[Price Review] This week (6.1-6.4), silver continued to fluctuate downward in the doldrums, with the overall price center shifting lower, as both international and domestic futures weakened in tandem. On the macro front, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 98.4% probability that the US Fed would keep interest rates unchanged in June, with only a 1.6% probability of a rate cut; for September, the probability of maintaining the current rate stood at 71.1%, with a 27.8% probability of a rate hike. Data-wise, US May ADP employment exceeded expectations, with private sector payrolls increasing by 122,000, the largest monthly gain since January last year, with key focus on tomorrow evening's US May non-farm payrolls data. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict remained unresolved; Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations were progressing smoothly and nearing a deal signing, while the maritime blockade on Iran may extend through September; the Israeli Prime Minister indicated tactical differences with the US but aligned strategic objectives, while the Israeli military stated there would be no ceasefire in Lebanon. Industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national-standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD remained in a slight discount range, but the discount narrowed further WoW, with market quotations gradually moving toward parity. Most transaction prices fell within a discount of 20-0 yuan/kg against the SGE TD contract. As silver prices declined during the week, downstream consumption recovered slightly WoW, with spot cargo selling pressure at low levels somewhat easing, though overall consumption remained sluggish. Inventory side, downstream consumption and investment sentiment remained cautious, and a notable improvement is unlikely in the near term. Social inventory of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to accumulate slightly. Gold/silver ratio side, as of June 3, the BMA gold/silver ratio widened further from 62.3 to 63.8 this week. [Key Data] Bearish: Warsh was officially inaugurated as Fed Chairman, with a clearly hawkish tone. Speculative funds withdrew on a large scale, with COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions continuing to shrink. Bullish: Peru's energy crisis persisted, with a national state of emergency declared through year-end. Twelve large mines have implemented staggered production, and May silver production is estimated to have declined by 5%-8%, with the global supply-demand gap still in place. [Recent Focus] June 5: US May non-farm payrolls report June 12: US May CPI data Key focus: US Fed officials' speeches, latest developments in US-Iran negotiations, and the implementation of production restrictions at Peruvian mines. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to hover at lows next week. Silver prices have yet to break free from the macro headwind environment, and the earlier supply-side speculation narrative has largely faded. Key focus will be on tomorrow evening's non-farm payrolls data, US Fed officials' speeches, and the direction of US-Iran negotiations. In terms of operations, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, pending clear stabilization signals. On the China fundamentals side, downstream buying sentiment remained relatively cautious. Overall consumption recovered slightly as silver prices stayed at short-term lows. Low-level spot selling pressure in the market eased somewhat, but the overall market remained sluggish. Investment sentiment showed no obvious rebound either. Social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate slightly. The mainstream spot transaction discount in the market is expected to remain within the range of a 10-0 yuan/kg discount to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

The investor relations activity record of Yunnan Copper for May 26–27, 2026 shows: 1 What is the company's planned copper concentrate production from captive mines this year, and what is the approximate cost level of the mining enterprises? According to the company's 2026 financial budget and production plan, full-year self-produced copper concentrates are expected to contain 69,800 mt of copper metal content. The company's current mining enterprises mainly include Diqing Nonferrous, Liangshan Mining, Yuxi Mining, and Diqing Mining. Due to differences in resource endowment and the life cycle stage of each mine, cost levels vary, with Diqing Nonferrous, Liangshan Mining, and Yuxi Mining having relatively lower costs. Meanwhile, the company strives to maintain overall cost stability through measures such as lean operations and increasing mining volumes. 2 What is the progress of the Hongnipo copper mine construction project of Liangshan Mining? The Hongnipo copper mine is currently under construction, with cumulative verified resource reserves of 16.06 million mt of ore, an average copper grade of 1.42%, and copper metal content of 592,900 mt. The project is progressing in an orderly manner as planned and is expected to be completed and ready for commissioning in 2026. 3 Will the mine resources under the company's major shareholder be injected into the publicly listed firm? Asset injection involves complex systematic work that requires comprehensive consideration of development strategy, asset conditions, regulatory requirements, and shareholder interests. The company will continue to focus on and strive to enhance the quality of the publicly listed firm, and if there are any new relevant arrangements, it will strictly follow prescribed decision-making and disclosure procedures. 