According to SMM’s latest tracking, the total planned volume of cold-rolled commercial products for this month across 31 mainstream cold-rolled coil steel mills was 4.073 million mt, up 257,500 mt from last month’s actual production of cold-rolled commercial products, an increase of 6.7%.

SMM Cold-rolled Production Schedule: Increasing Pressure from Orders & Profitability; MoM Decline in Cold-rolled Production Schedule of Steel Mills in May According to the latest SMM survey, the total planned production volume of cold-rolled commercial materials for 31 mainstream steel mills producing cold-rolled coils in May was 4.3248 million mt, a decrease of 128,700 mt or 2.89% compared to the actual production volume of cold-rolled commercial materials in April. On a daily average basis, there was one more day in May than in April, with a daily average planned production volume of 139,500 mt, representing a 6.02% MoM decline from the actual daily average production volume in April. Table 1: Planned Production Volume of Cold-rolled Commercial Materials for 31 Mainstream Cold-rolled Steel Mills Source: SMM Steel SMM Hot-rolled Production Schedule: Additional Maintenance at Some Steel Mills; Slight MoM Decline in Hot-rolled Production Schedule in April According to the latest SMM survey, the total planned production volume of hot-rolled commercial materials for 39 mainstream steel mills producing hot-rolled coils in May was 14.1287 million mt, an increase of 55,800 mt or 0.4% compared to the actual production volume of hot-rolled commercial materials in April. On a daily average basis, there was one more day in May than in April, with a daily average planned production volume of 455,800 mt for hot-rolled commercial materials in May, representing a decrease of 13,300 mt or 2.8% from the actual daily average production volume of hot-rolled commercial materials in April. Chart-1: Planned Production Volume of Hot-rolled Commercial Materials for New Sample of Hot-rolled Steel Mills This month, the total planned production volume of hot-rolled commercial materials for 52 mainstream steel mills producing hot-rolled coils, after the expansion of SMM's sample, was 17.4987 million mt, with a 0.8% increase in daily average planned production volume compared to the actual production volume in April. In mid-to-late April, the profitability of steel mills producing both hot-rolled and cold-rolled products pulled back slightly on a MoM basis. Coupled with the upcoming off-season in downstream consumption, some steel mills adopted a cautious stance on the future market outlook, with generally low enthusiasm for increasing production. Additionally, some steel mills announced new maintenance schedules, leading to a MoM decline in the daily average production schedule for both hot-rolled and cold-rolled products in May. Source: SMM Steel Domestic vs. Export Trade: Domestic Trade: The planned production volume of hot-rolled coils for domestic trade in May was 12.9627 million mt, with a daily average of 418,200 mt, representing a decrease of 13,300 mt or 3.1% from the actual domestic daily average production volume in April. In May, some steel mills announced new maintenance schedules, coupled with the upcoming off-season in downstream consumption, making it difficult for steel mills to have the willingness to increase production. As a result, the planned production volume of hot-rolled coils for domestic trade in May pulled back on a MoM basis. Table 2: Comparison of Order Taking at Some Steel Mills Surveyed by SMM Source: SMM Steel According to the SMM survey, as of May 8, most sample steel mills had already filled their domestic trade orders. The order taking for hot-rolled products in domestic trade was moderate this month, not yet affected by the off-season. However, some steel mills voluntarily controlled their order volumes due to production cuts. Additionally, the pressure on order taking for cold-rolled products further increased at some steel mills.SMM will continue to monitor the subsequent order-taking situation. Foreign trade: The planned HRC exports for May are 1.166 million mt, an increase of 36,000 mt compared to the actual exports in April, representing a MoM increase of 3.2%. The planned HRC exports for domestic steel mills in May show relatively small fluctuations compared to the actual exports in April. With the ongoing escalation of the tariff war, many enterprises are actively exploring other markets. According to the SMM survey, many steel mills had already filled their export shipment orders for May by mid-to-late April, and the export volume from steel mills in May is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Chart-2: Comparison of HRC export prices in major global markets Chart-3: Planned HRC commodity material exports for mainstream steel mills in the HRC sample Data source: SMM Steel In terms of maintenance, the impact from HRC maintenance in May is temporarily estimated at 784,200 mt, an increase of 38,900 mt compared to the previous month. The announced maintenance activities are mainly concentrated in steel mills in east China, north China, and western regions. SMM will continue to monitor the subsequent situation. For specific maintenance details, please refer to the following table: Table-3: Details of HRC steel mill maintenance Data source: SMM Steel Regarding profitability, based on the SMM survey of real-time profits from steel mills producing HRC, the current real-time profits of most steel mills are concentrated in the range of 100 yuan/mt and above, showing a decrease compared to the level in early April. In detail, about 5% of steel mills reported current losses exceeding 100 yuan/mt; 9% reported losses in the range of 50-100 yuan/mt; 14% were at the break-even point; 27% reported profits in the range of 50-150 yuan/mt; and 45% reported profits exceeding 100 yuan/mt. Chart-4: Real-time profitability of HRC production at some steel mills surveyed by SMM Summary: The planned daily average HRC production for domestic steel mills in May shows a slight MoM decrease compared to the actual production in April. On one hand, some steel mills have added new equipment maintenance. Additionally, as the downstream consumption off-season approaches, most steel mills have low willingness to increase production. Looking ahead, in terms of demand, entering May, downstream demand will be impacted to a certain extent by the off-season, and it is expected that the apparent demand for HRC will pull back MoM in May. In terms of supply, the HRC production schedule for May shows a slight MoM decrease compared to April, slightly better than previously expected. Overall, entering the off-season, downstream demand is slowly pulling back. Coupled with the expectation that the Sino-US tariff negotiations are unlikely to reach a conclusion in the short term, and the periodic fermentation of rumors about production restrictions on the domestic supply side, uncertainties in the macro and industrial news have increased. It is expected that HRC prices will continue to face downward pressure in the short term. During the verification process of off-season demand, if there is a lack of favourable macro front to drive the market, there is potential for further downward movement in HRC prices.

