Published: May 09, 2026 - 12:24 AM Updated: May 09, 2026 - 12:28 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices continue to trade in elevated territory, holding new support above $4,700 an ounce, and some analysts have noted that downside risks for the precious metal remain limited as central bank demand continues to provide solid support. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China continues to see lower gold prices as a buying opportunity, as the central bank bought 8.1 tonnes of gold in April, following its 5-tonne purchase in March. China has been a dominant player in the gold market in recent years, increasing its official gold reserves for the last 18 consecutive months. At the same time, the pace of purchases is at its highest level since December 2024. Analysts have said that it is difficult to be short gold when the market continues to see consistent demand from the official sector. “Central bank purchases have been among the key drivers of gold demand for over four years,” said Barbara Lambrecht, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, in a note on Friday. “Despite the significant rise in prices, purchases by central banks and other public institutions in the first quarter totaled nearly 245 tonnes, according to the WGC, which was 3% higher than the previous year and even slightly above the five-year average.” Although China has been a key player in the gold market, it is certainly not alone. Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), said in a social media post on Thursday that updated reserve data showed the Czech National Bank bought 2 tonnes of gold last month. “Its YTD net purchases now total 8 tonnes, helping to lift total gold holdings to over 79 tonnes,” he said. Gopaul also said that according to preliminary estimates, Poland’s central bank bought another 13 tonnes of gold in April; however, he added that this cannot be confirmed until official reserve numbers are updated. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/china-and-other-central-banks-continue-buy-dip-gold

Published: May 07, 2026 - 2:28 AM Updated: May 07, 2026 - 2:41 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is seeing some renewed momentum, with prices testing new resistance at $4,700 an ounce. While it still has some way to go to regain key price levels, one investment bank expects prices to eventually move higher. In her latest precious metals note, Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist at Morgan Stanley, reiterated her call for gold prices to end the year around $5,200 an ounce, up roughly 10% from current prices. Gower added that she is not surprised gold has struggled in recent months despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty from the ongoing war in Iran. “With the conflict triggering an energy supply shock that has reduced hopes for lower U.S. interest rates, it is not surprising that gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time,” said Amy Gower, Morgan Stanley Research’s Metals & Mining Commodity Strategist. “ Gold ’s sensitivity to monetary policy has taken over as the key price driver. This has overshadowed its safe-haven status and reduced its effectiveness as a hedge against both geopolitical and inflation risks. Gold prices reflect not just the impact of a particular event but, more importantly, the policy response that follows.” High oil prices, driving inflation pressures, are forcing the Federal Reserve to reevaluate its easing policy stance and, as a result, markets have started to price out rate cuts this year. However, Morgan Stanley is still betting on at least one rate cut this year, which will support higher gold prices. “ Gold is likely to remain sensitive to real yields, but we see room for further upside,” Gower said. Morgan Stanley sees one rate cut in January followed by another rate cut in March 2027. “This should benefit gold, with ETF purchasing decisions particularly sensitive to policy signals and gold now realigning with real rates,” Gower said. As indicated by the current market volatility, gold ’s future depends heavily on what happens with the conflict in the Middle East. Overnight, President Donald Trump said that great progress is being made toward a lasting peace agreement. Analysts have said that if the crisis ends soon, the global economy should be able to recover from the current energy supply crisis. However, Gower added that the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risks are for gold. “ Gold prices may suffer if markets begin to anticipate prolonged rate holds or even hikes,” Gower warned. “At the same time, upside in a resolution scenario could be limited, as already elevated prices may constrain demand from ETFs, central banks and consumers.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-06/morgan-stanley-sees-gold-prices-climbing-5200-despite-geopolitical

Strong copper and gold prices are driving a sharp increase in demand for industrial explosives used in mining operations. Australian explosives and blasting service providers said copper mine expansions and new project developments are boosting order volumes across the sector. Analysts noted that AI infrastructure, electrification, and energy-transition spending are fueling a broader mining investment cycle, benefiting the entire copper supply chain. The mining services industry is expected to remain strong over the coming years as global resource demand continues rising.

India, the world’s second-largest bullion market, has seen gold and silver imports grind to a halt for five weeks since April 1, driving domestic prices to a premium of over $20 an ounce above international levels for the first time since early February.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Starting from the new all-time high of USD 5,602 on January 29, the gold price has now been in a correction phase for over three months, characterized so far by two sharp downward waves, two recovery waves, and most recently by another downward wave since mid-April.