4 Has the company set a target for resource self-sufficiency rate? The company regards improving resource self-sufficiency rate as an important long-term strategic task, relying primarily on three paths: commissioning of projects under construction, tapping potential of existing mines, and external resource acquisitions. Regarding projects under construction, the company successfully completed the acquisition of 40% equity in Liangshan Mining in December 2025, and the Hongnipo project is expected to be completed and ready for commissioning in 2026. Regarding tapping potential of existing mines, the company leverages its major mines to continuously intensify deep and peripheral exploration efforts, steadily advancing resource succession and reserve additions. Regarding external resource acquisitions, while managing existing mines and smelters well, the company actively monitors quality mineral resource projects and prudently conducts field trips and evaluations based on strategic positioning and market demand. 5 What proportion can the company's copper smelting TC long-term contracts approximately reach? The company follows the principles of marketization and maximization of comprehensive benefits in externally purchasing raw materials. As one of the larger copper concentrate purchasers in China, the company has long maintained good, stable, long-term cooperative relationships with major suppliers, and actively negotiates with copper concentrate suppliers to stabilize long-term contract supply and ensure orderly production. 6 What were the company's sulphuric acid selling price and production in Q1 2026? According to the company's 2026 production plan, planned annual sulphuric acid production is 5.76 million mt. In Q1 2026, sulphuric acid production progressed in an orderly manner as planned. Price side, as a by-product of copper smelting, sulphuric acid selling prices are influenced by multiple factors including regional market supply and demand, transportation conditions, and industry prosperity. Since the beginning of this year, driven by robust downstream demand and tight supply in some producing areas, sulphuric acid selling prices have stayed high. The company seized market opportunities, reasonably arranged production and sales, and made positive contributions to operating performance. Meanwhile, the company will continue to monitor price changes and dynamically optimize production and sales pace. 7 Does the company have further cost reduction plans? The company's mining and smelting enterprises continuously pursue lean cost reduction to build low-cost competitive advantages. For example, the company is comprehensively advancing the "Three-Year Cost Reduction 3.0" initiative, continuously promoting cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and lowering unit production costs through technological upgrades, process optimization, and improved management efficiency. 8 What major capital expenditures are expected in the future? The company's future major capital expenditures will primarily focus on the following strategic directions: first, resource acquisition—continuously strengthening exploration and acquisition of quality copper mineral resources in and outside China to enhance resource security capabilities; second, intelligent manufacturing—advancing automation, digitalization, and intelligent upgrades of mines and smelting plants to improve production efficiency and safety levels; third, green and low-carbon development—increasing investment in environmental protection, energy conservation, and other areas to promote sustainable development. Performance side: Yunnan Copper's Q1 2026 report disclosed on April 24 showed that the company achieved total operating revenue of 52.959 billion yuan, up 49.62% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent was 675 million yuan, up 7.93% YoY. Regarding the reasons for the increase in operating revenue, Yunnan Copper stated that it was mainly due to higher product prices compared to the same period last year and increased sales volumes compared to the same period last year. Yunnan Copper's 2025 annual report showed that in 2025, the company firmly established market entity awareness, strengthened its lean operations system, and solidly carried out production organization, cost control, indicator optimization, marketing value creation, and other work, with main product production reaching record highs and key technical and economic indicators continuously optimized. Full-year production included copper cathode of 1.6411 million mt, gold of 26.04 mt, silver of 735.38 mt, and sulphuric acid of 6.189 million mt, with copper cathode, gold, and silver production all reaching record highs. Full-year operating revenue reached 79.542 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent was 1.301 billion yuan, with operating efficiency steadily improving. Cost and technical indicators were continuously optimized, with mine concentrate copper content and smelting copper cathode unit full cost outperforming annual cost reduction targets. Key technical indicators for smelting and mining remained stable with improvement. In 2025, the copper smelting total recovery rate exceeded the target by 0.07 percentage points, and slag flotation tailings copper content was optimized by 0.01 percentage points versus the target, both reaching industry-leading levels. Yunnan Copper announced that in 2025, the company's concentrate copper content production, on a consolidated statement basis, was 69,400 mt, up 26.64% YoY from 2024, mainly because the company issued shares to acquire 40% equity in Liangshan Mining held by Yunnan Copper Group during 2025, and Liangshan Mining was included in the consolidated