[2026 Zinc Concentrates Benchmark Released] It was reported that the market heard this week that Teck Resources, a Canadian mining company, and a South Korean zinc company agreed on a 2026 benchmark processing fee for imported zinc concentrates of $85/dmt, a slight rebound from $80/dmt in 2025, while raising charges for silver and germanium after prices for the two metals surged.

SMM January 15: Macro factors, on November 15, with approval from the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, in conjunction with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Cryptography Administration, issued Announcement No. 51 of 2024, releasing the "Export Control List of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China." This list, effective from December 1, 2024, includes items related to antimony, germanium, gallium, magnesium-based biomaterials, among others. In early December, the Ministry of Commerce announced that, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" and other laws and regulations, to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international non-proliferation obligations, it decided to strengthen export controls on related dual-use items to the US. The announcement specifies the following: 1. Prohibition of exports of dual-use items to US military users or for military purposes. 2. In principle, no licenses will be granted for the export of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the US; stricter end-user and end-use reviews will be implemented for the export of dual-use graphite items to the US. Any organization or individual from any country or region that violates the above regulations by transferring or providing related dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to US organizations or individuals will be held legally accountable. This announcement took effect upon its release. According to customs data, gallium exports in 2023 were approximately 41.2 mt, while customs data for January-November 2024 showed gallium exports of about 22.2 mt. It is expected that the full-year customs data for 2024 will show a significant decline compared to 2023. The policy announcements in November-December indicate that China's export control measures for metals such as gallium and germanium will remain stringent and may become even stricter. This suggests that the overall export volume of metals like gallium and germanium in the future (2025) may see a certain degree of decline. Fundamentals, supply side, in Q4 2024, germanium ore supply remained tight. Although there was a slight increase compared to Q3, the increase was relatively small. The main sources of raw materials remained constrained, with limited ore output. Some enterprises in south China planned to increase production in Q4, but progress was minimal due to raw material shortages. The nationwide germanium market production in 2024 is estimated at 150-160 mt, a decline compared to 2023. However, from the perspective of large manufacturers' inventories, levels remained medium to high, primarily allocated for fulfilling long-term contract obligations and future supply chain needs, with external sales still being conservative. The same applies to small and medium-sized manufacturers. From the perspective of downstream enterprises, inventory levels showed signs of bottoming out, and downstream stocking willingness was strong, particularly among manufacturers of lenses and optical components. Demand side, the infrared optics sector accounted for approximately 40%, with overall demand in 2024 increasing significantly, though it slightly declined near year-end in Q4. The semiconductor sector accounted for about 10%, with overall demand in 2024 showing significant growth and stable demand in Q4. The telecommunications fiber optics sector accounted for about 40%, with overall demand in 2024 remaining stable without significant growth, and Q4 demand falling short of expectations. Other sectors, such as PV and industrial production, accounted for about 10%, with Q4 demand declining. Imports and exports, customs data showed germanium exports of approximately 6.376 mt in Q3. In Q4, exports for October-November were about 3.467 mt, indicating that Q4 germanium exports are expected to decline compared to Q3. Prices, after reaching a peak of approximately 19,000 yuan/kg in Q3, market prices stabilized in Q4 as the supply and demand fundamentals adjusted. By late November to early December, as downstream demand declined, prices showed a pullback trend, though the extent of the pullback was moderate. By the end of December, germanium ingot prices were around 17,500 yuan/kg. Market outlook, due to the robust consumption growth in germanium's major downstream industries, particularly the strong growth expectations for germanium demand in the infrared and telecommunications fiber optics sectors, germanium prices are expected to remain favorable in the long term. The price range is likely to operate between 16,000-25,000 yuan/kg. Future focus, with the development of high-data computing and transmission industries such as autonomous driving and AI, germanium fiber optics, as an important material in the optical fiber communication field, play an irreplaceable role in enhancing fiber optic refractive index and optimizing transmission performance. The replacement of standard optical fibers with germanium fiber optics may lead to significant germanium demand, potentially impacting germanium market prices.

