Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,895.5/mt. After the opening, prices quickly fell to $1,885.5/mt, then fluctuate rangebound within the $1,888–1,896.5/mt range, with a balanced tug-of-war between longs and shorts and cautious market sentiment. After 0:00, prices rose further, breaking above the previous trading range and touching a high of $1,901/mt, before finally closing at $1,898.5/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up $0/mt, or 0.0%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at a low of 16,420 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices rose rapidly, then saw wide swings within the 16,440–16,481 yuan/mt range, with an evident tug-of-war between longs and shorts. Intraday volatility narrowed, and prices gradually stabilized around 16,455–16,465 yuan/mt, while trading volume pulled back simultaneously and market sentiment turned cautious. Late in the session, SHFE lead broke upward again, touching a high of 16,500 yuan/mt, then quickly pulled back to finally close at 16,470 yuan/mt. A small bullish candlestick was recorded, up 50 yuan/mt, or 0.3%. On the macro front: 1. Poll: Trump’s approval rating fell to its lowest level since returning to the White House. 2. US media: The US Department of Justice admitted it lacked evidence in its investigation into Powell. 3. Turkey considered using its $135 billion gold reserves to defend the lira. 4. Israeli media: The US intended to seek a one-month ceasefire to discuss a 15-point agreement with Iran. 5. Goldman Sachs maintained its overweight recommendation on Chinese equities (A-shares and Hong Kong stocks). Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead remained in the doldrums, while suppliers held prices firm on shipments. Quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly in spot premiums, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead plants changed little. Mainstream producing areas quoted premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price, with a few quoting premiums of 100 yuan/mt ex-works. On the secondary lead side, some secondary lead enterprises had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 0-75 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining. In addition, as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order purchases tilted toward primary lead. Inventory: As of March 24, LME lead inventory fell by 725 mt, or 0.26%, to 283,350 mt. As of March 23, SMM social inventory of lead ingot across five regions pulled back somewhat from previous inventory at high levels. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: Supply side, primary lead smelters held firm offers, and spot premiums in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai were raised slightly, while quotations for cargoes self-picked up from production site at primary lead smelters changed little. Some secondary lead smelters had maintenance plans, and circulating cargoes in the spot market were limited. Demand side, downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed, but some engaged in more bargaining, and as secondary lead prices inverted against primary lead, spot order procurement tilted toward primary lead. According to SMM analysis, SHFE lead prices were likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Morning Zinc Briefing: Stronger US Dollar Index Put LME Zinc Under Pressure and Slightly Lower]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,095/mt. After the opening, LME zinc fluctuated downward along the daily average line, hitting an intraday high of $3,097/mt. Near the close, LME zinc fell to a low of $3,027/mt, and finally closed down at $3,038.5/mt, down $64.5/mt, a decline of 2.08%, while trading volume decreased to 11,298 lots...

Despite recent outflows, expert says decade-long gold surge still has legs.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro and Fundamentals Present Mixed Signals, Aluminum Prices Expected to Consolidate] Overall, amid earlier macro headwinds, substantial capital took profits and exited the market, leading to a pullback in aluminum prices and a decline in open interest. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate.

On October 6 local time, US President Trump claimed that progress had been made in resolving the government shutdown. However, on the same day, the US Senate held a vote on a new temporary funding bill, and proposals from both the Democratic and Republican parties were once again rejected, prolonging the federal government shutdown. Goldman Sachs predicts that although the shutdown may last for several weeks, it is unlikely to extend beyond October 15, the military payday, because if the shutdown continues by then, active-duty military personnel will miss their entire paycheck. A major point of contention between the two parties revolves around the healthcare subsidy bill set to expire on November 1. Goldman Sachs believes that if Trump signals a willingness to discuss health-related issues, the Democrats are likely to accept and agree to at least a short-term reopening of the government.

The escalation of conflicts between Israel and Iran has strengthened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. Silver, as a precious metal with both safe-haven and industrial attributes, has become an alternative choice for capital to seek refuge amid the backdrop of gold's trend being suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index on June 17. At the end of May, the gold-silver ratio once broke through the historical extreme of 1:100, far exceeding the previous long-term average of 60-80, indicating that silver was severely undervalued. The demand for silver's valuation repair has supported its price. The long-term trend of the global silver supply-demand gap provides underlying support for silver prices. As the most-traded SHFE silver contract technically broke through the round-number threshold of 9,000 yuan/kg, it attracted more market capital inflows, pushing silver prices to repeatedly hit new highs. As of around 15:19 on June 18, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose by 2.35%, closing at 9,045 yuan/kg, and refreshing its historical high since listing to 9,075 yuan/kg...