statements as of December 31, 2025, with its full-year production included in the statistics. Regarding the company's main businesses, Yunnan Copper introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company's main businesses cover copper exploration, mining and beneficiation, smelting, extraction of precious metals and rare scattered metals, sulphur chemicals, and trading. It is an important copper, gold, silver, and sulphur chemical production site in China. The company has established a relatively complete industry chain in copper and related nonferrous metals and is a copper enterprise with deep industry heritage. Main products include copper cathode, gold, silver, industrial sulphuric acid, and rare and scattered metal products such as molybdenum, platinum, palladium, selenium, and tellurium. The company's main products are all produced according to international standardization organization standards, operating effectively under the international ISO9001 quality management system to ensure strict quality control. The company's main product, copper cathode, is widely used in electrical, light industry, machinery manufacturing, construction, national defense, and other fields; gold and silver are used in finance, jewelry, electronic materials, etc.; industrial sulphuric acid is used as raw material for chemical products and in other sectors of the national economy. The company's "Tiefeng" brand copper cathode is registered on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the London Metal Exchange; "Tiefeng" brand gold is registered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange; "Tiefeng" brand silver is registered on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the London Bullion Market Association. Regarding the company's future development outlook, Yunnan Copper introduced in its 2025 annual report: Yunnan Copper adheres to the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, fully implements the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and its successive plenary sessions, and upholds and strengthens the Party's overall leadership. The company actively serves major national strategies, adheres to promoting high-quality development as the theme, fully, accurately, and comprehensively implements the new development philosophy, continuously enhances core functions and improves core competitiveness, and better plays its role in scientific and technological innovation, industrial control, and security support in building a modern industrial system and constructing a new development pattern. The company emphasizes "two guarantees" (important mineral resource guarantee and important metal material guarantee), "two innovations" (scientific and technological innovation and management innovation), "two constructions" (strengthening Party building, especially cadre team building), and "three unwavering commitments" (unwavering in accelerating structural adjustment, unwavering in deepening enterprise reform, and unwavering in international operations and increasing "going global" efforts). The company focuses on "digital-intelligent transformation, expanding resources, refining mines, optimizing smelting, solidifying recycled (copper), and detailing rare scattered (metals)," accelerating the construction of a world-class excellent copper company, and continuously opening new prospects for Yunnan Copper's high-quality development. Guosen Securities' research report commenting on Yunnan Copper on April 11 showed: Quality asset consolidation. Production side, the company's copper ore production was close to 70,000 mt, with major mines maintaining stable production. Copper smelting side, after Southwest Copper reached full production, the company's 2025 copper cathode production was 1.64 million mt, up 440,000 mt or 36% YoY. During the reporting period, the company purchased 40% equity in Liangshan Mining through share issuance to its major shareholder, achieving consolidation. Liangshan Mining is a quality asset, with its mines featuring open-pit mining, abundant reserves, higher grade than the publicly listed firm's existing copper mines, and lower costs than the publicly listed firm's existing copper mines. In H2 2025, profitability of major subsidiaries generally declined. Although copper, gold, and silver prices rose significantly in H2 2025, the company's mining operations saw profit decline QoQ. Smelting operations also declined significantly in H2 2025, which was related to the sharp drop in copper concentrate TCs. As sulphuric acid prices are expected to stay high, the company's smelting business profitability is expected to improve. Gross profit by product side, the company produces over 6 million mt of sulphuric acid annually. Benefiting from sulphuric acid price increases, sulphuric acid business gross profit in 2025 was 2.03 billion yuan, up 1.5 billion yuan YoY, representing a performance highlight. Since early 2026, sulphuric acid prices have continued to rise, and this is expected to further boost earnings. Leveraging the copper industry's high-prosperity cycle in recent years, the company's asset quality has improved, and during the reporting period it achieved consolidation of Liangshan Mining, a quality asset. As the sole copper publicly listed platform under Chalco Group, injection of other quality assets from the major shareholder is anticipated. Although the copper smelting business is under pressure in the short term, the government has issued policies to strictly control new copper smelting capacity, and the company benefits from global copper smelting capacity rationalization, with a favorable long-term industry landscape. Maintain "Outperform" rating.