[SMM Analysis: Germanium Prices Continue to Decline] SMM, March 7: Recently, domestic germanium market prices have continued to pull back. Low-priced resources of germanium dioxide and germanium ingots have been emerging in the market, with germanium dioxide prices driving the weakening of germanium ingots. Overall, the germanium market prices have shown a continuous pullback trend. Currently, the average price of germanium ingots is 15,450 yuan/kg, and the average price of germanium dioxide is 9,550 yuan/kg.

[SMM Analysis: Germanium Prices Continue to Weaken] SMM, January 3: The domestic germanium market prices continue to pull back, with low-priced resources of germanium dioxide and germanium ingots emerging in the market. The price of germanium dioxide is driving the weakening of germanium ingots, and the overall germanium market prices are showing a continuous downward adjustment. Currently, the average price of germanium ingots is 17,250 yuan/kg, and the average price of germanium dioxide is 11,750 yuan/kg.

SMM April 11 Report: The domestic germanium market has stabilized recently, with the disappearance of low-priced germanium dioxide and ingot resources, signaling the market's entry into a phase of mutual price discovery between buyers and sellers.From the supply side, suppliers continue to increase shipments to reduce inventories and liquidate positions, though major producers maintain firm offers. On the demand front, procurement activity remains notably subdued across both infrared and fiber-optic sectors. Current SMM benchmark prices stand at RMB 15,400/kg for germanium ingots and RMB 9,550/kg for germanium dioxide.

Germanium is a critical material in the semiconductor industry due to its unique properties. This shiny metalloid shares many characteristics with silicon, but it stands out with a higher electron mobility, making it exceptionally effective in high-speed electronic applications. These properties make germanium indispensable in the fabrication of transistors, diodes, and other semiconductor devices that demand superior performance. Its ability to operate effectively at high frequencies further underscores its importance in advanced telecommunications and computing technologies.

SMM April 11 News: Recently, the domestic germanium market has remained stable, with low-priced resources of germanium dioxide and germanium ingots disappearing. The germanium market has entered a phase of mutual exploration between buyers and sellers. Supply side, sellers continued to increase shipments to reduce inventory and realize cash, but some large manufacturers stood firm on quotes. Demand side, whether in the infrared or fiber end-user sectors, the buyer's enthusiasm for purchasing remained significantly low. However, many manufacturers admitted that since the current germanium price has fallen to a low level, the tender prices for some germanium raw materials recently were not low either. Under the joint influence of supply and demand, the possibility of a deterioration in the fundamental supply-demand situation is relatively small, and the likelihood of further price declines for germanium ingots and germanium dioxide has also become very small. Therefore, the shipment strategy of manufacturers has recently shifted to standing firm on quotes and holding back sales. Currently, the average price of germanium ingots is 15,400 yuan/kg, and the average price of germanium dioxide is 9,550 yuan/kg.

[Plans to Invest 282 Million Yuan in Germanium Project for Space Solar Cells; Yunnan Germanium Says Capacity Expansion Is Urgently Needed] Yunnan Germanium announced plans for a total investment of 282 million yuan to implement the "Germanium Wafer Construction Project for Space Solar Cells." Specifically, the project is expected to be carried out by Zhongke Xinyuan, which will lease factory buildings within the existing production site, adding 115 units (sets) of major process equipment and auxiliary facilities. The construction period is expected to last 18 months. Based on the existing capacity, new capacity will be added, reaching an annual production capacity of 1.25 million germanium wafers (calculated as 4-inch equivalents) by year-end 2025. Upon project completion, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 2.5 million germanium wafers. The funding sources will include self-owned funds and loans from financial institutions.