At 2:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the US Fed will announce its interest rate decision and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell at 2:30 AM. The market generally expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to maintain interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. A recent Reuters survey showed that 103 out of 105 economists surveyed expected rates to remain unchanged, while 2 expected a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. In the same survey, among the 105 economists, 59 predicted that the US Fed would resume interest rate cuts in the next quarter (possibly in September), while 60% of economists expected two interest rate cuts this year, consistent with the median dot plot in March and relatively aligned with money market pricing, which anticipates a 46-basis-point easing by the end of the year. Newsquawk noted in its outlook that, given the ongoing uncertainty about the economic impact of Trump's tariff policies, the US Fed may continue to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach and closely monitor the latest SEP, which will be released alongside the interest rate decision; among which, the 2025 dot plot will be a key focus, currently indicating a 50-basis-point interest rate cut this year. As repeatedly emphasized by the vast majority of committee members this year, the clear message is that there is currently no obvious need for immediate policy adjustments, and adopting a patient approach is the best choice. Future data releases will ultimately bridge the divergent views on inflation and growth/employment. Therefore, as Jefferies Group pointed out, "waiting and seeing" is better than "pre-emptive action." Recent data have shown strong job growth and some easing of inflation, although tariff risks remain a concern, while the market is now also paying extra attention to the potential inflationary impact of the Israel-Iran conflict. Future data releases will be crucial for policy formulation . Policy Statement Officials may no longer say that uncertainty has "further increased," but will simply state that it "remains elevated." Regarding the June FOMC statement, Morgan Stanley believes that, given the high degree of uncertainty and the risks on both sides of the Fed's mandate, the most likely outcome is minimal changes in wording. The statement may still mention the ambiguous impact of net export fluctuations on overall GDP data signals. April's trade data showed a significant reversal in imports due to the reversal of some "front-loading" purchasing behavior. The US Fed will continue to draw signals from final sales to domestic purchasers (GDP minus trade and inventory) and final sales to domestic private purchasers (final sales to domestic purchasers minus government spending). Recently, inflation data have generally fallen short of expectations, which implies that there is a risk for committee members to revise the phrase "inflation remains elevated." In recent months, the YoY change rates for both headline and core inflation have declined slightly, consistent with further inflation declines prior to the tariffs. However, Morgan Stanley believes that the anticipated tariff effects, combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East and soaring oil prices, may keep the Fed's assessment of inflation unchanged. Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed has not yet reached a consensus on this matter ; if so, the key message in the statement will be that "uncertainty remains high." Summary of Economic Projections The Fed's meeting statement and Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference are expected to reiterate a wait-and-see stance, but the latest interest rate dot plot will directly reveal the FOMC's expectations for the number of interest rate cuts this year and beyond. UBS forecasts that Powell may emphasize the uncertainty of the economic outlook at the press conference, and even downplay the guidance role of the interest rate dot plot. However, UBS believes that the tone of this meeting will be relatively hawkish —the robust performance of non-farm payrolls data in May is sufficient to support the Fed in maintaining interest rates unchanged, and the duration of high interest rates may be longer than expected in March. Therefore, UBS expects the median interest rate for 2025 and 2026 to be raised. In addition, the June Summary of Economic Projections will more fully consider the impact of reciprocal tariffs compared to March, which may lead to further increases in inflation and unemployment rate expectations. Citi maintains its previous judgment, believing that the median of the dot plot will still show two interest rate cuts this year (each of 25 basis points). Goldman Sachs' economic model indicates that the effective tariff rate will ultimately rise by 14% , with over 9% coming from tariff measures already in effect and the remainder stemming from anticipated industry-specific or key imported goods tariffs to be implemented subsequently. Based on this assumption, and combined with the current limited policy transmission data, Goldman Sachs forecasts that core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation will rebound to a peak of 3.4%. More severely, reciprocal tariffs may lead to a nearly 1% decline in GDP growth this year by suppressing consumer spending and exacerbating uncertainty in corporate investment. If combined with the chain reactions of fiscal and immigration policy adjustments, the YoY GDP growth rate in Q4 2025 may slow down to 1.25% (below potential levels), with the unemployment rate rising by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4%. Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects the US Fed to slightly lower its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.5%, while raising its unemployment rate forecast for the same year to 4.5%. On inflation, the overall and core PCE inflation rates for 2025 may be revised to 3.0% and 2.3%, respectively. These adjustments reflect that, despite the moderate performance of recent economic growth, labour market, and inflation data, the upward pressure on tariff rates has significantly widened compared to the March meeting. Dot Plot Goldman Sachs anticipates that the US Fed will adopt a conservative stance on the dot plot. Although the median dot may indicate two interest rate cuts to 3.875% in 2025 and another two cuts to 3.375% in 2026, the voting distribution for 2025 is expected to be extremely tight —10 officials support two rate cuts, while the other nine lean towards only one cut or no cut at all. The bank also forecasts that the average interest rate expectations for 2025 and 2026 will be slightly revised upwards, as some officials may delay or cancel their interest rate cut plans for this year. Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase pointed out that, since the release of the March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), changes in trade policy have forced the US Fed to significantly adjust its economic outlook, as evidenced by the subtle changes in the wording of the May FOMC statement. JPMorgan Chase expects that, while the "stagflationary adjustment" does not explicitly guide the direction of the dot plot, the bank still believes that the overall tone will lean towards hawkishness —especially after Powell emphasized the priority of price stability at the May press conference, most members of the Committee may have shifted in tandem. JPMorgan Chase forecasts that interest rates will approach neutral levels by the end of 2027, while the median long-term neutral interest rate may be revised upwards by 0.125% to 3.125%. First Interest Rate Cut: December as the Last Line of Defense? Despite widespread market bets on an interest rate cut starting in September, Goldman Sachs maintains that the FOMC will conduct its first interest rate cut in December, followed by two more cuts in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3.5%-3.75%. Its rationale is that, apart from tariffs, recent inflation data have actually been weak—expected wage growth from surveys has fallen to 3.0%, and alternative indicators such as the increase in rents for new tenants have also pulled back to 2.0%, all suggesting that core PCE inflation may fall below 2.0%. However, the peak impact of summer tariffs on inflation coincides with the Fed's decision-making window, making action before December unlikely. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs recently lowered its probability of a recession within 12 months from a brief spike of 50% in early April to 30%, which is still double the historical average. After risk adjustment, the bank's probability-weighted interest rate forecast is broadly in line with market pricing, suggesting that current interest rate cut expectations have already fully priced in the potential risks of economic deterioration. Technical Analysis of Gold FXStreet analyst Dhwani Mehta stated that from a technical perspective, the bullish bias in gold prices remains intact as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays above the 50 midline, currently near 55. Gold prices have also successfully held above the previous strong resistance level (now turned support) of $3,377, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the record-breaking rally in April. If the outcome of the US Fed meeting is interpreted as hawkish, gold prices will need to find a firm foothold below the aforementioned support level. Once 3,350 , the psychological resistance level in US dollars, is breached, the next downside cushion will point to the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 3,341 US dollars. Further downside will test the 50-day SMA at 3,308 US dollars. To sustain a higher move, gold prices must effectively break through the static resistance level at 3,440 US dollars. The next upside target is at the two-month high of 3,453 US dollars, and a break above this could challenge the all-time high of 3,500 US dollars.

With the outbreak of conflicts between Israel and Iran, there is renewed concern about the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global energy artery. After Israel's attack on Iran, Iranian officials have hinted at the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz, a statement that once triggered a sharp spike in international crude oil prices. Why is the Strait of Hormuz crucial to the global energy market? The Strait of Hormuz is a waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, and it is the only access point to the Persian Gulf. (Satellite image) This narrow waterway is only 29 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point, yet it carries nearly one-third of the world's seaborne crude oil shipments and one-fifth of the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) refers to it as the "world's most important oil chokepoint." According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily in 2023, accounting for nearly 30% of the world's total oil trade. About 70% of this volume was destined for the Asian market, with major buyers including India and Japan. Despite the existence of alternative pipeline transportation options, their capacities are limited. The IEA estimates that the current oil transportation capacity diverted via land routes is only 4.2 million barrels per day, such as Saudi Arabia's "East-West Pipeline" (leading to the Red Sea) and the UAE's "Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline" (leading to Fujairah). The transportation capacity of these alternative routes accounts for only about a quarter of the normal volume carried through the Strait. The LNG market's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz is even higher. All exports from Qatar, the world's second-largest LNG exporter, and the UAE must pass through this strait. The IEA states that in the first 10 months of 2023, a total of 90 