This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

The Italian steel group Marcegaglia signed an agreement on April 15, 2026, with technology partner Danieli to construct a new steel mill in Fos-sur-Mer, France. Known as the "Mistral" project, the total investment is estimated at €1 billion, with the plant expected to produce over 2 million tons of steel annually via Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology and up to 3 million tons of hot-rolled coil (HRC). Utilizing scrap metal and low-carbon Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) powered by nuclear and renewable energy, the facility aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 80% compared to traditional blast furnace routes.

【SMM Steel】On Apr 10, 2026, the Guixin Steel Indonesia project, a JV between Guangxi Guixin Steel Group and Tsingshan Holding Group, was fully commissioned at the Tsingshan Industrial Park in Central Sulawesi. The project involved converting a former nickel-iron BF into a 1,216m³ carbon steel BF. The facility includes a 210㎡ sinter plant, two 12㎡ shaft furnace pelletizing units, a 100T BOF, and full-process CC & HR lines. It will produce >1.8 Mt/y of quality steel billets/products. SMM understands it currently mainly produces slabs, with billets expected in August and HRC later. The capacity will fill regional carbon steel gaps and impact semi-finished/flat steel trade flows in SE Asia.

[SMM Steel] Vietnam steel consumption showed strong domestic growth in early 2026, with construction steel up 39% YoY and HRC surging 214% YoY, driven mainly by local demand . Meanwhile, exports declined, especially for coated steel (-45% YoY), due to increasing trade barriers in markets like the EU. In the short term, strong domestic demand is offsetting export weakness, supporting sales and prices, while coated steel segments remain under pressure.

[SMM Steel] Marcegaglia, in partnership with Danieli, plans to invest €1 billion in a new EAF-based steel plant in Fos-sur-Mer, France. The facility is designed to produce >2 million mt of steel and up to 3 million mt of HRC annually. In the short term, the project signals future supply expansion and a shift toward low-carbon steel, though no immediate market impact is expected before final approval.

[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On April 15, the combined daily HRC trading volume of SMM's sample enterprises across four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, and Ningbo) totaled 16,200 mt, up 810 mt DoD (+5.3%), up 46.74% YoY (solar calendar), and up 19.21% YoY (lunar calendar).

Lecong HRC inventory this week was 850,300 mt, down 66,100 mt WoW, a decrease of 7.21%; up 1.58% YoY (solar calendar), down 7.99% YoY (solar calendar).

Shanghai HRC inventory this week was 577,100 mt, down 17,400 mt WoW, a decrease of 2.93%; up 72.68% YoY (solar calendar), up 62.75% YoY (lunar calendar).

Zhangjiagang HRC port inventories stood at 362,000 mt this week, down 13,000 mt WoW, a decline of 3.47%. The YoY decline was 11.71% on a solar calendar basis and 13.60% on a lunar calendar basis.

SMM Express: China's steel export prices remained stable today, with most shipments scheduled for May to June. Intraday market inquiries were active, and HRC order-taking also improved recently, with most deals concluded at $480-485/mt, while some transactions in North China were closed at $475/mt. Billet performance remained steady, while slab trading volume saw a significant increase, mostly concentrated among private enterprises.