Sources revealed that Panama and First Quantum were about to reach an agreement on the Cobre Copper Mine.

As of Friday March 10, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at $76.29/mt, $1.35/mt lower than March 3. During the week, the spot transaction of copper concentrate was quite active. There were many spot transactions of clean ore between mines and smelters.

[Freeport Expected to Resume Copper Concentrate Exports from Indonesia This Month] According to foreign media reports on February 13, two informed sources revealed that Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is expected to resume shipments of copper concentrates from Indonesia this month under a new export permit, after the previous permit expired in December. A source directly familiar with the matter stated that the miner will begin loading cargo on Friday and is expected to obtain the export permit by month-end. Another source said that copper concentrates shipped from the company's Grasberg mine are expected to be exported by the end of February. (Webstock Inc.)

As of Friday February 17, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at $78.23/mt, $1.15/mt lower than February 10.

After returning from the Chinese New Year holiday, Q4 reports from listed miners outside China have been released one after another recently. 2025 was a period of concentrated release of new capacity at mines outside China. What was the specific situation? What are the expectations for 2026? Let us analyze it by enterprise.

Since the end of 2022, frequent interference accidents affected the copper concentrate spot market.

According to Reuters, Freeport Indonesia CEO Tony Wenas said on Tuesday that the company would need to reduce ore production by 40% in 2024 if copper concentrate is not allowed to be exported before the smelter reaches full capacity.

[SMM Analysis: The Old Is Gone, Everything Is New - SMM Copper Concentrates Supply-Demand Balance Table Released] 2024 has passed, and SMM has released the global copper concentrates supply-demand balance table for 2021-2030 based on publicly available data sources and the latest project progress.

[SMM Analysis:Overview of Q4 Copper Production of the Top 20 Global Mining Companies in 2025] According to SMM statistics, copper production by the world's top 20 mining companies in the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at 3,526 kt, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 10.5% decrease year-on-year.

This week's core impact stemmed from the nearly two-week full shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia following a mudslide accident on September 8. Freeport estimated that copper sales volumes in Q4 2025 would nearly stagnate, and 2026 production could be approximately 35% lower than previous forecasts, sparking market concerns about a significant contraction in global copper ore supply. Copper prices surged over 3% during the night session, hitting a new yearly high. On the macro front, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association emphasized opposition to "involutionary" competition in smelting, deepening supply worries. However, the US Q2 GDP was significantly revised up to 3.8%, and initial jobless claims also came in lower than expected, reinforcing expectations of US economic resilience. The US dollar index rose sharply, putting a cap on the rise in copper prices. Overall, supply-side disruptions and macro policy dynamics are intertwined, leading to significantly increased short-term copper price volatility, with both high-level risks and support present. This week, LME copper broke to a new high, touching the $10,500/mt level mid-week, while SHFE copper also rose to a yearly high, generally fluctuating around 83,000 yuan/mt. On the fundamentals side, spot trading for copper concentrates was inactive this week, with the spot TC holding around negative $40/mt. Arrivals of imported copper were flat compared to last week, and trading among traders was also sluggish. Downstream consumption was noticeably weak due to the surge in copper prices, resulting in a very subdued pre-holiday stockpiling atmosphere. The weekly operating rate of processing enterprises was poor, and spot premiums declined steadily. Looking ahead to next week, with only two trading days, macro front information is expected to be relatively quiet. Market trading will likely remain focused on mine production disruptions and macro policies. LME copper is forecast to fluctuate between $10,200/mt and $10,400/mt, while SHFE copper is expected to move between 81,500 yuan/mt and 83,000 yuan/mt. On the spot side, the sluggish atmosphere is expected to persist next week, with weak pre-holiday demand. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2510 contract are anticipated to range from a discount of 80 yuan/mt to a premium of 120 yuan/mt.