billion m³ of LNG was transported through the Strait, accounting for 20% of global LNG trade. Given that there are few viable alternative routes for Qatar and the UAE's LNG exports, any shipping disruptions would severely tighten global supply. About 80% of LNG exports are headed to Asia, while Europe receives approximately 20%, meaning that in a tight market, such disruptions would further exacerbate regional competition. How high could oil prices rise if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked? Although a full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran is still considered a low-probability event, analysts generally believe that the mere existence of this threat is enough to cause significant volatility in the energy market. Goldman Sachs has warned that in an extreme risk scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz experiences a prolonged blockade, international oil prices could surge significantly above $100 per barrel. The bank estimates that Iran's current daily crude oil production is approximately 3.6 million barrels, with daily condensate production at around 800,000 barrels, and average seaborne exports averaging 2.1 million barrels per day since the beginning of the year. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, stated that given the latest developments, the market has begun to factor in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Patterson pointed out that even a disruption in Iran's oil exports alone would be sufficient to overturn the previously anticipated crude oil supply surplus in the market, potentially driving Brent crude oil prices up to $80 per barrel. He warned that a more severe scenario, such as a disruption in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, could have far more profound implications. "Nearly one-third of the world's seaborne oil passes through this strategic chokepoint," Patterson said. "If there were significant disruptions to these shipments, oil prices could surge to $120 per barrel, especially since most of OPEC's spare capacity is located in the Persian Gulf region and would be difficult to mobilize in such a scenario." He added, "An escalation of the situation would also impact the European natural gas market."

SMM June 17 news: Metal market: Domestic base metals showed mixed performance overnight, with SHFE tin slightly down. SHFE copper rose 0.45%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. SHFE lead gained 0.35%. SHFE aluminum edged down 0.02%, while SHFE zinc advanced 0.62%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract increased 0.18%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract climbed 0.64%. Overnight ferrous metals series mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.07%, stainless steel down 0.2%, rebar gaining 0.17%, and HRC slightly higher. For coking coal and coke: coking coal rose 1.08%, coke increased 0.85%. Overnight overseas market metals saw LME base metals generally rise, with LME copper up 0.52%, LME aluminum gaining 0.56%, LME lead rising 0.8%, LME zinc jumping 1.41%, while LME tin fell 0.44% and LME nickel declined 0.42%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold dropped 1.4%; COMEX silver edged up 0.04%. SHFE gold fell 1.37%, SHFE silver decreased 0.08%. As of 8:15 am June 17, overnight closing quotes 》Click to view SMM futures data dashboard Macro front Domestic: [Notice: MOFCOM to hold press conference on 19th regarding key work in commerce sector] The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference at 3 pm on Thursday, June 19, 2025, where its spokesperson will introduce recent key work in the commerce sector and take questions from reporters. [NAFMII convenes symposium on supporting high-quality development of automakers in China's interbank market] NAFMII held a symposium on June 16, 2025, discussing interbank market support for high-quality development of automakers. Representatives from automakers and lead underwriters attended, with the meeting chaired by NAFMII Vice President Zhong Xu. The association presented interbank market support for the automotive industry. Representatives from 9 companies - FAW, SAIC, BAIC Group, BYD, Geely Holding, Great Wall Motor, NIO Group, XPeng Motors, and Xiaomi Group - described challenges faced amid cut-throat competition and proposed suggestions for optimizing financing environment. Lead underwriters conducted on-site matchmaking for automakers' financing needs. Next, NAFMII will implement the Party Central Committee and State Council's strategic deployment on developing new quality productive forces through technological innovation, strengthen bond market system building and product innovation, optimize financial services tailored for the automotive sector, encourage automakers to increase bond financing while maintaining healthy development and avoiding disorderly competition, and actively promote intelligent, high-end, green transformation to advance China's automotive industry toward high-quality development. Cailian Press) [CPCA: 52,000 Pickup Trucks Sold in May, Up 13.6% YoY] According to data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in May 2025, 51,700 pickup trucks were produced nationwide, up 20.8% compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, 255,000 pickup trucks were produced, up 23.4% YoY. In May 2025, 52,000 pickup trucks were sold in the market, up 13.6% compared to May 2024, and down 8.1% MoM from the previous month, remaining at a high level in the past five years. From January to May 2025, 258,000 pickup trucks were sold, up 18.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. [Goldman Sachs Bullish Again: Global Capital Returns to China, Optimistic About China's "Top 10" Stocks] Kinger Lau, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, recently released a research report titled "The Return of China's Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment prospects for China's private enterprises are improving. Goldman Sachs has listed China's "Top 10," namely the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on. They are: Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Ctrip, and Anta. 