May 18, 2026 In April, the Chinese gold market presented itself as a fascinating two-tiered society: while physical consumption at the grassroots level cooled noticeably, institutional investors and the government continued to pour billions into the precious metal undeterred. A market is emerging that is decoupling itself from short-term price fluctuations and is instead dominated by hard-nosed strategic purchases. Geopolitics keeps the price in a sideways stranglehold In terms of price, gold largely treaded water in April. The LBMA Gold Price PM recorded a marginal gain of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Gold Benchmark Price PM fell by 0.4%. Geopolitical ups and downs shaped the picture: An initial easing of tensions in the Middle East pushed bond yields lower and initially supported the precious metal. Shortly thereafter, new uncertainties surrounding the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices, dampened hopes for rapid U.S. interest rate cuts, and took the wind out of gold’s sails. Yet while the price stabilized, massive transactions were taking place behind the scenes. The driving forces: ETFs, the central bank, and imports Despite burgeoning competition from a resurgent Chinese stock market, financial investors and the central bank continued their accumulation unabated. The figures from the World Gold Council speak for themselves: ETFs on a record-breaking streak: For the eighth consecutive month, Chinese gold ETFs recorded inflows—specifically 3.5 billion renminbi (498 million USD). Holdings rose by 3 tons to a new month-end high of 301 tons. Assets under management thus climbed to 306 billion renminbi (45 billion USD). PBoC buys relentlessly: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) increased its gold reserves by another 8 tons in April, bringing the total to 2,322 tons. It was the 18th consecutive monthly purchase and the largest since December 2024. Gold now accounts for 9% of total foreign exchange reserves (USD 3.8 trillion). Massive Q1 imports: Net imports underscore the massive appetite for the metal. In March, these rose to 143 tons (+49% month-over-month). The first quarter closed at 316 tons—a massive jump of 182% from the previous quarter and 333% year-over-year. Sluggish consumption and declining trading volumes On the flip side, there is a noticeable slowdown in physical wholesale trading, which coincides exactly with the start of the traditionally weaker seasonal phase in the second quarter. Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange fell by 23% month-over-month in April to 103 tons. However, the 33% year-over-year decline is significantly mitigated by the fact that April 2025 marked the highest demand since 2018. The trend is nonetheless unmistakable: Chinese consumers are currently preferring to channel their capital into experiences and travel rather than traditional jewelry. While there was some light restocking ahead of the May 1 holidays, the major surge failed to materialize. Even physical bullion buyers have recently hesitated, lured by the renewed appeal of the domestic stock market. This caution was also evident in the futures market. Trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 31% to 307 tons per day. However, the fact that this figure remains significantly above the five-year average of 265 tons per day demonstrates the market’s underlying strength. Outlook: The market remains divided This two-pronged picture is likely to persist in the coming months. Demand for jewelry and bullion is expected to remain weak during the seasonal lull, especially if the stock market remains strong as a competitor for capital. However, strategic and financial demand via ETFs and the central bank forms a massive foundation that cements China’s position as an indispensable anchor in the global gold sector. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/china-s-gold-market-why-major-investors-and-the-central-bank-are-buying-up-massively-despite

[Price Review] This week, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire continued to heat up, with US media reporting that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, driving a sharp pullback in crude oil and a retreat in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields from highs, which propelled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver's gains notably outpacing gold. US April ADP employment data released this week showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The market has now turned its focus to Friday evening's non-farm payrolls report. On expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the latest CME data showed that market bets on near-term US Fed rate cuts remained at low levels, with a 93.5% probability of maintaining the current rate at the June FOMC meeting, corresponding to a 6.5% probability of a rate cut; the probability of holding rates steady at the July meeting reached 86.5%, with a 13.5% probability of a rate cut. Industrial demand side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, with downstream participants taking a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the silver price rebound, and only some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 6, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 61. [Key Data] Bullish: On May 6, the US side stated it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. If the agreement materializes, the pullback in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures and weaken the US Fed's hawkish stance. Dovish divisions within the US Fed persisted, with some officials still believing there was room for multiple interest rate cuts within the year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading. Stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven allocation demand for silver. Bearish: US April ADP employment added 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The April FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. CME data showed a 93.5% probability of holding rates steady in June, with expectations for rate cuts within the year contracting to 0–1 