SMM January 23: Macro factors, on November 15, with approval from the State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, in conjunction with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Cryptography Administration, issued Announcement No. 51 of 2024, releasing the "Export Control List of Dual-Use Items of the People's Republic of China." This list, effective from December 1, 2024, includes items related to antimony, germanium, gallium, magnesium-based biomaterials, among others. In early December, the Ministry of Commerce announced that, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Export Control Law of the People's Republic of China" and other laws and regulations, to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, it decided to strengthen export controls on related dual-use items to the US. The announcement specifies the following: 1. Prohibition of exports of dual-use items to US military users or for military purposes. 2. In principle, no licenses will be granted for the export of dual-use items related to gallium, germanium, antimony, and superhard materials to the US; stricter end-user and end-use reviews will be implemented for the export of dual-use graphite items to the US. Any organization or individual in any country or region that violates the above provisions by transferring or providing related dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to US organizations or individuals will be held legally accountable. This announcement took effect upon its release. According to customs data, gallium exports in 2023 were approximately 45 mt, while customs data for January-November 2024 indicates gallium exports of around 54 mt. It is expected that the full-year customs data for 2024 will show significant growth compared to 2023. However, the policy announcements in November-December indicate that China's export control measures for metals such as gallium and germanium will remain stringent, or even become stricter. This suggests a potential decline in the overall export volume of gallium and germanium in the future (2025). Fundamentally, from the supply side, in Q4, with the commissioning of gallium production lines by manufacturers such as Huajin, domestic gallium production continued to show a gradual upward trend. Given that the overall industry gross profit margin for gallium remains relatively high (estimated at around 40%), there is potential for further production growth in 2025 as output from manufacturers such as Pioneer Chongqing and Xinfa Fangyuan enters the market. For the overall production in 2024, the domestic gallium market's annual production is estimated to reach 770 mt, representing a slight increase compared to 2023. Demand side, in Q4, domestic demand slightly declined compared to Q3, mainly due to reduced gallium usage in the magnetic materials industry and decreased gallium consumption caused by lower PV production. Gallium consumption in the semiconductor sector remained relatively stable. For 2024 overall, the magnetic materials industry is estimated to consume around 145 mt of gallium, the PV industry approximately 80 mt, and the semiconductor sector about 330 mt. Including other industries, the actual gallium consumption in 2024 is estimated at around 630 mt, while the apparent consumption is estimated at 720 mt. This indicates that the gallium industry is currently in an inventory buildup phase, which has led to a weaker downward trend in gallium prices in Q4. Market trend forecasts suggest that domestic gallium prices have shown an upward trend within a year after export controls were implemented, reflecting a certain degree of healthy self-circulation development in the domestic gallium industry. The price decline in Q4 was mainly influenced by reduced gallium consumption in the magnetic materials and PV industries, which is a short-term factor. The long-term impact remains unclear for now. However, the growth outlook for the magnetic materials industry remains optimistic. For instance, the annual compound growth rate of China's NEV demand for NdFeB permanent magnets is expected to reach 41%, with NdFeB permanent magnet production in China growing by 8-10% annually, and demand for NdFeB permanent magnets in China's variable frequency air conditioners increasing by 10-15% annually. Therefore, as long as there is no complete substitution of gallium in the magnetic materials industry, demand for gallium metal is expected to remain relatively stable. The same applies to the PV industry. Looking ahead to 2025, after a year of supply and demand adjustments, gallium prices are expected to operate within a short-term range of 1,900-2,300 yuan/kg. Issues Worth Noting 1. The greatest uncertainty still lies in changes in exports (application time for export qualifications, approval conditions, and other unknown factors), as well as the development speed of the semiconductor industry, which could impact both domestic and export prices. 2. The future development trends of the domestic semiconductor optoelectronics industry, including chip R&D, lithography machine manufacturing, and other currently popular sectors. 3. Whether the traditional stockpiling peak season for the semiconductor and magnetic materials industries will arrive as expected before and after the Chinese New Year holiday.

SMM News on June 17: According to SMM, Guangxi Yusheng Germanium Industry High-Tech Co., Ltd. has launched a public tender for the sale of its germanium ingots and germanium dioxide starting today. According to official information, this batch of goods includes 1,000 kg of germanium dioxide and 1,000 kg of zone-refined germanium ingots, all of which are spot cargo. The cargo pick-up time must be before June 30, 2025, and the content will be subject to laboratory analysis. The minimum bid quantity is 300 kg for germanium dioxide and 200 kg for zone-refined germanium ingots. The lowest bid prices are 10,600 yuan/kg for germanium dioxide and 16,000 yuan/kg for zone-refined germanium ingots. The delivery method is self pick-up by the buyer, and the freight will be borne by the buyer. The bidding period ends on June 22, 2025. The email address for submitting bids is: 18207781271@163.com. Contact person: Mr. Peng, phone number: 13768181116.