》Click for details US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.03% overnight, closing at 98.15. The market is focused on the tense situation between Israel and Iran, as well as the US Fed's policy meeting this week. The Fed meeting will conclude on Wednesday. The market generally expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. However, the market will be watching how the Fed views recent data, which generally indicate softening economic activity, but the risk of rising price pressures remains high. Other Currencies: Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) began their annual summit in Canada. With about three weeks left until Trump's deadline for trade agreements, the market remains nervous as agreements with major trading partners such as the EU and Japan have not yet been signed. They will be looking for any progress made in any bilateral talks with the US on the sidelines of the G7 leaders' summit. (Webstock Inc.) Data: Today, data such as the Bank of Japan's policy benchmark interest rate on June 17, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone in June, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany in June, the US monthly import price index for May, the US annual import price index for May, the US monthly retail sales for May, the US monthly core retail sales for May, the US annual retail sales for May, the US monthly retail sales control group associated with GDP for May - seasonally adjusted, the US monthly industrial output for May, the US capacity utilization rate for May, the US monthly manufacturing output for May, the US manufacturing capacity utilization rate for May, and the US annual industrial output for May - seasonally adjusted, will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that: Today, 182 billion yuan of one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) matured; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held a monetary policy press conference; the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision; US President Trump visited Canada from June 15 to 17 to attend the G7 Leaders' Summit. Crude oil: Both WTI and Brent crude oil futures fell, with WTI down 2.06% and Brent down 2.33%. Market concerns about disruptions to crude oil supplies in the Middle East eased, leading to a decline in oil prices. The US Navy said on Monday that electronic interference with commercial shipping navigation systems around the Strait of Hormuz had surged in recent days, affecting vessels passing through the area. Approximately one-fifth of global oil consumption, or about 18-19 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil, condensate, and fuels, passes through the Strait. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces about 3.3 million bpd of oil and fuels and exports more than 2 million bpd. Analysts and OPEC observers said that the spare capacity of OPEC oil-producing countries to increase production to offset any disruptions is roughly equivalent to Iran's production. A preliminary survey showed that US crude oil and distillate inventories likely fell last week, while gasoline inventories may have increased. Before the weekly inventory report was released, the average forecast of four surveyed analysts was that US crude oil inventories increased by about 600,000 barrels in the week ending June 13. US distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, were expected to decrease by about 100,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories were expected to increase by 200,000 barrels. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 4:30 AM Beijing time on Wednesday, and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly crude oil inventory report at 10:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday. (Webstock Inc.)

The market fluctuated and rebounded throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. Trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 1.22 trillion yuan, a decrease of 252.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. On the futures market, hot topics rotated rapidly, with more stocks rising than falling. Over 3,500 stocks across the market advanced. In terms of sectors, the IP economy concept remained strong throughout the day, with multiple stocks such as Enlight Media hitting the daily limit. The stablecoin concept strengthened again, with stocks like GCL New Energy Holdings and Hundsun Technologies hitting the daily limit. The chemical sector remained active, with stocks like Jinniu Chemical hitting the daily limit. On the downside, the football concept experienced volatile adjustments, with Gongchuang Lawn approaching the daily limit down. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.66%. Sector-wise In the sector, stablecoin concept stocks strengthened further in the afternoon, with stocks like Insigma Technology, Tiansun Technology, Hundsun Technologies, Hengbao, China Finance Online, and Oceanpayment hitting the daily limit. Stocks like Lakala and Feitian Technologies rose over 10%. On the news front, Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government Paul Chan Mo-po recently wrote that after the Stablecoin Ordinance comes into effect, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority will process license applications as soon as possible to allow eligible applicants to commence their businesses. Additionally, Walmart, the largest retailer in the US, and Amazon, the largest e-commerce platform in the US, have recently been exploring the possibility of issuing stablecoins in the US. This, combined with the continuous surge in Circle, a stablecoin concept stock listed on the US stock market, has also catalyzed positive sentiment for A-shares. However, after the overall volume surge in the