The correction in precious metal prices initially continued as expected over the course of this week.

The performance of the gold price in March surprised many investors, as the precious metal recorded significant price declines despite geopolitical escalations.

In an increasingly fragmented global economy, gold is massively gaining focus as a neutral reserve asset. According to Deutsche Bank’s assessment, the precious metal is one of the main beneficiaries of global de-dollarization, even though the gold price is currently weakening.

SMM May 6: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic market base metals all rose. SHFE copper gained 1.65%. SHFE aluminum gained 1.17%. SHFE lead gained 1.74%, SHFE zinc gained 2.24%. SHFE tin gained 6.6%. SHFE nickel gained 3.86%. In addition, casting aluminum most-traded futures gained 1.07%, alumina most-traded fell 0.56%. Lithium carbonate most-traded gained 6.59%. Silicon metal most-traded gained 1.77%. Polysilicon most-traded futures gained 1%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 2.52%, rebar up 1.44%, hot-rolled coil up 2.02%, and stainless steel up 1.81%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract gained 2.29%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.04%. Overseas market base metals, as of 11:42, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 1.37%. LME aluminum gained 0.36%, LME lead gained 0.41%, LME zinc gained 1.65%. LME tin gained 4.43%. LME nickel gained 1.66%. Precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold gained 1.85%, COMEX silver gained 3.18%. Domestic market precious metals: SHFE gold most-traded gained 1.84%, SHFE silver most-traded gained 5.15%. Analysts said gold futures prices rose as Middle East tensions eased. Vivek Dhar of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted in a research report that Trump announced a temporary suspension of the plan to provide safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels, which eased tensions. Since gold hit an intraday high of $5,422 per ounce on March 2, gold futures have largely moved inversely with the degree of Middle East tensions. Dhar added that upside drivers for gold prices could come from several factors: hopes for a Middle East ceasefire, market pricing of interest rate cuts due to high energy prices dragging on global growth, and concerns over US Fed independence. (Jin10 Data) In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures gained 4.14%, and palladium most-traded futures gained 4.42%. As of the midday close, the most-traded contract of Europe containerized freight index gained 2.75%, closing at 2,339.3 points. As of 11:42 on May 6, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Cargo and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at 23,845-24,215 yuan/mt. Shuangyan had no transactions for now. #1 zinc mainstream transaction prices were at 23,775-24,145 yuan/mt. In the morning session, the market quoted premiums of 70-100 yuan/mt against SMM average prices, with no quotes against futures for now... Macro Front China: [China's April RatingDog services PMI rose to 52.6, accelerating expansion, with new orders achieving growth for the 40th consecutive month] China's services sector activity further accelerated expansion in April, with the composite PMI climbing to the second-highest level in nearly two years, indicating that domestic economic recovery momentum was still building. On May 6, the latest data showed that the RatingDog China General Services business activity index rose to 52.6 in April, up from 52.1 in March, signaling an acceleration within a continuous growth sequence, with the current expansion cycle having started in January 2023 . Meanwhile, the composite output index covering both manufacturing and services rose from 51.5 in March to 53.1, the second-fastest pace since May 2024, indicating a broad-based strengthening of China's overall business activity. [11.279 million cross-border trips made during Labour Day holiday, up 3.5% compared to the same period last year] According to the National Immigration Administration, border inspection agencies nationwide facilitated 11.279 million cross-border trips during this year's Labour Day holiday, with a daily average of 2.256 million trips, up 3.5% compared to last year's Labour Day holiday. The single-day peak occurred on May 2, reaching 2.529 million trips. Among them, foreign nationals made 1.255 million entry and exit trips, up 12.5% compared to the same period last year; of the inbound foreign nationals, 436,000 trips were made under visa-free policies, up 14.7% compared to the same period last year. A total of 531,000 cross-border transport vehicles (aircraft, vessels, trains, and automobiles) were inspected, up 16.6% compared to the same period last year. (CCTV News) [MIIT: Q1 revenue of large-scale electronic information manufacturers up 14.8% YoY] MIIT released the operating performance of the electronic information manufacturing industry for Q1 2026. In Q1 2026, China's electronic information manufacturing industry saw rapid production growth, continued export rebound, significant improvement in profitability, and accelerated investment growth, with the industry maintaining a sound overall development momentum. In Q1, large-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 4.31 trillion yuan, up 14.8% YoY; operating costs were 3.69 trillion yuan, up 11.7% YoY; total profits reached 217 billion yuan, up 1.25 times YoY. In March, large-scale electronic information manufacturers achieved revenue of 1.68 trillion yuan, up 15.7% YoY. [PBOC net drained 393.1 billion yuan through reverse repo operations] PBOC conducted 26 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 419.