Entering the second half of March, regional divergence in China’s aluminum market became increasingly pronounced, with the divergence between inventory trends and spot price spreads in east China and south China intensifying. On the one hand, the nationwide post-holiday inventory buildup in aluminum gradually approached its end, inventory overhang pressure in east China continued to ease, circulation efficiency steadily improved, the inventory buildup momentum slowed down significantly, and.....

Before and after the Chinese New Year, the domestic spot aluminum market exhibited significant regional differentiation, with the spot price spread between South China (Foshan) and East China (Wuxi) drawing particular attention. Before the holiday, the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread reached a high of 150 yuan/mt on February 10, while by February 27 after the holiday, this spread had narrowed significantly to 10 yuan/mt.....

In terms of aluminum billet inventory, according to SMM statistics, the domestic aluminum billet inventory in major consumption areas stood at 127,500 mt on June 12, a decrease of 2,000 mt from Monday and a decline of 2,500 mt WoW, still hovering around 130,000 mt. In the past week, the regional distribution of aluminum billet inventory has shown divergence. In the Wuxi area, there was still an increase in warehouse arrivals, but poor market transactions exacerbated the local inventory buildup. In the Nanchang area, due to the persistently high Shanghai-Guangdong price spread, more billets were transported from the billet plants around South China to the Nanchang area, leading to an increase in local inventory, while arrivals in the Guangdong area were relatively low. In terms of outflows from warehouses, the total outflows from public warehouses of aluminum billets in China during the period from June 3 to June 8 amounted to 36,400 mt, a decrease of 1,200 mt from the previous period.

In terms of aluminum billet inventory, according to SMM statistics, as of May 29, the inventory of aluminum billets in major domestic consumption areas reached 128,300 mt, a decrease of 1,900 mt from Monday this week and a decrease of 2,500 mt WoW from Thursday last week. Despite signs of a slowdown in the destocking of aluminum billet inventory, the overall inventory still hovered around 130,000 mt, a low level compared to the same period in the past three years, indicating that inventory levels remained relatively low. From the perspective of outflows from warehouses data, the total outflows from warehouses of domestic aluminum billets during the period from May 20 to May 25 was 44,600 mt, a decrease of 4,900 mt WoW and a decrease of 7,300 mt YoY. Affected by the continuous impact of truck shipments, shipments showed little sign of improvement, indicating a significant weakening in the trading activity of the aluminum billet market and a growing off-season atmosphere. From a regional perspective, there was a gradual increasing trend in the arrival of aluminum billets in the Wuxi area, as manufacturers increased shipments to warehouses due to weakened downstream consumption. Meanwhile, the current Guangdong-Shanghai price spread had widened to 150 yuan/mt, and the price difference of "strong in the east and weak in the south" may promote the flow of aluminum billets between regions. It is necessary to continue to monitor the pace of changes in domestic consumption and the changes in the Guangdong-Shanghai price spread.

As the Lantern Festival approaches, the joy of the New Year fills our hearts. Most traders in the aluminum industry have resumed work this week, and downstream enterprises are expected to enter a peak period of resumption of work and production. Let us take a look at the aluminum inventory performance in the first week after the Chinese New Year: According to SMM statistics, as of February 10, 2025, the total domestic aluminum inventory (aluminum ingot + aluminum billet) tracked by SMM reached 1.0235 million mt, surpassing the 1 million mt mark. This represents an increase of 95,000 mt (10.2%) compared to the first day after the holiday (February 5) and an increase of 308,000 mt compared to pre-holiday levels (January 27). Observing the YoY inventory buildup data for the first week after the Chinese New Year, the increase exceeded last year's 82,000 mt and 9.1% growth. The inventory buildup in the first week after the holiday continued the slightly higher trend observed during the Chinese New Year holiday period...

As the Lantern Festival approaches, the joy of the New Year fills our hearts. Most traders in the aluminum industry have resumed work this week, and downstream enterprises are expected to enter a peak period of resumption of work and production. Let us take a look at the aluminum inventory performance in the first week after the Chinese New Year: According to SMM statistics, as of February 10, 2025, the total domestic aluminum inventory (aluminum ingot + aluminum billet) tracked by SMM reached 1.0235 million mt, surpassing the 1 million mt mark. This represents an increase of 95,000 mt (10.2%) compared to the first day after the holiday (February 5) and an increase of 308,000 mt compared to the pre-holiday level (January 27). Observing the YoY data for inventory buildup in the first week after the Chinese New Year, the increase exceeded last year's 82,000 mt and 9.1% growth. The inventory buildup in the first week after the holiday continued the slightly higher trend observed during the Chinese New Year holiday period...

After the eight-day national statutory Chinese New Year holiday, let's focus on the aluminum inventory performance freshly released on the first day after the holiday: According to SMM statistics, as of February 5, 2025, the total domestic aluminum inventory (aluminum ingots + aluminum billets) tracked by SMM reached 929,000 mt, an increase of 213,000 mt (29.8%) compared to pre-holiday levels (January 27), which aligns overall with expectations. On a YoY basis, the increase and growth rate (211,000 mt and 30.6%, respectively) showed relatively small differences compared to the same period last year, with no anomalies observed. Over the past seven years, the average post-Chinese New Year inventory buildup in domestic aluminum has been 210,000 mt, with an average growth rate of 24.2%. From this perspective, this year's aluminum inventory buildup is slightly higher, primarily due to...

Mid-week, the domestic aluminum ingot market saw significant destocking against the trend, undoubtedly exceeding most expectations. According to SMM statistics, as of January 9, 2024, the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 459,000 mt, with the domestic available aluminum inventory at 333,000 mt, down by 36,000 mt compared to Monday and 28,000 mt compared to Thursday. Meanwhile, despite the seemingly "belated" performance of SHFE aluminum...

In terms of aluminum ingot inventory, as shipments in the Xinjiang region have basically returned to normal since late December, the backlog within the region, apart from the normal in-plant inventory and station turnover inventory, has been largely consumed. Entering January, according to SMM statistics, as of January 6, 2024, SMM reported a domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots at 495,000 mt...

[SMM Analysis: Calm and Steady! The Decline in Domestic Primary Aluminum Billet Production in December Was Less Than Expected] Although the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum semis officially took effect in December, coupled with a strong off-season atmosphere in downstream sectors, the operating performance on the supply side of domestic aluminum billets was already anticipated to be impacted. However, due to the sluggish aluminum prices during the month and the influence of multiple factors, the demand side for aluminum billets remained stable with a weak trend, allowing aluminum billet processing fees to stand firm at high levels, which led some aluminum billet enterprises to increase rather than reduce their operating rates. The daily average production of domestic primary aluminum billets decreased by 2,000 mt MoM to around 47,000 mt/day...