[SMM HRC & CRC Production Schedule Report: Impact of Maintenance, March Daily Average Production of CRC and HRC Both Pulled Back] According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned production of commercial cold-rolled coil (CRC) by 31 mainstream steel mills in March totaled 4.2753 million mt, an increase of 52,900 mt or 1.3% compared to the actual CRC production in February. On a daily average basis, with three more days in March than February, the daily planned production was 137,900 mt, down 8.5% MoM from the actual daily average production in February. According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned production of commercial hot-rolled coil (HRC) by 39 mainstream steel mills in March totaled 13.5438 million mt, a decrease of 203,700 mt or 1.5% compared to the actual HRC production in February. On a daily average basis, with three more days in March than February, the daily planned production of HRC was 436,900 mt, down 54,100 mt or 11.0% MoM from the actual daily average production in February.

This week, SMM statistics showed that the HRC social inventory across 86 warehouses nationwide (large sample) reached 3.8517 million mt, up 756,800 mt WoW (+24.45%) and down 25.03% YoY based on the lunar calendar. In the first week after the holiday, social inventories nationwide increased, with more significant inventory buildup in the east, south, and north China markets. [SMM Steel]

[SMM HRC & CRC Production Schedule Report: Robust Orders, February HRC and CRC Daily Production Schedules Both Increase!] According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned February HRC commodity production volume of 39 mainstream steel mills totals 13.8055 million mt, down 316,600 mt or 2.2% from the actual HRC commodity production volume in January. On a daily average basis, the planned February HRC commodity production volume is 493,100 mt/day, up 37,500 mt or 8.2% from the actual daily average HRC production in January. According to the latest tracking by SMM, the planned February CRC commodity production volume of 31 mainstream steel mills totals 4.2424 million mt, down 60,600 mt or 1.4% from the actual CRC commodity production volume in January. On a daily average basis, February has fewer days, and the daily planned production volume is 151,500 mt, up 9.2% MoM from the actual daily average production in January.

SHANGHAI, Jun 13 (SMM) – HRC futures prices closed down 0.82% at 3763 yuan/mt yesterday June 12.

On the supply side, due to the active resumption of production of domestic HRC steel mills from January to February, the average daily output continued to rise month-on-month.

Downstream and terminal companies held a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

Prices of leading iron ore futures rebounded after falling last Friday and the most-traded 2305 contract finally closed at 863.5 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.76%.