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net drainage of 393.1 billion yuan was achieved. US dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index fell 0.21% to 98.28. According to US financial website investinglive, USD/JPY dropped over 100 points in the short term, down more than 1% intraday, pulling back below the 157.00 level. The timing seems right — today is a Japanese market holiday, and the two previous intervention attempts also occurred in the window between the Asian session and the European session open. That said, the two previous interventions happened at a point closer to when USD/JPY had just broken through 157. This time, USD/JPY rallied all the way to near 158 before the suspected intervention occurred. Despite multiple attempts by Japan's Ministry of Finance, the effectiveness of intervention actions since last week has been diminishing, especially as fundamental factors continue to work overwhelmingly against the yen. The question then becomes how much money the Japanese authorities are willing to throw at this problem to make the intervention truly effective. Given the current broader economic backdrop, this is indeed a very thorny dilemma. The greatest hope Japanese officials are pinning on right now is that the US-Iran conflict can subside, thereby easing the pressure on the Japanese economy. Otherwise, they will continue swimming against a massive tide, trying to convince traders not to keep selling the yen. (Jin Shi Data) US President Trump posted that, based on requests from Pakistan and other countries, and given our tremendous military victories in actions against Iran, as well as significant progress made on a comprehensive final agreement with Iranian representatives, both sides have agreed that while blockade measures will remain in effect, "Operation Freedom" (the movement of ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a period of time to see whether the agreement can be finalized and signed. (Xinhua News Agency) Bond traders are ramping up bets that the US Fed's next policy move could be a rate hike rather than an interest rate cut. Swap contracts tied to central bank rate decisions now show that the market expects a greater than 50% probability of the US Fed raising rates before April next year, ahead of any interest rate cut. An increasing number of traders are also adding positions to hedge against the rising probability of a rate hike before year-end. This shift in market sentiment comes as policymakers appear increasingly divided on the interest rate outlook. Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist at LPL Financial, believes that the possibility of interest rate cuts this year still exists, but it will gradually diminish as the Iran conflict drags on. He stated: "Without a doubt, the road ahead for Waller will be full of challenges." According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 96.0%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut at 4.0%. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July is 88.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point cut at 10.9%, and a cumulative probability of a 50-basis-point cut at 0.3%. Bill Northey, Senior Investment Director at US Bank Asset Management Group, stated: "At this point, it appears that the Iran situation has not materially escalated, and the market is breathing a sigh of relief." Although hostilities in the Middle East appeared to ease on Tuesday, the conflict continued to affect future US economic indicators and the US Fed's interest rate decisions. He added that, for example, if the Strait of Hormuz could be safely and fully reopened, it would dampen expectations of rising inflation and push 10-year US Treasury yields lower. "Our base expectation is that this volatility is likely to persist," Northey said. (Jin10 Data) Data: Data to be released today include France's March industrial production MoM, France's April services PMI final, Germany's April services PMI final, Eurozone April services PMI final, UK April services PMI final, Eurozone March PPI MoM, US April ADP employment, and US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also noteworthy: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Crude oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets declined, with WTI down 1.39% and Brent down 1.4%. ING's commodities strategy team said in a report that the oil market faced renewed downward pressure as the US-Iran ceasefire agreement appeared to hold. Trump stated that "significant progress" had been made toward a "full and final deal" with Iran. The team noted that reaching an agreement to normalize oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz was crucial. (Jin10 Data) After the Iran conflict triggered fuel supply panic in Australia, Australia plans to include a A$10 billion ($7.2 billion) fuel security and resilience plan in next week's budget proposal. Australian Prime Minister Albanese stated that the plan would help build fuel and fertilizer reserves, including supporting the expansion of total diesel and aviation fuel reserves to a level sufficient for 50 days of supply. He also said the government itself would hold approximately 1 billion liters of fuel reserves. The Prime Minister and the Energy Minister discussed the plan after a national security meeting in Sydney. Australia's Energy Minister stated that Australia had responded to the crisis and currently held more domestic fuel reserves than at the start of the Iran conflict. He said: "This marks a significant shift in how our nation responds. We have been studying how to be better prepared for future shocks." (Jin10 Data) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►