stablecoin sector, it remains noteworthy whether there will be sufficient capital inflows to support the sector tomorrow. If the sector can maintain its upward momentum or complete a transition from divergence to consensus within the day, its short-term position may be further strengthened. Conversely, if it returns to consolidation after a sentiment peak, it should be viewed from the perspective of topic rotation, with a focus on front-line core stocks at that time. The IP economy concept remained strong throughout the day, with stocks like Enlight Media, GaoLe, Cuihua Jewelry, Yuanlong Yatu, and Dazzle Fashion hitting the daily limit. Stocks like Rastar Group, Jinghua Laser, Kingwin Laser, and Bona Film Group led the gains. On the news front, on the IP side, Labubu has gone viral globally, with the overseas expansion of domestic cultural IPs exceeding expectations. Industry insiders commented that its popularity is another vivid manifestation of Chinese creativity and innovative products gaining global recognition. Huachuang Securities remains bullish on the high-growth development of China's IP industry and the progress of cultural exports in the long term. From a market perspective, the overall position of IP economy concept stocks has already risen significantly after the hype. Therefore, amid intensifying market divergence, fluctuations in related stocks during the trading day may be more pronounced. However, as long as the medium-term trend remains intact, the overall risk is relatively controllable. In addition, the market's recent speculation on the IP economy has gradually extended to sub-sectors such as film and television, gaming, and even 3D printing. Therefore, attention can still be paid to the rebound opportunities of newly strengthened stocks in lower-tier sub-sectors. Regarding individual stocks From the perspective of individual stocks, although short-term sentiment showed some recovery today, the feedback from high-level consecutive limit-up stocks remained relatively average. As of the close, only Yuanlong Yatu remained among the stocks with more than two consecutive limit-ups today. However, stocks like Beikong Technology, Nanhua Futures, Yiming Pharmaceutical, and Hengbao Co., although unable to maintain consecutive limit-ups, still managed to sustain a strong upward structure after breaking the streak. Therefore, in terms of the current speculative style, funds are no longer confined to pure consecutive limit-up strategies but are engaging in trend-based speculation combined with industry logic. On the other hand, the number of stocks with two consecutive limit-ups today increased to 16, mainly focusing on sectors such as oil and gas, IP economy, stablecoins, and chemicals. Therefore, which stocks can stand out in the future will also be a key focus, as the themes behind them may still hold certain rebound opportunities. Market Outlook Analysis The market rebounded with fluctuations today, with all three major indices closing in the green and more stocks rising than falling. This reflects that, after last Friday's high-volume adjustment, the market still possesses considerable momentum. However, it is worth noting that today's trading volume shrank significantly (a single-day decrease of over 250 billion yuan). Combined with the recent week's trend of "volume increases during declines and shrinks during rebounds," the market will need to confirm a renewed strength by breaking above the 5-day moving average with increased volume. From the perspective of the futures market, as repeatedly emphasized recently, the current hot topics continue to rotate rapidly, making it difficult for the market to form sufficient buying momentum. Therefore, to further enhance the profitability of the futures market, a more defined leading theme is needed to elevate the market's potential. Market News Focus 1. Goldman Sachs Turns Bullish Again: Global Funds Returning to China, Favoring China's "Top Ten" Stocks According to a report by CLS on June 16, Goldman Sachs' Chief China Equity Strategist, Kenneth Lau, recently released a research report titled "The Return of Chinese Private Enterprises: The Tide Has Turned." Lau pointed out that driven by various macro, policy, and micro factors, the medium-term investment outlook for Chinese private enterprises is improving. Goldman Sachs also emulated the "Magnificent Seven" of U.S. stocks and listed China's "Top Ten," which are the ten Chinese private publicly listed firms that Goldman Sachs particularly favors. They are Tencent, Alibaba, Xiaomi, BYD, Meituan, NetEase, Midea, Hengrui Medicine, Trip.com, and Anta. The combined market capitalization of the aforementioned ten companies reached US$1.6 trillion, accounting for 42% of the MSCI China Index's weight, with daily trading volume reaching US$11 billion. Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the earnings of the "Big Ten" will increase by 13% (compound annual growth rate) over the next two years, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16x. The "Big Ten" will collectively embody the latest economic themes in China, including AI/technology development, "going global," new consumption trends, and enhancing shareholder returns. Additionally, Liu Jinjin specifically noted that investing in private enterprises does not mean excluding state-owned enterprises—Goldman Sachs reiterated its preference for a combination of "high-quality" Chinese state-owned enterprises and shareholder returns. 2. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): Industrial Added Value Above Designated Size Grew 5.8% YoY in Real Terms in May Caijing News on June 16: Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that in May, the industrial added value above designated size grew 5.8% YoY in real terms. On a MoM basis, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 0.61% in May compared to the previous month. From January to May, the industrial added value above designated size grew 6.3% YoY.