core elements of resource acquisition and capacity building. The newly acquired mining area provides ample scope for our engineering and technical teams." The Pocitos 1 project currently holds 760,000 mt of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) resources compliant with NI 43-101 standards. For the newly acquired assets, the company will initiate data integration to update resource assessments, followed by scoping and feasibility studies to achieve commercial production. The project boasts significant locational advantages, being adjacent to Provincial Route 17 and equipped with natural gas pipelines and rail connections to the Port of Antofagasta, Chile, via the Pocitos Industrial Park. In terms of strategic adjustments, the company announced the termination of its option for the Candela Phase II project at the Incahuasi Salt Lake in Bolivia, a move seen as a major decision to focus resources on the Argentine lithium belt. Source: Mining Technology 【Trojan Battery Co. Launches New Range-Extending Lithium Battery Pack】 Recently, global ESS giant Trojan Battery Co. officially launched a groundbreaking product—the 48V 171Ah integrated range-extending lithium battery pack (Trojan Lithium OnePack XR). This product redefines energy standards for low-speed EVs with "multi-layer safety architecture + ultra-long driving range," offering comprehensive power solutions for recreational vehicles such as 6-8 seat golf carts. Key Technological Innovations Driving Range Revolution: Single-charge range of 75 miles (approximately 120 km), a 300% improvement over traditional lead-acid batteries. Low-Voltage Safety: 48V low-voltage platform avoids safety risks associated with systems above 60V, certified by UL safety standards. Smart Control Ecosystem: Paired with the Trojan SmartBattery app for real-time battery status monitoring via mobile devices. Worry-Free Warranty: Industry-first 8-year extended warranty, eliminating the need for regular maintenance of traditional batteries. Plug-and-Play: Equipped with vehicle-specific brackets, power display modules, and multi-specification chargers in an all-in-one package. The company's Chief Commercial Officer, Laurie Oswald, emphasized: "A century of technological expertise underpins the product's robust performance. The launch of OnePack XR precisely addresses the surging demand in emerging markets for mobility vehicles in retirement communities and scenic areas, helping to solidify our global leadership in the specialty EV market." Source: Golfdom 【Korean Battery Makers Race to Develop Lithium Metal Anodes – EcoPro, POSCO, LG Energy Solution Innovate Lighter, Faster-Charging Batteries】 Recently, to enhance energy density, Korean battery and materials companies have intensified efforts to develop lithium metal anodes. While past innovations primarily focused on increasing nickel content in cathodes, this approach has reached its limits, driving the need for advancements in anode materials. Compared to traditional graphite-based anodes, lithium metal anodes offer higher energy density, enabling lighter batteries and faster charging. According to industry news on March 5, EcoPro will unveil its lithium metal anode development plans at the 2025 International Battery Expo held at COEX in Seoul, running through March 7. This marks the company's first official announcement regarding lithium metal anodes. EcoPro stated that its subsidiary, EcoPro Innovation, is collaborating with Canada's Hydro-Québec to develop lithium metal technology and plans to establish a lithium sulphide production line for solid-state batteries by 2026. POSCO Future M has also entered the lithium metal anode market through the N.EX.T Hub research institute under POSCO Holdings. As the only domestic company producing both natural and synthetic graphite anodes, it is committed to expanding its product portfolio, including lithium metal anodes, to enhance competitiveness. Source: Batteries News 【Rio Tinto Completes $6.7 Billion Acquisition of Arcadium Lithium】 On March 6, diversified mining giant Rio Tinto successfully completed its $6.7 billion acquisition of Arcadium Lithium. The transaction received formal approval from the Royal Court of Jersey on Wednesday, marking the official integration of Arcadium Lithium into Rio Tinto's portfolio. The newly acquired entity will operate under the name Rio Tinto Lithium. This acquisition further strengthens Rio Tinto's leadership in the energy transition materials market and expands its asset portfolio to include one of the world's premier lithium resource bases. Leveraging Arcadium Lithium's high-quality assets and the Rincon lithium mine project, Rio Tinto Lithium aims to increase its annual lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production capacity to over 200,000 mt by 2028. Looking ahead, the company expects to benefit from technological synergies and geographic diversification, which are anticipated to significantly boost EBITDA and operating cash flow in the coming years. Source: Mining Weekly 【Sapura Industrial Partners With Chinese Lithium Battery Company to Establish Battery Plant in Malaysia】 On March 6, Malaysian company Sapura Industrial Bhd announced a collaboration plan with Chinese lithium battery manufacturer Zhejiang Zhongze Precision Technology Co., Ltd. to jointly establish a factory in Malaysia focused on producing industrial and commercial battery components. According to a filing submitted by Sapura Industrial to the stock exchange on Thursday, its wholly-owned subsidiary, SIB Ventures Sdn Bhd, has signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Zhejiang Zhongze, marking the formal initiation of their partnership. Sapura Industrial emphasized that the MOU provides a framework for in-depth negotiations on potential collaboration and includes plans for a joint feasibility study on constructing the manufacturing facility. The company further stated: "The realization of this collaboration is contingent upon both parties reaching a consensus on the business plan, after which negotiations will proceed to finalize an agreement detailing further terms, rights, and obligations of each party." Overall, Sapura Industrial and Zhejiang Zhongze are expected to finalize the agreement within the next six months. Source: The Edge

[EPC Bidding for the 3.354MW/6.709MWh Distributed Energy Storage Project in Huai'an, Jiangsu] On July 17, Huai'an ENN Energy Technology Co., Ltd. issued a tender announcement for the EPC general contracting project of the 3.354MW-6.709MWh distributed energy storage project of Huai'an Jiajia Glass Products Co., Ltd. The project is located in Hongze District, Huai'an City, Jiangsu Province, aiming to build a distributed energy storage system with a capacity of 3.354MW-6.709MWh within the plant area of Huai'an Jiajia Glass Products Co., Ltd. The high-voltage 10kV system will be connected to the original power distribution system in the plant area, equipped with two high-voltage cabinets.