times, and the US dollar and real US Treasury yields held up well. China's silver industrial demand remained subdued, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate. Key data and macro developments to watch in the near term include: May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. May 12: US April CPI data. In addition, close attention should be paid to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. [Price Forecast] US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered a critical window. Although both sides have released signals of peace talks, core demands have not yet been reconciled. Whether the agreement ultimately materializes and whether new uncertainties emerge regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dominate market risk appetite, serving as the core variable affecting silver's short-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, silver is expected to first see a volatile rebound and then consolidate at highs next week, with an overall bullish bias. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream consumption remained sluggish. With the rebound in spot silver prices, downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The upward trend in social inventory of spot silver ingots has yet to improve, and the mainstream spot market transactions are expected to maintain a slight discount relative to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

SMM April 30: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell, with SHFE copper edging up slightly. SHFE aluminum fell 0.41%, SHFE lead fell 0.66%, SHFE zinc fell 0.8%, SHFE tin rose 0.44%, and SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.3%, and the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.52%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.46%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.97%. Ferrous metals all rose, with iron ore up 0.89%, rebar up 0.69%, hot-rolled coil up 0.77%, and stainless steel up 1.43%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.42%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.66%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.42%, LME aluminum fell 0.32%, LME lead rose 0.26%, LME zinc fell 0.09%, LME tin rose 0.97%, and LME nickel rose 0.86%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.28% and COMEX silver rose 0.79%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 0.29%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.81%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.89%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.52% to 2,296.2 points. As of 11:40 on April 30, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 320 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 240 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 101,575 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 101,475 yuan/mt, up 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory saw a significant decline today... Macro Front China: [NBS: April Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%, China's Overall Economic Output Remained in Expansion Territory] The NBS Survey Center for Services and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released China's April PMI today. The manufacturing PMI continued to operate in expansion territory after rebounding into expansion territory in March, indicating that the overall manufacturing prosperity level remained stable and the manufacturing sector maintained a sound operating trend. In April, China's manufacturing PMI stood at 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point MoM, remaining in expansion territory for the second consecutive month. [PBOC reverse repo operations achieved net injection of 125.7 billion yuan for the day and net withdrawal of 197.9 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 126.2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 500 million yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, the net injection for the day was 125.7 billion yuan. This week, the PBOC conducted a total of 414.1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As a total of 600 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 12 billion yuan of reverse repos matured this week, the net withdrawal for the week was 197.9 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 98.98. The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with notable internal divisions emerging. Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that although someone voted against maintaining the dovish language in the statement at the most recent monetary policy meeting, he believed officials were not inclined to raise rates. Powell said: "People are not saying we need to raise rates now; it's more of a discussion about whether the Fed should adopt a neutral stance on the policy outlook." Fed Chairman Powell stated at the press conference that monetary policy may be in a range that is neutral in its impact on the economy. He said: "I think we are very close to the neutral rate, which is probably in the range of 3% to 4%, and the current federal funds target rate range is 3.5% to 3.75%." He added: "If we need to raise rates, we will signal and raise them, and vice versa." Fed Chairman Powell said Wednesday that continuing to serve as a governor after his chairmanship ends is to help stabilize the Fed before political pressure subsides. Powell said at the press conference: "As long as I feel it is appropriate to stay, I will stay." He added: "I don't want to be some kind of high-profile dissenter or anything like that." US President Trump said: "Mr. Too Late" Powell wants to stay at the Fed because he can't find a job anywhere else — nobody wants him. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that outgoing Fed Chairman Powell remaining as a Fed governor would be extraordinary. For someone who has always emphasized norms, his unilateral decision runs counter to tradition. Kevin Warsh will bring a new chapter to the US Fed with a clear accountability system, effective governance mechanisms, and sound policymaking. According to the CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through July was 99%, with a 1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged through September was 98.8%, with a 1.2% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report maintained its previous view, expecting one 25bps interest rate cut in H2 under the baseline scenario after Warsh assumes the chairmanship. We believe close attention should be paid to speeches by the 12 sitting voting members going forward, as the US Fed's monetary policy path will depend more on the vote balance among FOMC members, while the guiding role of the Fed Chairman's personal remarks on markets has diminished compared to the past. A CICC research report stated that from a fundamental theoretical perspective, the US Fed should still and needs to cut interest rates approximately twice, which is one reason we are more optimistic than the market on rate cuts. As long as oil prices do not stay persistently above $100 through year-end, the high base effect driving inflation to pull back can provide room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. However, in practice, this will require cooperation from oil prices and Trump. The stalemate over the Iran situation keeping oil prices staying high, and Powell's reluctance to fully step back due to concerns over the investigation causing divisions within the US Fed, are not problems Warsh can single-handedly resolve after taking over in June. The key lies with Trump — if a compromise is reached swiftly and the investigation into Powell is conclusively ended, the prospects for interest rate cuts will gradually open up. On the data front: Data to be released today include: France Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, France April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Switzerland April KOF Leading Economic Indicator, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany Q1 non-seasonally adjusted GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone April CPI month-on-month preliminary, Eurozone Q1 GDP year-on-year preliminary, Eurozone March unemployment rate, UK Bank of England interest rate decision as of April 30, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate as of April 30, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate as of April 30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 25, US March core PCE price index year-on-year, US March personal spending month-on-month, US Q1 Employment Cost Index quarter-on-quarter, US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter preliminary, US March core PCE price index month-on-month, and US April Chicago PMI. Also worth watching: the US Fed FOMC interest rate decision; Fed Chairman Powell's monetary policy press conference; Google's earnings call; earnings calls from Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta; Samsung Electronics' earnings call; the Bank of England's interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report; Bank of England Governor Bailey's monetary policy press conference; the ECB's interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde's monetary policy press conference. Notably, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, SHFE, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and DCE had no night session trading on April 30 ahead of Labour Day holiday. Crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets continued the previous trading day's rally, with WTI up 1.96% and Brent up 2.16%. The Strait of Hormuz standoff is pushing the oil market from a short-term shock toward lasting repricing. Brent crude rose for consecutive sessions as Trump insisted on a maritime "blockade" against Iran. Traders' optimism that a three-week ceasefire could restore Gulf energy flows was fading. (Wallstreetcn) Bloomberg reported on the 29th that, according to a senior White House official, the US government was seeking to "seize" two Iran-linked oil tankers recently intercepted by the US Navy. The official said the DOJ had initiated "seizure" proceedings but did not elaborate on what the process entailed, nor whether it indicated the US planned to "seize" the crude oil aboard. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity citing "operational security," declined to disclose how the vessels would ultimately be handled or comment on their current routes. According to the US Department of Defense, the US Navy intercepted and boarded two tankers "transporting oil from Iran" in the Indian Ocean on the 20th and 22nd respectively. The two tankers continued sailing in the Indian Ocean over the following days and appeared to have changed course multiple times. (Xinhua) (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Platinum futures prices edged up during today's daytime session. The most-traded PT2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) closed at 509 yuan/gram in the morning session, up 1.21%. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) Pt9995 remained in persistent backwardation against the GFEX PT2606 contract. Spot side, mainstream spot quotations showed discounts largely unchanged from the previous trading day. Morning mainstream quotations from spot platinum traders were at a discount of 4–5 yuan/gram to PT2606. Recently, tax authorities launched a special campaign to rectify invoice-related economic irregularities, imposing strict controls on enterprise invoicing limits. However, since platinum and palladium trade volumes are relatively small, the impact of the invoicing crackdown on prices has not been significant so far. Transaction side, according to SMM, a small volume of deals were concluded near the mainstream quotation of 5 yuan/gram discount during the morning session. Some suppliers held prices firm for sales due to delivery intentions or shipments with invoices dated this month, while arbitrage traders generally targeted purchase prices near a 6 yuan/gram discount to the GFEX contract. Meanwhile, overall downstream consumption remained weak, with some enterprises making small negotiated purchases based on order conditions. The spot market was generally sluggish in terms of transactions.

Today, SMM's premium quotation range for the Shanghai Gold Exchange Ag (T+D) was TD-40 to 0 yuan/kg, with an average of -20 yuan/kg, and market quotations varied significantly across different brands of circulating supplies. The spot market saw severe involution among numerous shippers in pricing, and downstream consumption remained dismal during the off-season, with negotiation margins continuing to edge lower, and overall transactions were sluggish. In the early session, suppliers offered national-standard silver in the range of TD-30 to -10 yuan/kg. Downstream purchase willingness was subdued, with most participants adopting a wait-and-see approach, exercising caution in procurement, or making just-in-time procurement in small volumes. Currently, shippers maintained a wait-and-see attitude, considering registered warrants operations, with increasing reliance on banking institutions for price support.

Vietnam is moving toward establishing a national gold trading platform, transitioning from traditional gold shops to a centralized, digital, account-based system. The initiative aims to mobilize idle gold resources, improve market transparency, and reduce pressure on foreign exchange management. The Prime Minister has requested relevant ministries and agencies to urgently develop the exchange and target its operation before February 10, 2026; however, the project is still under review.

This week, the price spread between the TD price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract did not narrow to within 50 yuan/kg, with the spot-futures price spread disappearing during some trading sessions. As the weekend approached, suppliers began lowering premiums and selling off spot cargo due to reasons such as capital recovery or concerns about further narrowing of the spot-futures price spread. Some branded silver ingot suppliers suspended quotations and showed strong delivery intentions. As of Thursday, the tradable premium of national-standard silver ingots over TD in the Shanghai market was lowered to 20-30 yuan/kg, with a few suppliers closing small volumes at parity with the April contract. The market trend of downstream just-in-time procurement significantly bargaining down premiums continued. Some suppliers noted that downstream indicative bids had fallen to near TD parity, but only a few suppliers were able to accept and close deals. Investment demand in the Shenzhen market remained sluggish, and spot market trading stayed sluggish. Inventory side, under pessimistic expectations for PV orders this week, spot market consumption remained subdued. As the April delivery approached, suppliers shipped to delivery warehouses and transferred inventory as scheduled, leading to a notable increase in social inventory of silver ingots in the Shanghai and Shenzhen regions.

This week, the price spread between the TD price on the Gold Exchange and the SHFE April contract did not continue to narrow, and the total quoted trading volume of circulating imported silver ingot cargoes in the market had already declined from March. Although many suppliers still held prices firm and were reluctant to sell due to costs and delivery intentions, among other reasons, downstream just-in-time procurement generally transacted at sharply lowered premiums after aggressive bargaining. Investment demand in the Shenzhen market was sluggish, and some suppliers dumped non-registered brand silver ingots at quotes on parity with TD or at slight discounts. Overall spot market transactions remained weak. As of Thursday, tradable quotes for standard silver ingots in the Shanghai market against TD premiums edged down to 60-80 yuan/kg, while a small number of end-users' small orders of less than 50 kg were still concluded at premiums of 80-100 yuan/kg. Some holders of standard silver ingots suspended quotations and intended to make delivery, while enthusiasm for stockpiling on dips did not improve, and sluggish spot market trading remained unchanged. Inventory side, spot market consumption did not improve this week. Downstream just-in-time procurement maintained aggressive bargaining, with transactions mainly concluded at lowered premiums. Many suppliers did not accept price cuts to sell cargoes, and mentioned increased delivery intentions next week, transferring silver ingot inventory from non-delivery warehouses to delivery warehouses. Social inventory of silver ingots posted a slight buildup.